holy f*ck...

oh my gosh that is a

revelation holy crap they're completely

clueless completely and absolutely

stupidly coess that's what the Federal

Reserve is and I hate to say it but you

probably agree I'm just going to throw

up a few samples here and then we'll

have a conversation about this and think

about this okay so uh why don't we go

into right over here and let's take a

look at this while my model scenario

contains a near-term Slowdown rather

than a contraction it is actually pretty

Rosy to compared with what I fear might

happen Okay so things are Rosy okay this

is this is one example I'll tell you

what these are from in just a moment

here's another one uh my contacts this

is all from the FED mind you my contacts

tell me that because the economy

continues to be reasonably healthy and

people have jobs things are still under

control but if house prices and the

stock market interesting note fall

further and the economy appears to be

weakening then they'll be further

lending tightening and that uh

tightening of lending conditions uh

could uh end up creating a

self-fulfilling fear of a crash this is

basically a way of saying look when

people are able to borrow you can kind

of sustain spending and GDP and the

economy but as soon as people are unable

to borrow because maybe housing prices

weaken the stock market weakens and then

Banks start raining in going ooh we need

to be careful then you can self- fulfill

the crash okay interesting comment and

then we have this comment right

here credit quality is actually a better

story except for residential real estate

it's still pretty good out there

basically talk a little bit about this

being good that being good other than

some pain in residential real estate

quote everything is good consu the other

Consumer Credit feels like a mild

recession but again it's cyclical H now

what could I possibly be reading from

what could possibly be so

Rosy uh or what could possibly be so

exciting uh to the Federal Reserve that

they're

cracks but maybe there's something

Brewing well folks these are none other

than a reminder on the expiring coupon

code on the courses on building your

wealth tomorrow at 11:59 p.m. email us

at staff kevin.com if you have any

bundle up requests did have a bad last

two days of trading but today we got

some beautiful profitable tendies I made

a little mistake at the end of the day

last yesterday and one trade ruined my

last two days so that can happen but

today we're profitable on today's trades

and we're hoping to be profitable Prof

as far as we can go forward but I just

like to be transparent that I send a lot

of ideas a lot of great ideas and people

love them we've got hundreds of people

uh sometimes upwards of a thousand

people in our course member live stream

I me this morning we spent like an hour

and 20 minutes just talking about trades

and ideas and and when to go in when to

go out and how to move things so it's

really fun uh if you're not part of it

yet make sure you join linked down below

okay so what is this actually folks

these

documents are from the Federal Reserve

they're transcripts from the Federal

Reserve fomc meetings take a look at

this this was December

2007 December of 2007 the economy

continues to be reasonably healthy okay

January of 2008 I just went through all

these this morning I was reading them

they're so fascinating to read this

morning what do we have here uh it's

just a Slowdown guys it's it's not a

crash it's it's just a near-term

Slowdown things will be actually pretty

Rosy that's January of 2008 and we got

to talk implications in just a moment

but look at this September of 2008 this

is like Leman Brothers Time Leman

Brothers time other than that everything

is okay that's the FED after Lan

Brothers collapses everything is okay no

it's not obviously the FED famously

bailed everything out in uh February of

2009 well after Congress tried bailing

things out in September October of 2008

but we need to talk implications about

this because this is a pretty big deal a

lot of you are quite frankly

sophisticated investors and we just have

to be real about what's going on in

markets right now markets are obviously

topping we're starting to get signs that

potentially we seeing more layoffs again

and this is a problem I like using

layoffs

tracker.com uh take a look at this right

here you get actually sort by Tech or

non-te and we're only about halfway

through April but if we continue this

trend April is going to be as high as

May of last year and that's weird

because it's an indicator that companies

are starting to realize crap we might

not only be higher for longer we just

heard Bostick and Williams this uh

morning say look we don't need to rush

to cut rates in fact you know we'll cut

maybe at the end of the year maybe

markets are only pricing in 1.5 rate

cuts by the end of the year but these

layoffs they're not just a Tesla problem

I think they're going to be an economic

problem this is Tech by the way I mean I

want to tag over here uh we can jump on

over to the non-tech uh and let's get

rid of all this spam that they try to

pop up uh quick note also if you are

interested in house act we're doing an

inperson Road Show so if you want to

meet me in person uh do me a favor click

the link down below you're going to see

metkevin.com

Roadshow uh and it puts you through uh I

want you basically to vote on what city

you want me to go to uh so between next

Monday and probably about May 2nd we're

going to do a road show so we'll meet

you in person shake your hand talk to

you about house sack mini funds explain

what investing and how hack is all about

so if you're interested in that we're

probably going to do it at where we land

so the uh they're called Fix bace

operators the fbos they have little uh

meeting rooms and stuff there so we'll

be able to do Meetup uh with myself and

the team and you'll be able to meet the

team so it' be pretty cool so check that

out if you want to again click the link

down below so you can vote on which

cities you want that to be in anyway

back to layoffs the layoff tracker

doesn't work for nonch so I went over

here to war notices and we're seeing

this uptrend on war notices I want to be

really cautious about this and so a lot

of people have been asking me Kevin

Kevin why why are you so bearish

not only do I think that we're going to

have a really hard time comparing to

2023 earnings think about that for a

moment okay you have to compare to 2023

earnings so if q1 misses at asml and TSM

or rather they beat but their forecast

isn't as great and the stock drops I

mean remember what happened to asml

let's just look at it these are this

we're just starting earning season what

happens at asml here let's go to the

average candlesticks boom right back to

our retracement line okay if you trust

the lines trading is a lot easier I

found uh and that's why we like sending

alerts with the lines okay that's not a

good situation for TSM down 5% that

doesn't look very good right now you get

a Netflix you could technically have a

beat in a bad forecast tanks that could

happen across all of AI I think that's

exactly why we're starting to see Nvidia

start selling down so I'm very nervous

about Netflix today because I think even

if we beat if we have a bad forecast we

go down but remember we have to compare

to

q123 q223 that's full AI right there Q3

Q4 2023 both of those full AI so it's

going to be easy to miss this year I

think a lot of companies are

unfortunately going to realize that in

order for them to actually increase EPS

they're going to have to layoff more and

they're going to have to go through

painful layoffs the expansion of credit

won't drive this economy any further I

think we're out of money this is why I

tweeted I'm sincerely fearful the entire

stock market is about to take a giant

poop emoji I've been raising cash and

I've been complaining since March but I

think the real pain is about to hit I

pray that I'm wrong and people say like

oh Kevin well I mean if if you're in

cash why would you pray that you're

wrong because recessions are nasty

people get laid off they lose their jobs

their startups fail they uh go bankrupt

they lose their homes their car uh you

know their relationships they get

divorced people die I'm I'm not trying

to be um how do you say it hyperbolic

here it's just recession suck and the

reality is the 102 has never been wrong

about a recession coming now I have I've

not been a recession bear I've not been

the person saying oh I think a

recession's coming I haven't seen that

at all but I think partially that may be

because we got really propped up by AI

but what happens when we start having to

compare to those growth

expectations for AI and those

expectations start coming in softer just

like what we saw remember

asml they had expectations of a 4.3

billion Euro uh quarter and their

forecast was 3.3 that's like a you know

over 20% Miss that's really bad and so

what that does if the AI anchor or sort

of foundation to this Market

tanks I don't want to know what that

does to everything else now a lot of

people say oh well well maybe people

will go from the AI stocks and buy other

stocks that are beaten

down like Tesla I want to have that hope

and like sincerely I want to believe

that that is going to be true but I

think if AI blows this entire Market

goes to crap really fast and I'm not

actually really concerned about a

correction like who cares the correction

is is you know something you would

expect right like okay cool a I don't

know a 20% pullback in the qes okay big

deal like you're still going to be up

right that's but but but but wait for it

okay that's what I want want to talk to

you about just wait for it so we're at

423 right now clearly we topped out at

about 449 so uh we go back to 406 that's

easy okay that's an easy correction uh I

think it's much more likely you end up

going down to like a 373 pretty quickly

honestly 373 is not that big of a deal

but let's say we go down to 373 divid by

420 uh 423 that puts me down about 12%

I'm not even at a full correction how

about if I go to

348 34 8 that gets me to about 20% it's

like 18% but that gets me down here

that's not unreasonable that would be

that sudden dip we had in October

revisiting that October low reasonable

but what happens if at the same time as

all of a sudden you have this concern

over oh no the stock market is going

down watch this remember this from the

beginning of the video I I like I hate

saying this but watch I'll read it again

if house prices and the stock market

Fall further and the economy appears to

be

weakening then banks will further

tighten the lending conditions and terms

on Consumer loans to avoid problems down

the road and these fears could be

self-fulfilling in other words the

resulting credit crunch it's their words

the resulting credit crunch could push

us into recession okay so think about

that for a moment right now people still

have the capacity to borrow on credit

cards credit card spending is going up

but what's happening remember the bank

video we did just a few days ago this is

scary I'm I'm I don't want to be a bear

because it's so bad for the entire

economy but we know borrowing has gone

through the roof buy now pay laters

credit card borrowing all that borrowing

is going through the roof we know that

at rates that are insane it's

stupid but what did we start seeing at I

kid you not Bank of America Wells Fargo

City JP Morgan what did all of the banks

say much larger charge offs charge offs

70 to 100% higher than what they had at

the beginning of last year and then

they're trying to cover that up in their

earnings per share by taking lower loss

reserves well what happens when you have

lower loss reserves and then you have

more charge offs at the beginning of

2025 it's going to be a big oopsy doopsy

Miss maybe that's why Jamie Diamond just

dumped a million shares of JP Morgan

between February and

April then banks have to start

increasing their risk aversion how do

you increase risk aversion increasing

risk aversion would be taking less risk

right you tighten credit stand standards

so you lower the number of people

available to borrow okay well once

people are capped out on their borrowing

or their credit limits get capped can't

spend as much anymore oh no now you got

to repay your debts and you can't keep

spending that's how you go into a

recession they literally outlined it

right here in December of

2007 except of

course the economy is reasonably healthy

because people still have jobs and

things are under

control we're not going to see

unemployment claims go up until we're

already in the

recession okay St Louis Fred

unemployment claims I want you to see

this I I don't think people pay

attention to this stuff and and again my

my job is to really try to help uh and

this is my opinion like I I live for

this stuff it gives me excitement to

share this I believe my job exists to

give people a perspective at at

something they're not seeing that's why

when when I send trade alerts sometimes

people like Kevin you know I don't I

don't follow the trades I follow your

ideas okay that that's perfect you can

do whatever you want but that's why I

always send these trade alerts uh and

and same thing with house Haack even if

you don't want to invest in house hack

but you want to come meet us in person

and and you want to learn what we're

doing great you know we'll have a more

in-depth uh thing you know the

millionaire Symposium that'll be you

know a two and a half day event where we

actually like explain and teach but the

house Haack thing is the house Haack

Road show you can come to that for free

this is free but anyway look at initial

claims

again I I I think people aren't paying

attention to this and that makes me

nervous I don't want to be nervous you

know how much hate I get for for like

being a bear it is the most UN appeasing

thing like even other bears are like

you're not bearish enough like

God uh but

anyway look at this folks look at

unemployment claims when do they really

Skyrocket in the middle of the recession

towards the end of the recession once

the unemployment claims are skyrocketing

honestly that's when you buy the dip

it's like oh when should you buy the dip

in stocks when unemployment claims are

actually skyrocketing when unemployment

is peaking when the pain is peaking what

a surprise you buy the dip and let's

look at 2008 the stock market bottomed

in March of

2009 holy

crap I did not pre-plan that oh my God

oh my

gosh oh my gosh that is a revelation

holy

crap now I I I went into this video

knowing that if I pull up unemployment

claims you would see that the

unemployment claims go up during a

recession honestly I was not expecting

the peak of unemployment claims to match

when the stock market bottomed

damn I wish I wasn't a bear I'm just

really bearish right now this is this is

just the beginning I look at this look

at the C come on man look at the C come

on we're about to lose the 100

day oh

man I did make some money today uh I

want to I'll reveal my trade to you uh

today I had a few trades I didn't make

as much as I hoped on my coinbase short

but I did make like 800 bucks on my

coinbase short I broke even on an arm

short and on Tesla I'll show you my

Tesla trade so Tesla all of the

screenshots of this are in the stocks

and site group on Tesla I went short

right about

herish uh as we confirmed we were coming

down uh and then we basically stayed

under uh this uh this 325 moving average

and I took some beautiful

tendies uh but yeah that 252 line was

really useful because we couldn't break

it in the morning and then when we got

rejected again that was enough for me to

go short I think I'm I'm up like 11 or

12K or something like that today which

is nice but and it just makes up the

whole of I screwed up so badly on an arm

um uh call Cuz arm was down

10% and then I went for a call I made

money went for a call again made money

went for a call then the market tanks

into the clo

and it dropped to like 12.3% really

rapidly that

hurt but that's trading it happens and I

I just want to be transparent again my

ideas are to help you trade to learn how

to trade to share opinions and

perspectives and I send these alerts

live not a lot of people actually do

that cuz it's hard to put your money

where your mouth is but but I do it so

anyway thanks for watching check out

that House Road Show link down below and

we'll see you in the next one good luck

everyone goodbye why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

goes congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin P there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your

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broker and becoming a stock broker this

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shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a security or investment

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are either paid affiliations or products

or Services we may benefit from I also

personally operate an actively managed

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

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