Track *THESE* Critical DATES | Stocks March/April 2022.

hey everyone kevin here in this video

we're going to talk about catalyst

states that you've got to pay attention

to if you're long term on investing or

you're short term run investing you're

trading and ultimately you want to look

for good opportunities to get into

stocks and these catalyst dates i

believe will help you of course keep in

mind that yes there is a beautiful

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first one that we got to pay attention

to coming up uh has to do with

jobs we're gonna get a jobs report on

april 1st it's the first friday of the

month which is usually when we get a

jobs report unless of course we had a

short month prior to that then they

kicked the jobs report back a week but

this month we will have the jobs report

on april 1st what you're looking here or

for here is the month over month change

in pay for people higher pay for people

on a month over month change is a good

thing but not good in terms of the

potential for an inflationary spiral

last month this came in at a month over

month change of absolutely zero that his

wages were flat for the month of

february what about march we'll see so

write that one down april 1st the next

one

that you want to pick

that you want to track comes out uh and

it should probably i'll go in order from

now on the next one that you should

track is actually on march 28th and this

is retail inventories that is actually a

monday release it comes out monday at 8

30 a.m eastern time and you'll have

wholesale inventories at the same time

generally what we're expecting here is

to see a slight increase in wholesale

inventories this is the amount of

product that wholesalers have and we're

seeing sort of this kathy woody and

style of increase of inventories

partially because a more inventories are

in transit and partially because b

maybe we're starting to see a backlog of

inventories

in certain sectors that could eventually

lead to deflationary pressures we'll see

retail inventories are expected to come

in lower than last month at one point

four percent huge deviation in either of

these are going to be implications for

inflation higher inventories less

inflation lower inventories more

inflation

then uh we're going to be seeing jolts

job openings we expect this to come in

strong march 29th at 10 a.m eastern time

all times from now on will be eastern

we're expecting 11 million job openings

which is ridiculous

uh there i'm gonna skip mortgages and

real estate because really real estate

is an entirely different video that we

should be talking about and as mortgage

rates go up we are going to see downward

pressure on real estate prices how much

they come down will likely be uh

limited just based on the amount of

demand that is pent up but we're going

to focus on stocks here and the big one

is going to be the gdp report for the

first quarter

this is actually going to be a big day

and it comes out march 30th which is

kind of weird because the quarter is not

technically over yet but uh

annualized gdp comes out

and we're expecting this to come in at

seven percent uh as an annualized rate

of gdp change so we'll keep an eye on

how our gdp growth is moving and the

federal reserve of course is expecting

gdp to fall as low as 2.9 by the end of

the year the more gdp declines the more

concerns will rise about a potential

recession and of course in a recession

the last thing you want to own are

stocks so anything that indicates the

potential of a recession coming is is

definitely a problem

we're going to get a pce which is the

personal consumption expenditures

measure this is the federal reserve's

measure of inflation

this in my opinion not so terribly

important since generally most uh

most of the stock market seems to react

to cpi though this will come out on the

31st

then on the first as i mentioned we'll

have

the employment reading we'll also two

days prior to the first get an adp

employment report that employment report

is the private payrolls changes it is a

private company that does this it

usually gives you a little bit of a

heads up in terms of what you might

expect to see in the official

unemployment report that friday but

generally the one people are going to

focus on is friday april 1. the one that

comes out at

8 15 a.m eastern time on uh wednesday is

generally generally has less of an

impact on the market

then

the next thing that we're going to

probably be paying attention to before

we get to cpi which comes out soon soon

will probably have to do with the ism

services index the reason we're going to

be looking at this which comes out on

april 5th

is because we believe that if inflation

in goods goes down one of the things

that could keep inflation going would be

inflation and services and so a more

booming services economy could actually

help keep inflation higher which would

of course not be good for the market so

we'll keep an eye on that expectation is

58 and the number over 50 is growth that

comes out april 5th at 10 a.m eastern

time

then we get cpi we're going to be

looking for that cpi month over month

information survey estimates are not in

yet for april or for march rather but

this is the cpi report that is probably

going to be the worst one that we've

seen honestly like ever this could end

up being one of the peak reports because

it's after the war has begun uh it

should fully reflect a full month of

high gasoline prices in in

at the pumps remember that cpi likes to

divide a month into three equal segments

take an average price of those three

snapshots average it together and then

you get an estimate for energy style

inflation well remember the invasion

into ukraine happened february 24th so

you're really only getting a ladder

snapshot there so in other words you're

expecting higher inflation in that march

report especially food and commodity

prices right

wheat

neon input cost some of these input

costs are going to show up in producer

price inflation but those could trickle

into consumer price inflation speaking

of which though producer price inflation

will be able to analyze that report it's

going to be a busy week the very next

day on april 13th and what you're

looking for in both these reports is

going to be the month over month change

how how ugly was inflation from this war

did we go from point eight percent to

one percent and if you think about if we

went from point eight percent to one

percent all you have to do to annualize

it to get sort of an annualized speed as

you multiply it by twelve so we get a

one percent read on a month over month

that's an annualized rate of 12

inflation that's gonna get scary and

that'll that'll get priced in the market

so you'll you'll see some pain here we

don't actually have the federal reserve

in april we uh we won't be hearing from

the fed until the beginning of

may thank goodness

we are going to get uh consumer uh sort

of the preliminary read on consumer

sentiment and inflation expectations you

get this twice a month the preliminary

in the final we'll get the preliminary

on april 14th that'll come out at 10 a.m

eastern time

then we'll get some real estate

statistics around the 21st and 22nd

but more important i personally think is

going to be that consumer confidence

figure that we'll get by april 26th and

we want to see some confidence start

getting restored and then we'll be at

inventories again by the end of april on

april 27th at 8 30 a.m but no big fed

events planned for april if we got

anything from the fed it would be a

shocker and and think about if we got

any kind of shocker from the fed it

would essentially be the equivalent of a

rug poll that would be very very bad for

markets i mean you could see a dow jones

down 10 day very quickly we don't

actually expect that i would say the

real big ones to pay attention to for

april coming up here jobs report we want

to see wage price spiral or no so far

the answer has been no cpi how bad is

that month over month going to be ppi

producer price inflation how bad is that

month over month going to be and

and then of course expectations are

always very important to measure what's

happening with inflation expectations

you really want to watch that that's a

big deal for the federal reserve

inventories in my opinion do matter as

well because they could be a little bit

of a leading indicator in terms of what

you might expect for future inflation so

these are some of our big catalyst dates

coming up for april we also though and

this is important to consider have a tax

filing deadline mid-april and oftentimes

during tax filing time you tend to have

less buying pressure and potentially

more selling pressure because people

need money to pay their tax bill unless

of course they go on extension although

even though technically if they go on

extension they still have to make their

payment some people might choose to pay

the penalty rate about six percent

annualized per year check that with your

cpa

but anyway uh

there is a potential for a lack of

buying pressure and increased selling

pressure in the middle of the month

which unfortunately is going to be right

around the time of cpi so you could end

up seeing a rough period of time

somewhere between that april 8th period

maybe april 15th just slightly before

and after that cpi data though usually

most of your pain tends to come before

catalyst events so if i had to look at a

calendar and and sort of guess

i would say that we're somewhat i'm not

expecting drama coming out of the jobs

report on april 1st i think and this

week we had a lot of fed speak which it

was really supposed to be a quiet week

this week i would say the week of the

28th to april 1st should be relatively

benign especially if we get a good jobs

report on the first which i expect we

will then i'll expect that between the

fourth and the eighth things will also

be pretty relaxed so we could be setting

up for a nice potential two-week rally

fingers crossed though you're going to

start getting some fears priced in for

high inflation probably around the 7th

or 8th when we start thinking about oh

well the cpi report comes out on the

12th next week which would be tuesday

april 12th and uh yeah and then ppi the

very next day

yeah people are going to want to wait

for that because it'll send signals to

the market about what the federal

reserve should do if let's just say

inflation came in at some ridiculous

level so ridiculously high and that

inflation was broad-based where it

wasn't just isolated to energies or

commodities related to war then that's a

sign that inflation is getting

entrenched and the fed might have to

come out and pull a dirty on us that is

either a dirty rug pool unexpectedly or

just straight up in our face on their

next fomc meeting which again is not

until the beginning of may so goodbye j

pal take a month off we don't want to

hear from you for a little bit but what

we do want to hear from is me and those

private course member live streams where

you can get my perspectives one-on-one

with me when you ask a question of

course it's a larger group of

individuals who come into the live

streams but when i answer your question

i try to dedicate time to uh your

question that you provide uh and yeah i

look forward to having you check out the

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much and we'll see you next one bye