Geo-Strategy #8: The Iran Trap

okay let's start class so um let us

summarize and review where we are so far

in the story so um there are three major

interest forces that are pushing the

United States towards war with

Iran um the first is the Israel

Lobby remember that the Israel Lobby is

composed of both Jew Jewish interest as

well as Christian interests right

representing the Jewish interest is

something called

APAC uh and they have a membership of

about a

100,000 but they're very wealthy there

are many billionaires in this group so

this group has Financial power in fact

APAC is considered the second most

powerful lobbying organization in in the

United States the first is um the

pensioners okay there's about 30 million

of them um and their lobbying

organization is the most powerful but

APAC is second but also in the Israel

Lobby are the Christian Zionist right so

for example the organization uh

Christians United for Israel has 7

million

people um in its membership so together

the Christian Zionist and APAC um are

extremely powerful force in government

and they want a war in the middle ease

in order to advance Israel's

interest also remember that America is

now addicted to Empire because Empire

represents easy money all money has to

be uh channeled through the

US and so there are many people in the

US who just make make basically make

their money by speculating on money okay

so for example Wall Street and that has

made Wall Street extremely powerful uh

right now in US

politics and the third um force is Saudi

Arabia um remember that in our

discussion of Saudi Arabia we learned

that the major conflict in the Middle

East is actually not between Israel and

Iran but between Saudi Arabia

and

Iran for Israel Iran is a security

threat because it it supports hasah and

Hamas but for Saudi

Arabia um Iran represents a threat to

its very existance okay so Saudi Arabia

must resolve the Iran

problem soon right now how these three

forces manifest themselves is uh through

Trump okay so basically Trump is their

champion and

privately um there's a man named Jared

Kushner who is Trump's son-in-law he's

married to um Trump's fa daughter um

Ivanka Trump okay and Char Jerry

Kushner happens to be very good friends

with both Benjamin

nanyu who is of Israel as well as

Muhammad bin Salon who was the leader of

Saudi Arabia now uh Jer kushner's father

tus Kushner was a very prominent uh

sponsor of APAC in fact when Benjamin

Nan yahu comes to State United States he

lives with the kushna family so one

night uh Benjamin natany had to stay in

Jer crusher's bedroom and Jer kusher had

to sleep in the in the uh basement okay

that's how close they are and Jared

Kushner is friendly with MBS the leader

of Saudi Arabia so friendly that when

Jer Kushner started a private Equity

Fund Saudi Arabia invested two billion

dollars okay so through jar Kushner uh

these three forces are able to exert

influence on Trump as we also discussed

it's very likely that Trump will become

president of the United States again um

um in November and he will pick Nikki

Haley as his

VP and that means that Nikki Hy will be

the one in the Trump White House pushing

for war against um Iran as we discussed

uh niiki heli makes most of her money

from the um Israel Lobby okay the

anti-iran

lobby we know from the first Trump

Administration that these forces are

able to exert tremendous influence on

Trump okay and the evidence is one Trump

withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal that

would have secured peace between United

States and Iran okay Trump moved the

United States Embassy from T aiv to

Jerusalem in Israel which um was a

major um which caused major friction in

the Middle East okay we also know that

um Trump ignore the fact that NBS

killed a

journalist okay so we also know that

Trump um has been very friendly with

Saudi Arabia we also know that Trump

sponsored the Abraham Accords which is

trying to bring peace between Israel and

other Arab countries and unite them

against Iran okay the last thing that

Trump did which is the most important is

that in January 2020 Trump ordered the

assassination of General Kasam salamani

who who is the leader of the

Revolutionary sorry who is the leader of

the Iranian Refuge

guards okay so from all this we can

suspect that a second in a second Trump

term uh war with Iran will be a major

priority

so is this clear so far all right now we

also discussed that okay even though

there are there are these forces that

want war with

Iran ultimately it is the US military

that must implement this war and if the

US military refuses to go to war then

the war can't happen so we discussed

that unfortunately the US military is

very different from what it was 30 years

ago okay 30 years ago

the US military maintain very standard

military Doctrine okay they maintain

three very important principles that all

militaries must maintain in a time of

war the first is mass

forces uh B is um avoid encirclement

right and the third is protect supply

lines

now the the important idea is that when

you fight a war like this okay which is

traditional Warfare you must have the

consent of the public okay because it is

the public that sends soldiers that

provides money that gives you political

support but in 2003 the US military

changed its mil Doctrine to one of shock

and all okay and what shock and all

means is that

you don't have to follow these three

principles anymore you can use ear

Supremacy um you you also have

technological

omniscience and you also have special

forces and this allows you to fight Wars

cheaply quickly and decisively so that

you no longer need public political

support for fighting Wars and as we also

discussed this created the idea of

hubris

in the American Military so the American

Military because of the 2003 uh war in

Iraq are clothin that can win any War

any place against any

enemy we know that this Doctrine is

actually not true and we know because of

something called operation Prosperity

Guardian okay so um a few months ago The

Who

which are a rebel group in in Yemen they

started to attack ships in the Red Sea

okay um and a lot of trade goes through

the Red Sea so the American Military

dispatched a massive Naval Force against

the

houthis were the Americans able to

defeat the

houthis no they were

not and so what the what what what are

the Americans going to do about it

what can they do about the

houthis what's what's the solution to

this problem you have these Pirates

houthis going around and attacking these

uh ships which is affecting um

International Commerce and that's why

inflation is such a huge problem right

now in the world so what are the what's

American Military going to do about

this what can they do about

this the answer is nothing okay the

American Military has no solution why

because they don't have the forces

necessary in order to undertake an

operation against the houthis they have

special forces they have Air Supremacy

they have technological omnicient

satellites but they don't have infantry

they don't have lots and lots of ships

therefore they cannot stop the houthis

okay and what's willing point is that

Joe Biden has come out and said that yes

we know we are losing the war in the Red

Sea and yes we know that we cannot stop

the houthis but we are going to

continue on this

path okay does that make sense this is

the idea of

hubris not knowing your limitations and

when when you are faced with your

limitations you refuse to accept your

limitations okay and that's why when the

US military is given the order to invade

Iran they'll probably go along with it

because they cannot imagine the

possibility that they could be defeated

in

Iran okay and then you have the

Iran

revolutionary uh core okay the re rol

guard and as we discussed last class

they want war with the United States

because

um they're very angry about us

interference in Iran right so during the

Sha regime which was a brutal police

state from 1953 and

19779 the Americans were the ones who

were backing this police

state so there are many who are who are

angry about this they're also um angry

about the fact that the US continues to

protect protect Israel and Saudi Arabia

okay and they're also angry about the

fact that that Trump killed J general

salamini okay um and as we discussed

it's possible that uh the rary guard

Corps killed last week the president of

Iran Ibraham Ry in or because um he was

preventing War okay so they want war

with the United States so you see the

map right you you see the logic of this

where there are power forces United

States pushing the United States towards

War you have Trump who has basically

agreed in its first term to raise or

increase escalation with Iran within the

Trump White House there be Jared Kushner

and Niki heli to push this war both

privately and

publicly the US

military um has so much huis that they

think they can win this war and Iran

wants to provoke the United States into

invading it okay United St Iran can have

many and for so Iran has many many um

strategies in order to provoke the

United States into war okay basically

United States is looking for a reason

and Iran wants to give them a reason and

that's why I think war between United

States and Iran is very likely in the

next two to four

years okay any questions so far are we

clear about where we are so far be

before I I move on

any questions okay so now let's talk

about the actual War so here most of

this is speculation okay but um I'm

using speculation in order to help us

better understand what a war would look

like okay so let's pretend that it's

March

2027 okay and Trump go on TV he

announces operation Iranian Freedom a

fullscale US invasion of Iran along with

Israel Saudi Arabia as its main Partners

but United Kingdom UK will be involved

Australia will be involved UAE will be

involved Poland will be

involved okay so you have many countries

attacking um Iran together and Trump

goes on TV and explains to the American

public why the United States is fighting

this war okay and this is what Trump

says first he says that for the past

year there have been violent protests in

Iran you have religious protests you

have political protests you have ethnic

protests the Iranian people are sick of

the Ayatollah they are sick of the

dictatorship they want democracy they

want want freedom and response the reg

guard are killing thousands of

protesters Iran is on the brink of Civil

War therefore the United States has an

obligation to

protect the people of Iran okay the

people of Iran are praying for freedom

and democracy in the United States the

world's greatest democracy must give

them democracy okay so the first reason

is free freedom and

democracy

second us intelligence along with

Israeli intelligence have discovered

that for the past two years Iran has

been working very very hard on

developing a nuclear bomb in fact Iran

is only one month away from having three

nuclear

bombs so that New York City San

Francisco and Los Angeles at Los Angeles

could all be

destroyed okay so to prevent this we

must strike first to stop Iran's nuclear

program

okay

third Iranian proxies the houthis hollah

many groups have been

disrupting shipping

in the Middle East in both the Red Sea

and the sh of

hus 40% of the world's oil passes

through that region mainly to East Asia

China Japan South

Korea our Global Prosperity is at stake

we must go to war to protect these

shipping lanes and ensure that the oil

goes to China Japan and South Korea so

that they can continue their economic

Prosperity so

the United States as the world hedgemon

has a responsibility to protect Global

Prosperity

okay

four Iran has been launching attacks

against our allies Saudi Arabia and

Israel hesah has been violent attacking

Israel killing dozens of Israelis in a

and

Israelis the huies have been attacking

Saudi Arabia oil fields damaging the

economy we have an obligation to protect

our allies our friends in the Middle

East

okay and the last reason is we know for

a fact that the Iranian ref guard Corp

is a

sponsor of

terrorism last week in a mall

there were gunmen who went and killed

107 people our intelligence says that it

was most definitely an Iranian

operation okay so for these five

reasons we have decided to invade

Iran but don't

worry this Invasion will be

successful because we have a lot of

allies the

UK Israel Saudi Arabia our friends we

part of this

operation our special forces are already

in the

country looking for their air bases and

their missiles we can knock them out at

the beginning of the war also we have

been in contact with Iranian opposition

groups they want to overthrow the regime

and when we help them they will install

democracy in the country our American

Military is the greatest in the

world in 1991 our military defeated

Saddam Hussein in 100 100

hours in 2003 our military defeated s

Hussein in only in less than three

weeks to prove that we are the greatest

in the world we will defeat Iran in only

two weeks

so do not

worry we will be strong in protecting

democracy freedom and Global

Prosperity okay so that's what that's

what Donald Trump will say to the people

of the United States okay and of course

you're going to have large scale

protests throughout the country opposing

this war but most people in the country

will support

this war okay all right so after this

speech the operation is

launched and on TV we'll watch this on

TV and the internet together on YouTube

together okay and we'll be so impressed

by the power of the US

military um this is

Iran this is the straight of

humus Saudi

Arabia um Israel is

here Red Sea is here Iraq is here okay

so in the hus comes the USS Gerald art

Ford it is a$1 13 billion super carrier

okay this thing is designed to destroy

countries it is now Pro

prowling the shus to ensure that

shipping is safe

America establishes ear Supremacy very

quickly okay meaning that it has

complete control over the skies nothing

can move in the skies without America uh

detection okay and then a massive

Invasion force is sent to Iran in the

South

100,000 US troops land maybe 200,000

Saudi Arabia troops land okay maybe you

have 300,000 to half a million troops in

Iran and they are about to strike

Tan in the north okay so in the South

the United States and its allies have

established a foothold they have a huge

presence in the country and they're

about to attack Tran okay all right do

you understand what what has

happened okay now I want to ask you this

question at this point I think the war

has been

decided who has won the

war America has established Air

Supremacy it controls the

skies US Navy controls the Seas you have

100,000 US troops in country ready to

stri

Tran the war has been decided who has

won the

war okay okay obviously this is a trick

question obviously Iran has won the war

why

why what's the problem with this plan

okay this is typical American Doctrine

shocking all this is how they fight Wars

but there's a problem with this plan

what is

it why would the Iranians want this

okay let's go back to traditional

military Doctrine okay in traditional

military Doctrine you have three

principles right Mass forces avoid

encirclement protect supply lines okay

these are three three things you must

absolutely obey if you are win to war

okay so using traditional mil military

Doctrine explain to me why United States

has lost the war right

now exactly first of all they're in

circle okay do you know why because Iran

are all mountains it's a

fortress okay meaning that to get these

troops into the country you have to

eardrop

them right but

guys once they're in the country you

can't get them out of the country you

understand okay so that's a first

problem they've been in circle right

what's the second

problem why

not that's right and why

else yeah that that that that's right

okay um so they failed to mass forces

okay Iran is a population of 90 million

people you will need at least 3 to four

million soldiers to even think about

conquering the country they've got

100,000 in this country okay and as Jack

says you can't move tanks through

Mountains they're not designed for

Mountain Warfare what are you going to

do okay so they can't mask forces and

they can't and they've been en circled

and and what else is a

problem and this is the biggest

problem exactly they cannot be

resupplied okay they have no supply

lines for them to be resupplied

airplanes have to drop ammunition food

into the country but again Iran is all

mountains so it's very easy for Iranians

to shoot down the airplanes does that

make sense when you pass through

mountains you can't see what's on the

ground a guy a random guy with a rocket

launcher can just shoot down the

helicopter okay which is what the what

the Afghans did against the Soviets in

the Afghanistan war and that's why the

Soviets lost the war

War a drone can take down any airplanes

okay so in other

words these guys are

trapped that you think they're soldiers

but they're not what they really are

hostages

okay does that make sense you have too

many people in the country so you can't

get them out of the country but you

don't have enough people to actually

launch a strike against tan you can't

resupply them and they've been encircled

by Iranian

forces all right does that make

sense okay okay now the logic of having

100,000 US troops in the country is that

once in the country all the resistance

to the regime will rise up and strike

against tan the Iranian Army will mut

will Mutiny against the country okay

that's the hope why do we think this

won't

happen why won't the Iranians revolt

against their

government why don't they want to

revolt that's right okay so Iranians

hate Americans okay remember that

Iranians remember the Sha from 1953

until 1979 the shaw the American

supported Shaw was running a a brutal

police state so brutal that everyone in

Iran revolted against the regime okay

that's number one what what why else

would the Iranians not support the

Americans

why that's the first

reason Iran has a bad history of America

what else

guys which country's next

door what happened in

Iraq America destroyed Iraq right from

2003 in 2011 America was there

destroying the country America said that

it would bring freedom freedom democracy

it would bring Prosperity it would bring

wealth but instead it just destroyed the

country American soldiers were running

into houses every night pointing guns at

children destroying homes and arresting

men for no reason okay Iranians saw all

this on TV they heard about all this

from Neighbors okay so they know that if

America comes it's destroy the country

not to bring freedom democracy not to

bring prosperity it's to destroy the

country that's why they're going to

fight okay

um and another reason is

that

Iranians think that they belong to a

great civilization so they value their

freedom and Independence okay does that

make sense they're not going to submit

to a foreign conqueror

so

um why else would the Iranians

resist okay also religion right the

Iranians are Rel religious they believe

that

um that s America is Satan and they have

a duty a religious obligation to fight

Satan okay so for many reasons there's

is no way that Iran people are going to

stand with America you might have a

minority but most are are going to

resist

okay okay so does that make sense okay

any questions so far

okay so uh that's a great question why

would the Americans think that thean

people will rise up and the answer is

that they need to justify The

Invasion does that make sense they they

have to have a logical explanation for

why this Invasion will succeed because

one other the criticisms against them

will be like you need 4 million people

to invade Iran they don't have 4 million

soldiers they have at most one million

soldiers okay total throughout the

world uh they have about 60,000 in the

Middle East so they can't get a million

soldiers so their only explanation is

okay well we're going to pretend that

once we invade the people of Iran will

support us do you understand so it's not

based on truth but but it's it's a

explanation for why the The Invasion

will

succeed does that make sense

oh you know that's a great question okay

so that's their propaganda but do they

actually believe this and the answer is

um hubris okay they do believe this

because they have hubris and and again

um it's hard because we're not in your

position but once you're in that

position where you have access to

nuclear weapons when you can kill anyone

in the world when you can see everything

in the world um it makes you think

you're God

okay and we we we remember like last

semester we were reading the Greeks the

Greeks believe the worst thing is

hubris because it makes you think you're

God but you're not God and you're gonna

get into a lot of trouble if you think

you're God okay does that make sense

okay all right any more

questions Okay so

um Trump says that Iran is one month

from developing a nuclear bomb right

America's been seeing this for the past

10 years okay you just Google this and

America's like oh Iran is only one month

away from a nuclear bomb they've been

saying this for the past 10 years so do

you understand when Trump gives a speech

there's absolutely no evidence that any

of this is true okay but this is how

he'll explain the

invasion okay all right and chances are

that even if

tan uh possess a nuclear bomb they won't

use it why

not that's right um the reality is that

there's only one way that America can

win this war against Iran okay they can

just nuke the country and America will

do that I if it has enough if it has a

pre-ex okay so nuclear weapons is

something that Iran is very afraid of

okay so does it make sense all right

so this becomes so American soldiers are

trapped in this

country okay so now the question then is

wait a minute here why would America do

something so stupid as send 100,000

soldiers into the country for no reason

and get them

trapped okay so that's a question

and what I want to do now is make you

the argument that um there are two ways

that we

can prove or provide evidence that this

is true okay the first is historical

analysis historical analysis means that

are there historical examples like this

okay are there historical analogues if

there are then this could be true okay

the second uh method is for Game Theory

analysis why would the actors who are

rational do something as stupid as trap

100,000 American soldiers in Iran all

right so we'll first do historical

analysis to find Historical analoges

examples s of similar similar to this

and then we'll look at Game Theory to to

try to reason out the motivation of the

actors okay so let's first look at Game

Theory oh sorry sorry let's first look

at historical analysis okay

so the year is

415 BC okay in

Athens remember that we studied

faciiities the pelan war last semester

okay so so we will now discuss the

pelian war the war is four the year is

415 BC and for the past um 17 years

Athens have been fighting a brutal war

against Sparta okay it's a

stalemate and then for whatever

reason um a man named alab alabes okay

has a suggestion and his suggestion is

to win the war against Sparta let's go

invade

sisily and uh

Nas his

opponent is like why the hell would we

want to invade Sicily it's far way and

alabed by this is like well because it

has a lot of money and if we invade the

country we can take their money okay and

it turned out by making this argument

the people of Athens really support this

argument okay they because the reason

why is war was costing them a lot of

money and they become addicted to the

Easy Money of Empire okay so they wanted

to fight this war so

nus has this great idea of how to

convince people not to go to war

okay and what he says to the people is

okay guys I know you want to fight this

War I know I know you want to I know

that you think this war is a good idea

but Sicily is a huge place it has a

Navy therefore we need a massive

Expedition Force against Syracuse and

Sicily okay we need at least 5,000

soldiers that's a lot okay because the

total Athan population is about 50,000

people okay 5,000 soldiers is a lot for

Athens and we need about 100 ships and

the idea is nus is trying to scare

people into not agreeing to not fight

okay that's the idea the Athenians say

that's a great idea let's send a massive

Force against Sicily and Syracuse so the

war can be can be won just like that

okay shock and

all so they so the problem though is

that never before in his history has

Athens sent a large Expedition Force

against another Power okay does that

make sense when the Persians invaded

they were invading Athens Athens didn't

go invade

Persia so when you have S a massive

Expedition Force against another country

what is your number one

problem what is the thing that you must

resolve for the Athenians really think

about it because he had actually no

experience in fighting a foreign

war okay uh so yeah so the other the

enemy knows the terrain better than you

do okay but there's actually a much

bigger problem than that and it is

what okay the biggest problem is

resupply and this is something that the

aans didn't think about because they

never thought they they never fought a

war like this before okay so they sent

this huge Expedition against Sicily and

Syracuse um which was a naval power were

surprised because they were like why

would the Athenians want to invade us

okay so for the first year the phans

were

destroying uh the Syracuse Army and the

Syracuse Army had to retreat back into

their City okay and so the f is late

Siege to

the city the Athenians Syracuse is here

the Athenians are here and the Athenians

control the sea

right okay so this situation is very

similar to this situation okay do you

understand but then what happened was

that the Athenians couldn't resupply

themselves the reason why is Syracuse

had also had a navy and they could stop

the aian Navy from resupplying the

Athenian troops and

therefore the Athenian Army was wiped

out in Sicily and this caus the

Athenians to ultimately lose the war

against Sparta and it caused the

Athenian Empire to

collapse okay do you understand and

again historians have been trying to

figure out for a long time why the

Athenians would do such a stupid thing

as as as to send a huge Army against

Syracuse because the risk of failure

here was

catastrophic okay and the only answer is

well the

Athenians had hubis okay they never

really lost a

war and they had become addicted to

Empire which is the same situation

America finds itself in today okay does

that make sense guys all

right so this has happened before in

history when the Athenians invaded

Sicily and lost to Syracuse their entire

Army was wiped out in Syracuse okay

because they couldn't resupply their

army does that make sense all right the

second example we can look at is the

Vietnam

War so in in the beginning of 1960 okay

in the beginning of the decade most

Americans have never heard of a country

called

Vietnam okay most Americans didn't know

what it was didn't know where it was

okay by the end of the decade in

1969 half a

million American soldiers were in the

country destroying everything okay but

also getting destroyed themselves

58,000 US soldiers died in

Vietnam so the question then is how this

happen why would this happen 1960

Vietnam was a distant country no one's

ever heard of by by the end of the

decade half a million US soldiers were

in country fighing this war against an

enemy they really didn't know okay in

1971 um the Pentagon papers came

out and the Pentagon papers uh was a

history of America's involvement in the

Vietnam War dating back to 1950s okay

and it made three major points the first

point is that

American leadership military leadership

has been expanding the war in

Vietnam without public knowledge okay

this is what we call Mission

creep so maybe at first they sent some

observers to the country then they sent

some advisors then trainers then

soldiers okay so Mission creep slowly

over

time um things escalate and you don't

understand why things escalate but they

do

okay second point is that American

leadership from very early on knew the

war was

unwinable this was the greatest military

in the world they dropped more bombs in

Vietnam in the

60s than all bombs were dropped in World

War II

okay and they could not win the war the

reason why is to win a war you have to

solve three problems okay okay the first

problem

is playar strategy

okay what are you trying to accomplish

in this

country what are your clear military

objectives okay second

is you must adopt to the battlefield

okay because all your best plans will

change over the course of battle okay so

the the the adversary that is most

willing to adapt to the battlefield will

win Okay the third thing is the will to

fight so if you want to look at a war

and who's most likely to win the war you

ask these three questions one does this

guy have clear military objectives that

everyone understands because that will

determine strategy okay second is is

this guy a adapting to the

battlefield the third is is this

guy um this does this guy still have the

will to fight and if the answer is yes

all three questions then the person will

most likely win the war okay and if you

look at the Vietnam War even

though America was killing a lot of

people it killed three million

Vietnamese during the course of the war

it was not destroying the enemy's will

to fight in fact it was making them

angrier and therefore more people people

willing to fight the

Americans okay so from a very so very

early on the American political

leadership knew the war could not be won

so then the question then is why did

America stay in the war and the answer

is

credibility

okay credibility just means they didn't

want to lose face they didn't want to be

laughed at by the Chinese and by the

Soviets

and by the Europeans okay but there's

actually another uh way to understand

credibility and it's it's what we call

the

sunk cost

fallacy okay have you guys heard of the

sunk cost

fallacy and the idea

is never ever go into a casino the

reason why is that when you go to the

casino you start losing money at some

point you cannot leave the casino why

not exactly you want to you want to

reclaim the money you've lost okay

you've invested so much that you cannot

leave you have to get that money back

and that's a problem with war eventually

you've invested so much you cannot leave

the war and that's what happened in

Vietnam America invested so much it can

it didn't want to leave the war because

it did not want to admit that all this

um has been lost okay it's what we call

the sunk cause fallacy that's

why even though America could not win

the war it still want to fight the

war okay does that make sense okay so

the Vietnam war is another

example okay that is similar to to

this where America invests enough

soldiers that it refuses to leave the

war and Aid defeat okay does that make

sense guys all right now let's look at

one more example and this is the uh most

recent example and it's the Russian

Ukraine war now as you know in February

2022 Putin ordered uh a special military

operation against

Ukraine okay and uh this is

Ukraine and Russia attacked from three

axises okay the North to take K the

capital you have the East to take

dones and then you have the south from

from uh Crea to take the South okay and

as we know uh the north fail okay the

north attack failed and the Russians had

to turn back but the

East and the South was successful okay

now let's think about this you have an

extremely powerful military attacking

your country the Ukraine

if you were the Ukrainian president if

you were the Ukrainian military there's

really only one way you can fight this

war and when and what is it using

traditional military Doctrine what how

much you fight this war you guys

know let's go back to mass forces avoid

in circle men protect supply lines how

much you fight this war there's only one

way you you you can fight this war

excuse

me how do you disrupt supply

lines there's only one way you can fight

this war and win and what is

it the the enemy is attacking you right

so what what must you

do okay the answer is you must

Retreat okay

why the enem is attacking right so you

pull back your forces

why would you do that what's the logic

of

that exactly okay it's it's as simple

okay you want to overextend your enemy

Ukraine is a huge country right and and

Russia didn't send send that that that

many soldiers maybe 160,000 that's not

that many soldiers so if you just give

them space they're going to outrun the

supply lines okay and then when they

outrun their supply lines you can

encircle them and you can disrupt their

supply and that's the only way you can

win the war okay what did the ukrainians

do

instead that's the only way to win this

war but what did what did the ukrainians

do instead which made them lose the

war yeah so the ukrainians refuse to

give up give up space okay they refuse

to give up land they want to fight the

Russians for every inch of

territory and eventually because the

Russians had more forces Mass forces

they were able to push push through okay

so that's the first major mistake that

Ukraine

made but then last

summer Ukraine launched something called

a counter offensive right so once Russia

was able to take space it it because and

because Russia is a land Army it started

to De to develop um fortifications

defenses okay mainly artillery that

three lines of defenses and in the

summer

offensive the Ukrainian military for

whatever reason sent tens of thousands

hundreds of thousands of soldiers

against the this artillery and the

Russians blew every everyone up

okay now here's a

question why are the ukrainians doing

this they've lost the war now right they

have no more soldiers right now the

average age of the Ukrainian Army is

about it's over 40 years old they have

guys from their 60s and 70s fighting in

the military they don't have enough

manpower the war is

lost why would the ukrainians do do this

first of all why would they fight for

every inch of territory and why would

they launch a counter offensive against

a superior enemy a superior

enemy what's a

problem okay the first

is the president

zalinski the guy a TV actor okay which

means that he doesn't think strategy he

just thinks what looks good on

TV so for the first two years of the war

we're watching this on TV right it

looked as though the ukrainians were

going to win this

war right it I remember like two years

ago people were saying that the

ukrainians are going to march to Moscow

and overthrow Putin people are saying

that okay and the reason why is that

zilinski is is a master of Public Image

manipulation okay he was distorting

reality for people through

television the problem with that though

is it's not reality guys okay reality

the reality on the ground is very

different from TV okay so who else is

like zilinsky in this world Trump is

exactly like uh zilinski okay do you

understand Trump is also concerned about

what looks good on TV he's like I must

look

strong we must look as though we're

winning this war he doesn't really care

about strategy okay so because of this

it's very likely that he orders a land

invasion of Iran because it would look

good on TV okay so the problem with

zinsky is he cared about what looked

good as opposed to actually what

actually worked okay but you also have

other problems like you have

extremists in the Ukrainian military

okay and guys uh these extremists

they're Nazis they're

neo-nazis and so um the traditional

understanding of Neo of Nazis are people

who kill Jews okay but the Russians

don't understand Nazis that way because

because remember Germany and and the

Soviet Union fought fought this

War so the Russians understood Nazis to

be enemies of Russia who want to kill

Russians and there were many neo-nazis

in Ukraine they hate Russia they wanted

to kill as many Russians as

possible okay and they're they're the

ones who are pushing for as much War as

possible okay so you have these

extremists in the Ukrainian

military the last reason is

NATO so it's an Open Secret that NATO is

helping the Ukraine Ukrainian military

against Russia you have NATO military

advisors devising strategy against

Russia okay so it's most likely that the

summer offensive last uh last summer was

a NATO plan and not a Ukrainian plan

it's possible we also know that NATO

special forces are in the country

directing missile strikes against

Russian forces

okay which means

what if if this is true and

if um Ukraine loses the war meaning that

it doesn't have enough soldiers to

continue to fight this war what will

NATO

do yeah yeah I mean according to what

happened to Vietnam War and uh the

Athenians uh Expedition against Sicily

it is most ly that the most likely

outcome will be that NATO sends its own

troops against

Russia okay so macron of France have

said that we are we want to send French

soldiers and the British um prime

minister has said that he is considering

conscription for British people okay

which means that young British uh

citizens will be drafted into the army

to fight Russia

all right so these are three historical

examples that are very similar to what

could happen in Iran okay does that make

sense

guys all right any questions before I

continue all right is this clear so far

all

right now let's use another mode of

analysis called game analysis okay and

this is what I've been teaching you uh

this uh semester and the idea is that

Society what happens in the real world

is a game among human

beings okay so so and each person is

trying to play this game as to optimize

the outcome for that

person okay so the question then

is why would the United States send

100,000 troops into Iran so let's look

at the individual motivations of the

individual players okay so you have the

United

States what does the United States want

to

do what what what what does it want to

do by by doing

one and accomplishing

one it wants to top of the regime in in

tran right and you can only do that for

a ground Invasion okay okay so the

United States is trying to topple

Iran but then you also have other actors

okay

so um Iran what does Iran want to

do what what does Iran want to

do or the basically the Revolutionary G

Corp what do they want to

do ex me they want to kill as many

Americans as possible okay you

understand they want to force an

American Landing Invasion okay so Iran

wants to force a US invasion knowing

that if the US invades it has to lose

the war okay it will lose the war

because the re guard can just send

suicide bombers against the United

States okay now let's look at

Israel okay we know that the United

States wants to top of Iran we know that

Iran wants to force a US invasion to

defeat the the the Americans to

humiliate the Americans and and um exact

revenge for what happened in the past

okay what does Israel want to do what is

is Israel's optimal outcome you guys

know if you're Israel what do you want

to

happen Okay so you you you want Iran

defeated okay and then what do you want

to happen you want Iran defeated you

want the prox defeated and then what

what do you want to

happen do you want the United States to

stay in the Middle

East what happens if United States what

happens if United States and Iran both

lose the war mean Iran is destroyed as a

country the United States is destroyed

as a military presence in the Middle

East what would

happen Israel becomes the top dog in the

Middle East do you understand okay

Israel can now control the entire Middle

East so the timal outcome for Israel is

Iran and United States are both

destroyed okay you understand how about

how about Saudi Arabia what is their

optimal optimal outcome

exactly the same as isual exactly okay

do you

understand okay which will leave the

Middle East to Saudi Arabia and Israel

but Israel is a far superior military

than Saudi Arabia okay remember like

it's very easy to blow up Saudi Arabia

they have oil fields okay not that hard

not that easy to blow um Israel so

Israel becomes a top dog you understand

game theory in other words all the major

participants want an

invasion of

Iran okay but they want different

outcomes and Saudi Arabia in Israel most

benefit if this situation happens where

you have 100,000 US troops in the

country and they can't get out okay

because it becomes some cost fallacy

United States can only Point more

soldiers does that make sense all

right so is this clear to you guys okay

you can either use historical analysis

to get to this outcome but you can also

use Game Theory to get to this

outcome any questions so

far okay great okay so Seline asked the

most pival question

okay the United States has nuclear

weapons which is its ultimate trump card

right so what what Trump can say to Tran

is like I have 100,000 troops in country

you have to let them go or I will nuke

you okay you understand Trump trump can

say that listen I'm Trump I'm Donald

Trump I need to look strong I have

100,000 troops in the country I can't

get them out of the country so he says

to Teran you either let them go okay you

either gu guarantee him self safe

passage out of the country or I will

nuke

you right so that's what that that's

what will happen that is what Donald

Trump will do once the situation

arises the only way for Donald Trump to

say face is to threaten tan and says you

either let my my guys go or I will nuke

the entire

country

right so how does Tran get out of this

situation how do the Iranians protect

themselves against this possibility

because as because you're absolutely

right this is exactly what will happen

if this situation will arise Trump will

respond with nuclear weapons or a threat

of nuclear weapons so what must the

Iranians do to protect to protect

themselves against this

possibility who who can help the the

Iranians

now Russia okay do you understand so

before this war happens Iran and Russia

must come to an agreement where Putin

says from the out from from the onset no

one is allowed to use nuclear

weapons okay if Iran US US nuclear

weapons I will nuke Iran if the United

States use use nuclear weapons I will

nuke the United

States if Israel use nuclear weap I will

nuke Israel okay Putin if Putin says

that how will the world

react if Putin says this you are not

allowed to use nuclear weapons how will

the world

react he's a hero right he saved

Humanity but because he says this the

United States is now trapped

okay you understand and so this becomes

a black hole for the United States where

they can only send in more

troops they can't get any troops out

they can only send in more

troops what's a problem with this what's

the problem sending more

troops no there's there's actually a

huge problem with this idea of sending

more troops what what is

it okay you can't like no one wants to

go fight you understand the military

cannot recruit

soldiers all right but even if you if

you did have enough

troops as Jack says you can't resupply

them

why why can't you actually resupply your

army why

not there but there's a bigger problem

than the supply lines what is it what do

you need to create bullets and

ammunition America has no manufacturing

capacity because America moved all its

manufa capacity to China okay remember

this so for every one ship that America

can build China can build 232 ships

that's what the Pentagon

says can do you

understand so if this were to were if

this war were to

happen there's absolutely no way America

can win this war it's just completely

trapped inside Iran and once it becomes

trapped some cost fallacy comes into

play and America just puts in all its

resources into the country but it's a

black hole okay they cannot use nuclear

weapons because Putin I said from the

from the onset you are not allowed to

use nuclear weapons

right but now the question then is why

would Putin do that right why would

Putin involve himself in this war and

that's what we'll discuss next class all

right how Putin sees this war and how

Putin will react in this war okay but um

before we end are there any questions

about any of this does this make sense

to you guys is this

clear any questions

oh that's a great question yeah um so

the the problem with Iraq is that Iraq

is an independent country you understand

there are 10,000 American soldiers in

Iraq

um so you would need you would need

their their permission even if you had

their permission there's a problem

problem here because there are lots of

Shia militia men in Iraq who are loyal

to Iraq okay and they would see the

American Invasion Force as something as

opportunity to attack the Americans okay

because they're still anger about the

Americans for what happened in Iraq but

even if they could have a staging area

in Iraq they still they still have to

deal with mountains okay do you

understand all right I mean the problem

is you have 100,000 troops in the

country you have to get out of the

country okay and it's very hard to get

get them out of the country if you go

through the mountains you're going to

get this you're going to get ambush in

the mountains if you go through the ear

th those drones are going to strike you

down that's that's the issue

okay right does that make sense okay any

more

questions okay great so uh on Friday

we'll talk about Putin okay