Why the Stock Market is Falling

hey everyone meet kevin here why the

heck is the stock market falling all of

a sudden we just had a two-week run

we've had a lot of euphoria stocks have

hit all-time new highs bitcoin has hit

new highs everything has been going to

the absolute moon with the exception of

insurtech paypal and pinterest but don't

worry about those those are smaller

positions they might have the larger

positions have all literally gone to the

moon a firm etsy and face

tesla you name it all of them have gone

to the moon this saturday i put a

million

fifty dollars into that that's a million

and fifty thousand dollars such a weird

word to say uh into a bitcoin on

saturday at sixty one thousand eight

hundred dollars it just hit all-time

highs of sixty eight thousand eight

hundred dollars i put over a million

dollars into voyager digital at twelve

dollars and thirty cents i did take a

little bit of profits but with the six

hundred thousand dollars that i have

left in it we have now seen that almost

double as voyager digital has gone

almost up to 21 a share there has been

some insane euphoria so what's going on

and why is it that all of a sudden the

indices are turning red well let's talk

about this but first i want to give a

quick shout out to those of you in my

course member alive streams i appreciate

talking to you every single day

this was a screenshot from actually

today's course member live stream where

frank a realtor said yesterday in the

live stream the course member live

stream kevin said might be time to take

some profits sold all my individual

shares uh and then dollar sign dollar

sign dollar sign because today the

market is uh rotating uh to the downside

a little bit now obviously frank trading

a little bit i would never sell out of

my entire position but it's worth noting

that if you're interested in having sort

of a private dialogue what's going on in

the market and uh doing a q a back and

forth or just being or hearing some more

detail on my thoughts or explaining

myself a little bit more check out the

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below alright folks so why is the market

slipping a little bit let's take a look

here quickly at the indices so you can

just get an idea you've got volatility

that went up almost to six percent

you've got the indices down a third to

half of a percent russell doing the

worst russell was almost down a full one

percent why is this happening what is

going on well if you subscribe to the

youtube channel which hopefully you do

you already know that i suggested there

was a potential coming market crash

catalyst now some of the commentary here

was from folks who are like oh my gosh

kevin why are you always trying to talk

about a market crash the market's green

and here you are trying to make the

market crash again yada yada like these

these random sort of miscellaneous

counts fortunately those comments were

the minority but they missed the point

and this is sometimes the stupidity that

you see

in miscellaneous corners of the internet

the best time to talk about the

potential for a market crash is

literally when the market is zooming so

that way you know

what's happening when it's happening and

you're not getting blindsided folks i

kid you not you could watch this this

video was posted november 5th that is

four days ago that was friday that's two

trading days ago not monday but friday

there's only one trading day in between

that and what i said in this video is

the coming market crash catalyst

was uncertainty regarding the federal

reserve if there's any indication that

it's not jerome powell the market was

likely to sell off well folks i kid you

not i said this on friday i kid you not

this is the headline today biden meets

with powell brennard at white house as

he weighs fed pick and the fact that the

president hasn't made a decision on

central bank leadership and the fact

that he's interviewing somebody other

than powell somebody that even if you

don't like him at least you know him you

know where he stands

you know his position on monetary policy

and you feel comfortable

maybe not uh you know endorsing of but

you feel comfortable in knowing that you

know where his head is right you have

certainty in what jerome powell believes

jerome powell is very very consistent

he's a centrist he's not super far

hawkish and he's not super far dovish

he's a centrist he has this and this is

like in monetary policy terms not like

left or right like democrat or

republican uh and uh he look here's a

quick summary of what he thinks he

believes

that inflation is caused mostly by

transitory forces the transitory is

lasting longer and it's larger than

expected we have the inflation we know

this we have big inflation right now but

once we get back to

fixing our supply chains and

manufacturing processes become more

efficient and all of a sudden we

potentially have an oversupply of

products things that have been

moving uh inflation up like used cars

chips uh you know clothing whatever

these sort like wedding dresses i don't

know why that one always comes up in

inflationary uh issues or with

inflationary issues or even food

some of these things might have the

opportunity to come back down this is

what jerome powell believes jerome

powell believes that we're going to

taper between now here in november all

the way through about june july of 2022

and then at that point we'll have

another seven or eight cpi reports

between here and there of course they

use the pce not the cpi don't worry

about it it's a tiny or minor difference

if very very similar pci comes out like

two or three weeks later it's kind of

annoying that it comes out so much later

but anyway

and then the federal reserve will

determine whether or not to lift off or

increase interest rates which we expect

interest rates could go up once in the

second half of 2022 about 60 percent of

market participants believe we're going

to see rates go up uh in

june of 2022 and then we're expecting

two rate increases in 2023 and three

rate increases in 2024 spread out so

that would get us back up to uh almost

two percent for the federal reserve uh

funds rate so that's the expectation

that we have at the moment now when if

you get if you throw in a new person to

the mix okay well how does this person

think you know what what what's

what do we know about them well it's

actually kind of tough if you go look at

the history here this is an older piece

here from 2015

and it's worth noting that in 2015

is listed

here as a former treasury under

secretary for internal international

affairs in the obama administration has

given relatively few public speeches

this is what i've noticed as well gives

very few speeches you type into youtube

and you try to hear more from her you

don't get a lot of interviews from her

of the interviews you have most of them

are dated and uh but and then bloomberg

here says from what we've heard she's

been fairly doves dovish but in 2019

reuters listed them all

here as either doves or hawks and you

can see she's right here in the middle

as listed as a centrist

along with jerome powell but the

potential problem with this is because

she doesn't give a lot of speeches and

because she's listed as a centrist

we have even less clarity on which way

she actually leans it's look if you have

a hawk it's obvious which way they're

gonna lean they're gonna go let's raise

rates right away if you have a dove

let's wait right or dove

uh but anyway when you have a centrist

it's like ah crap they could go either

way we don't have a lot of interviews

and what we have instead is a lot of

uncertainty and that's what the market

does not like uncertainty so when is joe

biden going to actually pick so this

uncertainty can end my prediction

and and yes

uh so far i was correct about my

prediction that the next market pullback

catalyst was going to be uncertainty

around the federal reserve it literally

came within two days i'm not trying to

pat myself on the back this is just what

happens if you have your head in

newspapers and market dues every

freaking day you uh

you can

oftentimes see things with with i would

say a more skewed likelihood of accuracy

right i don't want to say that i have a

crystal ball i don't uh but when we look

at this

and you look at sort of the way the

market functions and you get good at

doing this you you have a greater chance

of being right more often i'd say 70 to

80 sometimes even 80 to 90

more likely to be correct than wrong

which is good because that helps you

with your investments as well

and it's important to analyze and know

what fear catalysts are so you know is

this a buy the dip opportunity or what

we'll talk about that in a moment so

uh when when when my expectation

is that the cpi report comes out

wednesday then jerome powell attached

from joe biden's going to break down

this cpi report probably his staff is

going to do that i doubt he's going to

read the report uh they will

finalize their discussions i wouldn't be

surprised if we end up getting some kind

of answer on the federal reserve

nomination by the end of the day on

friday part of me thinks that joe biden

is kind of going this direction of oh

let's potentially interview a centrist

woman because this has been a big

priority for joe biden is diversifying

uh how many males we have in in

leadership positions uh and getting more

women involved in in higher positions

remember treasury secretary uh woman

janet yellen kamala harris

a female vp right these these are big

things uh and so it's not a surprise

uh i think legacy wise uh it's you know

we've already had janet yellen as a

woman chair uh person so i don't know if

it's necessary the market's reaction

today could actually reiterate that joe

biden should just stick with powell it

wouldn't surprise me but this i'm less

confident in it wouldn't surprise me if

joe biden ends up and i put like a 60

confidence on this wouldn't surprise me

if joe biden interviewed her but then

it's like ah just kidding we're gonna

stick with jay powell for now

and uh you know maybe next time if i get

re-elected i'll uh well

you'll be the top contender at that time

but for now we'll stick with jay pal uh

and uh yeah because of the market

turmoil that we've seen after after we

discuss the potential for this uh this

shake-up so to speak uh so that's an

expectation i have i i'm thinking by

friday we should know

i wouldn't be surprised if it's after

market closes

if it's not by friday uh i think the

market and the market doesn't get an

answer by monday the market's going to

freak out a little bit more and we could

potentially see the buy the dip

extend until joe biden responds so

if joe biden makes the decision soon or

maybe he accelerates his decision

because he sees the market sort of

rotating down uh then uh then obviously

that would be a change keep in mind uh

when the stock market was through going

through its euphoric rally there were a

lot of uh thank you brandon's trending

on things like twitter and and a lot of

them were saying oh thanks joe biden for

the record stock market look we we know

it's generally not presidents that are

causing this they have an impact but uh

the market cycles in my opinion are

relatively independent of of the

presidency but there are definitely

pluses and minuses depending on that

that occur from presidencies uh because

of uncertainties within their

administration right like when we had

the budget deficit and debt ceiling

crisis because democrats couldn't figure

out what the hell they wanted to do you

know that that is a fear catalyst and

that leads to uncertainty in the market

and that's when you get by the dip

opportunity so

am i buying this dip uh we know that

tesla tesla dipped a good chunk today uh

we see uh you know lemonade paypal uh

lucid a lot a firm a lot of companies

dipping today am i buying the dip no not

yet

this is this is not a dip for me to buy

uh i am very very very patient in this

regard i am also slightly in margin

about uh two percent

not that big of a deal if we got a

serious dip i'd be more than happy to uh

pull from margin and and go shopping but

numbers would have to be

vastly different from where they are now

we're barely coming off all-time highs

here and uh it's way too early for me to

buy the dip although i you all know that

i am a by the dipper and if you want to

get notifications for every single time

i buy or sell something not as uh you

know instructions for what you to do but

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again and folks thank you for watching

thank you for subscribing share the

video if you found this helpful we'll

see in the next one thanks so much

goodbye

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