*Massive FLIP FLOP* A Critical Warning to Investors.

think the Market's rigged well I'll tell

you what's rigged in this video I'm

going to break down what the H double

hockey sticks is not just going on in

the stock and bond market right now but

we'll talk fed and we'll talk a lot of

the other stuff going on cuz there's a

lot going on the first thing obviously

we have to cover is this this is a

disaster you know what this chart is

well let me put it this way let's say

you're a guy uh whose name we won't

mention we'll say that person's name is

schmill

schackman and that person goes short the

treasury bond market right about here

where this green line is okay so in

order to go short the bond market you

actually want this line to go up because

this is a chart of yields just know up

means you're making money on this case

okay so you go short here and all of a

sudden the Market's not working out for

you so what do you do you really start

going on social media around the last

few weeks of August and and you start

pumping this idea that you know what

rates are going to have to go quote well

above 5% they're going to smoke through

5% I want you to keep that in mind now

okay well above 5% that's a very

important line okay rates are going to

go well above 5% there's so much

inflation that's going to happen from

the wars and everything is so horrible

in the economy we've had so much

inflation now we're going to have even

more rates are going to Skyrocket now

this schmill schackman has a lot of

clout on social media but not just on

social media most importantly amongst

institutional investors those are hedge

funds Pension funds trading firms firms

that are like hm okay we know Market

manipulation is illegal like we can't

all do the same thing and coordinate

because we would be manipulating the

market but if we all happen to have the

same opinion that that we're talking

about on social media then maybe that's

okay that's basically kind of how it

works okay somebody has an idea on

social media they're they have a history

of kind of being the person to follow

and then what happens that amplifies

when's the last time this schill

schackman did this well how about coid

in the depths of Co you have a bunch of

long positions but then you buy a bunch

of weekly puts or really short-term puts

don't know how short-term but very

short-term puts maybe 20 $30 million of

short-term puts you know you got a CNBC

interview coming out and so you go on

that CNBC interview and what do you do

you smash the economy to Smither by

talking about how during coid at Peak

fear and you're a an expert what should

the entire Market do everyone shut

everything down for 30 days sure well

what are you going to do when you shut

manufacturing and businesses and

everything down for 30 days you

literally take a third of company

profits earnings away you remove that

and then you create longer term damage

as well right so you know the likelihood

is if people resonated with your opinion

stocks would plummet in the short term

that would give you good profit on those

short-term options which you could turn

20 40 50 million into a billion dollars

roughly what happened with schmill

schackman roughly okay we're rounding a

little bit here for the purposes of

brevity and then you could use that to

buy the dip when prices are low and then

you make money both ways you make money

on the way down you make money on the

way out now who makes the most money

well the person everyone's folling

following and in this case it's Bill

akman schmill schackman what it's

everybody knows okay so because of that

reputation people like damn that was

kind of messed up but it was also kind

of shrewd see we don't want to say

that's illegal it's not illegal to have

an opinion right like I could sit here

here and go I think treasuries are a

great thing to buy because I think as

the inflation that we're seeing the rate

of inflation Falls I think bonds will

cap out somewhere and then they will

start skyrocketing I obviously can't

make that guarantee but that's my belief

right I think longer term inflation

it'll take more time it'll take patience

to come down but it'll roll over that's

because every single day almost every

day I'm studying company earnings calls

especially with our course members and

we're like man all of these companies

are like we had a lot of inflation but

now we're not seeing new inflation or

raising prices 1 to 2% look at some of

the Staples whether it's Target Walmart

Pepsi look at the Autos well that's like

pure price reductions you just have to

look at Tesla do that obviously Autos

are very cyclical when rates go up car

prices go down and so this latest surge

is one of the reasons probably Elon Musk

is so depressed is because he's reading

all of the echo chamber stuff on Twitter

I highly believe that he's reading the

echo chamber stuff on Twitter that

yields are going to keep going up up up

up up Bill schackman is somebody people

respect and so you even get people like

Elon Musk who go oh man this is

depressing that means we're going to

have to cut prices even more I

personally think Elon Musk should have a

formula a formula where he's like look

for every uh I don't know uh 50 basis

points that rates go up prices come down

minus 1500 bucks right and so then it's

formulaic then you tell buyers hey look

if rates go up another 50 we're going to

drop the price, 1500 bucks rates went up

5% guess what we drop prices 15 grand

okay you have a formula now you're

transparent to your investors and your

customers but you know we we generally

don't get the most ideal communication

at Tesla that doesn't remove me as an

investor from Tesla I just I just know

that and then you buckle up because you

know you're going in for volatility

because you know communication is

designed to help smooth problems over

problems will always occur at companies

that's very normal communication is is

the solution to everything when people

go dark it's scary scary times anyway so

Bill schackman what does he do so Bill

schackman over here says you know what

uh I think we can squeeze this bond

market a little bit more in other words

we're going to short the bond market

short the bond market the line goes up

great so you short the bond market over

here line goes up you start profiting

right but at first it goes down so then

you circulate on Twitter

your thesis about how everything's going

to hell and you're going to blow through

5% okay we know that then what do you do

right here right before yields get to

5% all right we've covered our position

we are no longer short we are now long

bonds and then you make money when this

line goes down the line is confusing

because it's upside down because they

yields but the point is Bill Amman

basically perfectly played this okay

created The Narrative made sure to

benefit when this line goes up says this

Line's going to go well past

5% gets to 5% dumps out okay that is

very normal this is the same thing that

happens with oil all the time and I want

you to know this when companies have

price targets it's all Bs because what

they're really most of the time doing I

and I can't say that as with certainty I

want to be clear a lot of this

everything I'm saying I just want you

know it's my opinion okay uh some of the

the historical contents I'm really rough

around the edges just to keep this nice

and simple and smooth but I'm trying to

teach and provide lessons here when

somebody says look I think oils going to

150 they're probably going to dump their

long bets on oil when it gets to like

125 okay because everybody else is just

going to front run them as it gets close

to 150 and then by the nature of that

it'll never get to 150 it's the same

thing here okay you go we're going to

blow past 5% and then what happens as

soon as you get close to 5% people start

wondering like are are we really going

to blow past it and then you're one of

the first people out and then once

you're one of the first people out what

happens oh wow the 10-year treasury down

to

4.84% it's somewhat dare I say cunning

okay like cunning the definition of it

is here having or showing skill in

achieving one's Ends by deceit or

evasion being Artful being crafty I

don't think Bill Amman is purposefully

deceitful but let's just say do we

really think that he wanted or thought

everything was going to lock down for 30

days no that and I don't think he

believed that either so that is somewhat

deceitful for when when you're like oh

yeah we should do this you know that's

not going to happen so you place bets

that things are going to move towards

that direction and then you bail on them

before you ever get there because you

know that end goal that end reality is

probably quite unlikely I feel like it's

similar here the end goal of blowing

past well past 5% on the 10e treasury I

don't think it's extremely likely and I

don't think that bill Amman thinks it's

extremely likely either maybe 5 and a

quarter but do we think it's going to go

to 6 or 7% the way some of the social

media talk is framed no of course not so

then you kind of evade that reality I

think that's the better way to put it

right you evade the truth which is I

don't really think it's going to blow

past five and I'm a cover when I get

close to five but I'm going to say that

I think it's going to blow past because

theoretically it could so therefore I'm

not lying and then you cover before when

you make your tendies that's cunning

that is like in my opinion the

definition of cunning again I'm not here

to say anybody's being doing anything

illegal or whatever I'm just saying it's

cunning okay now what does it mean for

us well as an individual investor it's

so important to remember that we are the

daily victims of these sort of

bets I'm taking a lot of series and

finra and SCC exams and I in my opinion

what I'm learning about the institutions

is when you peel curtain back a little

bit everybody's a human everybody's just

trying to do the best thing they can for

themselves and that's important to

remember right we peel back the court

and it's like oh well you know what that

makes sense Bill Amman is doing what is

best for his fund he's going to play his

clout and he's going to play the market

with that is that market manipulation

it's debatable anyway point is we as

individual investors have to see through

through this this volatility and it's

very very difficult because we're like

crap you know we see treasury yield

Skyrocket like this and people are

asking me Kevin they're like hey what

does this mean for inflation does this

mean markets all of a sudden think that

inflation is is going to be a lot higher

Are We Wrong about positioning for an

environment when inflation is going to

be lower you know is inflation all of a

sudden taking off are we missing

something you know when we look at the

the 5year break even inflation chart it

all it's all skyrocketed following uh

bill amman's beted over here on the

right even the inflation expectations

are up does this mean inflation is back

which if inflation is back some of the

long Investments that you might be

making for when interest rates come down

n phase Tesla uh some of the cyclicals

right these are going to be your

manufacturers uh your consumer spend

stocks if inflation comes back up those

are just going to keep getting screwed

and that's problematic because you don't

want that uh you know but when you

actually look at the underlying of

inflation what do we see copper prices

coming way down we're not as low as

where we were we might never be that low

again right and that's important to

remember is we've had a lot of inflation

at least 18% inflation and consider for

a moment what that means if previously

we were trading at about 6200 bucks for

copper let's go 6200 time 1.18 you

should be at about 7,300 bucks so to

normalize back to an inflation adjusted

level we're we're getting close you know

copper should probably go down about

7948 uh probably about another 8% and

then we're there they we're back at an

inflation adjusted level that 18% again

not back to these low levels but the

point is copper is way off its highs why

because production is slowing the

cyclicals the manufacturing these things

are slowing golly imagine if it weren't

for the chips act or some of the

inflation reduction act stimulus

packages for electric vehicles or solar

panels or manufacturing these sectors

would be even more in the toilet than

they already are they're already in the

toilet they'd be even more in the toilet

now all of that investment that's coming

via the stimulus checks and we could

debate the politics of that separately

right whether we agree or disagree with

that the reality is there the stimul

checks are going to chips to

manufacturing to electric vehicles to

solar whether you hate those things or

not that is where the stimulus checks

are going okay those will likely pay

massive dividends in the future we can't

guarantee that I hold bullish positions

in these I have to be transparent about

that I'm not short the market you know

so I could be equally biased like Bill

schackman and that's fair but I think

it's important for all of us

individually to say okay break evens

exploded treasury skyrocketed did the

inflation narrative break the answer in

my opinion is no the inflation narrative

didn't break inflation was very high now

it is growing much slower nothing has

changed in that reality the only thing

that's changed is you've got

geopolitical turmoil with Israel Hamas

Hezbollah Iran that has led to this idea

that oh my gosh well when Russia invaded

uh uh Ukraine weat prices skyrocketed

and that led to supply chain challenges

for automotives and other aspects and

that led to more inflation true so what

a perfect narrative to hit your bet on

and make everybody think that inflation

is really really bad and treasury Ys

have a lot more work to do you make your

bet as soon as you play your game your

cunning game you cut and you're out and

you make your money great you did what

you needed to do for your investors did

that change the narrative that we talk

about here no now is this me putting on

rose-colored glasses no not at all if

anything I think I'm putting on glasses

and it's like oh that's that's a ugly

reality o I don't like the look of that

because it it feels manipulative right

it makes us as humans and individuals

feel somewhat powerless to these crazy

fluctuations that happen in the stock

market and that's quite frankly the

reality is we don't have control over

this Insanity now it's also important to

remember though that Mohammad Alan I

think he made a great point he talks

about in the fed's latest Financial

stability report released Friday that

treasury market liquidity is really

really important for the financial

system and we keep taking on more debt

as a country so we need people to buy

treasuries if people are manipulating

the treasury market and all of a sudden

people stop buying treasuries because

they think the value of them are going

to keep going down the the government

can't fund the government can't pay its

bills this is bad like like the debt or

not again I think fiat's all garbage

it's all going to blow up at some point

in the future I don't think it'll be in

our lifetimes so right now we have the

rules of our game okay this is the game

we play by we deal with paper money yes

this is yes yes yes it's all

okay we get it they could print

this stuff all day long but the point is

and and yes the debt is unsustainable

and it's way too high is it a problem

yes are we going to fix it anytime soon

no so when we consider these realities

the government's going to have to keep

borrowing money well in order to keep

borrowing money you have to have a

functioning treasury market and so

Muhammad here is making the argument we

have to get back to like a normal Market

you're in a position where the Federal

Reserve is dumping treasury bonds onto

the market if everybody tomorrow said

screw this I ain't touching treasuries

cuz the is dumping them all onto the

market their values are just going to go

down if people start not believing in

the long-term value of these anymore

then interest rates will Skyrocket the

10% and the whole system will collapse

so there's a balance here there's a

balance it's the same thing as the

balance that you're seeing in Israel

there's this this belief that uh is you

know and when the war started this was

very very commonly believed that Israel

was going to invade and then there were

debates about how long this Invasion

would be you know some parts might be

Blitz Creek style some uh Parts might be

long incursion now I've been saying that

hopefully it goes fast because the

faster Israel can control what they need

to or satisfy their mission the less

innocent lives are lost that's all I

care about right now is innocent Israeli

lives and innocent civilians inside of

Palestine these these countries are not

the problem the problem is Israel versus

Hamas terrorist groups and cells Within

pales time if those terrorist groups are

not present and Israel walks in to no

resistance people stop dying I'm tired

of being on Telegram and seeing dead or

dismembered children every freaking day

it's horrible it's not just children

though it's men it's women it's adult

it's grandparents it's cousins it's

uncles it's disgusting like it is so

humanly wrong now obviously it's so

wrong for Hamas to do what they did but

my point is all of this in my opinion

needs to chill and we have to figure

this out you know what we need we need

like a treaty of West failure okay this

is when the Holy Roman Empire and the

French they were slaying each other for

like what 30 years the Treaty of West

faia ended the 30 Years War and that's

interesting to some extent because I was

born in west faia but anyway so so you

look at the Treaty of West faia which

was signed in us and MOA uh these two

parts of it and together it was

considered the piece of of West faia

this was 30 years of this sort of

cultural and religious battling that

ended

finally and it's very similar to what's

going on in the Middle East now it's

cultural it's land it's it's religious

and it's terrible and it's end now the

good news is you are seeing some of the

Reigns get pulled in a little bit on how

aggressive Israel will be or continue to

be with their ground incursion now

Israel is pointing out that well if

we're too aggressive Hezbollah is going

to attack us more from the north that's

via Lebanon or well if we're too

aggressive we might lose hostages and

Hamas is starting to release hostages

maybe we can get them to do more of that

and uh you know well we don't want to

see more Israeli soldiers die you know

why this is happening you want to know

the truth of why this is happening I'll

be very very clear with you there is one

massive reason this is happening the

United States now you might be

disillusioned with the white house and

our government who's really running it

you know you might be disillusioned with

Trump I I politics sucks but the reality

is as broken as our country is this is

still the best freaking country in the

world and you know what America the

United States

realizes that the benefit of an allout

ground incursion in in Palestine is not

a good idea in the Gaza Strip because

Israel's not going to be the new

government in that region Muslims and uh

individuals uh who are you know uh

racially Arabic they are never going to

be governed by Israel it's never going

to work so I think you have the United

States and this is my speculation look

we will fund your military we will fund

your bombs we will fund your Iron Dome

Israel but you need to chill you need to

let Aid in from the south you don't need

to invade yes we are going to help you

get the hostages but at the same time we

also need to try to negotiate with the

terrorists nobody's going to say that

publicly but I believe that's exactly

what's happening but it will never be

made public because that would be

disgusting oh no no the public stances

we don't negotiate with ch come on

they're going to take every possible

tool that they can to make

sure

that innocent lives are spared and

that's my goal that's that's my hope at

least uh or I shouldn't say my goal I

mean I'm not involved in it but that's

the goal I believe America has so what

does that mean it actually goes back to

the beginning of the video where we're

talking about look we don't have control

about all of this insane volatility what

we have control over is is our own daily

lives people are always like Kevin how

how how am I supposed to feel okay

working for you know xll per day when I

lost three or four times that in the

stock market in a single day and they

you have to separate yourself from that

you have to every single day when other

people are getting sad and depressed you

have to put one foot in front of the

other and keep going it's really hard

you have to like do you do you work less

hard because your stocks are going up no

just keep working ignore the stock

market volatility now if you want to

diversify I'm a big fan of you

considering house Haack go check out

house act now accepting investments from

non accredit investors at house act.com

read the offering circular watch the

video all that good stuff but look at

this I actually think we have a massive

problem going on in our society Alaska

Air pilot arrested for trying to turn

off the plane engines mid-flight this

was a pilot who was not one of the two

pilots flying the plane but they were in

the jump seat like apparently they

reached over and tried to turn off the

plane engines while they were mid-flight

yesterday Sunday and uh and and the

pilot Bas probably beat the crap out of

him and subdued him thankfully and

nobody nobody was hurt other than that

individual but you know what's going on

in America right now a depression

epidemic finances are tough inflation is

high relationships are skewed by social

media every chick on social media has

the beautify filter on basically okay

like it is it is so impossible not to go

on social media and feel like a loser

everybody else is doing better but I'll

tell you every single person no matter

who you are has problems and challenges

and has feelings even Elon Musk and we

know that and I bag on Elon Musk too and

I'm not trying to kick somebody when

they're down I'm trying to send a

message and speak on behalf of the Tesla

employees who are reaching out to me

going Kevin this makes us feel like

trash we need better leadership okay

that's different right me bagging on the

Tesla leadership is basically trying to

be somewhat of with the small voice that

I have an activist of like Tesla get

your act together get it

together properly communicate to the

expectations that people should have to

the community all the Tesla Bulls who

were mad at me they're like wait wait

Kevin well why don't you just sell

you're just a flip flopper and I'm like

that's not true I mean I do flipflop I'm

actually wearing flipflops right now uh

so yeah I changed my mind when there's a

better option I'm not flipping on Tesla

if anything I'm like hey we should be

buying more

Tesla but the leadership creates

problems in the short term people like

come on Kevin why be upset this is a buy

the dip opportunity because you lose the

ability to attract employees even if you

lose the next five best Engineers

because the CEO is a knucklehead and

maybe those five Engineers are are gay

or they're lesbian or they're they're

Tran uh or or or their uh you know

whatever they they have they have

certain

uh beliefs that don't align with Elon

musk's belief uh system and now all of a

sudden because of their personal beliefs

Tesla doesn't get that talent because of

the stock volatility or the leadership

at the company or the lack of

communication and Clarity at the company

then everyone net loses the executives

lose the shareholders lose the customers

lose everyone net loses from the loss of

that talent that goes somewhere else

that is stupid that's why I think when

Tesla has asked hey how many cyber

trucks are you going to deliver this

year and Elon Musk punts the question

yes I know other companies punt the

question too but why aren't we just

blunt like let's be blunt look hey we're

going to have a delivery event we hope

we can deliver maybe 10 a few dozen

cyber trucks and we're going to ramp

from there it's going to take time and

as we've learned a Tesla things take a

little longer but we think this is a

revolutionary car that in the long term

will be the best selling vehicle in the

world whatever you could say that right

but be honest about The Upfront you know

people like oh c you know Elon who

sounded really honest really does it

sound really honest to dodge questions

about what's happening in the near term

does it sound really honest to tell the

Mexican Government hey you know what

we're going to build a gigafactory here

and then on the earnings call say by the

way we're going to slow walk this

because we're uncertain about the

economy what do you think that does for

every other freaking country around the

world you know Elon visited Taiwan and

India and all these other countries

suggesting maybe we'll build a factory

here it's almost like it's like a an an

ego trip oh yeah everybody lay out the

red carpet for me I might build a

factory here that's great when you

actually do it but then when you say I'm

going to build a factory in in Mexico

and then you tell the world on an ear

call you're going to slow walk it what

are you doing you're telling all those

other countries ah maybe it's good we're

not doing business with him right now

you know we'll get him when the Market's

good but uh he doesn't deserve our

support when the economy is bad I don't

know man like I like again I think there

is depression everywhere one of the

reasons though we do have more

depression truly a social media in my

opinion I think shorts make everybody's

lives seem so perfect it's very

dangerous I think uh the beautify stuff

that we see with with women or people of

the opposite Sexes bad people only show

good stuff generally on social media

it's not good and when you get on

Twitter it's a Cess pool it's almost all

negative sorry like I have a hard time

going on Twitter and not feeling like

the world is about to end so I like to

try to be a voice of reason you know

people are like oh but Kevin you should

be posting on all platforms you know

what maybe the only platform I belong on

is YouTube and quite frankly I'm okay

with that because I love it here I get

to share my perspective and hopefully it

helps you thank you for watching we'll

see you in the next one goodbye why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

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