Elon Musk is NOT Done Selling TSLA | Here's When it ENDS.

hey everyone meet kevin here tesla is

rallying today it's up over six percent

at one point it was over seven percent

it had crossed a thousand dollars

slightly under a thousand dollars at the

time of this recording but a lot of

folks are very excited because they

believe that elon musk is done selling

his shares and they believe that he's

done selling his shares because of an

interview that elon musk did with the

babylon b which is a christian based uh

newspaper or well more online news

organization uh now what's important

about this uh is i think there's this

potential the

stock is rallying over this excitement

that okay perfect elon's done now's the

time to enter the stock but if all of a

sudden elon starts selling shares again

we could potentially see a sharper

reversal in the short term as folks who

are waiting for elon to be done pull out

only to come back in hopefully later now

let me break down the speculation here

so this right here is the clip from the

interview where folks are deducing that

elon musk is done selling his shares

it's very important to know going into

me playing this that elon musk said he

would sell 10 of his steak which is

about 17 million shares

he has not done so he sold about 12.9

million shares so he's getting there and

yesterday sold about another 948 000 so

if we go 12.9 plus uh 9.5 let's just do

basic little rounding here really quick

uh and that would be 900 900.5 so 0.95

then then we divide that by the 17 that

we are expecting elon musk had to have

sold to get to his 10

well if we do that simple math we know

that elon musk is really only at about

81 to 82 percent of shares sold and we

know that elon musk is a very literal

person he says he's going to sell 10

he's going to sell 10

so why are people saying that elon musk

is done selling well this interview

let's listen to this clip for about 30

seconds and we'll be right back to show

you why elon musk is not done selling

shares including what elon said after

the interview

so i sold enough stock to get to around

ten percent plus the option exercise

stuff

and uh

i very i try to be extremely literal um

so you don't generally need to read

between lines you can just read the

lines

so that's it

as the as the fattest guy here i i want

to know what's when are you gonna make

the candy company

okay so we're gonna pause there i only

wanted you to make sure that i wanted

you to see that there was nothing else

that was being said there so elon musk

is saying he's extremely and you could

watch the interview to get the question

of that babylon b elon musk they got the

interview so

elon musk said i sold shares

and

enough options

uh to to satisfy his 10 percent

this implies that he has already done so

that he's he's finished and he believes

he sold his 10

but listen closely there's a very key

word in what he said and it's very

literal and uh

i very i try to be extremely lit here we

go hold on um

so i i sold enough stock to get to

around 10 plus the option exercise stuff

and plus the aux option exercise stuff

okay so he originally sold a bunch of

shares when he started this 10 process

but then you have the option exercise

stuff so here's how the option exercise

stuff works

every time elon musk

executes

his options and he exercises them that

is he is agreeing to pay six dollars and

25 cents for a batch of 100 shares of

tesla times

the many options that he has for tesla

every time he does one of those batches

he automatically sells about and i'm

totally rounding here 950 000 shares

it's just automatic he's automatically

doing this via a 10b51 plan this 10b51

plan allows you to sell even in blackout

periods because it's an automated action

options get exercised shares

automatically sell

this is what happened yesterday morning

remember yesterday morning in the stock

and if you've watched the live streams

you know that uh yesterday elon musk or

somebody we we know we now know it was

elon musk but somebody was clearly

dumping tesla shares early in the

morning somewhere around 7 30 in the

morning and that led tesla to fall a

good chunk it fell to about

886 at its low point yesterday

i was fortunate to be able to watch

these lines on these bars i had tesla

open

while it was happening because that's

what i do i sit here all day long and i

thought to myself whoa

it's getting ready to bounce off a

purple line here which is a sport line

that i drew back in january uh and uh i

went shopping so i bought a bunch of

shares here uh i got it at 8.90 it went

down to 886 so i couldn't be perfect

about it and of course i sent an alert

to everybody in the uh stocks and

psychology of money group but the point

here is elon exercised options here

and then automatically had his

substantial portion of shares sell every

time he exercises an option his shares

sell and now elon musk has gone on

twitter and responded to

the whole mars catalog omar over there

great person he's been on the channel

absolutely encourage you follow at

holmar's blog

really really great but take a look at

this here

this

is the quote

elon musk said he quote sold enough

tesla stock to satisfy his 10 percent

goal but it misses the second part which

is plus the option stuff

and so elon musk replies to clarify this

assumes completion of the 10 b sales

now if you jump on over which is another

person you should follow if you jump on

over to uh mr gary black

and you go to uh any of his i mean he's

got phenomenal insights and information

here uh on tesla but go to his chart his

spreadsheet here look at this there it

is it's 934 000 shares uh and an

additional 91 there so every time you

get a 10b 51 sale where options are

exercised around 2.1 million options are

exercised you get a share sale of 934

091 shares

every time

and

this doesn't include yesterday's sales

which would bring you to about 81 82

and that means elon musk has another 19

to go and so since every time is moving

the needle about five to six percent

i believe there are still about four to

five days that elon musk is going to be

executing shares uh or uh exercising

options and therefore selling shares so

this is in my opinion something

important to know i think we're still

going to get more of these tesla dips

we're getting closer to the end

but in my opinion if you're looking to

buy tesla stock you want to look for

these sorts of opportunities and a good

trader can notice this right away it's a

very strong increase in volume you've

got very sudden declines in the share

price i mean it's kind of obvious when

the sales are going through relative to

something much more moderate like this

kind of flattening here

so look for those pain points i

encourage you use something like trading

view and even consider setting an alert

you can set a lot of custom alerts on

trading view this isn't sponsored by

tradingview but something else we talk

about in the courses and uh you can set

very custom alerts to help alert you of

something like this or you could do what

i do and just keep the chart up all day

long and live your life staring at a

screen of well green and red bars going

up and down

now keep in mind according to gary

black's spreadsheet here elon musk seems

to exercise these options about once per

week with the exception of november 15th

and 16th when he did essentially two

share

or two option exercises within uh within

one period of time now elon has about

four to five of these left to go

he already exercised one set yesterday

and we saw those sales yesterday

that means we should be good for the

week of the 20th the 24th there might be

another sale between the 27th and the

30th because the market's going i

believe the market closes on new year's

eve i'll have to double check that but

doesn't matter so much

then we have probably three to four more

in january that could be the first week

second week third week fourth week that

means really we could continue to see

elon musk's selling pressure all the way

through january if he wants to push all

of these taxes

into 2021 which he may not want to he

would still be fulfilling his obligation

but then delaying taxes uh by

potentially uh fulfilling these

exercises in sales the the first you

know four weeks of january then uh if

you know if you wanted to get it all

done this month i don't think he would

want to exercise

four to five more batches within the

next week because i think it could lead

to tesla going down to like 800 like

it'd be so painful there'd be so much

selling pressure so my guess is he's

gonna

we're gonna see another round of sales

next week and we're gonna see four more

three to four more in january and so

we're gonna be living with elon musk

selling these shares probably until my

birthday which is january 28th

then maybe we could get into the

springtime joy of uh of elon musk being

done and that way he's also kind of

buttered out exactly when he's paying

all of his taxes a little bit carrying a

little bit over until essentially into

2023 when he'll owe those taxes unless

of course he'll be paying quarter lease

which is entirely possible as well that

he'll pay quarter lease on these though

that is a question for his cpa

all right thanks for watching and we'll

see you the next time hopefully when

elon's done selling