Tesla vs Lucid vs Nio | The Truth.

everyone me kevin here oh my goodness

folks tesla and lucid are absolutely

positively destroying it and it is

really great news for the ev sector and

here's the thing folks the eevee sector

has been in the doldrums it's been in

the trash it's been in the toilet for a

very long period of time throughout 2021

we had a run-up up to february this is

where we saw some real highs at the end

of january beginning of february saw

some real highs wasn't until the

bloomberg terminal told us quote pray

and then all of a sudden we saw tech

stocks plummet evs fell out of favor

massive fear uncertainty and doubt about

electric vehicle adoption are there

going to be credits or the companies

only profitable because of credits blah

blah blah all this fud that created the

biggest buying opportunity i think we

will have ever seen for electric

vehicles folks that was february through

about june for a lot of these companies

lucid motors as recently as september

1st was trading for 17.79

profitably sold a bunch of put contracts

to farm as much yield as i could while

volatility was spiking and some of these

stocks fell to record lows intra year

now

we are in a totally different place

lucid is kicking butt today it is up 30

lucid stock is up 60 in the last six

months tesla

stock only up about three percent within

the well today not a whole 30 percent

but over the last six months

also up 60 percent compare the two

trends and they're almost the same this

is very important and it makes sense why

we're seeing tesla lead the pack and

then other evs catch up so if tesla

moves expect moves in the other evs

micro vision move today on hopes that

lighter will take a bigger role in uh

car tech neo's been up not as high as

some of uh some of the gains that we've

seen on lucid and tesla here neo really

only moving from lows of around 30 31 to

about 40 where it is now so neo in my

opinion still has some room to run to

kind of be with the curve here what i

like doing by the way to see this and

then we're going to get into some news

on tesla we're going to look at

valuation for tesla we're going to do

something similar with lucid but a

little bit more abstract we'll talk

about that what i like doing a lot is

typing into google finance.google.com

this is like your raw

simple like the most kind of simple

stock platform you could really look at

because it's not really a stock platform

it's not like you go on to google and

trade and really what you're wanting to

do is you're wanting to go in there and

type in one stock then you hit compare

two on the bottom so i'll show you

exactly how this works you pull it up

you jump on in and we're going to click

on tesla right here we'll throw up tesla

then we're going to jump to compare 2

and we're going to compare the tesla

trajectory to lucid l-sit obviously as

the ticker symbol lucid motors by the

way lucid motors the first

non-tesla public

ev play

that is pure electric i think that's

really cool i know rivian's coming up

with their ipo that's going to be a big

one we're gonna be watching that very

closely but let's throw in neo why don't

we also throw in uh for comparison sakes

uh fisker

and uh and of course you could play with

this but you may as well just throw in

fisker and why not also throw in

uh

not not like ford or some of the legacy

automakers i mean i suppose you could

you know what we'll throw in ford for

the gigs okay there we go so uh tesla

kind of skews the graph here a little

bit let's go back to six months and what

we're really looking for there we go

this is a lot better now we're based on

percentages rather than dollar values

that's very important so look at this

folks over the last six months i'm

actually glad i put ford in here uh ford

up 49

tesla and lucid tied at 60 percent look

at that neo a measly 4.62

neos lagging big time and i don't think

it's because they're not producing and

selling actually i think neos are doing

very well exceptionally well let's throw

an x-ping just to compare they did just

announce the potential for a flying car

a car that could convert uh to also be a

flying car yeah look at that six months

x-ping's up 51

so if you're looking for a lagger to

invest in

neo what are you doing my friend let's

get you back to like 55 60 so you can

catch up to the others here but

everybody else is taking off obviously

this is a sectoral shift right

eevee's really hot going into the

beginning of the year start of the biden

administration people thinking oh my

gosh these things are going to go to the

moon let's go year to date let's take a

look at this this will show this a lot

better there we go yeah look at this

start of the year oh my gosh

everything's going to go to the moon

lucid has its insane momentum squeeze it

was crazy everything really chilled out

though in march april may june i mean

this was buying season we made videos

and i sent alerts in the stocks and

psychology of money program which is a

coupon code expiring tomorrow by the way

check that out but i remember sending

alerts saying folks this is going to be

like 2021 we're going to look back at

this and go wow wish i bought more of

this ev dip because all the eevee was

just sucking together it didn't even

matter which company just anything

electric vehicle related sucked in may

june there was so much fun around

batteries this that or the other uh and

now we're really seeing that trend pick

up again here at the end of the year and

it's being led by tesla which is

obviously absolutely incredible it

certainly helps that we've already we've

already talked about this but there's

some new details

hertz is purchasing up to 100 000 tesla

vehicles as part of their rental car

company this by the way is four months

after emerging from bankruptcy and they

well they announced that they're going

to purchase 100 000 teslas apparently 50

000 of these are going to be allocated

to uber so that way individuals could

rent a vehicles uh from uber on sort of

a weekly basis i want to say with

something like 350 here it is tesla

rentals will start at 334 a week but

they plan to bring prices under 300 a

week uber drivers are only eligible for

tesla rentals if they've completed a

certain amount of trips 150 and have a

certain star rating 4.7 so uh i mean gus

that this is actually a motivation for

uber employees to be the or not

employees uber workers to be the best

workers they can be uh but this is sort

of the more old news that basically uber

drivers will be able to rent tesla's

from hertz the car rental company coming

out of bankruptcy the ceo by the way of

hertz got fired from ford for not being

innovative enough and now he's

innovating like crazy in the rental

industry

really incredible job like very very

smart job it hurts but anyway

uh the cool thing is there's actually

more news that came out of this not only

is hertz planning on installing

thousands of electric vehicle chargers

which may also help them qual them

qualify for tax credits somewhere around

potentially 30

of a tax credit for the amount of money

that you spend investing in charging

stations this is something that we're

expecting as part of our infrastructure

package so we'll see exactly what's

meant by the terms of these bills once

they actually pass and we get

interpretations so that's to be

determined but it's possible that uh

hertz will actually be buying more

vehicles in fact their ceo went on an

interview and said if demand is high

they will order another

100 000 teslas this means now we're

learning that the hertz tesla deal that

was announced of a hundred thousand

vehicles might actually end up doubling

by the way it's worth noting that this

does not even include uh revenue for

tesla yet for full self-driving hertz is

not buying the full self-driving uh

service for the vehicle they're spending

about forty two thousand dollars per uh

however in the future it's expected that

uh hurts might end up not only using

tesla insurance to insure these vehicles

we'll see it gets into commercial

insurance and commercial underwriting so

a little bit more complicating but uh

huge huge potential there we also know

that the teslas are now effectively for

her it's the same price as a toyota

camry or honda accord which is

absolutely incredible this is also the

largest ev order ever the hundred

thousand this all helped tesla move up

but now we're hearing that this order

could potentially double if demand is

right for these cars and so far i could

tell you it looks like demand is hot for

these cars uber drivers want to rent

teslas that means they don't have to go

out and buy a car they could rent a car

and uh and essentially have a very nice

luxury style vehicle that doesn't cost a

lot to charge or maintain and uh boom

you know you're able to make money as an

uber driver now uh we also know that

hertz is offloading a bunch of old

rental vehicles from their fleet and

they signed a deal with carvana to sell

those vehicles this is a good testament

by the way to the uh online buyers for

vehicles shift carvana vroom i think

this is great hertz is really trying to

just go innovative in every direction

how they're selling their cars how they

are purchasing the cars from tesla the

upside to them potentially purchasing

more teslas this is very very exciting

so uh what i want to do now is just kind

of take a peek here at our tesla

spreadsheet so i like

stupid trolls online uh i always like to

make fun of my tesla spreadsheet and

then yet it always seems to be right so

whatever i mean people can make fun of

you all day long but i just want to

refer to this here for a moment so this

is my 2025 sheet i keep kind of

reverting back to this anytime i make

modifications and what's so incredible

that i really want to show you right now

about tesla and really helps to

reiterate why tesla is doing so well

right now is the impact that a margin

improvement makes to the potential

future stock price of tesla so let's say

we're selling vehicles in 2025 for forty

thousand dollars a vehicle that's way

less than the forty nine thousand six

hundred dollars we're selling vehicles

for right now but that's because we're

in the future expecting maybe a twenty

five thousand dollar vehicle we're gonna

be selling cars in india at a potential

gigafactory in india

obviously the germany and shanghai

facilities will be expanding great right

so what we're going to do here is let's

just go ahead and kill energy for a

moment let's keep insurance at zero i

generally set that to zero i'm gonna put

robo taxis to zero by the way this hurts

deal kind of implies that hertz might be

open to uh you know taking advantage of

full self driving when it comes out and

if we have robo taxis hertz might

actually be the biggest provider of robo

taxis outside of consumers

via tesla how cool is that and keep in

mind that lyft and uber

sold off their self-driving divisions

they gave up on the project

yeah that's good for tesla but anyway so

what i really want to show you here is

take a look at this right now i have

this projection of a reasonable price

target of in my opinion 1700 for tesla

this feels really low now when i did the

spreadsheet tesla was trading for

anywhere between 550 to 800 and back

when this was 550 when i was buying more

tesla shares that to me worked out to

about a 25 annual compounded rate of

return that's every year boom boom boom

boom that annualized compounded rate of

return right or annual compounded rate

of return well now when tesla went to

800 that would drop my return to about

16 percent now with tesla sitting at uh

we're about 10 80 right now what are we

after hours 1085

that compounded annual rate of return

only goes to about 9.61

so it actually makes tesla feel less

attractive as an investment because it's

run so much right

now uh the one thing that i do want to

mention is that the good news is this

this tax rate increasing here is not

potentially not expected to go up

we're expecting to stay at uh i put this

at about an effective corporate tax rate

of about 22 percent here uh we're not

expecting a corporate tax rate to go up

under biden's plans so this is excellent

this is good news

and what i do want to change though is

margin i think that i did not think 30

was going to be realistic but we just

hit 30 with credits i think we're going

to be at 30 gross vehicle margin by 2025

without credits so just so you know

that's if you manufacture a vehicle you

sell it for a hundred thousand dollars

it means you're keeping thirty thousand

dollars that's before you get to like

general administration

uh whatever right so input costs so

profits minus input costs and employees

per vehicle keeping about 30 grand a

vehicle on that example right

and so but i'm running the spreadsheet

at 28 that was my projection back when

we were like 22

so i kind of really have to update this

and if i drop this just two if i bump

this two percent here we're at 1760

stock price if i hit enter this is going

to move and this is going to let us know

how much

this stock should move based on that

margin moving about two percent let's

hit it okay drop something dumpster back

up here look at that

1987 folks a marginal improvement is a

massive massive boon for tesla so let me

undo that again here

1716 is our current number so let's save

that let's again change that margin to

70

uh expense margin 70 profit margin 30

gross that changes this uh future star

value to 1987. divide that by 1716.

that's about a reflective of a seven a

sixteen percent increase in the stock uh

justified solely because of the marginal

improvement

and uh from about uh when we reported

earnings let me see quickly when tesla

earnings was so it was like to compare

tesla earnings i know it was last week

but i can't remember the date for the

life of me so tesla earnings happened on

october

20th okay good so october 20th and since

october 20th tesla stock has gone

uh up 24

so in my opinion with the stock going up

24.4 percent it's actually gone up a

little bit more than margin justifies

but that's probably because you have a

lot of bears who are finally realizing

dang okay this is realistic so that's

why you're getting a little bit of this

over correction to the upside this does

not mean that i think that tesla's going

to keep running but it certainly means

that i'm not going to buy tesla at these

levels it's just not going to happen

so now let's talk briefly about lucid

okay so we're expecting to potentially

deliver somewhere around here let's

let's do this together i do not have a

full spreadsheet on lucid because we

don't actually have a quarter of

earnings with vehicle deliveries

actually happening but what do we know

so we've got lucid reservations right

now at about 13 000 this is for the

lucid air i'm actually one of the people

that has a reservation for one but i

still have not had an opportunity to

test drive one of them which is really

frustrating especially since other like

car review people are able to to review

these things and i know i'm not a car

reviewer or a strong crew

and uh it like i'm not asking for

special treatment but you know some some

equal treatment would be nice

but anyway uh i haven't been able to

test drive the thing

even though i actually have a pre-order

unlike a lot of other individuals i feel

like who don't have a pre-order getting

a chance to review the darn thing i kind

of feel a little left out okay so anyway

apparently there's a delivery event

uh this uh this saturday for the first

deliveries of the lucid it's worth

noting that lucid expects to deliver

about 20 i'm sorry to 1 000 vehicles

this year that works out to uh in the

last uh what four months of this year

that works out to a production rate of

about 250 vehicles per month that

they're producing right now and peter

rollinson has been very clear like we're

not at a ramp stage right now i'll tell

you this i'll be very clear with this

they are praying that nothing goes wrong

okay that's what they're praying for

they are praying praying praying praying

that they can get these vehicles off the

line delivered to customers and there's

no bad press about people going my car's

a lemon my car's not working oh my gosh

like the next three weeks

are going to be very very

critical for lucid because here's the

thing first my guess is that lucid has a

lot of momentum right now because these

deliveries are coming we might see by

the rumor sell the news but then guess

what if we get one bad piece of news

about the cars not being good about a

quality issue about a safety issue about

a crash about a fire

this is a car okay like they're gonna be

crashes you get one bad piece of news

and people are going to rail on this

company and this thing will have a big

self now i don't think that's going to

be justified okay i don't want to sound

like i'm like fudding lucid here i'm

just saying be prepared that when a

stock moves on momentum like this it

doesn't take much to push it down

now i look i'm happy it's at a 57

billion dollar market crap right a cap

right now uh and that's that's in my

opinion a little enthusiastic uh for

comparison neo right now is sitting at

66 billion dollars

and uh they're regularly delivering

vehicles right you've got x being at 59

billion dollars but i think that rivien

ipo is helping because rivien's expected

to go public at 80 billion dollars which

is freaking nuts like i'd rather see

lucid at 80 billion than riven at 80

billion but anyway so a thousand

deliveries this year

is gonna make q1 earnings in 2022 look

not great okay i mean a thousand

vehicles this year let's just do the

math together really quick you do a

thousand of vehicles times a hundred

thirty six thousand dollars that's 136

million dollars of revenue it's a drop

in the bucket okay drop in the bucket

they're going to i would highly expect

that they're going to lose money right

because their operation costs and

everything are going to be set up for a

much larger ram so you're going to have

a negative

quarter the margin is going to look like

crap you're probably going to have

negative gross margin so while tesla's

trading off really good margin the

margin at lucid for the first while is

going to look horrible but remember it

did at neo as well neo had like a four

percent margin then an eight percent

margin went to 14

18 22

and the stock rose as margin rose

but i think the stock is moving a little

bit in anticipation of that right now

and so i think there are potentially

more downside catalysts than there are

upside catalysts that's not to say this

can't keep going on a momentum run just

think the valuation probably going to be

a little pushed right now based on the

rumor and trading so i would caution

caution that uh however

if you're excited like if we don't get

big bad news or even if we do and you

want to buy the dip on this i think it's

fair to buy the dip on lucid under 25

certainly under 30 uh well the other way

around under 30 certainly under 25 i

think those are dip opportunities if you

want to invest in lucid in the long term

so if you believe in the car you believe

this as an alternate to tesla you know

right now they're pushing their 79 000

vehicle reservations they're trying to

expand their audience this is great

they're going to be coming out with the

lucid gravity the suv in the future uh

probably 2024 once they actually get

production ramped on this vehicle and

it's gonna be a slow ramp it's not gonna

be like tesla okay

uh then uh then this will grow i mean

look uh neo what did neo deliver let's

see neo deliveries just to give you

comparison as to how early we are on the

s curve even though this is valued like

neo right now you got to know where we

sit right now okay neo delivered 10

000 vehicles in september of 2021.

okay

lucid expects to deliver 20 000. so

twice that

in 12 times the time

next year so so they're early on the

s-curve this is not bagging on them it's

just simply saying it's this very early

stage for the company and just be

careful on potential movements too early

uh in the stock price on this one and

getting caught up in the momentum right

uh support the company and support the

stock i have i always have

now but i am frustrated about that car

reservation okay i'm pissing me off a

little bit sorry i'm just being

transparent so we're gonna ramp to about

1600 next year is the expectation that

could be a high expectation going from

producing 500 i'm sorry 250 cars a month

to all of a sudden next year getting to

an average of of like seven times that

what is that 1600

1600 divided by 250 is yeah 6.4 times

that

look i'm hopeful for you but i think

that's a little optimistic right

so if that's a little optimistic and

those numbers miss stock's going to beat

as well i do think q1 is going to be a

dirty earnings report because you're

going to have a big fat negative margin

it's going to be their first quarter

with a real uh deliveries this next

earnings report that's coming out here

at the end of here like when's the next

journey's report it doesn't even really

matter it honestly doesn't matter it's

gonna be a matter of looking at their

cash balances and their burn rate that's

what you're gonna be looking at but like

what earnings have they potentially had

if they haven't delivered vehicles yet

right

so i i wouldn't be so so enthusiastic

about the the earnings myself uh

november 15th is when the results will

come out who cares that's going to tell

you what the earnings are for

september august july i'll tell you now

zero other than pre-orders but i don't

even know if they recognize pre-order

income as revenue yet because they

haven't really earned that yet i i don't

know about the accounting practices of

that i've taken accounting uh but uh i

will tell you which is above my pay

grade

so anyway uh ramping to 50 000 ambitious

but but this would make sense that you

would go go from to some sort of ramp

rate like this uh keep in mind that neo4

comparison delivered 24 000 vehicles in

three months and they doubled that year

over year so it is possible to see these

sorts of doubles and ramps and they've

got a great facility in arizona i would

love to visit the lucid facility maybe

one day they'll they'll actually care

about me kevin uh but it doesn't matter

uh look you're talking about the stock

itself

uh we've got 13 000 lucid air

reservations if they fill like half of

those or honestly if they fill a third

of those that's good so if they fill

four thousand or four thousand of these

total that's great uh now what's going

to happen though the other thing that's

going to happen is you're going to start

getting a less expensive product mix

coming in starting probably q1 q2 of an

xtr

so really right now there's not much

that we can do because we're not going

to be able to look at them on margin

efficiency we're not going to be able to

really do anything other than say

they're going to be losing lots of money

probably for the next year this is an

early stage startup with a valuation

already between x-ping and neos and it's

running on on momentum right now i love

the company i'm gonna be paying very

close attention to the company i feel

like i i'm well versed in vehicles

although i will not go as far as calling

myself a vehicle expert these are some

expectations that i have for neo now uh

worth noting that uh let's see here

lucid's dream delivery event is in

california lucid's planning to deliver

520 dream air editions and then move

down to the grand to touring versions uh

lucid and anticipates deliveries for the

touring and pure models to start

sometime in 2022 those are the less

expensive ones

lucid's also apparently going to be

using the 350 kilowatt hour of

superchargers

those are faster than the tesla v3s how

those are at about 250 kilowatt hours

however there are not a lot of these

chargers around at the time according to

the electrify america website which is

what lucid plans to use remember lucid

doesn't do their own charging network

like tesla does lucid doesn't plan to do

their own self-driving features like

tesla does in fact they're not even

launching with with self-driving uh even

like the autopilot at least from what

i'm aware of uh they're they're

launching stripped of these features and

that they'll have some kind of level two

self-driving like lane keep and that

that'll release with an over-the-air

update later but electrify america has

right now about one-fifth of the

superchargers that tesla does tesla's

got uh i want to say gosh tesla's got

over 3 000 charging stations

let me see here tesla investor

relations you can look these up you just

type in google tesla investor relations

you go to press release you go to their

actual

slide deck that's what you want to

download is their slide deck and when

you look at their downloaded slide deck

just scroll down to about the sixth

fifth or sixth page page six here you go

so tesla has three thousand two hundred

fifty four supercharging stations

and electrify america has one fifth of

those we don't know how many of those

stations are actually going to include

350 kilowatt hour chargers so you might

be stuck with a lot of slow chargers my

guess is they'll probably have about 20

percent of their locations having

superchargers which would mean that uh

they probably have somewhere around

terms of superchargers 130 supercharging

stations that actually have the 350

kilowatt which is about four percent of

their entire chargers are probably

somewhere super the 350 kilowatt

superchargers so i wouldn't get sold on

the marketing that if you get a lucid

you're gonna have that 350 kilowatt hour

charging you're probably only going to

run into that pretty rarely unless you

happen to live next to one uh and and

the tesla supercharging stations are are

much more ubiquitous at this point but

then again newer company here and i

think lucid's going to actually help

electrify america grow substantially as

demand for lucids grows i also expect

just like teslas you'll be able to

charge the lucids at any electric

charger whether it's a charge point or

blink or whatever it is so these are

things to know and yeah these are my

thoughts on lucid and tesla if you like

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see you next one goodbye

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