The Return of Stimulus Checks & Recession [Do This NOW].

and we are on the brink of a 2008 style

financial crisis oh we got to take out

the needle for this one because you know

you may have heard a lot about recession

lately and it's likely that you're

frustrated by the contradictory messages

that you're receiving one moment there's

no recession at all the next we're on

the brink of economic collapse it seems

like everybody is playing tug of war

with our lives especially if you read

YouTube titles Republicans want to

convince you that the current Democratic

Administration is absolutely a failing

you know this is the unintended

consequence of the fed's monetary policy

uh layered with really bad fiscal policy

on top of it while Democrats want you to

believe everything is just a fine really

we have a strong and resilient economy I

know President Biden will talk about

that as you mentioned the unemployment

rate is at a 53-year low the truth is

they're both using our emotions to

manipulate the narrative and it's time

for us to finally take control of the

conversation so take a sip of coffee

buckle up and let's break down all of

this so we can finally talk about what's

going on with the recession and whether

or not there are going to be some stemi

checks because there is a scenario where

the stemi checks start rolling again so

buckle up

[Music]

so not only is the media sending mixed

signals but data from various sources

points to really A Tale of Two Cities

consider this a Gallop a pole of this

week cited that half of Americans said

their financial situation was worse than

it had been a year earlier marking the

most negative sentiment since the Great

Recession meanwhile the consumer

conference board's leading economic

index experienced an unexpectedly sharp

drop reaching its lowest points since

November of 2020 and marking its 12th

consecutive decline this is the longest

decline that we have seen since the

Great Recession and the fact is that as

subprime lending Titans lenders are

ramping up car repossessions to the

point that the Wall Street Journal just

reported repo companies are so excited

yet still struggling to find enough

workers that this could be the Christmas

of repossessions

jerks people are also changing their

spending habits those who used to shop

at Whole Foods are now more likely to

shop at Walmart Sam's Club or Costco

they're opting for private label Brands

like the Kirkland brand or the target

Archer Farms brand however not everyone

has the luxury to do that they've

already traded down this reminds me of

when I was a kid and we were losing our

childhood home and I couldn't buy snack

well cookies anymore or any cookies for

that matter because we were losing my

childhood home and we had no money left

my favorite treats were no longer in the

cart at all and this reminds me a lot of

The Tale of Two Cities see this is sort

of the bad tale but on the flip side

you've got companies like lvmh the

company that owns Louis Vuitton and

Sephora reporting their last earnings

that people are still spending like

crazy and spending its quote soaring

they say you know what what recession

there is no recession but you know this

mirrors what they said in September of

2008 right when Lehman Brothers went

bankrupt when Revenue finally bottomed

out though for this brand the federal

reserve's bailout was already underway

and the stock continued to perform well

so once again it's the poor and working

Americans who suffer the longest

while the rich pay the price for the

shortest amount of time of these

capitalistic Cycles it really highlights

The Divide between the bottom up and the

top-down economy for adding to this

frustration Procter and Gamble is

boasting about its ability to raise

prices 10 year over year during their

earnings reported last week and at the

same time their Freight and input costs

are dropping but they're not passing

those benefits on to Consumers they're

handsomely rewarding their shareholders

all while Republicans and Democrats

sling dirt at each other and really the

people who are the business owners and

shareholders line their pockets and so

this video is designed to channel our

anchor to cut through the noise and

provide you with the facts and

strategies to navigate these uncertain

times we'll dive in to make sense of

this economic roller coaster and if you

like this content give it a like

consider sharing it with somebody who

consider it motivation or useful or

maybe providing some clarity so what

causes a recession well to understand

what's really going on we've got to

start by examining the causes of a

recession because today's data is so

many that the economic magazine The

Economist at a great Brit which covers

the United States all the time says our

economy is much like the Mona Lisa every

time you look at it you see something

different and it's hard to understand

what the hell is actually happening so

hopefully by cutting through some of

this we can have some more clarity so

technically a recession is defined by

two quarters of negative GDP growth we

already had that gross domestic product

the sum of all the production of America

already went negative for two quarters

2022 quarter one and 2022 Quarter Two

it's the first half of last year other

factors a combination of hard and soft

data paint a really blurry picture and

really everybody's kind of looking at

like hey National Bureau of economic

research what are you going to tell us

like we're officially in a recession and

the reality is if we look at historical

data they're going to tell you this

we'll tell you that we were in a

recession two years after we were in a

recession so what good does that really

do this makes the economic picture

pretty complicated so are we in a

recession well according to the bond

market and measures known as the

inverted yield curve were bound to be in

a recession now in three months six

months or technically I suppose we could

break the trend and not go into a

recession at all although that would be

the first time we've broken recession we

have no idea what the bond market is

telling us in terms of when we should be

in a recession some say the third or

fourth quarter of this year as people's

savings run out but then I try to chase

down people's savings and this is

absolutely freaky see in my opinion what

could really lead us into a recession is

when people run out of money because

when people run out of money they stop

buying stuff like Pokemon mugs or

needlers and that lack of spending from

one person ends up leading to layoffs of

another person who then can't spend

money either

but the lack of savings was really

propped up that Americans had throughout

the pandemic our average savings balance

went from somewhere around five thousand

dollars to an average savings balance of

Thirteen thousand nine hundred now that

excess savings started to fall during

2022 as we would expect and that's why

everybody's saying that's it we're going

to recession average savings are going

down savings rates going down we're

screwed

well what ended up happening was those

started to reverse the savings rate

started to tick up again and Bank of

America just reported that individual

savings not just new deposits from the

banking crisis actually started rotating

higher again take a listen to this

from Peak last April it fell down a

little bit over the course of the year

and it's built up over the first part of

the year it's slowly built up again in

other words people's savings have built

up again this is where Robert Schiller a

Princeton Economist comes in and

suggests that consumers spend less as

housing prices fall which they did

between May and December of 2022 home

prices fell significantly

but then they started Rising again at

the beginning of this year according to

redfin's Data Center which aligns with

the rise again of savings but that is

not recessionary

on top of that Bloomberg is now

reporting that 77 of s p 500 companies

the largest 500 in the world

have that have reported so far have

already beat expectations which is

unusual during a recession so it doesn't

seem like we're in a recession now it

also doesn't seem like we're really

trending towards the recession of

people's savings are growing up and down

so then we might look at job loss in the

current economy is experiencing job loss

we hear about it regularly Madoff hey

you know which is Facebook Amazon Google

you hear about the layoffs all over the

place but apparently our economy has so

many job openings through a measure

known as the joltz indicator the job

openings and labor turnover survey which

suggests there's somewhere around 1.9

jobs for every person who's unemployed

which may

explain why we hear of all these layoffs

and the unemployment rate keeps going

down how are there more layoffs but the

unemployment rate goes down well that

means in aggregate the economy is

actually hiring more people than it's

firing which that makes you wonder is

this just a spring cleaning of Labor

which is really insensitive to say but

it does make you scratch your head like

is this just sort of a re-jiggering

because maybe people are becoming more

adaptable after all I think Americans

are extremely hard workers and I think

after covet we all realize that we value

experiences with each other more but we

also got inspired to get our financial

situation in order as much as possible

and even though over the past three

years it's been tough and it somewhat

feels like what God giveth God taketh

away people are resilient

and so it's no surprise that we've been

adding over 200 000 jobs on average per

month for the last year

and so we can pay attention to

unemployment as a recession indicator

especially since Elizabeth Warren is

freaking out at Jerome Powell suggesting

hey if the unemployment rate takes up

one percent it's likely to take up two

percent and that means a lot of people

are going to lose their jobs and maybe

the unemployment rate is just a really

bad indicator that we're in or going

into a recession in fact there have been

plenty instances where the unemployment

rate has actually peaked and basically

at the end of a recessionary cycle that

is after the recession was technically

deemed to be over so maybe job loss

isn't what we want to pay attention to

maybe there are other things to pay

attention to like what the Federal

Reserve is going to do and how the

Federal Reserve is going to react see

historical data clearly links job lost

recession but if it's delayed

information then the procession could be

over we worried about a recession

anymore when the unemployment rate

finally Peaks it's gonna be bad at least

people are going to have to have lost

their jobs and there are going to be

things that you want to do to protect

yourself in case that were to happen to

you so that way you're not in a bad

situation but well let's understand

instead how the Federal Reserve could

potentially dictate the outcome of how

bad this crisis is going to be I think

there were three paths the number one

path is that if the underlying disease

of our economy is inflation

and it ends up going away then maybe the

Federal Reserve is right we could end up

seeing a soft Landing that is if what

the FED is fighting is the cancer of

inflation

then maybe the Federal Reserve can

actually land this economy and we could

just normalize maybe all the scary data

that we're seeing is just going from

Euphoria to normal and we're leveling

off and that's why we're seeing some

negative data and as long as inflation

goes away quickly which there are three

parts to that part number one is Goods

inflation part number two is housing

inflation part number three is Services

inflation we're already seeing the first

one as long as that continues and then

we get housing disinflation rents

finally start coming down or stabilizing

stop raising rents this freaking much

and then eventually we start seeing

travel entertainment and and things like

airfares start coming down then maybe

the Federal Reserve could relax their

policies we could just go back to sort

of a normalized environment of course if

the disease is inflation and it turns

out that we've over tightened and

inflation ends up going away then this

is where we could actually and

potentially see The Return of stimulus

to help support the economy

see Milton Friedman tells us that

inflation is a function of the money

supply but this isn't the entire picture

see Milton Friedman says look inflation

occurs when you print money essentially

when the money supply expands and while

to some extent that's true it hasn't

been correct but for one instance over

the last 40 years and I want you to pay

attention to this because it could show

us why we might actually see stimulus

checks again this is kind of

mind-blowing so if you look at the M2

money supply over the last 40 years and

we use the St Louis federal reserve's

chart here to give us some insight into

this what do we find well we find that

we've had this gradual increase in the

money supply for the last 40 years and

we had no inflation we had almost under

two percent inflation to the point where

the Federal Reserve thought they might

drop the inflation Target they had to

1.75 because we had so little inflation

but the money supply was expanding

so why was there no inflation and why

did we get inflation recently we got

inflation recently because the rate of

money supply expansion changed so

rapidly there this is really for your

fancy math nerds the first derivative

the acceleration of your car we hit the

gas so hard that our heads got flown

against the back of the car that is what

caused inflation just going from 0 to 60

at a normal pace and printing money like

normal not saying the right thing to do

is print money but it's what happens

okay cause no inflation it was the oh

God that caused the disease of inflation

and if that's the case and we slowly and

gradually start printing money again

because right here we should be

expecting disinflation or maybe even

deflation which is certainly a Kathy

Woody and argument but if that's the

case then it is entirely possible that

we start seeing forms of stimulus again

and I think they'll be catered to very

specific groups for example we might see

stimulus checks again direct cash

payments like those that were

distributed multiple times during the

covet pandemic whether it was twelve

hundred dollars fourteen hundred dollars

six hundred dollars not in that order

because the order was 1200 614. but I

would suspect that those whom there

would be the biggest appetite to support

would be our lower income Americans the

Americans trying to get a leg up not

everyone again doesn't make sense the

income thresholds were too high last

time just like in California where

California was sending people making

half a million dollars a year at their

family households stimulus checks in

October of 2022 well we're experiencing

some of the largest inflation ever but

don't get me started on bagging on the

governor of California

the second thing we might see is some

form of expanded unemployment benefit

not something that's going to discourage

people from working but increasing the

eligibility and maybe job training

credits or direct payments to help you

spend money on getting licensed becoming

a CPA investing in yourself to become a

financial advisor or real estate agent

maybe we'll see tax credits style

benefits like that which don't have the

direct impact of quickly printing so

much money that we end up causing a

second wave of inflation but instead

gradual support tools like supporting

smaller businesses the government could

offer low interest loans or grants or

really financial assistance programs to

help these businesses stay afloat again

of course other forms of stimulus that

we are already seeing would be things

like infrastructure spending to help

massive projects in America get off the

ground like battery factories or not

just battery factories but chip

manufacturing or vehicle manufacturing

to bring jobs back to America in

addition to more tax Cuts or credits to

encourage people to abide or be able to

afford electric vehicles we could see

more of these so that way the agenda of

our government and supporting people

getting better jobs in either

manufacturing or having skills uh like

becoming a realtor or CPA or a lender or

financial advisor or buying an electric

vehicle could be easier so we could see

more of this targeted style stimulus and

of course an expansion of direct

payments for those making below I would

guess a hundred thousand dollars a year

I'm gonna be below that six figure

threshold so that way individuals could

get twelve hundred dollar direct

payments or however to help them through

the potential impact of the Federal

Reserve having tightened too much as

long as inflation goes away but all of

that goes to poops if inflation doesn't

go away and see that's the third

potential scenario from the Federal

Reserve is that inflation doesn't go

away now I'm a big fan of already

investing in companies like ship

companies or energy companies because

they are getting those stimulus checks

I'm a big fan of that however there's no

guarantee the stock market will do

fantastic going forward while I believe

the economy is going through a Nike

Swoosh style recovery where we bottomed

out in October and we're up from there

while I have that optimism there's no

guarantee look at this here is a

JPMorgan chart suggesting that you

should hedge the federal reserve's pivot

because the reality is if it's a

mid-cycle pivot stocks might go up if it

was a pre-recession pivot stocks might

end up faltering and going down Barclays

reiterated exactly this suggesting that

when the Federal Reserve ends its hiking

cycle this black line here in the middle

the stock market can pretty much do

anything and if you go over here after

the first cut which is this black line

over here the stock market can pretty

much do anything so there's no one set

rule that says the Market's definitely

going to go up or go down I might have

the opinion the Market's going to go up

but there's no guarantee you that

especially and this is scenario three

for the FED if the disease of the FED is

inflation and it's not gone with

continued tightening

Buckle Up Get Ready for War

and buy guns and ammo because things are

going to get crazy as the Federal

Reserve continues to hike interest rates

further and really drives us into a deep

dark recession that is the scenario

where maybe we get some form of

depression now I don't think leading

indicators suggest that because we see

plenty of indicators showing that

inflation is starting to fall but prices

are still going up and a lot of people

ask me like Kevin how could that be true

how could prices still be going up but

inflation is going down well the FED

doesn't actually care to make your life

easier or to make it cheaper for you to

survive it's very frustrating the FED

seems pretty much employed by the rich

people in America to make their lives

easier and to make sure they get bailed

out like when their Bank collapses but

what actually happens in the meantime

well the Federal Reserve is suggesting

that hey hey your 100 carton of eggs now

only costs 102 so while it's going up

we're at two percent inflation it's not

back to the five dollars it was previous

isolate it might be up a lot but that's

okay we have achieved our goal yeah oops

now until we see permanent job loss it's

likely that Americans are going to

listen to this information and just say

all right man look we're just going to

keep spending because we're pissed about

what we went through with coven and

that's exactly what American Express is

revealing American Express is revealing

that Millennials and gen z's are

continuing to drive spending growth

they've increased their spending about

28 percent and when you compare that to

Boomers who only increase they're

spending eight percent you wonder why

maybe because Boomers and Gen X own the

majority of assets like most of the

stocks that exist over 80 percent of

them Millennials only own about 2.3

percent of the stock market and so the

stock market downturn a more

disproportionately really affected older

individuals and as a result we see

they're spending down but younger folks

are spending more especially as their

pay seems to be going up in fact there

are people on Reddit threads companion

and complaining about having to pay

taxes for the first time instead of

getting a tax refund because they made

too much money last year business

spending has also seen similar changes

with small and mid-sized businesses

experience a six percent increase in

spending while larger businesses have

seen a 34 increase in spending now

what's fascinating is that 83 percent of

small businesses are operated by people

over 35 years old

this aligns with the shrinking of older

folks spending less money and small and

mid-sized businesses spending less money

because they're probably dominantly

operated by people over 35 and younger

individuals under 35 spending more money

so this makes me wonder if we're

experiencing a change of the Guard is

the economy transitioning to one that

rewards remote work artificial

intelligence machine learning Robotics

and basically travel and entertainment

things that younger people are much more

inclined to support now nobody can

predict the future with certainty

whether they have a crystal ball or

they're a politician as a licensed

financial advisor an ETF manager creator

of wealth building courses all linked

down below for Real Estate or stocks I

may not have a crystal ball and I'm

certainly not a politician but I can

offer you some practical advice the

number one most important thing to

consider to make sure you could build

wealth during this period and quite

frankly get rich is invest in assets

forget about the ups and downs and the

hoopla of this nonsense because reality

is nobody freaking knows hey maybe I'll

be right with my Nike Swoosh thesis and

I'm putting my money where my mouth is

but I'm a big fan of diversify your

portfolio make sure that when you're

investing in stocks you're diversifying

use actively managed ETFs that could do

the diversifying for you if you prefer

or passively manage ETF based or

index-based ETFs like the NASDAQ if

you're going to invest in the NASDAQ

Technologies consider qqqm it's cheaper

than QQQ and it's the same thing when it

comes to real estate make sure that you

get started by buying your first

property get ready for those

opportunities and the reality is those

opportunities might be here now we're

facing a very competitive environment

with still very low inventory but there

are still great opportunities for you to

get access to when you go buy a home get

something that's a little bit of a fixer

rubber put some Sweat Equity in it and

see your net worth explode when it comes

to credit make sure you're establishing

it as best as possible make an extra

payment than you usually do every month

trick that algorithm to make it know

that you care about your finances right

now keep track of your expenses and

cancel subscriptions you don't need hold

off on buying a new car because you

don't want to take on more debt during

these uncertain times Embrace taller

cost to averaging timing the market is

really difficult and it's not just

because you have to time the market once

on getting out but you have to time the

market twice to get back in So timing is

very difficult because you're really

focused on two occasions that you have

to time the market it's not just a one

time it's a two-time that's very

difficult and works in both directions

you can also build today which generally

I'm not the biggest fan of but today it

makes sense I have some kind of cash

emergency fund because right now you're

going to be getting paid four to five

percent on your cash just sitting around

whether it's in uh money market funds

Robin Hood wealth from or some of your

banks that are offering 3D C or three

month CDs consider asking your bank what

it offers otherwise just do a Google

search high yield savings account right

now and you'll find plenty over four

percent right now it's incredible also

do what you can to pay down that higher

interest rate debt because that's going

to be a burden when it's time for you to

go buy real estate and that's really

going to explode your net worth also

consider expanding your network

be aware of whom around you is actually

focused on their finances and when

you're hanging around people who care

about getting ahead in life you tend to

also care about getting ahead in life

this is also a perfect opportunity to

enhance your skill set whether you use

online courses like those that I have or

read some books that are a lot thus

expensive you could use something like

short form to get inspiration via super

powered book summaries that is a sponsor

on the channel by the way you can go to

shortform.com meet Kevin get 25 off or

you find a different way like a mentor

to help you learn how to build wealth

either way you want to do everything you

can to stay focused in this time during

these times it's very easy to get

pessimistic and that pessimism can

really keep you down it can make you

feel like you're going one step forward

and two steps for a back and that's not

what you want to feel like and I'll tell

you everybody feels that way I feel that

way too no matter how much it feels like

you've got your act together do what you

can to stay informed look for

opportunity communities build your

knowledge and if you can even create

multiple forms of income side hustles

that end up giving you more skills are

always worth it side hustle driving a

forklift probably not going to be super

useful in the long term because it's not

building you extra skills customer

service serving people working with

people might be really good because it

can help you in the future uh as a

professional whether it's a realtor or

CPA lender who knows bottom line out of

everything though remain optimistic and

that's going to help you build wealth

because even though it's so easy to be

jaded in the environment that we're in

today because it feels like it's always

the rich getting richer I want you to

think about this

times are tough but be thankful about

these times because anytime I've

experienced very difficult times before

whether it was losing my childhood home

when I was a child well childhood home

or back when I was working at Jamba

Juice and I was working overtime to

upsell people food and drinks at a time

where the market was so trash people

were telling me why would you get into

real estate get a real job meanwhile it

took me 11 months to sell my first

property and people were trying to

demotivate me and discourage me

good thing I stuck with it though

because that really helped me build a

career at the bottom of the market which

ended up being one of the best times to

learn because if you could make it at

the bottom you could make it to the top

and enjoy the top and stay at the top

because that's the goal One Foot In

Front of the other stay optimistic thank

you so much for watching consider

subscribing sharing the video if you

liked it leave a comment let me know

what you liked or what issues you're

dealing with or what you'd like to see a

video on next thanks so much for

watching good luck and we'll see in the

next one

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foreign