Watch BEFORE Tuesday November 1 [Mega Catalysts].

hey everyone me Kevin here we are going

to have a big week of catalysts last

week we had a really big week of

catalysts as well considering the fact

that Amazon reported a consumer slowdown

going into Q4 Google ads reported a

Slowdown for advertising demand we also

saw Google in its Play Store and apple

on its services like its App Store who

recognize a Slowdown with consumers here

GDP showed that the consumer last week

is still relatively resilient in the

face of higher interest rates but that

the savings rate that we're seeing from

consumers is now below levels that we've

seen pre-pandemic and so we've got a big

week of earnings to give us a lot of

insight into

how consumers might be faring going into

Q4 but we'll also be getting the Federal

Reserve and some other important data so

let's break down the week the way we've

got to look at it the first thing we

look at is October 31st and for October

31st we actually really only have two

important dates and that is the

expiration for the courses for a quick

Halloween coupon we've done this pricing

will be better than Black Friday coupon

codes so you know get in before then and

then of course we have a house hack

deadline for signing your documents you

can wire by November 4th November 4th

will be the wire deadline for house hack

but get in by October 31st with your

documents at househack.com okay there

really aren't any Market catalysts on

Monday so we'll have a little bit of a

relaxing Monday November 1 is where

things get interesting first we're going

to have the beginning of the fomc

meeting now the fomc meeting the first

thing they're going to be able to

discuss that's a Federal Open Market

Committee from the Fab is going to be

the joltz report now the jolts report is

an interesting one it's the job opening

and labor turnover survey and a last

joltz report the last one that we got

came in nicely low at 10 which would be

10 billion 25

000 and we're hoping that this number

actually now comes all the way down to

potentially

9.625 or maybe even misses to the

downside now according to Indeed job

openings have actually been inflecting

to the upside but a jolt's survey right

now of 9.6 is certainly moving in the

right direction if we get a number that

comes in lower than this I would expect

prices and markets equities to rally and

if we get a number that comes in higher

than this and we miss to the upside of

which I would expect some red in markets

remember the reason we want to see this

is because the Federal Reserve wants to

see a one-to-one balance so for example

if I if I say we have 6 million people

who were unemployed but we've got 12

million job openings that means we have

two job openings for every unemployed

person we want to see more like 6

million job openings for six million

unemployed folks and that's directly

from Jerome Powell at the Federal

Reserve right this is this is pretty

obvious and pretty clear then we will be

getting some earnings on Tuesday so

we'll get to have some earnings fund

together so the first one that we're

going to be getting is AMD I'll tell you

what I'm looking for at AMD is really

simple I want to know what's going to

happen with that China Revenue AMD has

about 25 percent of its revenues coming

from China and after that Joe Biden chip

ban for artificial intelligence style

chips and super Computing chips I do

think we've got some really big risks

and uncertainties here for AMD depending

on what they say could be a catalyst

towards the upper downside for Airbnb we

have a lot of uh sort of a anecdotal

evidence Airbnb there we go anecdotal

evidence that airbnbs are slowing down

that bookings are slowing down so I want

to see the bookings Trend here uh the

last earnings call from Airbnb didn't

suggest a booking slowdown if anything

they suggested strength going into the

third quarter let's see if that strength

holds up with that core consumer going

into the fourth quarter we do have

Caesar's entertainment which which some

are going to be looking at for travel

demand we have Sofi coming up

so far I will say I think this is an

interesting one because Sofi has a lot

of staff and so I really want to see

what their op X is looking like they've

got a lot of financial advisors on staff

they provide ETFs that have that are

index based that have no cost so they're

not receiving any revenue from this

they've got stocks and crypto brokering

but again they're receiving in my guess

nominal revenues from this I think it's

been very difficult to attract new

customers to these sorts of services

unless you're offering a high yield on

interest for example if I say go to

metcaven.com Weeble and hit up to 12

free stocks with Weeble I've actually

seen a lower transition of users over to

Weeble and for me that's just a way of

of myself being able to have my finger

on the pulse of the market in terms of

how excited are people to get into new

brokerages so I wouldn't be surprised to

see user growth so I'll just put ug here

user growth to slow down at Sofi just

because in this sort of Market it is

slightly difficult to get people people

into the brokerage game and getting

signed up for new accounts we will be

getting Uber not the biggest fan of uber

mostly because you're collecting fees

off other people doing the work right

you've got the platform and the drivers

are doing the driving but they're

independent you've got a lot of risks

related to independent contractor laws

so I think you've got a lot of uh those

IRS risks are going to be a big overhang

for Uber we'll see what happens here

regarding taxation you've got Pfizer

coming up uh Pfizer obviously uh you

know vaccines mRNA vaccines uh or or

something that might become more

profitable for them as Government

subsidies go away especially for those

coveted vaccines so we'll see some

common commentary on this Simon Property

Group any potential lease negotiations

for uh you know tenants who can no

longer afford to uh to to pay their rent

as well as traffic updates you know the

Simon Property Group owns a lot lot of

pretty incredible malls throughout the

country including one of my favorites

which is the Sawgrass Mills mall in

South Florida a great area as well

Sunrise Florida BP expecting just record

profits here but I really want to see

their expansion into Chargers and EV see

if they're putting any more money into

this space you might think that's ironic

but they've got half as many Chargers as

Tesla does which is really remarkable

that they even have that many I think

it's like 16 000 charging stations it's

really really incredible that's then

going to bring us to November 2nd which

is Wednesday November 2nd we have the

fomc meeting really what we're looking

for from the Federal Reserve is any kind

of hint at a Slowdown right now I really

don't think unless we get like a really

killer jolts report that we're going to

hear anything so I I'm not too

optimistic in this idea of a pivot or

pause talk I think we're going to be

looking for hints of maybe 50 in

December which we might get but I also

think they're going to keep the 50 in

December optionality open because most

of the data comes after this meeting so

I think the FED has a real risk of

talking the market up in November on the

November 2nd meeting which in my opinion

means I think we're going to see a

rougher drone Powell because he needs to

keep the market down because if for

example treasure yields fall and the

stocks rise you actually loose in

financial conditions which just leads to

more spending and that's not what the

Federal Reserve wants they want to keep

yields high at the treasuries at a

treasuries level they want to keep

mortgage rates high they want to keep

the stock market down that's how they

keep Financial conditions tight to get

rid of inflation I really don't think it

would be wise for them to uh to really

imply pivot or pause I think they want

to just reiterate data dependent we

haven't seen it yet and we might see

some red because of that but hopefully

that unlocks them to be a little little

bit Chiller in December but I don't

think this is their meeting for for

really giving us any kind of excitement

I think it would be a mistake for them

to do so

you're going to see exp report this is

uh the real estate agent company uh look

I I'm not not at all enthusiastic about

this I think transaction we know

transactions are down 30 percent they

make money by taking a certain portion

of real estate agents commissions I

think they're a great company to hang

your license with if you are a real

estate agent who already has experience

in fact you can go to metcaven.com exp

and sign up for exp Realty okay and uh

they'll give me a thank you for you

doing that Lauren has her license hung

with exp but let me be clear if

transactions go down revenues for exp I

think are going to go down now that

might already be priced in but we'll see

what happens we're going to get Vista

Outdoors how are those bullet sales

basically coming up on an election going

to be doing Fisker is going to be

reporting uh I'm not sure if that's

actually fisker's ticker symbol but

whatever Fisker is going to be report

supporting you've got a Zillow the

Zillow group reporting this one I really

think is going to be sad because when

real estate transactions are down real

estate agents start getting nervous and

you might think oh they're advertising

more to get more business but when it

becomes hard to advertise is when the

Market's hard and so you actually tend

to advertise less even though

advertising less probably means more

business for you as an agent it's just a

time people tend to like hold on to the

cash they have and that's bad for

zillow's main source of income which is

not flipping houses anymore since they

killed that unprofitable business

anybody could have told them that was

going to be an unprofitable business but

from real estate agents probably not

going to see such great spending here so

I'm not optimistic about that one Robin

Hood might actually surprise decently to

the upside with their three percent uh

interest on gold deposits in fact well

Robin Hood gold deposits that's not

actual gold deposits but if you go to

metcaven.com Robinhood it you could sign

up and get the three percent uh on your

cash deposits at Robinhood which is kind

of cool I mean on cash stuff that you

have money readily available for or

liquidity with I I think that's actually

an incredible offer I'm considering

putting a bunch of money over here into

Robinhood as well so I don't have to

deal with moving treasuries around and I

got a little bit quicker uh and more

flexible liquidity it's much better than

sitting in the bank over here we're

going to have

Etsy Etsy such a great great company but

I hate to say it uh sellers on here do

not have a lot of pp pricing power not

seeing a lot of pp by sellers in Etsy I

don't think that'll change Us in this

next earnings report but we'll see same

thing I would expect to be true over at

eBay and then we'll get Qualcomm we'll

see how they're doing without apple as

as much of a client Roku I think this

one's just set up for a disaster I'm not

the biggest fan of Roku getting into the

TV business in other words we know that

they're software for TV but they're

actually getting into building their own

TVs and I think the capex spending on

getting into that is going to be

disastrous not optimistic here at all if

I had to pick something I was most

optimistic on I hate to say it but

probably Robin Hood uh you know

otherwise I'm just not very very

optimistic about any of these now on

November 3rd and 4th I do get to some

things that I think I could be a little

bit more optimistic about so let's go

ahead and draw over here November 3rd

what do we got for November 3rd well

we've got Amir American homes for rent

I'd like to see them actually reduce

their purchases because this is a

competitor to house hack we will

actually have carvana reporting carvana

shift the used car space look we knew

for over a year to get out of these I've

talked about it in many videos you don't

want to be in a used car seller when

there's a used car shortage so as long

as there's been a used car shortage I've

been not interested in these stocks

because these stocks make money off of

volume it's kind of like exp real estate

volume goes down your fees go down

volume going down bad so uh you know now

we're starting to see used car prices

fall and still have shortages I mean

it's just a double whammy not very

excited here Cloud flare though also

known as ticker symbol net optimistic

here I I personally am excited about

this one this is one that I would be

paying attention to coinbase no not very

excited here although there's been some

Dogecoin spiking here lately with

Twitter taking over or being taken over

by Elon Musk not very excited about how

many transactions we would expect from

coinbase it's really going to take a

rally in the crypto Market to see people

move back over here Corsair one of the

problems with Coursera I don't remember

exactly what their ticker is CSR

something like this Corsair uh

peripherals for PCs look we're down 19

in the PC market there's not a lot of

reason to be optimistic here but will we

see a potential consumer inflection

point and could that be a lead-in for

some of the other PC manufacturers maybe

we'll see Dropbox are they actually

going to be able to increase their share

of pie so I want to see how much of a

sort of the percent of Tam they've been

able to grow I haven't been the most

optimistic about this company but we'll

see exp look uh sorry this is not exp

this is actually Expedia I should say

Expedia which means actually that is

expi there we go ah Expedia Travel I

don't recommend them for booking but

they kill it with revenues a lot of

people use them and I have to say travel

has been absolutely booming so I think

their historical returns here or their

historical revenues looking back should

be pretty dang strong but their forecast

is going to be everything so I'm going

to write down forecast on that one how

is that travel demand holding up so far

the airlines are telling us pretty dang

well GoDaddy is an interesting one just

to watch how entrepreneurs are doing in

terms of starting businesses we are

going to have Hyatt Hyatt's an

interesting one on November 3rd because

it tells me a little bit about business

travel or sort of a high-end level of

travel is that high end starting to slow

down we haven't really seen a high-end

slowdown yet you've got MP materials

reporting how are we doing on those rare

earth metals for electric vehicle Motors

any increase in in sort of uh how many

of these were able to or or how many

units of sort of rare earth materials

were able to manufacture or refine and

then how are our partnership deals going

how about expansion deals they're

located in California I think they're a

great company run by a great CEO Open

Door honestly uh like if I I'm happy

about MP but Open Door is is just

terrible I think they deserve to go

bankrupt I am excited to see those

financials because I want to read the

red flags Peloton is is having a

complete disaster there's a reason I

sold Peloton at 113 and advocated for

doing so on on YouTube in live streams

and videos and course member live

streams everything was saying this phase

is over and I was recently reading some

consumer spending reports and I'll tell

you Fitness is like the lowest right now

it's just not an exciting space to be in

but you really got to see how is that

new CEO trying to turn around the

reputation for that company so I think

that's a big deal PayPal has been having

some recent drama they're going to be

reporting in terms of uh 2500 fees for

potential misinformation commentary oh I

want to see if they end up getting any

kind of hits to user growth on that

front under armor is a company that

generally has had a lot of pricing power

how is their PP holding up are they

having to go into discounting the way

Nike has been going into uh discounting

judging by Services sort of declining I

would expect that twilio is probably

going to be a sad face and I hate to say

it but investment into Home Furniture

via companies like Wayfair probably not

expecting an inflection point here

anytime soon November 4th November 4th

is your wire deadline for house hack not

only is it your wire deadline for

househack to get your October options

but it's one we expect the unemployment

rate to come in at 3.6 percent average

hourly earnings to be up 0.3 percent

that would be about also 3.6 percent on

the year over year average hourly

earnings expected to be 4.7 percent and

participation up to

62.4 percent if we have an unemployment

rate here that comes in higher than

expected it would actually encourage

stocks and we want this number here that

month over month inflation rate to come

in lower than expected it's going to be

very very important all right folks

there you have it if you found this

video helpful consider sharing it thank

you so much for watching and we'll see

you in the next one