Trump's Shill "Miran" at Fed SHOCKS with U-Turn.

I think that Kevin's a brilliant guy and

I think that we'd we'd we'd all be very

lucky to have him.

>> Stephen, where do you stand on

>> Wow. Well, Stephen Moran just gave an

interview that flipped a lot of my

expectations for who Morad was and what

he stood for at the Federal Reserve. And

I actually think what he said is leading

to some sudden bleeding in the stock

market and yields rising even higher on

the day since we started recovering on

yields and now they're going back up

again after this Moran interview. In

this we are going to break down exactly

what just said. Keep in mind the

anticipation of yields going to 415 is

exactly what we forecast in our alpha

report and we talked about it on Fed day

if the Fed was neutral. just added

fuel to this fire and yields which were

about 4% on Fed day are now at 4 point

roughly 4.14

very close to exactly where we thought

we were going to go. Now, we got to

break down what said, but I want

to mention something that I think is

really cool. If you were a member of the

Alpha Report, you saw me yesterday

morning say that Tesla was trading in no

man's land and too high and it was

likely to trade down, traded straight

down to 414. And if you were looking for

an easy trade this morning, this morning

I said we're bouncing off 414. We could

get some upside on Tesla today. and you

would have been able to pick up nearly

$15

on that trade. Now, some of this

talk and some bleed here recently, but

it's still up from that line. And if

you're not part of it yet, join that

alpha report over at meetke.com. Yeah,

Koopa Coat Daddy's back, baby. Okay.

Anyway, all right. So, let's talk about

what did Mulan say. first of all,

this guy's a lot more intelligent than I

originally gave him credit for. I

thought that this was going to be, you

know, your classic kind of shill that

just ends up showing up at the Fed and

shilling Donald Trump's uh uh, you know,

gut rates down. I thought he was going

to blow up the SCP, the summary of

economic projections, and I thought he

was going to blow up the dot plot. And

he really didn't do that. I have to give

him credit for that. You know me, my

goal is to be hated by everyone, so I

love dunking on politicians. I hate

politicians. And what I found I was

actually really impressed with. And it

it goes to say, this is sort of a leadin

to what Moran just said, but it goes to

tell us that this guy's not actually

trying to ruin the institution of the

Fed. Yeah, he was the low dot over here.

He just admitted as much, but over here,

he fits really well into the rest of the

dots. It's not like he's demanding zero

rates and he's showing for like mega

rate cuts. He also didn't give us any

kind of huge outliers in the range over

here. See, I even wrote no sandbag

other than descent for 50. I thought

this was really like respectful, but

what he just said in the interview on

CNBC was incredible. Not only uh did we

hear something that I thought that I was

personally very impressed with. I think

that Kevin's a a brilliant guy and I

think that we'd we'd we we'd all be very

lucky to have him.

>> Stephen, where do you stand on?

>> We ended up hearing his insights on how

low rates should go. First, he said

this, which turned markets towards the

downside. We are not too far from

neutral. This was a disappointment. A

lot of people are hoping that the

Federal Reserve is going to be there to

bail us out. The Federal Reserve is

going to cut rates and sustain the

euphoric end to the Nike swoosh

recovery. We've been talking Nike swoosh

since 2022. And we always said it would

end in absolute euphoria. Now, we can't

really know when that peak is until,

well, frankly, hindsight. You know, in

10 years, we'll be able to look back and

go, "Dad, bro, look at that Nike

swoosh." Right? And the Nike swoosh was

gorgeous. We called it for years that

it's time to buy the Nike swoosh. I

bought Nvidia over here at the bottom of

the Nike swoosh right here, September of

2022. It's literally the bottom of the

Nike swoosh. And I still hold the damn

shares right now. Over 13,000 of them.

That's an alert I sent out to course

members when I bought it. You know,

people who bought the course back then,

they're still getting Alpha Reports

today. And when I turn around and sell

Nvidia, you'll be the first to know in

the the course member lesson. But

anyway, the the euphoric portion is that

the the hope is that the Federal Reserve

will keep this pushing and moving for a

while. Moran took a little bit of that

enthusiasm away by saying we're not too

far from neutral and that growth will be

better in the second half. He's actually

saying, "Yeah, everybody thinks I'm

going to be a shill for just cutting

rates, but I actually think we only need

50 and maybe another 25 or so there, but

that's it. growth is going to come back.

We're not too far from neutral. The risk

is that the longer we stay restrictive,

the greater the risk is to the labor

market. So, he's basically saying, look,

if 3% is where we want rates to be,

let's get down to 3% as soon as possible

and then let's get let's let's be happy

there. So get down to 3% and unless

there's a financial stability concern,

we don't need to cut more. That's the

argument that he's making. This idea

that hey, we don't need to necessarily

cut to zero because we think growth is

going to come back. We actually think

that uh tariffs aren't hurting the

economy and that yeah prices can change

a little bit, but it's not that big of a

deal because if you think about

inflation, prices change quote all of

the time. But they're not macro

significant enough to affect monetary

policy. In other words, who cares? You

get some tariff inflation, prices change

a little bit. Big deal. But don't be so

restrictive that you're hurting the

labor market. I have to say, I was

really impressed with Mr. I really,

really thought that he was just going to

be a Trumpian shill and he was going to

sandbag the Fed uh to demanding, you

know, we cut rates in some ludicrous way

and that we would lose Fed independence

and nobody would really trust the Fed

anymore. we'd lose that trust in the Fed

and actually end up having long yields

go up over the long term, which would be

bad. That's not what happened here. What

happened here is we actually got

somebody who's got an economic brain.

Yet, he's still somewhat of a shill, but

he's got a brain. He's got an opinion,

but his opinion isn't ludicrous. Says,

"Look, the Fed will respond if there's a

financial stability concern, but right

now we just need to focus on getting

towards neutral." That's probably around

3%. So we, you know, we slowly get our

way down there, but do we really need to

go massively below that? No.

Unfortunately, I think that's not what

markets really wanted to hear. Now, I

don't think that necessarily means, you

know, the Q's aren't going to go over

600. I don't actually think this is like

mega bearish. I'm actually short-term

quite bullish because there are really

no catalysts between now and the

beginning of October. Uh, in fact, one

of the calls that we just recently made

in the course member stream was that

Palunteer would go back over 180 pretty

rapidly. And, uh, in the last two days,

Palunteer has literally gone up like

$15. Uh, you could see that right here.

We yesterday uh, not just this morning,

but also yesterday morning and

previously, I said, we are going back to

180. And just in the last two days,

since the alpha report I even posted

yesterday, we were at 169. We're up 1314

dollars and both days you could look at

this fact I flagged Palanteer is going

up and hood is going up and interest

rate sensitives as going down because

the 10ear is going back to 415

you got to be part of this pre you

remember every day before the market

opens I give you the trading perspective

of here's where I think the momentum is

going to be today and you get that in

the alpha report every single day that

the market is open uh it also gives us

plans And so, you know, for Fed day or

afterwards or whatever, cuz sets you up

for trading on the 10th. Uh, get that

over at meetcaven.com. But anyway, uh,

there you go. See, that's there's

there's the banner, the meet kev.com

banner. Well, we're ready to get all the

courses, all trade alerts, and the um

live streams. Use that code daddy's

back. Is it daddy's back or daddy's

home? I can't remember now. Uh, it auto

applies, I'm pretty sure, if you go to

meet me.com. And if it doesn't, you just

include it in. But it is uh not that

one. It is. There it is. Daddy's back.

Okay. So, so what what do we make of

this? Well, the bottom line of this is

we're probably going to see some

sustainment of yields at slightly higher

levels off of their lows uh for a little

while longer. I think 415 to 420 is

probably the range we'll sit in until we

get some kind of devastating jobs data.

remember ADP on the first and jobs data

on the third. Now, if we actually go

look at world interest rate

probabilities and I want to see if there

are any surveys out yet on jobs data.

Usually the surveys out on jobs data,

they come out about a week in advance,

but sometimes we get lucky and they

start coming out earlier. Yeah. Oh, wow.

So, the uh uh non-farm payrolls estimate

currently is 25,000.

That's really low. And the ADP estimate

is not out yet. But 25,000 on the jobs

report, that's that's low. You know, if

if that comes in negative, it's going to

suck.

Uh the last read was 22,000. You know,

now uh and we obviously have to wait. Oh

yeah, there there are only a few

estimates right now. So we got to wait

for like, you know, dozens of more

economists to come out with their

estimates. But anyway, if you now go

look at the world interest rate

probability sheet, we are pricing in a

91.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut on

October 29th. And we're pricing in uh a

what do we got here? 1.8.

So about another 80% chance thereafter

after we get that 25. Another 80% chance

that we'll get a second cut December

10th. But that's it. We'll get two more

25s and and and that'll be the end of

it. But Moran, unfortunately, he doesn't

I mean, he doesn't change anything for

this year, but what he does do is

basically say we're probably not going

to go much lower than 3%

next year. And so he does soften that a

little bit. Uh, and I think that's a

little bit disappointing for some.

People were really hoping and

anticipating for more aggression

uh to the downside on rates. But

overall, I have to say for a Fed

stability like independence point of

view, this was a great interview by

and uh or Myerin, however you want

to say it. And uh and some people just

say Uh but um it gives us a

little bit of perspective. Bottom line,

I I think you know, oh, he also talked a

little bit about the inelasticity of

tariffs. I thought this was a little bit

more complicated, but a worthwhile

argument to consider. He says the

country that benefits from tariffs is

the one that is more elastic and the one

that loses is the one that is more

inelastic. Basically, it's a way of

saying if you're an American, you have a

lot of choice in products and services.

So therefore, tariffs are going to hit

you less. Whereas if you're a

manufacturer in China, you have fewer

choices to, you know, sell your wares

to. You're kind of like only hoping to

sell to America, uh, in in, you know,

some specific examples. And therefore,

the Chinese end up eating the tariffs.

That's his argument. It's interesting

argument.

So again, it's an argument we haven't

heard of before and that's what he uses

to say that, hey, we're not really

seeing a big move in core goods

inflation. This is debatable. You know,

two CPI reports we were looking and we

saw core goods inflation moving up at an

annualized rate of like 5.9%. We always

have to be careful about multiplying

those monthly reads by 12 though

because, you know, one month doesn't

make a trend as we say. Uh so there is

some evidence to dispute uh what uh he's

saying but um you know broadly are we

seeing a you know a ridiculous explosion

inflation? No. Is it possible though

that we would have had deflation or more

disinflation? Yes. That's my argument.

You know if inflation right now is 2.5%

I think we would have probably been

closer to 1% if it weren't for all these

tariffs. So that would then give the Fed

more latitude to cut more rapidly. See,

the problem right now is the the Fed

can't cut more rapidly because if

inflation's at 2 and a half% and people

hear the Fed is cutting like crazy, well

then you unleash potential inflation

psychology which then entrenches the

very inflation you're trying to prevent.

So, uh you know, unfortunately it does

put the Fed between a a tough spot, but

u this idea that that uh my was going to

be a shill for for the lowest rates

possible is dead in the water. Tell us

about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.