Watch BEFORE Tuesday & My BIG SHORT.

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that 69 off flash sale before it's gone

now we gotta talk catalysts for the week

because we've got a lot of them not only

do we have CPI to talk about and some of

the momentum revisions uh but we've got

to talk earnings as well and since today

is Monday well guess who reports on

Monday it's monday.com monday.com

reported they beat they're up about 10

in the pre-market but we'll see if that

actually lasts throughout the day but

what was interesting was if you bet on

cyber security last week you you could

have pulled off an easy trade and these

are the kind of Trades that we want to

you know start working pretty regularly

with our course members but last week

you could have pulled an easy trade

Fortinet came out with smashing earnings

and then that led to cloudflare's bead

in our opinion I mean it was it was not

necessarily one led to the other but it

was clearly a signal that cyber security

plays were still being bet on uh for

wins and they ended up coming out with

wins and so what did we have here

software service companies again beating

monday.com coming in with fourth quarter

revenue of 1499 Street was looking for

140. one uh their forecast smashed 2023

Revenue was expected to be 660. they're

looking at closer to a midpoint of 690

that's about eight nine percent of a

beat for the year that's fantastic if

they could pull it off they only lost

about six cents a share they were

expected to lose 42 cents per share so

uh a less money losing company or

smaller money losing company so great

job monday.com could actually be good

for software companies coming up that

still have to report whether that's

trade tasks although they're an

advertising we'll see whether that's

Salesforce we'll see TBD uh obviously uh

we've got uh CPI tomorrow let's quickly

just catch up on CPI and let's hit some

of the other catalysts for the week

because we've got a few catalysts coming

up so of course there's this potential

issue with the CPI report that because

of the revisions to CPI weightings we

actually expect that CPI ended in 2020

to higher than than we were originally

told that's not so much of an issue

because it's not like we're going back

and changing that data based on these

new weightings although there are always

revisions uh which wouldn't be surprised

to see some of that uh the the big thing

is now we're dealing with higher

weightings for housing and that's going

to end up being really good but probably

not until towards the end of this year

where we actually really start seeing

those owner equivalent rents and housing

as services start coming down that's

like lodging and rent right we really

want to see that anchor when we get to

that anchor it's going to be great it's

going to be fantastic to have housing

have a higher weight but unfortunately

in the interim it's going to be bad to

have housing have a greater weight

because we haven't actually seen those

declines yet so you do have this this

momentum of basically housing being a

lot stronger going into 2023 that could

lead to a bad CPI read tomorrow and

there's a reason why investors are

loading up basically on contracts to

protect themselves for example contracts

against a 10 decline on the S P 500 a 10

percent decline folks are now 1.7 times

more common than options that would

benefit from a 10 rally this is a 10 spy

put call ratio here uh on on 10 gains or

losses and that ratio is sitting at 1

point seven times that skew was sitting

at the highest level of skew against the

Spy this S P 500 since August of

2022. now keep in mind for some of you

who don't know if when I say spy Spy is

an ETF that you could use to trade the S

P 500 in you can't actually trade

directly in indexes or indices you could

trade directly in ETFs which basically

try to mirror the index small

clarification there but anyway spy is

one of those so that's just one that I

tend to regularly talk about here uh

anywho so uh there's a lot of hedging

that's coming up because of this CPI

read obviously uh the CPI read is

expected to be 0.5 month over month

headline point four percent core that

core is an issue because even if we meet

you're still looking at 4.8 percent on

core that means outside of food and gas

you're still looking at 4.8 annualized

inflation yes that's lower than the 6.2

percent we expect for headline but still

it's it's quite a chunk you know a

couple days ago we were sitting at point

three percent for core month over month

that was revised again to point four

percent last month we came in at point

three and that was revised up to 0.4

already so uh in my opinion you've got

you've got a potential for some

negativity here but the issue with

making bets on CPI is a lot of Traders

already have priced bearish bets in

pretty well so there's actually this

belief that hey look if we get a Miss on

CPI it's already built in like you're

not gonna make much money on your puts

that's the theory unless things really

go bad so things would actually have to

probably miss substantially to the

upside rather than just me so I think a

meat you're probably looking at

stability in the market uh if and if you

get a slight beat you're kind of I feel

like almost gonna get the eye roll so if

you get like a point one percent beat

you get sort of the eye roll from the

market where yes the s p and the NASDAQ

are gonna drop one or two percent you

know you're gonna see that right away

but I wouldn't be surprised that mostly

you kind of have an eye roll from the

markets because markets have kind of

already been trying to price in a lot of

that uh that pain so to speak for uh CPI

we'll see obviously we will see we don't

have that for sure answer yet but it's

something to pay attention to and we'll

see you tomorrow at 5 30 a.m that's in

about 24 hours from now uh and uh you

know hey I'll be covering it live so

hopefully you're here with me when those

numbers come out now the other thing to

keep in mind is if we do break to the

downside even by a point one percent

it's probably going to be even easier to

go green on markets because so many

bearish bets would have to basically get

covered uh and uh that's uh that that

would be nice to see here right so

here's the JP Morgan uh expectation on a

CPI and what the FED might do I think

it's quite interesting look at this so

this is and this is the next two CPI

reads the the JP Morgan's going ahead to

the next two CPI reads before we look at

that take a look on screen here we've

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hopefully you've appreciated this

breakdown and take advantage of that 69

off flash sale through Valentine's and

what you end up having your look at this

folks their bull case scenario is that

no we're not going to come out with a

6.2 percent CPI read but we're actually

going to come out with a 5 7 in the uh

the bull case scenario this is like

smoke and hopium right here this is

ridiculous

they would expect the FED to immediately

pause for March so a March 22nd pause if

inflation comes in this low to 5.7 this

is nutty okay the expectation is six two

boy if we could get headline in at five

at five seven uh moon but but I I don't

know I mean this this seems like it

would be ridiculous

and it also depends what the month over

month numbers are doing but that seems

like it'd be crazy they would expect the

10-year yield to then end at 3.3 percent

at the end of February at the end of the

first quarter 3.25 uh and uh and then

they they look at the yield curve ending

uh actually uninverted by the end of the

year uh and then potentially the Dixie

falling with with some more BuyBacks

their base case scenario so this is JP

Morgan's estimate of what's actually

going to happen are you ready

base case scenario

5.9 the estimate right now from Wall

Street is six two their base case is

five nine uh and so as a result they

expect to get one more 25 BP hike and

then a pause in this base case scenario

and then in the next report they're

expecting a 5.6 and their base in their

bull case scenario they're five seven in

tomorrow's report and then a 5-0 I mean

this this is a pretty pretty interesting

one now here's their bear case oh man so

their bear case is that instead of

getting 6.2 we get 6.3 okay their worst

case scenario is just a 0.1 hike uh or

or beat on CPI now what's interesting

about that is they bring you in at uh a

four percent 10-year treasury that's not

going to be good for Real Estate uh

after the month potentially 4.3 that's

back to like the October November highs

when we had like 7.3 interest rates in

real estate this would be terrible uh

4.3 by the end of the first quarter so

you really if if you want to see real

estate bottom out here you really want

do not want the bear case to play out

tomorrow tomorrow you really want the

bull case to play up now what odds are

they giving this so on the bull case

let's see here what do they say while

we're considering just the near-term

setup it's worth noting that there have

only been four periods where the Spy has

printed negatively consecutively in

consecutive years okay only four periods

where the s s p 500 has been negative

for two years in a row is basically what

they're saying the depression World War

II the 70s and the tech bubble of the

early 2000s major drivers of the bull

case include CPI continuing to fall

earnings beating expectations Top Line

growth great fantastic now they do have

this bear case uh and this comes out to

economic deterioration feeding earnings

and then of course Global liquidity less

cash to actually do BuyBacks less cash

to invest uh interesting okay so so

that's sort of jpm's take I you know

usually I like looking at jpm's take I

don't know why but I feel like this is a

little bit

um a little hope yummy dare I say I

don't know that's it seems a little uh

well well optimistic let's put it that

way they do throw in here housing prices

uh on chart here you can clearly see

we're well off the peak that we saw

somewhere around May uh April May of

2022 well-off national median a home

price a well down from about 420 to

about 380. so seeing that sort of nice

decline JPM pointing that out here you

do have that used vehicle index popping

off again one of the reasons by the way

you're seeing that is is really is

substantial decline in the amount of

Supply that we have for vehicles so

you're still facing supply chain

crunches essentially uh in vehicles so

so that's CPI you do tomorrow also end

up getting Coca-Cola reporting you get

Marriott reporting Airbnb and upstart

Reporting now uh you know some potential

issues there with Airbnb uh airbn

somebody wrote and I thought this piece

was really actually quite fascinating

but with Airbnb there was a uh Business

Insider piece that reported on a manager

of 95 Phoenix area airbnbs stunned that

half of their homes are empty over Super

Bowl weekend now the price they were

asking was absolutely nutty uh in my

opinion but they said they cut their

asking price for a night for the Super

Bowl from twelve hundred dollars for the

night to 5 500 I'm like my God twelve

hundred dollars for an Airbnb in Phoenix

that seems nutty and they cut their

price to 500 uh apparently still half of

them uh unavailable or unfilled I should

say not unavailable they're available

half of them were unfilled and they're

suggesting here some U.S spots are

experiencing a glut of short-term

rentals that can hurt hosts booking

calendars it's actually a massive

concern that I have with Airbnb earnings

coming up I personally think we're

walking into an Airbnb bubble a vacation

rental bubble that's mostly because I

believe that a lot of people who bought

airbnbs to rent them out and and hear

this one out because I I think it's very

reasonable okay I'm a big fan of the

real estate industry and I love real

estate I've got a housing startup at

househack.com so my take is you have a

lot of people in the Bull Run who are

like oh I can't lose money on real

estate kind of like 2008 right and so

what they do is they buy a property at

insane prices and they look at it and go

okay well if I wanted to rent this out

long term I'd get 2 800 bucks in rent

for this say I don't know 500 000

property uh but if I rented out on

Airbnb I'm gonna get eight grand and my

mortgage is gonna be five grand let's

say so I'm gonna put little money down

and my mortgage is gonna be five grand

so they look at it from a Airbnb point

of view and they're like I'm a cash flow

three grand let's go baby you know after

fees or whatever let's say uh and I'm

gonna manage myself it's gonna be my

side hustle I'm gonna make all this

money on Airbnb and so but the long-term

rent is actually 2 200 less than what

their total payments are so in other

words they're they're massively

overpaying for the property because of

the idea that they could Airbnb it out

and make this crazy return well the

problem is you're seeing that hotels

after sort of this cover disaster have

gotten so competitive that I mean you're

almost stupid not to go into a hotel

because the hotels are so much freaking

cheaper

in many different areas right now and

you could get a sweet sweet so to speak

in many hotels for the price of of an

Airbnb and then in the good hotels you

actually have a restaurant in them you

got a bar I love hotels with a bar

gotta love it when the alcohol is right

there okay anyway

um so you've got some awesome things

with hotels and hotels have really

gotten hurt during the pandemic and so

they've been cutting prices and becoming

very very efficient so now you have

service and you have on-site amenities

uh you know maybe that's a larger pool

or a pool at all uh you've got maybe

that more consistent service because

you've got folks over at Airbnb

sometimes uh finding that the service

isn't necessarily as consistent and so I

think because of this you're potentially

setting up what I think is a situation

where a lot of people are realizing crap

I'll just go in a hotel rather than stay

in an Airbnb and what you end up with is

the situation where all of a sudden

people are renting out their airbnbs for

what they thought they were going to get

now they're like well maybe I'll just

rent it long term dang but if I rent it

long term I'm upside down maybe I should

just sell it and take the L now worst

case that they put little money down

they can't even sell it because they're

upside down now they just lose a ton of

money and eventually probably end up

selling it anyway so I think you're

probably there's a good chance you're

going to end up seeing sort of a glut of

inventory come on the market of people

who need to sell out of their homes

because they just can't sell on Airbnb

anymore and I actually think it bodes

terribly for the Airbnb earnings I don't

know if we'll see that manifest yet in

the earnings that that come out tomorrow

uh but but let's just say uh vacasa gave

me the biggest red flags you know this

was the last earnings call or earnings

report from vacasa and they're basically

talking about how many difficulties they

were having uh in the third quarter

going into the fourth quarter and

basically this fear that all of a sudden

uh they're they're just not making the

money they were getting too much

variability in bookings too much recent

softness in bookings uncertain macro

environment meaningfully reducing the

capital we're allocating to our

Acquisitions model because basically the

numbers don't make sense anymore and

it's become harder to actually uh get

properties rented out on Airbnb so I

think you could potentially run into a

big Airbnb bubble uh and I don't know

that with certainty but let's just say

I'm I'm bearish on Tuesday's Airbnb

report uh you've got upstart reports as

well on Tuesday Wednesday we get retail

spending a December decline with

somewhere around 1.1 percent biggest

drop uh for that we've seen in quite a

while the estimate now is actually 1.9

growth excluding Autos point eight

percent growth autos and gas point seven

percent growth and going back to a for a

moment back to CPI or for to Airbnb it's

possible that you really had like a soft

December and maybe the numbers start

coming out better in January who knows

maybe that's a little bit more of the

Goldilocks Theory but uh who knows who

knows uh anyway hotels also have great

amenities those instant gratification

exactly yeah so uh then you've got

Roblox trade desk craft Generac Shopify

Roku and Cisco all reporting Wednesday a

you've got UK inflation reporting

Wednesday which comes a day after our

inflation read in December their

inflation was 10.5 percent that's down

from 10.7 percent uh the month prior in

November Empire manufacturing comes out

Wednesday we're looking at negative 18

versus a 32.9 prior January industrial

production is expected to come out we

are looking at up 0.5 percent that's

versus the decline of 0.7 that we

experienced in December on Thursday

we'll get

PPI the producer price index I wouldn't

be surprised if if the CPI comes in low

and the PPI comes in high wouldn't

surprise me because I think producers

are feeling higher prices than consumers

are going to continue to be able to

support I think consumers are sort of

refusing to continue to pay in certain

cases here so we're looking at a PPI

expectation at the moment of 0.4 percent

month over month last month was negative

0.5 percent and then X food and energy

we're looking at uh 0.3 percent last was

0.01 year over year coming down to 5.4

on PPI expected so we'll see building

permits expected uh for uh Thursday to

be 13.50 the last report no joke was

1337 on the revision

uh that's 1.337 a million a building

permits housing starts expected to

decline month over month negative point

or negative 2.01 percent and building

permits expected to be actually up

potentially one percent so so we'll see

you do get some more SAS businesses here

like uh data dog you'll get a DraftKings

and then you'll get some others like

Hasbro Dropbox and Redfin on Thursday

personally I'm bearish on anything real

estate related so red fan sarium I'm not

very optimistic when volumes go down in

a real estate recession uh you know real

estate agents leave the biz so

um

ah cheers to Coffee not very optimistic

so uh those are some of the biggest

catalysts we're looking at personally

for this next week uh you know I'm I'm

gonna I'm gonna run some numbers and and

look into what the expectations are a

little bit more closely for Airbnb with

course members and our course member

live soon but uh we'll see Cuban friends

that say Airbnb is going bananas you're

saying same same in Cuba uh let's see we

went on vacation last month to Costa

Rica to talk to a local who said Airbnb

is booming there people who make 300 a

month can now make 300 a week by

switching to Airbnb nice uh that's why

Uncle Jesse says same in Cuba man that

reminds me of Full House I used to love

Full House uh Cuban friend says it's

going bananas

well there's some very good anecdotes I

have to say that's pretty good so we'll

have to look into potentially those

International expansions although how

much is international expected to be as

a percentage of revenue for Airbnb I

don't know and who knows maybe maybe Q4

is a trough for them or they ended up

Surviving I have no idea uh we'll see

yeah we'll also be talking about

shorting Builder stocks potentially so

we'll have a lot to talk about and of

course member lives over the next week

here so that'll be fun uh anyway those

are those are the big catalysts that we

want to pay attention to