Why Iran’s Protests Feel Different This Time

For nearly the past three weeks,

protests have been rumbling on in Iran.

Originally triggered by a decline in

Iran's currency, the real, the protests

have since spiraled out into a wider

push for regime change. Unsurprisingly,

they've been met with a brutal response

from Iran security services, and at

least 500 people have already been

killed. Although accurate estimates are

hard to come by given the ongoing

internet blackout. But despite the

bloodshed, the protests have been

accompanied by an optimistic sense that

even if it doesn't happen imminently,

the regime's demise really does feel

inevitable. So, in this video, we're

going to explain why today's protests

feel different to their predecessors and

what might happen next.

We sometimes make mistakes in our

videos, and when we do, we think it's

really important for us to be as open

and transparent as possible. That's why

we have a fortnightly podcast called The

Editorial, where we respond to your

criticisms, answer your questions, and

explain what we got wrong. Watch the

show by clicking the link in the

description. So, let's get straight into

it. The first sense in which these

protests feel different is they seem to

enjoy remarkably widespread support

across Iran. For context, previous waves

of protests were often driven by

particular factions or sections of

Iranian society. The 2019 protests, for

instance, were driven by poorer Iranians

who were particularly upset at a

reduction in fuel subsidies, while the

2021 protests were driven by Iranians

living in regions that were more acutely

affected by water shortages, including

most notably Kazan. Even the 2022

protests, which were triggered by the

killing of Mzeramini at the hands of

Iran's so-called morality police and did

spiral out into wider anti-regime

protests, were originally driven by more

liberal elements of Iranian society,

especially in big cities like Tyran.

This essentially allowed the Islamic

Republic to stem the protest by making

targeted concessions. After the 2019

protest, for instance, they introduced a

new subsidy for poorer households. In

2021, they redirected the water back to

Kazan, exacerbating water shortages in

other regions, but stemming the

immediate unrest. And since the 2022

protest, the regime has relaxed

enforcement of some of its more odious

morality laws. Women are no longer

required to wear the hijab, at least in

big cities like Tyran. Public art and

performances aren't uncommon, and there

are even a couple of bars serving

alcohol, which would have been

unimaginable only a few years ago. To be

clear, we're definitely not saying Tyran

is some sort of liberal paradise, but

the regime has quietly permitted some

degree of social liberalization. Anyway,

you get the idea. Previous protests were

led by specific factions of Iranian

society, which meant the regime could at

least partly appease the protesters by

making concessions in specific areas.

These protests, however, seem to enjoy

pretty widespread and even support

across Iranian society. They're squarely

aimed at toppling the regime and they're

happening pretty evenly across the

entire country in both rural and urban

areas. So why do these protests enjoy

more widespread support than previous

protests? Well, as we see it, there are

two obvious reasons. The first is Iran's

all-encompassing economic crisis, which

was actually the proximate trigger of

these protests, which began amongst

merchants in Iran's bizaars after the

central bank allowed a massive

depreciation of Iran's currency. For

context, Iran has been suffering through

a slow burning economic crisis since at

least 2018 when Trump withdrew from the

Iran nuclear deal or the JCPOA and

imposed further sanctions as part of his

maximum pressure campaign against the

regime. Since then, year-on-year

inflation has averaged at about 30%. And

the real has consistently depreciated.

But the crisis has become particularly

acute in the past year or so. Both

because of Iran's war with Israel and

the US and because of the recent fall in

global oil prices, which has been

particularly bad for Iran, given oil

revenues account for a majority of its

foreign currency earnings. Iran is now

mired in a deep recession with the World

Bank forecasting a contraction of 1.7%

in 2025 and then 2.8% in 2026.

At the same time, inflation has risen in

recent months, peaking at a new high of

about 50% in October. Unsurprisingly,

this combination of recession and

inflation, all exacerbated by chronic

corruption in government, has hurt

basically every Iranian household, which

is why these protests enjoy support

across the economic spectrum in Iran.

The second reason that these protests

enjoy widespread support, which we

mentioned in our previous video on this

topic, is that the regime has been

strategically embarrassed. The Ayatollah

and his clerical cronies used to justify

much of their political and economic

repression on the grounds that this was

all necessary to protect Iran against

Israel andor the US. But they've utterly

failed in this respect. Iran's proxy

network, which was supposed to deter

Israel or the US from a direct attack on

Iran, has fallen apart. Iran's main

regional ally, Syrian dictator Bashar

al-Assad, was suddenly ousted a year and

a bit ago, and Iran's military was

unable to defend against the Israeli and

American air assault we saw last year.

This strategic failure was very visible

to ordinary Iranians. Israeli missiles

were literally landing in Thran while

the Ayatollah was hiding in a bunker.

This means that the regime no longer has

the excuse it once did for exercising

its repressive apparatus and there

aren't many Iranians defending the

regime on pragmatic or strategic grounds

anymore. So that's the first way in

which these protests feel different.

They do seem to enjoy wider and more

even support than usual. The second way

in which they feel different is that

they're coming on the back of the regime

making certain concessions. We mentioned

this a minute ago, but after the 2022

Maza Amini protests, the regime quietly

made a number of concessions, including

most notably permitting a degree of

social liberalization, something they'd

previously refused to even countenance.

This was clearly in the hopes of

appeasing more liberal-minded Iranians,

but history suggests that once they

start making concessions, autocratic

regimes are usually on their way out.

Most obviously, Mikuel Gorbachev's

policies of Glasnos and Peristroka,

essentially concessions to a Soviet

public demanding more freedom, preceded

the collapse of the Soviet Union, by

barely a couple of years. Similarly, in

East Germany, the GDR legalized certain

opposition groups and relaxed its trade

and travel restrictions in late 1989,

only months before the fall of the

Berlin Wall. The third way in which

these protests feel different is there's

more focus on candidates who might

succeed the Ayatollah especially the

eldest son of the last sha Razer Palavi

who is a polarizing but singular figure

amongst the Iranian opposition. This is

not to say that Palavi is likely to

succeed the Ayatollah. He lives in the

US without a ground game in Iran. But

his apparent relevance reflects both the

fact that the protests are squarely

focused on toppling the regime and that

it feels more possible than it once did.

Now, to be clear, we're not saying these

protests will definitely succeed. And

it's worth keeping in mind that the

regime has survived recurrent protests

since really the early 2010s.

Nonetheless, today's protests do feel

different in certain respects, and more

and more Iranians are apparently

thinking about what might come after the

Ayatollah. Whether or not you believe

that the New Year's brings a new you,

there's always pressure to find some way

to better yourself as January rolls

around. But where do you even start?

Building new healthy habits isn't always

easy to jump straight into. So that's

why we always turn to Brilliant. That's

because Brilliant focuses on real

transformative learning, all while

adapting to your own already established

skill sets. It starts you at the right

level based on your background, designs

practice sets, and reviews personalized

for you. Brilliant helps you advance at

your ideal pace, giving you the best

chance at sticking to your learning

goals. For example, if you think you're

not a maths person, Brilliant will push

you towards achieving what you didn't

think possible. Their comprehensive

catalog takes you from foundational

maths through algebra all the way to

college level calculus with more and

more courses being added each month.

Brilliant has truly helped us expand our

skill set and kept us coming back every

day to create those habits that help us

grow. Suddenly, it's not so hard to

stick to resolutions. To start the new

year right and begin or continue your

learning journey, you can try Brilliant

for free for a full 30 days. Just go to

brilliant.org/tlddr,

scan the QR code on screen, or you can

click the link in the description.

Brilliant's also given our viewers 20%

off an annual premium subscription,

which gives you unlimited daily access

to everything on Brilliant.