Why the Market CRASHED Today | Meet Kevin Report [Jan 7].

oh boy horrible data on the economy this

morning suggesting stagflation we're

going to dive deep to see if that's

actually what's going on but in the

meantime it is leading Futures funding

spreads and hedge funds to indicate that

institutions are dumping stocks and

they're not just dumping stocks to sell

they're dumping to cover all the debt

they took on to buy stocks in the rally

over the last 6 months we got to talk

about this and explained why the NASDAQ

dropped

1.78% today why micro strategy was down

99.9% coin base down 8% paler down 7.8

Tesla was down

4% Red Robin cormet Burgers down 6% a

lot to talk about here Mark Zuck also

wants to end censorship and move to

Texas yeah a lot to unpackage on that

one I'll give you the quick scoop on

that and give you my opinion on this and

Donald Trump apparently wants to take

over Greenland and the Panama Canal and

may use the military if

necessary we'll talk about that don't

worry we we will go deep on these items

we've also got some folks talking about

losing money on real estate investments

in Austin Texas and debating whether

they should sell the property or rent it

out I'll give you my opinion on what's

going on in this video California is

also on fire again with wins potentially

up to one 100 mph later today right now

gusts around 50 to 70 mph knocking down

power lines especially around the LA

area causing the Pacific Palisades to

Now Catch Fire oh boy there is a lot so

let's get started on this meet Kevin

report news that makes you

money first let's start with macro data

like I said wow this hit hard now I went

deep on this with course members this

morning as the data came out we were

standing by with almost a thousand of

y'all course members live together and

many more thousands of you afterwards

who watched it on replay already but the

ism numbers and joltz numbers that came

out this morning really shook markets

things were green until this data came

out oh boy so what happened well we had

more job openings than expected which

should be a good thing in fact we had

sign significantly more expansion in

professional and business services in

November than we expected now keep in

mind this jolts data references November

so it's kind of post Trump election

people think it's sort of the Trump bump

and so it indicates White Collar hiring

which is good because that's been an

area that's been lagging for a while so

it's unclear if this is going to keep

going if these job openings are actually

going to turn into real hiring but both

on the seasonally adjusted and on season

adjusted we saw a significant bump in

professional and business services

hiring which seems to be good right this

this is a good thing we we see more

potential hiring we did see the quits

rate move down to 1.9% from 2.1% which

usually you see that in rougher

economies people don't want to quit

their job because it's harder to get a

new job talked a lot about that

yesterday and the layoff rate did take

up a smidge to 1.1% from 1.0 none of

that really a big deal if anything this

joltz report should have been nice it

was kind kind of a good jolts report I

mean really if you look at what Nick T

wrote this morning there's really no

major fear that should be coming out of

these numbers in terms of the jolts

report telling us one thing or another

other than the layoff rate remains low

the job quitting rate is pretty low

which we usually only see that tank in a

recession the hiring rate is pretty low

as well we're back at 2010 2009 levels

in the hiring rate which isn't great but

you did see a take up in the opening

rate so this should be optimistic where

the market should be looking at this

going oh okay you know maybe things are

turning around maybe the job market is

stabilizing just like the Federal

Reserve wants well unfortunately the ism

data for December which came out this

morning gave us much better insight into

what's actually going on and I'll tell

you it's exactly why the market took a

little tanky dud lot today and it ain't

great

so the ism Services data came out and

led to almost an instantaneous selloff

on stagflationary fears why it's simple

the services index came in a little bit

hotter than expected no big deal

everything was a little warmer than

expected frankly in November and

December thanks again to the Trump bump

but the Price's paid section came in at

64.4 versus 57.5 expected in 582 prior

in English the market hat hates the idea

about the FED potentially keeping rates

higher be for longer because of an

inflationary impetus so this is really

bad the employment and New Order numbers

came out as expected but the market

absolutely hates seeing that rates could

go even higher and higher is exactly

where they went the 10e is almost at 4.7

which is wild the 2 years only sitting

at 4.29 but that's also pretty decent ly

high but when you spread those you get a

spread of 40 basis points remember what

happens between 50 to 90 basis points of

a spread which we're Rising towards pain

in markets usually in fact sometimes

actually almost always after an

inversion of the Y curve of recession

we're at 40 now so we keep getting

closer and closer and closer to that

breaking point now why like what was in

this data because what this data really

feels like or what the market is

reacting with is almost this feeling

that you're in a and I apologize in

advance for the constant Aviation

references but I feel like we're we're

in a plane and everybody's kind of

looking at the plane like this where

it's like okay it's nose up oh it must

be climbing look at that beautiful plane

up there look nose up it's climbing and

then you get some of this hot data it's

like oh look look it keeps tipping its

nose up it's nose up oh look it's it's

it's climbing this is wonderful you know

everybody looking in from the outside

including the Federal Reserve is like oh

look the economy is doing great it's

gaining altitude we're not coming in for

a soft Landing we got no Landing baby

but Pilots look at this or a lot of

economists looking at the data and

they're like you're setting up for a

stall and stalls don't happen gently

when a plane stalls the nose of that

sucker

tanks and things happen

extremely rapidly in a stall it's not

good I mean that's also how you cure

stall you you know NOS down right we can

talk all about that later we'll do that

in an aviation video but the point is

the stall brings you to a ground pretty

dang rapidly and that's what people are

afraid of right now that potentially

everything looks like as we're losing

that speed and losing momentum it looks

like we're still chugging along people

are like see everything's fine but

really we're in such an unstable

position that soon we might be

feeling why oh because the Federal

Reserve is telling us oh we got to be

worried about inflation again so we're

going to keep rates higher for longer do

we though is that actually what this ISM

data told us well not in my opinion

because when I went deep into the ism

data I found the following I found that

on average over the last 4 months the

number of businesses reporting the same

prices over the last 4 months was 73.6

5% today in today's report we had

73.4% in other words below that average

but let's just call it the same no

change in prices paid the vast majority

of businesses almost three out of every

four businesses said nothing's changing

in prices okay well then why did this

index on the right side go up so much

well it's because the number of

businesses that reported lower prices

fell in December only 2.9

and you had a little bit of an uptake

like in September of the percentage

higher and that led this index higher

now this doesn't actually suggests that

there's a rapid expansion of prices it

suggests that in certain fringes prices

are moving and we're getting volatility

in this data so the market is

potentially responding to stagflationary

fears that aren't actually

stagflationary I mean look at Germany

Germany just came out with a hot CPI

report an inflation report everybody's

like oh my gosh I thought Germany was in

recession this must be

stagflationary well nobody actually

Dives a little bit deeper did you know

this I'm going to guess you didn't and

it is okay but did you know that Germany

doesn't actually report core

CPI maybe you did maybe didn't doesn't

matter the point is we're reacting to

Germany's hot CPI and when we pull back

the layer we go oh that's because of

food and energy and why are Energy

prices going up well natural gas is

skyrocketing why because it's winter and

there are reports of potential polar

winds coming in again thing that happens

every few years it leads natural gas

prices whether through speculation or

reality to Skyrocket that's just what's

been happening so what a surprise but

the point is the market doesn't really

care in the short term the Market's just

going to trade based off of what

whatever the market thinks at that time

and the move and and what's working at

the time and the move that's working

right now is yep everything

stagflationary sell bonds and

inflation's coming back so that is

what's taking hold right now and once

that trade gets going it accelerates

there's a problem with that we're going

to talk about that problem in just a

moment and it has a lot to do with debt

because there is a chart that is warning

of really big change in the ways that

institutions are responding to the

amount of debt that they have

outstanding this is a big red flag we

got to talk about it along with what

Donald Trump said today what's going on

with

Facebook and the real estate topic a lot

but before we keep going on some of

those other topics we really got to

finish this ISM talk because yes there

are stagflationary fears but I want you

to look at some of the commentary that's

coming out over why there might be some

fears about prices going up let's look

at what the ism report actually said

that respondents are actually talking

about when it comes to inflation prices

or business activity and services quote

preparations are underway to diversify

Supply in anticipation for tariffs all

right if in Q4 you buy a bunch of goods

or you basically set yourself up for

tariffs to affect your business you

might Overstock in the fourth quarter

this is bad because if you don't sell

out all of that in the first quarter you

end up with too much stuff too many

goods and supplies or service time and

then you have to cut your prices and you

actually end up with deflation so it's

weird but the market always seems to

work in these really contrarian ways

today everybody's like oh no oh no oh no

stagflation mark my words if things keep

going the way they are we'll be in q1 or

Q2 and we'll be screaming about

deflation because maybe the tariffs

didn't conduct the or cause the

inflation that we were expecting or

because people just overstocked in the

fourth quarter because of fears over

tariffs which may not even come we

talked about Trump and tariffs yesterday

but I'll tell you this I know Trump

looks at the stock market every single

day if the stock market's red he ain't

going to do tariffs because he'll

threaten tariffs but he'll be too

nervous about the market crashing and

then that being a scar in his

legacy so take a look at this this is

Extreme here's a construction industry

tariff threats from incoming admin from

the incoming Administration have been

making suppliers reluctant to hold

pricing for more than a year as projects

can take 2 years plus budgeting is

getting difficult similar to

2021 and 2022 when supply chain

disruptions caused chaos in pricing wait

a minute so you're telling me the crisis

we're seeing right now in stagflation is

because of fear that maybe there will be

tariffs and everybody's buying stuff

like crazy now well if that's true then

this prices paid level going up new

orders level going up and basically you

know numbers going up like ISM you know

manufacturing or Services the headline

numbers going up those are all fugazi

built up for the fourth quarter and I

don't know that's going to repeat in q1

because people are prepared preparing

for that uncertainty and apparently in

an extreme way to where now all of a

sudden there are quite literally it's

listed in a different section of this

ISM report but backlogs of containers

that need to be unloaded because of so

much buying now originally or I should

say ordinarily we would look at that and

say oh this is a sign of a really strong

economy right really good economy but so

far everything everybody is telling us

is it's because of tariffs not because

of massive demand if anything what we

see is we're moving workers offshore to

save on costs that's companies taking it

in the margin because their pee's too

small we are concerned about tariff

activity but we're hoping for the best

there seems to be a lot of uncertainty

about tariffs and purchasing decisions a

lot of weight and C customers are

slowing

down okay so a lot of anticipation of

tariffs leading to potentially a bump of

these num numbers and some skewing of

numbers that on average are not

stagflationary and forget the average

for a moment when you actually read

company earnings calls you should know

that we're not in a reinflation era but

that's not going to stop markets from

Trading as if we are the problem is the

more the markets trade as if they're

stagflation the higher bond yields go

all we're doing is driving up the nose

of of that plane more and more and more

and the more we do that the more we're

pulling back on the stick the more

violent the stall is going to be and

those rates will come down plummeting

rapidly

unfortunately and likely with a

recession so

anyway what does all of this mean well

in my opinion the pendulum is swinging

to far to the stagflationary side

because of reports like this now the

bottom line here is the setup should be

a cause for concern and when we look at

something like the funding markets we

could see what's going on with

institutionalsales take a look at this

this is called a funding spreads chart

I'm going to try to explain this as

simply as

possible let's pretend for a moment that

instead of saying funding spreads this

said cost to borrow okay that's a little

bit easier to understand

when nobody wants to borrow debt borrow

you know money to buy stocks what do you

think happens to the cost to borrow well

with plummets because it's like oh

nobody's borrowing all right let's lower

the cost until people borrow again what

do you think happens when everybody

wants to borrow debt money to go buy

stocks well the cost to borrow goes up

okay the red line is the cost to borrow

line up up up up up up up up up up up up

up notice how as the cost to borrow goes

up because more people are taking on

more debt institutions hedge funds

retail you name it everybody's going in

on margin because the stock market can't

fall I literally see comments of people

saying things

like you know Kevin I don't think there

could be a market correction

because everybody has an app in their

pocket today where they can buy stocks

and they're just going to buy the debt

so therefore there could never be a

stock market correction again

okay there's sure as hell of a sign

enough for

me

anyway as you notice when the line goes

up it implies more people are borrowing

to go buy stocks and wow what a surprise

the S&P 500 went up with that line well

what's happened since December 18th well

according to John Marshall of

S&T who has published a quote

significant warning the funding spread

plummeting is a really big red flag the

reason you have this really big red flag

is because on December 18th Jerome

Powell flip-flopped and it marked the

peak the flip-flop in the funding

spreads level on December 18th Drome

Powell told us that they want to keep

rates higher in essence because of

impending tariffs two months before that

he told us we're just going to wait to

see what happens with tariffs and then

we'll react all of a sudden now it's

yeah uh we're going to try to Stave off

the inflation ahead of time so we'll

just keep rates higher for longer

basically and pencil and fuel rate Cuts

well that led the markets to go oh my

gosh fed you all could be making a

massive and terrible mistake keeping

rates way too high for way too long and

ultimately push the economy into that

stall Point breaking point and

potentially even into an unrecoverable

stall because we have so little

altitude that red line is a warning

sign Mr Marshall I'm going to show you

what he wrote I don't want you to think

it's me it's Mr Marshall Marshall

Marshall he wrote this yesterday mind

you before the market started selling

off

today we view this chart as a

significant warning sign for Equity

investors the December move was not just

year-end related the episode continues

to look like a December 2021 move in

positioning when worries about monetary

policy triggered professional investors

selling ahead of the 10-month decline in

the S&P 500 in other words he's

forecasting a 10-month decline just like

in 2022 he also says while Equity

valuations have been historically high

for many months this is the first time

we're seeing significant selling in both

of these positioning measures in years

hedge funds selling equities in each of

the past five sessions and at the

fastest Pace in the past seven months 7

plus months uh and then of course that

funding

chart this is a red flag this is not

good and so it's something to pay

attention to now is it saying you know

Run for the hills sell everything no of

course not I I don't ever like to come

across as an extremist in fact I always

like to come across as suggesting hey

I'm going to keep giving you my advice

every single day and one place you can

sign up for for free for more of this

sort of stuff make sure you get my Alpha

report every morning uh the market is

open just click here if you're us or

canidate or here if you're International

you can also get my Daily Wealth email

if you want you can click on that it's

over at meetkevin.com you can check uh

check out the website I actually built

the website myself so don't make fun of

me but I kind

of I like doing stuff myself sometimes

but anyway so uh let me know if there

are any bugs I will fix them but anyway

uh so sorry for all the aviation

analogies let's keep moving on with

what's really important oh history what

does history tell us usually when the

Federal Reserve starts cutting rates

rates fall but rates have now risen 110

basis points as the Federal Reserve cut

interest rates 100 basis points there

were two times this has happened in

history before one was 1998 which did

not come after an inverted yield curve

and and it came while employment was

expanding the 27 weeks unemployed number

was actually declining like things were

actually good in the economy in '

98 the other time absent that good data

was 2001 leaving us similar to the 2001

level in history which isn't great

because obviously that led to about an

18mon sell-off in the stock market and a

lot of people pissed about investing in

stocks all of a sudden all the people

with apps in their pockets are pulling

the apps out anymore Howard marks in his

latest credit memo has five cautionary

warnings valuations an enthusiasm bubble

around AI mag 7 concentration passive

index buying and suggest that a sharp

and sudden selloff is possible just like

thec bubble which to me feels exactly

like the jolts measure or not the jolts

the stall measure I've been talking

about anyway enough about the market

let's talk a little bit more micro Mark

Zuckerberg had a lot to say today about

censorship in fact they're now going to

copy Community notes this is very

interesting he literally shouted out X I

mean obviously everybody was going to

make the comparison anyway so we got

ahead of that by saying hey we're to do

community notes kind of like how X does

it we're going to get rid of fact

Checkers and we're going to simplify our

policies because complex systems censor

things mistakenly too much and fact

Checkers are too biased according to

reports from employees inside of meta a

lot of people say that inside of meta

are suggesting that meta is trying to

suck up to trumpan and that meta is

sending a message that facts no longer

matter and that there's going to be an

influx of racist and transphobic

content but Mark suck says hey we're

just going to bring politics back we're

going to get rid of the filters we'll

solely focus on illegal and high

severity issues like serious threats

that are are illegal even on X like

threatening to kill someone for example

we'll remove that but on the rest we'll

just Community note stuff and I have to

say my opinion this is actually a great

thing uh I am as somebody who has the

ability to write Community notes I've

written very few Community notes but I

like to read them what I really enjoy

about having that feature though is I

get to see uh proposed Community notes

for example here Customs and Border

Protection announced They seized a

rocket launcher and two rocket propelled

grenades hidden in a car headed to

Mexico again these Rockets were heading

to Mexico from the US okay so if I click

on the proposed Community note the

Rockets featured in the photo lack the

booster charge and are inert

nonfunctional the RPG shown as

non-functional and is a replica training

aid I mean that's kind of a useful note

and then they sort of give you a link

over here in terms of like I guess where

you could buy inert RPG replicas kind of

interesting I like that extra detail I I

wish some more of these proposed

Community notes were visible and what I

really like is when you go through this

sometimes you could just see a uh like a

debate going on in the community notes

like here I'll just look at Elon Musk

for example if we go to Elon he he gets

community noted like every single post

okay there first one see there's a

debate over here oh like the time

starmer called Donald Trump a racist and

then you get responses over here uh

adding some details about who's who uh

starmer has supported senior members of

the labor party and people leaving links

and citations to things you can see

these go on for I mean there are like

six or seven of these and then you

always get these people who just write

nnn which is no note needed no note

needed stop abusing Community notes

honestly it's kind of like a messy Forum

but usually the top ones add the most

context and people can kind of vote up

or down on whether these are useful or

not and it's kind of a cool system

because it mostly gives people an equal

voice especially if you're a community

notor uh which I mean theoretically

anybody should be able to just join the

community notes I put a little app in

and in like 3 weeks I was approved

didn't do anything special and I haven't

done anything with it but I think it's

kind of cool so anyway uh I'm a big fan

of that also Mark Zuck slammed

California by saying that they're going

to move their safety and content

moderators to Texas instead of

California where there will be quote

less concern uh over the bias of our

teams I think this is mostly a PR move

it's basically saying hey everybody

thinks that because we're company based

in California we're a woke company maybe

that's true to some extent uh so by

moving our safety and content to Texas

that'll balance us

out I don't know if that'll actually

make any difference at all but big fan

of using well

frankly Community notes now this is

interesting the Associated Press just

reported that the new orle sorry not the

New Orleans the uh cyber truck bomber

outside of the Las Vegas Trump Hotel

apparently used generative AI including

chat GPT to help plan the attack now

that's an interesting

one uh they don't really give details on

this now not at all that's just sort of

like the intro paragraph and then they

just give a summary of what happened but

apparently searches on chat GPT indicate

he was looking for information on

explosives ammunition where fireworks

were legal where he could buy them uh

and and some other aspects again no

exact quotes given just rough ideas that

he was using chat GPT to help play is

attack this is actually one of the

reasons that I've mentioned uh to a lot

of people before especially those in

finance or banking that it's actually

not a bad idea that if you use services

like GPT that you go into them every so

often and just delete all your chats

because I do believe that in the future

these chats are going to be subpoena and

so if you ever get into a lawsuit and

you know you put all of your weaknesses

or whatever into chat GPT what if

somebody can one I don't even know if I

can delete it it's not giving me any

kind of confirmation that things are

deleted oh no oh

no who knows maybe it's all stored

somewhere anyway right and this is why

people say turn off the memory in in the

settings for these sort of things but

just keep that in mind that your data is

out there when you use these apps and

that's sort of a good reminder to go in

there and uh uh you know delete some of

the history that you have I like doing

it uh and uh I it actually worked it

deleted all my history I think it's a

good idea for everybody to do that every

so often maybe even weekly okay maybe

not so important for everybody but we'll

see anyway so that's a little bit on

meta I mean really is it a big deal yeah

it kind of is I mean it's a win for Elon

Musk it's a win for Donald Trump it's

basically a shout out to musk and Trump

it'll probably help move the stock up

it'll make the stock maybe to some seem

sort of less woke and maybe you could

even put the meta stock in a trumpan

ETFs or whatever right so it's probably

a good move all around I think Zuck did

a great thing here and I'm a big fan of

the community noting idea because then

the public can sort of vote up the best

notes I like that and I think Community

noting is a lot better than what you've

seen over at Wikipedia which is

basically just controlled by people who

mostly lean left at least in my

experience okay A little bit of drama

circulating what's going going on with

carvana this is mostly because of the

Hindenburg uh hit piece suggesting that

some of their growth numbers have been

entirely misleading or potentially even

fraudulent the CEO went on to CNBC for

an interview and when he was asked about

how they're becoming more profitable he

basically said they're working on

efficiencies at the company uh and

basically said hey actually I shouldn't

even say basically he said I don't want

to bore you with the details of how

we're becoming more profitable and so

that led a lot of people to sort of

scratch their heads going I don't I

don't I don't know is is like is it that

hard to find out like to explain is it

that complicated so what are you doing

that's making you more profitable then

does Hindenburg have a

point all I know is carvana was up 5%

today so I don't know how much of a

difference is making it's down 1% year

to date obviously it's down from its 256

Peak but it's way up from where it was

at like $4 a share uh at the end of 202

to when the company was about to go

bankrupt had it not been for

renegotiating with its Bond holders they

would have probably gone bankrupt and

obviously in renegotiating they were

able to reestablish themselves so good

for them and we could do a deep dive

video on carvana leave me a comment in

the uh notes down below if you want but

just a super quick look at what's going

on at carvana you could definitely see

growth in Topline Revenue which people

generally like looking for this is a 30

% growth rate in retail vehicle sales

and when you look at net income you can

see net income well is a lot less but

part of that has to do with uh some of

their debt extinguishment and the gain

that they realized because of their debt

extinguishment uh so they were actually

if you remove this losing money from

their operations at the end of 2023 and

they're actually making about 69 cents

in a month period which isn't bad

because it means they're making some

money again which is great as far as

their valuation well this is something

that a lot of people have different

opinions on look at it this way if you

take carvana as a company trading for

$198 a share with

$1.37 of earnings per share expected for

Q4 you know ending December 31st which

is already over they're trading for

about 144 times earnings In fairness

though they are expected to grow

earnings in excess of 70% per year for

the next 4 years so that only puts them

at about a tweg with that really high PE

ratio if they could keep that growth

going so who knows maybe a deep dive for

carvana is in store and leave me a

comment down below if that's what you're

looking for as far as China it's

interesting to look at this chart to see

what's going on with the percentage of

vehicles in production

in China uh especially as a percentage

of Next Generation Vehicles look at this

in 2023 China produced over

33% of all Next Generation which would

be hybrid or battery electric vehicles

in the world and this number is

skyrocketing I would guess that if it

weren't for restrictions on importing

Chinese vehicles into America we'

probably all be driving Chinese vehicles

then a real estate question came up so

on on Reddit somebody posted the

following we need to sell our house that

we bought less than 2 years ago that's

always a bad idea the selling costs

alone to sell your house are insane I

don't recommend this we needed to sell

our house that we bought less than 2

years ago we are looking at a loss of

around

$22,000 with where the market is right

now in Austin so honestly their loss

will probably be greater than this once

they start getting hit with requests for

repairs vacancy moving cost Furniture

cost repairs some needs a roof

replacement honestly they'll probably

lose somewhere around 50 Grand how

devastating is this we were first-time

home buyers and admittedly didn't quite

know what we were doing have any of you

taking a taken a loss like this we could

rent it out however the rent wouldn't

cover the mortgage we would be at a loss

of about $3600 over the year if we

rented it out and then sold it next year

we would probably be at less of a loss

however it could take a while to sell

and I'm not sure I want to gamble having

two mortgages at once any thoughts or

advice all right look here's the the

answer Rachel

silver first I don't know what your

personal income situation is but if yall

can afford the $3,600 a month in my

opinion consider this $3600 a month an

investment into the property because

frankly you're probably paying down more

than this in principle every single year

if you're paying down $500 a month in

principal on your loan you're probably

paying down $6,000 off of your loan

every single year and you're only

putting $3,600 into it so you're

actually up you're just rearranging

where your money is in the house piggy

bank or in your savings account piggy

bank or I don't know in your sock drawer

or wherever you keep your extra cash the

downside of selling it now is frankly

your loss is going to be a lot higher

than this again I expect it's going to

be $50,000 but let's just say your loss

is

$222,000 well divide $22,000 which some

of this you've already lost because of

equity uh potentially but it could also

just represent the selling cost 2 and 1

half% to One agent you know maybe 1% if

you hire a discount agent yourself but

then you still got 1% for escort title

you still got to pay uh for repairs and

vacancy and transition cost you're going

to be spending somewhere around 6 to 8%

to sell your house that's probably where

most of this loss is so if you kept it

you're probably at zero which is good

but if you sell it let's just say it's

22k well divide that by 3600 it would

take you 6 years of paying 36 $600 to

get to a $2,200 $222,000 loss so just

keep it for 6 years you think it'll

probably go up again in 6 years I don't

know maybe not it's Austin after all

what happened in Austin Well Austin is

an easy place to build one of the

reasons why my real estate company house

Haack did not buy in Texas specifically

in Austin is because Austin was a covid

Boom Town Co boom toown where everybody

moved to because of the freedom away

from mask mandates and you know America

work from home

whatever it's also very easy to build so

when the population shot up during Co a

lot of people got into speculating on

building in Texas and now you have an

excess of Supply because now since it

takes two to three years to get that

construction to come online you

basically had a bunch of people come in

prices shot up now you don't have a

bunch of people coming in but Supply

real estate supply has shot up because

all that building is coming online so

now this mismatch is leading prices to

fall could it keep going of course in my

opinion keep it forget about it you got

a built-in 30-year fix trate mortgage

and if you got it two years ago honestly

you probably got a pretty good rate on

the interest rate as well my guesses

they have an interest rate of under

4% Goldman Sachs suggests that real

estate prices are roughly flat year

over-year with uh inventory continuing

to moderate this is now Nationwide

rather than just Texas they see an

uptake in real estate activity coming as

perspective buyers move off of the

sidelines post the election personally

I've only seen this in the higher end

Market not so much in the lower-end

market because the lower end Market

still can't afford to buy a damn

home it's also cheaper to rent right now

and recover from hurricanes in the

Southeast existing for sale Supply was

23% below November of 2019 so still low

Supply leading prices to rise 4%

year-over-year uh which I I guess they

somewhat consider roughly flat but

anyway new single family home sales were

14% above the 2015 to 19 average up 2%

year-over year that's new construction

so you're getting a lot more new

construction uh rather than this

existing Supply which is below that's in

part due to interest rate lock in this

is in part due to accelerated new

construction thanks of course to the

pandemic then we get into quiet layoffs

apparently JP Morgan is expecting to

force everybody back to work 5 days a

week

people basically say this is a way of

quietly trying to fire people without

openly firing people it's a quiet way of

doing layoffs you also had uh I think it

was oh what was his name you had a big

set of layoffs this morning at um Ray

Delio's firm that's right Bridgewater

Bridgewater layoffs uh that was a little

bit of surprise uh that came as a bit of

a surprise to me Bridgewater Capital cut

7% of its staff in an effort to remain

Nimble I mean to me that's just a

colloquialism for saying yeah we want to

have money available when things change

in the marketplace you're cutting about

90 employees said the person this hasn't

been publicly announced yet the firm

whose headcount is now going back to

2023 levels will continue hiring

selectively blah blah blah they're

focused on their goals blahy blahy blahy

blahy let's be real the companies want

more money in their bottom line so in

the event that the market tanks they

have money to go shopping now here's an

interesting one there's a meme stock

ticker RR that's been rocketing over the

last 6 weeks it's basically 10x over the

last 6 weeks and don't feel bad that you

missed out on it frankly a lot of these

have so little liquidity you couldn't

really get a meaningful amount of buying

done in them anyway but what's really

interesting is that a stock like this

can 10x and then when you look at their

latest SEC filing they tell you hey

sorry we're going to be late on filing

our uh annual report uh part of the

reason is we expect a 52% decrease in

revenues and our margins are down

69% compared to last year but don't

worry it's because we're getting into

robots as a

service jeez man kills me Donald Trump

made an announcement today suggesting

that a Dubai based developer uh demac

properties will invest $20 billion in

the United States the individual from

the company actually came up and spoke

with Donald Trump uh just basically said

a few words they said that uh they're a

luxury property Builder they've

delivered 45,000 units they've got

another 45k coming they're in 10

countries for data centers and they're

going to build data centers in the US

they also say that they've been waiting

for 4 years to invest in the US because

they didn't want to invest during the

Biden

Administration big slam on the Biden

Administration but anyway Donald Trump

says if you invest a billion dollars or

more maybe less we'll push you through

the environmental process sometimes

people are held up 12 to 14 years we'll

make sure to push you through the

environmental

process I will also reverse Biden's ban

on offshore drilling immediately we're

going to drill baby drill all right you

get the idea uh Donald Trump then went

on to talk about some other priorities

like we'll end counting ballots at 10

p.m. on Election night some states do

take like 12 days to count like Arizona

California is another one that takes a

while to count he says we'll rename the

Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America

and there's talk about Donald Trump

trying to take control of the Panama

Canal or Greenland potentially using the

military in the event that quote he has

to or I guess the quote was he may have

to which was kind of interesting because

it's just not something that was on

anybody's radar and this is kind of

classic for Donald Trump is take things

that were on nobody's radar and they go

oh yeah we're going to take over

Greenland and the Panama Canal and we're

going to rename the Gulf of Mexico

hm Greenland by the way uh Is Well about

2third of its government budget is

funded by Denmark so Denmark and

Greenland say that Greenland is not for

sale the Kingman Kingdom of Denmark

wants Greenland but Donald Trump says if

Denmark doesn't agree with the Takeover

then he'll issue very very high tariffs

on

them okay I I still don't understand the

full scope of all of this so we're just

going to sort of table that for right

now because a lot of things are said

very often and usually they're just all

part of a big

negotiation Justin Trudeau also said

that becoming the 51st state of the

United States has a snowballs chance

what does he know though he's resigning

soon Jack Smith has also been preparing

to file a final report on Donald

Trump basically putting together

everything and all the evidence or

whatever that they have against Donald

Trump however Donald Trump is arguing

this isn't fair and that this is just an

improper new indictment of Donald Trump

some people reviewing the report say it

contains false accusations and so a

judge has actually today blocked the

release while an appeals court evaluates

what's going on anthropic plans to raise

$2 billion at a $60 billion valuation at

the same time as open AI announces

they're still losing money hand over

fist and then of course when we look at

the famous lines the lines the lines the

lines what do we see at the lines we see

that Tesla today lost the very important

414 line we were expecting to come for a

retest and we did retest that line over

here remember you can get my trade and

Trend alerts Trend alerts very important

so that way during times that I'm not

trading if I still see something very

desirable or something that I think is

desirable I'll still send you a trend

alert that I see you could get those in

the trumponomics course for any of the

courses over at M kevin.com but look at

that rejection perfectly on my line on

the one minute chart and if you zoom out

onto the one day chart this is a pretty

critical level uh in fact my next level

for Tesla doesn't hit until 607 and when

we lost that or failed that breakout we

did retest 414 but we've now lost 414

for the second time in a row not ideal

from a technical point of view for the

time being short-term bearish if you

look at Bitcoin you're also going to see

a pretty important line get rejected

very clearly here on the 1 hour and is

that 102 line important here and I don't

recommend uh speculating in near

term rocket ships unless we can actually

confirm that 102 level I think that 102

level is very very important uh let me

know what you think in the comments down

below okay so then we have I think there

is also Nvidia I just wanted to briefly

mention that Nvidia today after its CES

announcement did at Market open start

tanking not because of the announcement

in fact it was running more because of

the announcement the um 5,000 series

chips AI computers bringing AI home all

this really exciting I thought we were

going to try to test 164 uh we ended up

capping out at about 15374 and then

thanks to that ISM and data we ended up

selling off down to

140 now we need to hit the Daily Wealth

so as usual you could get this over at

mavin.com but yesterday I did send an

email called failure and I wrote fail

fast I said when it comes to business

everybody always says do what you're

passionate about let's refine that on

top of things you're passionate about

focus on the ones that make money with

the least effort this sounds obvious but

I've caught myself distracted by new

businesses many times sometimes they

make more money and they're worth

pursuing but often business ideas take

too much time lose too much money or

just don't gain traction or end up

losing traction after an initial boost

and this is where in my sort of Daily

Wealth Vision I always like to say fail

fast and this isn't necessarily failing

fast I call call this instead let the

market decide if the market doesn't care

about your product kill it move on if

it's a great product and it's a great

service it will make you money it might

take time to build it but you'll see the

trajectory it's kind of like when I

became a real estate agent I mean I

thought the service I was providing was

really good it took me 10 months to get

my first deal well close my first deal

but I had upward trajectory the entire

year I went from no clients to my first

three clients within 30 days to eight

clients by the end of the first year I

only made $10,000 my first year in real

estate but the second year I made just

over $50,000 the third year I made over

$140,000 and the year after that I broke

$300,000 the year after that broke

$500,000 obviously the trajectory of me

selling real estate myself and helping

people learn how to buy real estate and

invest in real estate was a good idea

that was a sustainable idea the market

was telling me yes Kevin people like the

no pressure agent who's providing more

value do more of this I was letting the

market decide when I offered a service

as a licensed contractor to my real

estate contact or to my to my real

estate clients I noticed the adoption

wasn't that great for what it was

costing me to run a Contracting staff

that was the market telling me you're

not getting enough demand for the

infrastructure you've built out so what

did I do I killed that business that

doesn't make me a failure that makes me

responsive to the market and the faster

you do this the better and this is why

in The Daily Wealth email uh I wrote do

not delay the market is exceptionally

good at telling you if you're on the

right path or not you could use this for

relationships like a boyfriend or

girlfriend a dead-end job a career an

education it doesn't matter listen to

the market the market

knows now with that I got to leave you

with the regular ending which this is

only the second meet Kevin report we've

done so we'll make it the regular ending

the dad joke of the day the dad joke of

the day goes as

follows I'm really worried about the

calendar it's days are numbered why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little advert ing

in CR congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin PA there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your take