ah f*$k

boy oh boy moody's says the housing

correction will now reach quote coast to

coast and says that areas specifically

that should be worried are the southeast

and mountain west regions which could

really expect the biggest swing backs

including locations like phoenix tucson

arizona the carolinas northeast florida

and boise boise of which they call the

quote most overvalued market in the

country but it's no surprise folks that

when interest rates skyrockets sapping

about 40 percent of buyers purchasing

power of evaluations are already

substantially higher than they have been

in the prior few years thanks to the

pandemic and stimulus infused craziness

that we've seen in the market it's no

surprise that we're starting to see some

forms of cracks just a few days ago we

talked about lennar's earnings report

and how when lennar reported earnings

they told us about three categories of

significant market degradation happening

in the real estate market but we finally

have a new update from the redfin data

center so the last update we had from

the redfin data center was june 12th and

it was price drops for all markets

within the united states and i've been

waiting for this new update that just

came out because if we see a spike in

price drops and then we see a flattening

or an inflection point down it means

okay maybe we just had a temporary like

quick adjustment with price drops

interest rates did their damage and now

we're done with price drops right

well what inspired me to look at the

redfin data center was i was just in a

course member live stream with the

course members and one of the course

members asked hey kevin you know i've

got a million dollar property paid about

450 000 for it back in 16 and it's in

arizona and uh we're you know we're

trying to sell it it's been on the

market for two weeks we just did a forty

thousand dollar price reduction and uh i

looked at where they were and i started

getting a little nervous because there

were a lot of properties for sale and

the sales that had been occurring were

probably escrows from april so it didn't

look like we were necessarily seeing a

big ramp of recent sales and a lot of

active competition and almost all of the

active competition was cutting their

prices and this is where i said hey you

might be in a place where you let the

market make the decision for you go

crazy drop the price 90 000 bucks go to

849 try to get multiple offers that way

at least you can get out with multiple

offers and hopefully you still multiple

offer up to like 900 910 920 or whatever

which is kind of close to what you're

listed for now right but now after i

heard about this story and that strategy

by the way is a strategy that i've

personally undertaken because i like to

have a low day on the market a factor

this is something we talk about in the

real estate agents course that i have as

well because the first question every

buyer asks you is how many days has this

property had been in the market right

but anyway

so this inspired me to look at the

redfin data center and see okay like

what's the latest data are price drops

inflecting down are they flattening

what's happening on national basis right

so it got me really excited do keep in

mind that course coupon code does expire

tonight and the prices go up again they

go up about every three weeks you always

lock in the cheapest pricing when you

join now uh that is pricing will never

go down in the future it just goes up as

we add more value okay take a look at

this so

june 12th is where the little dot here

is this is for all metros in the united

states on average right look at where it

went it didn't flatten it didn't go down

no folks

boom it went up again let me show you

that here this is where the dot is the

top one is a percentage of listings with

active price drops you can see that

percentage popping moving very quickly

here and at the bottom you see that

year-over-year change and if we kind of

move from where that dot is all the way

to the tippy top we can see that we've

now moved between 612 and 619 just a

week later we've moved a substantial

chunk to the upside here i really think

that in about three months time rather

than seeing six percent of homes with

active uh price drops compared to two

percent we've already tripled the number

of homes with price drops right uh and

this is across every market in the

united states rather than seeing it

around six percent will probably be

around 20 to 30 percent like this this

line will be going off the charts in my

opinion cool thing about the redfin data

center remember this as well is you

could go in here and you could type in

any market that you want you want to

type in seattle you can see the same

thing happening here what about los

angeles los angeles was one of the last

places to show it but look you can see

it here now as well you go to austin

texas an area where we're starting to

see inventory pile up as well look at

this we're almost at what are we at nine

percent now 9.3

of listings have active price drops out

in austin right now that's above average

right you go to san diego let's try

tampa after that san diego now almost at

eight percent and uh tampa thereafter

then we got to talk about canada too

which is just crazy oh whoa look at that

tampa is over 10 10.8 percent so you see

that very clear inflection point folks

changes are happening in the real estate

market you better get yourself prepared

for these changes in the real estate

market and if there's any example of

potentially what's to come it might be

what's happening in canada now canada

kind of shrugged off the great financial

crisis they their home values have

tripled since 2020. in the united states

our home values have really only gone up

about 60 percent since uh since 2020 we

had that great financial crisis reset

well so far home prices in toronto major

capital city obviously in in canada uh

for the the ontario region down about

three months in a row

the median price for a home is now 10

times the median household income this

is the highest ratio we've seen in

canada since 1980

and we are expecting that now the median

mortgage takes 75 percent of your

household income to afford and we're

starting to see what they're calling a

transition the economists refer to this

as a transition from housing fomo to

that is fear of missing out to

fear of getting screwed and so what

we're seeing is an increase in price

drops we're seeing actual closings down

we're seeing cancellations up

and

we're seeing fewer speculators now get

into

the housing market as they see

uncertainty in the market ahead which

means less competition for those homes

that do come available now economists

the economists sites so that oxford is

predicting a 25 decline in the next two

years for real estate 25 that's a pretty

substantial correction in canada now

we're not too sure if the united states

is going to follow in these footsteps

but boy oh boy that's a big warning shot

coming from our neighbors in the north

here in canada now keep in mind we're

going to keep watching this redfin data

center sentiment uh in markets we're

going to watch that 10-year treasury

yield which did come down about 3

30 basis points actually from about 3.4

to 3.1 today which is good that actually

helps lid mortgage rates but usually

over the long term you tend to see the

federal reserve's fund rate at the fed

funds rate

and the 10-year treasuries converge so

if we get a 4 terminal fed funds rate we

might get that 4 terminal 10-year

treasury as well though jp morgan thinks

the 10-year treasury might be going down

not up we'll see that's speculative jp

morgan also doesn't think that there's

going to be a recession they only see a

35 chance of a recession over the next

12 months which is like one of the

lowest on wall street so maybe take

their info with a grain of salt but in

my opinion it's exciting because it

creates the opportunity potentially for

getting into a less competitive housing

market buying fixer-uppers getting wedge

deals learning how to buy deals below

market value and fix them up

appropriately whether it's single

families or multi-families and getting

out there making money because that's

the whole point of a recession is we

have an opportunity those of us who have

the the mind the willpower to invest and

the incomes and hopefully some savings

to support that we can take advantage of

these sorts of opportunities that get

presented to us in the marketplace and

if for whatever reason you need help

identifying those or you want a massive

discount uh program that we have with

lowe's you want access to our daily live

streams where we review real estate or

stock analysis on a daily basis in our

live streams plus all the recorded

lectures and you can watch the live

streams on replay as well we got over

5000 people that usually do regularly

watch our live streams on replay folks

check it out down below there's a coupon

code that expires tonight which just

means the price is going to be going up

and you should take advantage of that

coupon before the price goes up so you

lock in the best price thanks so much

for watching and folks we'll see in the

next one bye