Fed just FREAKED: SH9T "We're Behind."

Michelle Bowman, who is a contender for

the Federal Reserve seat that Jerome Pow

holds, just gave us some commentary. And

boy, there's a lot of commentary around

jobs and what she sees in terms of

emergency relief uh and the

responsibility of the Federal Reserve in

response to this emergency relief. We

got to talk about exactly what she just

said. Shout out by the way Tesla on our

meet Kevin Alpha report this morning. We

called the 414 bounce. We've been

calling for days that we were going to

414. We bounced off 414 and guess what

we did this morning? Turn bullish on

Tesla, baby. Let's go. 414 bounce. Got

the Cyber Truck shirt on because of it.

So, what does Bowman tell us? Well,

obviously

>> coupon code expiring soon.

>> It's linked below. It's at me.com. Okay.

Fed Bowman says, "Recent data show a

materially more fragile labor market

with inflation x tariffs hovering not

far above target." So she's basically

saying, "Hey, we're like a little above

target on inflation, but quote, there is

materially more fragility in the labor

market." That's a big red flag. She says

the time for the FOMC to act decisively

and proactively to address the

decreasing labor market dynamism is now

and that there are emerging signs of

fragility. She's she is a full-on dove

here, which is great. Uh this is

actually exactly what Donald Trump is

looking for. So it's unclear how much of

this is her sort of applying for the job

for Fed chairperson or Fed chair woman.

Uh anyway, uh he's like so used to

saying chairman Powell, right? But

anyway, uh right now markets are pricing

in now two full cuts by my birthday,

January 28th, 2026.

Uh as of this morning, we were actually

only at like 1.8 cuts priced in. So,

we've actually moved up on fully pricing

in those three cuts. Uh the one we just

got and then two more by January 28th

birthday. Uh it'll be an even number of

years, so it's going to be a good year

next year. Uh,

this year has been good, too. Not that

there's anything wrong with odd numbers.

Not to offend the odds, you know. But

anyway, uh, Michelle Bowman says,

"Recent data, including benchmark

payroll v revisions, show we are at

serious risk of already being behind the

curve." Her words, not mine. Serious

risks of being behind the curve. We need

to act proactively.

The labor market dynamics are

decreasing. There are increasing signs

of labor market fragility

and tariffs aren't really showing a lot

of inflation yet. We're just a little

bit a me a wee bit above inflation

target. Get over it and let's get rates

down again. Waller is calling for 150

basis points of cuts. He wants the Fed

share job. Bowman is calling for we're

behind the curve. We need to get ahead.

And my is calling for 250 basis points

of cuts. So, well, well, getting us to

250 basis points. So, I guess that'd be

more like 150 basis points of cuts,

which is only about a quarter more than

Waller puts us at. Anyway, these are the

three people circulating to get us down

in rates, and

all three of them want the Fed share

job. Anyway, Bowman then goes on to say,

"The economy may be experiencing an

extended period of a productivity surge

from recent tech advances, aka

artificial intelligence." He says she

expects inflation to return to 2% after

a onetime adjustment from tariffs. She

says the shift is appropriate uh for

forecasters to widely expect inflation

to significantly decline next year. Wow.

she is just basically talking straight

into Trump's playbook here. The economy

uh may be inflexible and we have to be

careful that if we look at

backward-looking data, we actually end

up guaranteeing that we remain behind

the curve and so we should stop

overweing the backward-looking data

points and move to a proactive

forward-looking approach. We should also

during good times think about having the

smallest balance sheet possible so that

way when there is more market stress we

can respond to that market during

emergency situations basically with

money printing. So, she's kind of like

honestly a little bit of a bearish. It's

kind of like part dovish, part bearish,

right? Because on one hand, you've got

her like, "Hey, we're going to run the

money printer if there's a crisis." And

hey, we're behind the curve. We need a

cut. Like, we got to hurry up and cut

cut. Uh and at the same time she's like

hey the labor market is well I mean

let's just use her word materially more

fragile and we are behind the curve with

decreasing labor market dynamism and

inflation's going to decline

significantly next year. So let's get

off of this and actually start like

getting these cuts going. Uh okay well

uh

this is pretty doubbish. It's helping

push rate cut expectations to three by

January 28th. A little later than

expected, but it's keeping that tenure

at about 4.18, just under that 42

resistance right now. So, still a little

bit of a challenging environment to hope

to get those rate cuts priced in sooner.

But Bowman's definitely pushing hard

here, and she could be right. She also

says that she sees slower population

growth and aging population as more

prominent factors pulling down the

neutral rate. Basically saying that we

might actually have to cut lower than we

think because when we have an older

population uh and uh slower population

growth, we end up being in more of like

a Japan kind of situation where you have

slow growth outside of AI and we'll

probably end up having to have lower

rates than ever before. Now, that's been

a projection that I made back in 2022.

In 2022, I said that by 2032 rates will

be lower than ever before.

That's why, and by that I mean like, you

know, under 2.5% 30-year mortgages. A

lot of people hear that right now like

that, you're out of your mind, dude. The

30-year is at like 6% right now. There's

no way it's going to happen. I'm

extremely confident of it. Not only am I

extremely confident of it, but I'm

putting my money where my mouth is

because you know in in our membership,

we're doing 10 stocks to buy over the

next 10 years with this understanding

uh you know already built in this

expectation uh of rates going in that

direction over the long term. And so

she's actually reiterating that

suggesting that we're going to end up

pulling down the neutral rate. the

neutral rate if it was 2 and a.5% before

where we have to be under that to you

know stimulate the neutral rate might

only be you know 2% or 1 and a.5%.

He also suggests that emergency lending

facilities should be limited to one-time

use uh you know situations. So emergency

cases basically uh in other words like

don't print money all the time. That's

basically a slam on uh B I mean kind of

a slam on BMI on QE infinity like

constant quantitive easing and uh that

kind of rings to exactly what the

Trumpian you know administration wants

to hear. You don't want to hear somebody

who's like, "Oh yeah, we're going to run

up the nation's debt by printing all

this money and having it reflected in

Treasury bonds and treasury accounts."

Uh, but we are going to advocate for

lower rates. So, she's kind of talking

out of both sides going, "Yeah, yeah,

yeah. In good times, we need to get

rates down. By the way, we're behind the

curve. We need to get rates down now.

Um, or sorry, in in good times, we need

to get the balance sheet down." Right?

That talks up to Trump. But right now,

we need to focus on how the labor market

is decaying. the neutral rate is

probably lower. We probably need to get

rates down way lower than we've ever

thought before.

Well, sort of aligns with Kevin's

10-year vision uh that we launched in

2022. Mind you, I I like this should not

surprise you, okay? Like, if it

surprises you that Kevin's talking about

rates being lower than ever before in

2032 and how he made this prediction in

2022, it's a 10-year prediction, right?

So, it's not like I'm patting myself on

the back, yeah, I was right. I'm trying

to say like that could still play out.

It's so unpopular to say that today and

I really think it's going to play out.

Like everything's lining up for that to

play out. It's actually exactly why I

created House Hack the same day I'm

here. See, I figured it would take me a

good six to eight years, worst case,

give me 10 years to build Houseack into,

you know, what I think could be a

multi-billion dollar enterprise,

especially, you know, once our AI

launches in Q4. I mean, that could

rocket us to multi-billion, very very

rapidly. No guarantees. Obviously, I'm

I'm biased as the CEO. I'm really

excited about our AI product, but we

haven't launched the beta yet. That

comes in Q4. So, we're really excited

about that. But even just from a housing

point of view, want as much housing as

possible where we build housing supply,

provide housing supply for people and

and we own and control it because if we

do have lower rates in 2032, the And I'm

telling you this now as a heads up so

you could be like start thinking about

that yourself too. I think when rates

get lower than they've ever been before,

the people who are going to be the most

well off are the people who own the most

assets,

real estate being a big one of those.

Yeah, I mean stocks obviously to some

part as well. Uh but this is an

interesting speech from Bowman. Now

Bloomberg actually didn't include a like

but a fraction of the detail that I just

read for read to you because I read it

from her speech. Uh and so they talk

about maintaining the smallest balance

sheet. They talk about her being a

candidate. They talk about maybe we sell

mortgage back securities. That's more

like to get the balance sheet down. But

right now she's a dove. So you've got

Bowman, Waller, and um uh and Myron who

are huge doves. And so one of them, you

know, could be going for Feder. I don't

think Kevin Walsh is the best choice. Uh

and I think Hasset is a wet blanket. I

think you've got three great people here

on the board that are all in alignment

with we got to get rates down to make

sure that we we stop this slowdown in

employment. We need employment to start

rising again. Like this talk about

justifying these weak unemployment

numbers because of immigration. We're

below break even. I mean Powell

reiterated said that at the presser the

FOMC presser and he reiterated it

afterwards.

So it's a big red flag. The labor market

is in the pooper dupers and we got to

get it going again. The best way to do

it, cut, baby, cut. Stop the backwards

data dependence and start getting some

food

>> data dependent.

And then we can all be excited about

really big

>> big pee pe.

>> Who doesn't love that?

That's my thing.

Uh anyway. Okay, cool. So that gives us

a little bit of a heads up on the Fed

>> knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.