FIRING JEROME POWELL

oh you won't believe what Donald Trump

just said about Jerome Powell at the

Federal Reserve let's analyze how

exactly what's going on what it means

for a potential Market correction also

keep in mind that if you want to invest

in my real estate startup coming out at

a one-to-one valuation that's a steal of

a deal you could do so but potentially

only as a course member we're opening up

Investments to course Members First and

potentially only if we max out so make

sure your course member before that

coupon expires this Friday

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people looked up to

you Kevin path right there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take I would bet that

over the next year leading into the 2024

election one of the biggest topics that

will be argued about by politicians

running for office will be the fate of

the Federal Reserve Donald Trump just

had a few Choice words to say about Jay

Powell and we're going to review exactly

those we'll also review what I predicted

Donald Trump Trump would say just about

a week ago but first it's worth

remembering that criticizing Jerome

Powell has not always been popular in

fact very few criticized Jerome Powell

during the pandemic when the money

printer was flowing and everybody was

making money however Republicans were

initially first to start criticizing

Powell for being too slow to respond to

inflation and they were right Jerome

Powell and the FED were way too slow

they were still printing over 80 billion

dollars per month when we had over six

percent inflation because they believed

that inflation would be transitory now

maybe inflation would have been

transitory if we were only facing one

wave of covid and then we were done but

we didn't have one wave of covid we had

a wave of covet followed by a wave of

Delta followed by a wave of Omicron and

then War which led to a massive oil

price shock and massive sustained

inflation thanks to these oh over and

over again repeated shocks breaking down

Supply chains leading actually to

de-globalization which is very

inflationary and ultimately leading to a

Federal Reserve that just missed the

boat they printed money and too much

money for too long let's not even get

started by talking about the fraud that

happened during covet let's just focus

on what politically happened for a

moment before covid see during covet we

know that Republicans were first to

criticize Jerome Powell but they were

also critical of drone Powell before

coven remember that when rates were

actually rising in 2008 Donald Trump

said he would consider firing Jerome

Powell because it didn't make sense that

Jerome Powell was Raising interest rates

when in the mind of Donald Trump the

economy was fine and there was a belief

that potentially the economy might

actually over overheat the yield curve

inverted before covid it's inverted

again now which is potentially a way of

saying okay maybe we need to slow the

economy down and try to orchestrate a

soft Landing which is much of what the

fed's trying to do now as well but

inflation was actually running under

Target in 2018 and previously leading a

lot of people to wonder what why what

was the point of slowing down the money

printing if inflation was actually fine

so you kind of have a little bit of a

flip-flop right because in 2018-19 you

had Republicans and Donald Trump like

hey keep printing like why are you

taking the punch bowl away and then in

covet it's like hey all right we printed

too much now okay now we printed too

much let's let's take the punch bowl

away

and what's fascinating is the only ones

to really criticize Powell now that the

punch bowl is being taken away so far

have been Democratic lawmakers like

Elizabeth Warren I arguing that well

hold on a second if you're raising rates

this much you're going to overdo it and

now you're going to cause a recession

and you're going to lead to more

joblessness in fact Elizabeth Warren

says hey Jerome Powell isn't it true

that if the unemployment rate goes up

one percent it's likely to actually go

up two or more percent isn't that

historically true to which Jerome Powell

actually said yeah that is historically

true not only is that historically true

but that's kind of planning for

unemployment to rise another one percent

this is leading to a lot of nervousness

and so that's where we go right back to

now and what we expect going forward

with politics in the Federal Reserve

because right now it feels like the

Federal Reserve is crushing the economy

a little too much markets are selling

off because they believe the Federal

Reserve is blind to essentially

inflation being gone the markets here

that the economy may not actually be

trending into a recession in fact the

FED at the end of July said maybe we're

not trending towards a recession JP

Morgan came out about a week later

saying maybe there won't be a recession

and since then the stock market has

essentially been straight down part of

the reason for that is because the stock

market's like okay well if there's not

gonna be a recession then there's no

reason for Jerome Powell and the FED to

cut interest rates

so we're screwed if we stay at these

rates for longer they're going to

destroy the economy

and that's what led me to tweet just

about a week ago the following I expect

Donald Trump will start promising zero

percent rates by January 2025. if he

wins even though ultimately it's up to

the Federal Reserve especially since

under Joe Biden will probably start

cutting just before the election in

other words it would be popular if we're

going to cut rates before the election

for Donald Trump to start talking about

demanding rates being cut sooner rather

than later so maybe he could argue

taking some credit for it although

Donald Trump's probably not wrong here

Donald Trump's actually probably right

we probably ought to cut rates even

though people believe that inflation

could reanimate with a strong economy in

cutting rates there is possibly a

greater risk of going too far and

breaking something that will not easily

be able to be undone much like in China

there is a fear that China has gone so

deep into deflation where people just

don't don't spend money that even if

they do decide to cut rates which they

recently did and they print even more

money which they haven't quite done yet

but they're you know it's they're

revving ramping up to this potential

idea

that it won't have any effect because

I've killed the economy so much it would

be like poking a dead horse with a stick

going come on horse get up it's too late

you killed the economy that's what China

did ever Grant just went bankrupt that's

not good

now listen to what Donald Trump just

said today a day where the stock market

let's just say hasn't had a fantastic

day and the 10-year yield is

skyrocketing because people are making a

bet that dronepal is actually telling

the truth they're going to keep rates

higher for longer they're going to

destroy the economy and so what does

Donald Trump have to say about exactly

that well of course Donald Trump is

going to remind you to check out the

coupon code expiring Friday you could

use that for both the meet Kevin courses

on building your wealth with lifetime

access to the course member live streams

for as long as those go on and

Financial advice we are actually now

offering Financial advice at stack hack

if you'd like to learn more about the

financial advice Services we offer uh

whether it is a fundamental research

will throw in hours with our team doing

fundamental research for you or

portfolio analysis Financial advice

learn more at stackhack.com keep in mind

that the real estate startup coming up

house hack may only end up selling

shares to course members so you may as

well take advantage of a great price now

let's get started now with what Donald

Trump says

so you had exactly the reverse policies

no matter what he says the facts show

clearly that yours succeeded you

actually had it going year on year three

four percent economic growth until the

Federal Reserve started tightening

interest rates uh in 2018 and 2019. I

wanted to ask you about that because I

know you were very cross at the Federal

Reserve and very unhappy with Jay Powell

now Powell's been reappointed as you

well know he's going to be there till

2026 so a second Trump Administration

you have to put up with j-pal what would

you do about that and would you think

about reappointing him or speaking with

him or how would you handle that because

interest rates can be important tools to

stop inflation but they can also destroy

growth yeah uh I would not reappoint him

uh I thought he was always late whether

it was good or bad but he was always

late uh I was surprised he was

reappointed probably he got reappointed

because they knew I didn't like him much

uh I felt that he was uh

not good in fact I was very tough on him

and if I wasn't I think we would have

had much higher interest rates for much

longer and we had a boom and it was

primarily in fact one time

it looked like I was going to come down

on the very heart and he actually

dropped him so much that it was like it

was he dropped him so much at one time

remember and people said wow what's

wrong with the economy he gave him most

improved player yeah but but anyway I'm

not a fan of Jay pal

okay well there you have it so first of

all what is Donald Trump referring to

when when he says that drone Powell in

fact at one point dropped them so much

at one time uh so that was covid and

that was when Jerome battle dropped

rates two percent on a Sunday an

emergency announcement boom we're

dropping rates Super Sound that was

obviously an emergency situation but

whether it was because of the political

pressure from Donald Trump or not back

in 2018 Jerome Powell did finally U-turn

in December of 2018

and pause the rate hike cycle that we

use on and then potentially suggest

easing now that was a big moment for

stocks because if you go back to the

pain that we experienced in December of

2018 which was about a three month

period you'll actually look back and see

it was one heck of a time to buy now

that's no guarantee that now is the time

to buy everybody's going to have their

different opinions on where and exactly

what you should be buying right now and

I'll give you my actional opinions in

just a moment but take a look at this

this was 2018 and I covered the FED then

you can actually go back to my channel

and look at my drone power videos from

five years ago because I covered every

minute of this and folks as you can see

the market was on a beautiful uptrend

but diverted from this uptrend very

harshly here in 2018 where you had this

correction from about 187 to 139 on the

NASDAQ well just to put that into

perspective that is a

25.7 decline in the NASDAQ that would be

like if we go to present day today and

say that we're revisiting a December of

2019. let's go ahead and take our top

here a recent top 387 let's call it 388.

let's go ahead and take off about uh 26

so we're going to be down to 287 in that

case 287 would bring us back to this

about 23 Fibonacci level that would be

quite a double dip it might not be all

the way back to the fears of the Paul

volcker times but it would be quite the

dip back down if we had a December of

2018 style correction and this is where

I believe that this is actually right

now the moment that is most opportune

for candidates like Donald Trump to

start ramping up pressure on Jerome

Powell mostly because I personally

believe the fed's already overdone it

with interest rate hikes I think

inflation is solved every single day I

read earnings calls for companies just

in the last two days uh Target Walmart

Home Depot what are they all saying no

more inflation supply chain solved no

need to raise wages anymore every single

one of them are saying the same thing

yet here we have a feathers

where's even more I think this is going

to turn into a massive political

discussion the amount of political

pressure

that ramps up against the Fed

will exponentially increase the more a

we get closer to the election and B the

stock market potentially sells down now

it doesn't look like we're anywhere near

a recession now the inverted yield curve

suggests that we're going to be heading

into a recession although they are

steepening they're steepening back to

banking crisis days in March of 2023

here that's as steep as we are again on

the yield curve we're still negative by

about 60 basis points but the point is

we're steepening and when we use steepen

you tend to experience pain which here

we are we're experiencing pain this is

part of the volatility that we were

expecting in 2023 we just haven't

actually had much of that volatility uh

so anyway I wouldn't be surprised if we

actually return back to this greater

trend line that I have right here you

can see this trend line I have drawn

here if I somewhat extend that uh we'll

grab the correct line here if I somewhat

extend that trend line that I have drawn

it wouldn't surprise me to end back up

at about a 348 NASDAQ which means

honestly we probably still have Jackson

Hole to get through here Jackson Hole

style sell-off maybe Jackson Hole is the

opportunity for jpow to turn this around

but if Jackson Hole next week goes bad

and we actually get more of this Hawking

from the FED when inflation is already

proving to Trend down

the market has more pain ahead of it not

just another three percentage points on

the NASDAQ but even more but again the

political conversation around Jay Powell

and his efforts will be ramping up

because Donald Trump is hitting a nerve

when he says that j-pow is always late

so far Donald Trump is not wrong what do

you think either way let me know in the

comments down below check out the

courses on building your wealth link

down below use that coupon code before

tomorrow remember that'll give you a

first access to investing in house hack

and potentially the only access to

investing in-house hack when you work

course member thanks so much check out

the courses linked down below we'll see

you soon congratulations man you have

done so much people love you people look

up to you I took my enthusiasm for the

market and money it started learning

everything I could about real estate I

would be the most transparent Governor

that would exist I became a licensed

Financial advice why not advertise these

things that you told us here at Wolf

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes always have your Kevin path

right there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin

[Music]