We're on the Brink of Default | Stimulus & Debt Ceiling Update

everyone meet kevin here so the

government's about to default on its

debt we've got to pass a new budget by

september 30th or kick the can down the

road by then otherwise treasury

department and janet yellen are going to

have a heart attack which hopefully they

have life insurance which you can also

get in as little as five minutes by

going to medkevin.com life but most

importantly where the heck are we in

negotiations about this infrastructure

package and the debt limit and then

there's also talk about potentially

hurricane and disaster relief and money

for afghan refugees

where the heck are we what is going on

well folks it is so complicated the

easiest thing to do is just throw it on

a flow chart because who doesn't like

good flow all right folks let's get into

good flow option number one

all right this is where we start option

number one for congress so option number

one for congress is passing a bipartisan

continuing resolution and legislation to

provide funding

for disasters

but also provide funding for afghan

refugees

and then at the same time kick the can

down the road on the budget deficit

which nancy pelosi is trying to kick the

can down the road to december of 2022.

that's right i didn't get that wrong i

had to double check it too not 2021

like december of this year but 2022

is what she's trying to kick the can

down the road to now it's possible that

this is just an attempt at clever

negotiating so that way republicans are

like what how could you ask for it for a

year and three months

how about we just agree on december of

2021 and then we'll agree to it i i kind

of think that's the kind of negotiation

that's going on here because it's kind

of weird to just do a temporary stop gap

bill to

have no debt limit until 2022 but that

is what nancy pelosi is arguing for

right now she actually says that it's

republicans fault that we are out of

money and that we need to eliminate the

debt ceiling

at least until december of next year

because republicans passed an expensive

covert relief bill under donald trump at

the end of last year the 600 stimulus

package they didn't mention anything

about the 1400 stimulus package that was

passed in february of this year but

nancy pelosi did talk about that 600

package

anyway so how would this look well this

bill or group of bills would be a slam

dunk in the house the house of

representatives can afford to lose three

representatives in opposition but i

expect that they'll have plenty of

people to get this done in fact i would

not be surprised to see republicans join

in

on this

continuing resolution to extend the uh

the budget deficit ceiling uh through

potentially the end of next year because

at the same time there's also going to

be a vote uh or potentially even tied to

this on disaster relief for victims of

hurricanes disaster relief for areas

affected by flooding and hurricanes

and money for afghan refugees so it's

probably going to be a slam dunk in the

house where it becomes a problem is when

this legislative text goes over to the

senate in order for this to pass in the

senate you need 60 votes to do what's

known as invoking cloture

so cloture closes the debate

on this particular package or sets a set

of bills

and once the debate has been closed

then

you can pass these bills with just 51

votes

problem is republicans are very unlikely

to give that 60 votes uh because

republic we would have to have 10

republicans in the senate to join in on

voting for essentially removing the debt

ceiling until the end of 2022

which seems highly unlikely and we'll

talk about what some republicans have

said in just a moment but the argument

here is hey nancy pelosi saying let's

slam dunk these bills

then send it to the senate then publicly

shame the senate by saying look

you all could help us prevent the

government from defaulting you all could

provide money for afghans who need it

and refugees and you all could provide

disaster relief money

but you're saying no and so nancy pelosi

is going to try to politically shame

republicans into at the very least

voting for cloture

so that way they could say they just

voted to end debate

but then not have them vote on the

actual bill because you only need 51

votes for the actual bill democrats pass

it along party line and boom

this is done that's option number one

biden supports this path and pelosi and

schumer

want want to go down this path they've

announced this i've written some notes

here mitch mcconnell has responded to

this saying look he is not going to

provide any support in the form of

invoking cloture voting for that 60

votes or contributing to that 60 votes

to

end the debate and actually pass this

legislation mcconnell says look we don't

have a divided government democrats can

do all of this on their own and really

what he's doing here is he's trying to

force the democrats hands to say look

we're not going to support you we won't

vote to end debate you could just go

ahead and use budget reconciliation

to pass this

legislative text and respond to the debt

ceiling you don't need us

well reconciliation is the second option

but it's not the preferred option by

democrats see with reconciliation you

only need 51 votes you don't have to

invoke cloture you can bypass invoking

cloture but it burns the democrats

opportunity to use the budget

reconciliation plan again which they

want to use the budget reconciliation

plan on the 3.5 trillion dollar

infrastructure plan now maybe they can

combine money for afghan refugees money

for disaster relief money for uh

infrastructure and the debt limit all

into that same 3.5 trillion dollar bill

pass that through budget reconciliation

but they'd have to go super duper fast

at getting that three and a half

trillion dollar bill done and negotiated

because it's not yet we're still not

sure are we going to see the salt tax

deduction are we going to see

changes to people's retirement accounts

who are we going to tax exactly and by

how much are we going to tax them

we don't have a solid solution yet

because it's all still in flux and again

democrats do not want to burn their

opportunity to use budget reconciliation

just on expanding the debt limit because

they want to make sure they have that

tool on the tool belt so to speak for

their three and a half trillion dollar

plan

so the other thing is budget

reconciliation is not ideal for the

scenario because budget reconciliation

would require you pick an actual number

in terms of we're going to raise the

debt limit to

24 trillion or whatever you'd have to

pick some kind of number which is very

likely to be politically unpopular as

opposed to what the democrats are trying

to do right now which is just say let's

just completely get rid of the limit

until december of 2022 which is

obviously creating heart palpitations

with a lot of republicans the third

option which has been cheered by

progressives like aoc or bernie sanders

would be overriding the parliamentarian

or basically changing the rules like

editing the filibuster or ending the

filibuster rather editing the rules to

end the filibuster is what i mean to say

uh or potentially even firing the

parliamentarian to change the way they

can get these plans done and basically

loophole in to get their three and a

half trillion dollar package done to get

their immigration reform done which the

parliamentarian blocked maybe even to

get minimum wage done which the

parliamentarian also blocked that 15

minimum wage and democrats could

potentially make large changes here but

these changes would then be an opportune

solution for republicans to reverse all

of these changes if they had power or

got power in 2022

so in my opinion this is something

that's popular to say for somebody like

aoc i think it's very unlikely to happen

though because it doesn't play the long

game it just plays the short i'm gonna

say something dramatic to show how

important my priorities are but not

really actually get anything done so i

don't think changing the rules or ending

the filibuster i don't think any of that

is actually going to work i don't expect

the minimum wage to show up on this i

don't expect the immigration reform to

show up in this

where democrats right now do say that

they have other ideas and options but

really we're probably just not going to

see the minimum wage probably not going

to see immigration reform come up in

this in my opinion the most likely

option

is that we get some form of a

number one that is we pass that bill in

the house it ends up getting held up in

the senate and we end up having a really

sort of tense negotiation in the senate

until finally 10 republicans get

pressured to invoke cloture and the

debate and then let democrats

unilaterally pass this bill then it

opens the door wide open for democrats

to use budget reconciliation on the

three and a half trillion dollar bill

see republicans in this scenario would

actually be handing democrats the 300

the 3.5 trillion dollar stimulus package

basically republicans best chance to

kill the three and a half trillion

dollar package is literally to hold it

up right now by taking the country and

leveraging the country and threatening

the country's default which has never

happened before like a political hot

potato throwing it at janet yellen and

joe biden and saying go ahead default on

the country's obligations but we're not

going to support this three and a half

trillion dollar package at all

through any means now

in terms of quotes and some expectations

here mitt romney who usually sides with

bipartisans and centrists says he's

absolutely no to raising the debt limit

and he's absolutely a no

to supporting the invoking of cloture so

he won't vote for cloture or the bill

itself

on the flip side you have republican

senator john kennedy who says he will

reluctantly vote for the continuing

resolution the stopgap funding measure

and that also

suspends the debt limit and that's

because he wants to get that disaster

relief funding for louisiana he believes

that the disaster aid is critical for

his district but he also says he does

not think that a full 10 republicans are

actually going to vote for this unless

all of a sudden there are 10 republicans

like him he says quote

i'll probably vote for the continuing

resolution and he then goes on to say

there's no way it'll get 10 gop votes

though mcconnell is not bluffing

so this is kind of interesting it'll be

one of those head counts again where we

look around and go okay are we going to

get those 10 votes i don't know if we'll

get the 10 votes on the actual bill

doubt that but on potentially invoking

cloture yeah could definitely happen now

we do also have a timing issue with all

of this see take a look at this i'll

throw this up on screen again here so

aoc says she will not vote for the one

trillion dollar infrastructure package

the hard infrastructure package unless

we also vote on the three and a half

trillion dollar package well right now

the vote for the one trillion dollar

package is set for 9.27 we also got to

get a vote done before 9 30 on the

budget deficit the continuing resolution

the budget or the um aid for afghans the

aid for disaster relief right that would

all be included in the continuing

resolution the cr before 9 30. and then

at some point we got to get that three

and a half trillion dollar bill voted on

but aoc is saying she's not going to

vote for step number one right here

unless this package is done but that

package is nowhere near dumb then you

have kirsten cinema who says she will

not vote as a democrat on the three and

a half trillion dollar bill

unless

we also honor voting on the one trillion

dollar bill on september 27th so you

literally have folks here on opposite

ends complaining for their own demands

and so this is why right now there's so

much uncertainty because we just don't

have the text for the three and a half

trillion dollar bill yet the negotiation

is not done for that yet we don't have a

clear path in terms of how this

continuing resolution is going to get

done this package for 927 the one

trillion dollar package that's already

done that's already been passed by the

senate and it just needs to get rubber

stamped by the house but nancy pelosi is

holding that hostage because she wants

to vote on that bill at the same time as

the three and a half trillion dollar

package and wants to get the continuing

resolution done to suspend the debt

ceiling until the end of next year so

this gives you a lot of catch up

background what's the big bottom line

the big bottom line is as nancy pelosi

says the next 48 hours are going to be

absolutely critical in these

negotiations in the next 48 hours we

will know if we're going to be able to

get a continuing resolution scheduled

for debate and a vote again we expect it

to pass the house we expect to have big

issues in the senate in the meantime

democrats will go on their stomping

ground tour probably over the weekend

complaining about how reckless

republicans are for not voting to

support the suspension of the debt

ceiling so that the government can keep

paying its debts then you're going to

have people like janet yellen coming out

janet yellen's gonna come out and say

things like

hey well if we let the debt ceiling

expire it'll be the first time that

we've ever let the debt ceiling expire

50 million seniors could stop receiving

checks millions who rely on the child

tax credit could stop getting it the

government would default which we've

never had before that could lead to a

spike in interest rates which could

cause stocks to drop and which could

cause turmoil in the markets and there's

no valid reason to do this that by the

way those were little snippets from an

op-ed that she did in the wall street

journal so you could really see what's

happening here the most likely path okay

this now i'm going to draw it i've given

you all the options i'm just going to

draw out the most

likely path right here okay most likely

is we get the continuing resolution past

in house

and i'm gonna write up here forecast so

nobody is confused

and thinking that this is actually done

so the forecast here is a continuing

resolution passed in the house and i

would imagine this would get passed

somewhere by 9 24 which is the day the

coupon code for my programs down below

expires 40 off price is going to go up

big after that

then i expect this to have like a media

circus over the weekend

and then probably by the 30th

i

really would expect

that the senate will probably have been

bullied into invoking cloture and then

passing this along party lines

i do also think that ultimately the

house will end up voting to pass the one

trillion dollar package on the 27th

aoc can afford to or not aoc nancy

pelosi could afford to lose three

representatives to get that

infrastructure package done uh maybe

that'll be aoc and and one or two other

people whatever

but i do think that infrastructure

package will probably get passed on time

uh and and if this happens uh

the way i picture it here

the big specific portion being here the

senate actually allowing this continuing

resolution to go through if this happens

it's pretty much going to guarantee that

democrats are going to get that three

and a half trillion dollar package done

because then they wouldn't have had to

use their budget reconciliation to keep

the government funded and that three and

a half trillion dollar package will get

past the long party lines through budget

reconciliation so really if republicans

want to kill this three and a half

trillion dollar package right here they

need to stop this the the democrats in

the senate with this continuing

resolution and stop gap measure because

if they stop the democrats here

democrats will probably be forced to use

the budget reconciliation on extending

the debt which means they would not be

able to get a budget reconciliation on

that three and a half trillion dollar

bill and it would probably put that

three and a half trillion dollar bill to

rest it would probably be dead so really

this comes down to will ten republicans

say okay

over here

and allow this continuing resolution and

lifting of the debt ceiling to go

through mitch mcconnell says no but

nancy pelosi and chuck schumer they

think they can get 10 people to come

along you already have one person john

kennedy saying i'm on board to saying

okay because i want that disaster relief

well that is basically going to open up

the door that 3.5 trillion especially if

you get 10 republicans to do it so that

gives you an outlook here

this week is going to be very very busy

with updates on this so anyway thank you

so very much for watching this if you

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next one thanks again bye

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