This Panic Chart Explains the Bitcoin Drop — And Why Fear May Already Be Spent

This this chart tells us

where fear is happening, where panic is

happening and what usually comes next.

Um, so this uh this comes from glass

node and it shows

Bitcoin's price in black and something

called the capital metric in red.

At the end of this video, you'll

understand what capital actually means.

The red spikes matter more than the

price itself and why the recent price

drop may be emotional

not structural.

This as you usual is about behavior.

Let's start with um let's let's

understand the chart first because I

think that is uh that is more important

to the black line. It's the that's what

everybody wants to see. Fine. This is

absolute right. This is not relative

and it moves up and down. It grabs

attention and emotion and all that. So

the left axis show the price level and

of course now you have the red line. So

the red line is what's what's more

important here. The capitulation metric

you don't need to know the math behind

it. Uh and I will tell you everything

that I do the math is hiding behind it.

Black swan is all about unforeseen risk.

Risk is equal to math. I'm sorry to say

for you to understand risk, you need to

understand math. Basically,

what's important with the capital

matrix, it's what it measures. And it

tracks forced selling moments when

people are uncommonly deciding. They are

they are giving up. Don't forget the

thumbs up. Don't forget to subscribe. Uh

help support this channel, which is a

lot of work.

This includes panic selling, stop-loss

cascades and liquidations. In simple

terms, red spikes equal emotional exits.

Okay? And the right axis, the right

shows the size of that panic. Okay? And

so how so price tells you what happened

and capital tells you how people felt.

Now watch how the chart behaves over

time. This is about Bitcoin. When the

red line is low and flat, people are not

panicking. Obviously, selling is mostly

voluntary.

Market is stable even if prices move. As

you could see, they went up, they went

down, they went up. Step two, sudden

spikes. When the red line shoots up,

fear explodes, force selling happens,

and the weak exit fast. These spikes do

not last long. Banice is you know panic

is intense but short

aftermath when capitalization fades you

know selling pressure dries up and the

markets often stabilizes and sometime it

rallies sometime it chops and but panic

is gone. So you could have price down as

you could see with no panic.

Okay. So let's walk left to right.

Early 2024. As you could see, price

rises, pulls back, chop sideway. The red

line is mostly quiet. This tells us

something important.

Uh pullbacks were controlled, not

emotional. Mid 2024, you see small red

bumps starting a little bit. These are

mini panics.

It coincide with a big of a drop as

well. Short-term traders get shaken out,

but nothing breaks structurally. late

2024 to early 2025,

capital capitulation stays low. That

means that the move wasn't driven by

panic and sellers were mostly absent and

confidence was rising. That's a healthy

trend.

Mid 2025, we see noticeable

red spikes. This tells us volatility

increased

but price didn't collapse and that

matters a lot. Now focus on the right

side of the chart. This is where things

get dramatic. We see massive red spikes.

This is not normal selling. This is this

is look at the size of that spike. This

look like an EKG.

Uh this is this is panic. What does that

mean? It means people sold because they

had to, not because they wanted to. That

because fundamental change overnight.

This is what emotional exists look like.

And here's the key insight. Capitalation

usually happens near the end of a move,

not the beginning. But the time fear is

the obvious. Most of the damage is

already done. So why is this important

right now? Well, let's talk about the

recent drop in price. Price fell

quickly. Sentiment flipped fast. Social

media turned bearish overnight. But look

at the chart. The red line exploded.

That tells us that the weak hands

exceeded. Doesn't mean that price is

going to go straight up tomorrow. But it

does mean that the emotional fuel is

largely burned. There's no more crazy

people. Markets don't trend on fear

forever. They pose a reset. Capitalation

is not bullish. It's cleansing. I'm not

saying, you know, buy now to get rich.

The bottom is guaranteed.

But what I'm saying is panic selling

already happened.

So when you see price drops, don't just

ask where is price going. Say who's

forced out. And right now it's telling

us that the fear showed up loudly and

then started to fade.

That is not something to ignore. So

again, look at the red line.

The EKG, as somebody very smart

mentioned,

it's there. It's spiking.

It's gone. Right? They had the heart

attack, they are gone. So now we have

rational players in in in uh in play.

And I think it I think it went up um

recently. Well, I'll I'll do a during my

live on Monday, I'll I'll talk about

that more in detail.