Why the American Empire Will Collapse in 2026 – Prof. Jiang Xueqin

because America's not going to go in and

build up Venezuela's oil infrastructure.

That'll cost, you know, tens of billions

of dollars. It'll take many many years

before America can really bring the

Venezuela oil industry up to modern

standards. What it's what it's doing is

cutting off access to China. That's

that's entire goal, right? So, it's not

to claim the oil and it's not to benefit

US oil companies. It's just to spite

China. That's all it is.

>> Well, you know, I I I agree. Uh I think

uh well this is the main issue of well

this is why they keep referring to the

Monroe doctrine. Obviously China is the

main concern there because if you want

to control your own hemisphere seeing

China as being the main trade partner to

well all of Latin America is yes

something that has to be reversed. Uh

but how do you factor in though the

unknown variables? For example if I

would predict one thing for 2026 it will

be an economic crisis that is uh for for

for the United States. And again once

economic crisis kicks in you have it it

manifests itself in political social

instability. The rationality of states

tend to well wither away when uh when

things at home go poorly and they will

seek quick fixes and easy solutions and

um yeah like these tariff policies or

allow economic conflicts to elevate into

war. So, how do you see economic crisis

uh playing into 2026, especially the US

China rivalry?

>> Right. So, America the American economy

has some major weaknesses and you're

right that it's possible that America

faces a great financial crisis uh this

year. So, let's go over some of the

major uh problem areas of the American

economy. The first is artificial

intelligence where right now most

American GDP is driven by investment in

AI. So just building data centers which

consume a lot of water and electricity

uh in local communities. And what's a

problem is that these data centers cost

tens of billions of dollars. It's really

unclear how these data centers will make

money because right now uh how how most

people make uh how most how most people

use AI is to generate videos and to like

cheat in school right to get attached to

write their essays. It's unclear how

this will be beneficial to the economy

and if it's possible for AI to be

profitable, this will cause millions of

dollar millions of jobs to be lost. So

it seems as though the AI bubble is

about to be to burst. The problem though

is that right now the US economy doesn't

make any sense, right? So there's

Michael Barry who is very famous for

famously predicting that in 2008 the uh

supply market the CDO market would

collapse and he took out billions of

dollars in bets against uh this market.

and he made a lot of money and then he

uh made a bet against AI because he was

certain that none of fundamentals made

any sense in the AI industry and then he

suddenly announced that he was actually

leaving the industry and the reason why

is okay the a the AI industry doesn't

make any sense but guess what the

American the entire American financial

industry doesn't make any more sense

anymore meaning that right now the

American financial industry it's

controlled by a few oligarchs uh it's

it's controlled by a minority of people

who can dictate the market to their will

and so the average consu the average

investor market fundamentals no longer

apply to what's happening. So yes, in

theory, uh the AR market should could

could collapse, but because um there's

so few players within the AI market,

it's controlled by, you know, seven

companies, they can do whatever they

want. And the American government has

something called Operation Stargate, uh

Project Stargate. And so they're so

Trump has promised hundreds of billion

dollars to invest in the AI

infrastructure. So it's possible that

this bubble keeps on going on and on.

Okay. So this this this means that right

now the American financial industry

lacks the capacity to self-correct. And

so if the market collapses, it's going

to it's probably going to take the

entire economy with it. And so that's a

great problem facing the US financial

industry. That's problem number one.

Problem number two is over

financialization. And this goes back to

the silver example where when China

announced that it was going to ex limit

its exports of silver and China controls

about 60% of the silver market in the

world. The price of silver went crazy.

The reason why is that in China silver

is used for manufacturing needs. So

silver goes into uh AI, EV, uh

batteries, all that. So China really

needs silver. But in United States,

silver is used for speculation. So

silver is really a it's only paper

silver and a lot of these companies like

JP Morgan they're leverage over leverage

300 to1. So every one ounce of silver

that they have, they promised 300 on

paper and and so it's a great bubble

that's going to that's going to burst.

You know, it like what we saw in silver

was almost like a small bank run. But

it's not just silver, it's almost all

these commodities where uh these

commodities aren't used for

manufacturing needs. They're used for

speculation. And so the American

financial industry is one this this

great Ponzi scheme that's about to

explode at any point. And the third

great uh weakness of the US economy, of

course, is cryptocurrency. um where you

know Bitcoin it's all a speculation it

brings absolutely no benefit to society

so you have all these major weaknesses

in the American economy but because

first of all um you have a few oligarchs

who control the resources second of all

the American government can print as

much money as it wants there something

called quantitive easing and third of

all there's really no challenger to the

US dollar this bust sustain itself past

2026 but when it collapses the entire

society collapses so you're basically

looking at civil war

>> so civil war in America.

>> Yes.

>> So in terms of gold and silver, you you

would assume that this rally will

continue then given that it's uh the

paper gold and paper silver has been

inflated so far beyond what actually

exists in terms of the hard assets.

>> Look, the reality is that demand exceeds

supply, right? So silver goes into AI,

it goes into EVs, batteries because

silver is the best metal conductor in

the world. And there's no second copper

is is second but it's far behind silver.

So you need silver and the world cannot

produce produce enough silver and this

has been true for the past 5 years and

China and United States are having in

investing heavily into AI. So right now

there's a major uh fight for for access

to silver and this goes back again to

Venezuela where Latin America and South

America actually are the world's

greatest producers of silver. Whoever

controls Latin America and South America

basically has control over the AI

future.

>> Well, so things look a bit grim for the

United States and you have all these

bubbles you refer to. Uh once this

begins to fall apart, civil war becomes

a real possibility. Um but how do you

see this obviously affects the rivalry

they have now with China? But what do

you see on the Chinese side? Because

what what are the strategic priorities

and how do you see them pursuing them?

because uh one would assume that the

China would also become a bit more

assertive as it becomes more confident

but also as the pressure is building on

the United States to to essentially

break China and uh will restore the '90s

if you will.

>> Yeah. So you know the greatest strength

and the greatest vulnerability in United

States is the US dollar right but the

greatest strength and the greatest

weakness of China is its reliance on

exports. China is an is an

exportoriented economy and in order to

uh feed its economy it focuses on

exports and sometimes its export

strategies are counterproductive and

self-defeating. So for example it dumps

the commodities onto the world market

which hurts the trade system. Okay. So

China has also a lot of fundamental

issues. Right now the problem is that

the United States is threatening to

strangle, embargo, blockade China,

right? So um one thing that will flare

up in 2026, it's already flaring up

right now is a rivalry between China and

United and Japan. Right? So Prime

Minister Takichi has said that she

believes that Taiwan is part of Japan's

strategic interest. And what does she

mean by that? What she means by that is

that if China were to get hold of

Taiwan, Taiwan could blockade Japan from

access to the state of Malaca and

therefore um oil from the Middle East

which Japan is dependent on. And so

Japan believes that if China were to

invade Taiwan then Japan would have to

step in. Okay. So Taiwan is key. But you

know the opposite is true where if

Taiwan were to side with Japan then the

first island chain could could embargo

China can block China from trade. So I

think 2026 you'll see a lot more heated

rhetoric between China and Japan. The

reason why is both economies are

dependent on Middle East oil and whoever

can control the of Malaca can

basically strangle each other's economy.

>> Well this is the classical problem. I

mean again I think we talked before

about how it looks a bit like preWorld

War I that is that China has kind of

outgrown this uh security architecture

or economic architecture as well which

is uh well more or less designed to

contain China. So it's there's not a

diplomatic path to this it does look

like conflict becomes unavoidable but if

if we shift a bit towards Europe and

which includes then Russia you said that

the Ukraine war has been more or less

settled stabilized. I assume you're not

referring to stable front lines. them

assuming that the the the future of the

conflict has been I mean the the

determined now which seems correct but

on the other side the reason I focus on

the rationality of states is because you

see from the Europeans now increasing

rhetoric that well we can't afford a

peace if the war ends then uh Russia

would focus its resources on us and so

one after another you see this different

European leaders and media outlets

saying well it's it's yeah war may be

better than peace now so are we prepared

to end this war or how do you see is

playing out now.

>> Yeah. So I think like the future's

obvious. Uh Europe is going to

militarize against Russia even though it

is against the best interests of its

people. Its people will be very upset

with remilitarization. You're already

seeing massive protests in Germany. A

lot of this will be irrational, meaning

like Europe has absolutely no path to

victory in Ukraine. But Europe's going

to send men to their deaths in Ukraine

anyway because Europe doesn't know what

else to do, right? So, so what Europe is

really saying is that we banked on uh

Russia losing this war and then we could

impose an indemnity on Russia and that

would solve all our fiscal problems. Now

that Russia is is winning the war, we

are facing economic collapse at home and

we don't really want to face that. So,

we're going to continue the war and hope

for the best. So, there's no strategy

here. It's um suicidal. It's irrational.

But Europe is stuck where it is. Well,

whenever I ask different experts what

they see the likelihood of a direct war

between the Russia and the Europeans,

they they usually say, "Ah, very

little." Because the Europeans don't

have the troops. It would be suicidal.

But this assumes that all wars are

calculated and deliberate because I

think a war, an accidental war, a war by

miscalculation would be rooted in this

assumption of escalation control. That

is, you know, the Europeans can't afford

to see Russia lose now win. though we'll

we'll we'll send a little bit more extra

long range missiles. We try to target

the political leadership. Let's blow up

some Russian tankers. So we escalate. At

the same time as pressure is mounting on

Moscow to stop allowing the Europeans to

step over all red lines. So why should

the Russians accept the Europeans

engaging in direct attacks killing

Russians? So they will then retaliate

and I don't think the Europeans want

this but want a direct war. They would

just like to kill Russians through

Ukraine and then you know claim that

their hands are clean. But I don't think

this this is coming to an end. I think

from what I hear coming out of Moscow,

this is uh we're reaching the end of the

line and especially the Germans should

be hit hard if they continue along this

path. But if you open any Norwe sorry

European or German newspaper, they don't

seem to realize this at all. If they

recognize possibility of war, it's

because Russia will want to restore the

Soviet Union or you know something March

on Paris, something along those lines.

Do you think though that this is a real

prospect?

>> Look, I think that the leadership of

Europe, the European elite, they live in

their own reality. So, you know, like

YouTube and social media, there are

different bubbles. And I think like the

uh European elite they literally believe

that Russia will collapse tomorrow and

we just wait another day then uh the

Russian economy will collapse the people

of Russia will will revolt and Putin

will be overthrown and then Russia will

sue for for for peace. If you just like

watch their media they repeat this over

and over and it becomes a

self-reinforcing bubble. The EU is just

is this brawling um self-reinforcing

bureaucracy and they're not capable

capable of imagining defeat. They're not

capable of imagining different

possibilities. They're they're certain

they're absolutely certain that if they

just wait out one more day then the war

will be over and they would have won.

And you know if you talk about

irrationality go to World War I and like

for those four or five years where these

millions of people were dying for for no

reason. And the reason why was these

leaders just could not accept the

possibility that they had made a

mistake. Okay, I mean it's it's I I I

understand this is all silly. Like why

would you sacrifice men mills of men

because you can't afford to make a

mistake. They can't afford to admit that

hey maybe sending Boris Johnson to

sabotage peace talks between KF and

Moscow was wrong. Maybe blowing that

Northstream pipeline was wrong. Maybe

antagonizing Russia these 20 years by

expanding NATO to its borders was wrong.

It's these people absolutely refuse to

admit they're wrong and they're willing

to sacrifice their own nations uh to

avoid admitting you know being being

wrong.

>> Yeah. Even now that the loss uh NATO

losing Ukraine is starting to become

obvious the the new goal appears to be

well let's lose slower let's keep the

Ukraine is a little bit longer in the

fight even though it will be a

humanitarian disaster for Ukraine and

also strategic disaster for Europe

because this is not good for them. But

how how do you see this playing out in

the European security architecture?

Because again, the EU and NATO are the

two main pillars of how Europe has been

structured in the postcold war era. They

were supposed to, you know, be the

hedgemonic or order of Europe. Also,

what what US unipolarity was supposed to

rest on, especially NATO. Did you see

them being able to survive? Well, 2026

might hold on, but how do you see this

uh what would you expect from 2026? uh

uh complete collapse isn't necessarily

in the cards, but uh it it it seems to

be deteriorating fast. I mean, as we

speak, Trump is laying claim to

Greenland. So, and uh the Danish prime

minister trying to refer to article 5,

but I'm not sure if America would come

to the defense of Greenland if America

goes after Greenland. I mean, this is

kind of absurd stuff.

>> Um look, the reality is that Trump hates

Europe. He's hated Europe ever since

2016 when Europe was when Europe

basically insulted him during his first

presidency. Europe thought he was a

joke. He was a charlatan and Europe

inspired Obama to refer him in 2020. So

Trump hates Europe and you can and you

can tell because you know what was the

first thing that happened after Trump

won election? He sent JD Vans to Europe

to scold Europe for failing Western

Russian civilization, right? right? For

letting in too many for letting in too

many immigrants, for embracing woke

ideology, for betraying Christian

values. And so you're Trump would be

more than happy to see the entire NATO

system collapse. And you can argue that

like like you know, Trump is forcing

NATO to collapse because Trump is

forcing NATO to fight a war. It could

possibly not win against Russia. So I

think what's going to happen is that uh

NATO will sleepwalk into disaster into

Ukraine. And the reason why is that it's

just this lumbering bureaucracy that can

that cannot possibly imagine its own

demise. And these are just bureaucrats

who just want to collect their own

paycheck and who are looking for their

own pension. So they don't really care

what happens. They'll just do what

they're told and this war will be

settled in Odessa. I think that NATO

will collapse in Odessa because NATO

will commit to defending Odessa. Russia

will encircle it blockaded and NATO will

not be able to hold on. NATO will force

uh Europeans to be conscripted into the

army to die in Odessa. They will refuse

and you will have civil war throughout

Europe. But this is this is like a 5 to

10 year time frame. It's going to happen

this year. It it be it's another 5 to 10

years but it's a slow death for Europe.

>> So Odessa would be the end of the

Ukraine war then.

>> Yes.

>> Yeah. No. Well, that makes sense. The

Russians have set their eyes on Odessa

as the as this is to a large extent

about the Black Sea and of course this

is where NATO attacks Russia from

primarily from Odessa and uh I think the

British and French would never accept

giving up Odessa. This is I think the

key prize in in this war. So you're

probably spot on there. How about the

Europe's goal of strategic autonomy?

This was we heard for many years uh

strategic autonomy, European

sovereignty. These were the slogans of

the EU. It's it's very stark contrast

the subservience to a US which hates

Europe. Uh but how do you see the

internal cohesion holding in in place

because I think Europe you know it

succeeded when it was able to live

deliver economic benefits to its member

state as a collective bargaining power.

I don't see that anymore. Yeah. So after

1945 Europe was forced to adopt the

ideas of the open society. Right. This

is Carl Harper who argued that World War

II was caused by fascism by this

excessive embrace of nationalism. So to

prevent another great war we uh

societies have become much more open,

multicultural, tolerant and that was a

strategy for the EU bureaucracy for the

past few decades. That's why uh they've

let in so many of the immigrants that's

why they that's why they've embraced

woke ideology and it's basically made

the societies you know uh much more uh

polarized. So you have the real possible

civil war in Britain in France because

they let in all these immigrants and uh

the natives see these immigrants as a

threat to their cultural identity. And

so you know wars are fought because

people want to fight them to protect the

ones they love and they they they fight

them for their homeland. But right now

if you go to Britain and you ask them

like what does Britain mean to you? I

think British people would be hard to

answer you if you you know um these

immigrants in Britain if you interview

them and say hey are you willing to go

fight a war in Ukraine to defend Britain

and they'll say hell hell no. Um and

they are like why would I uh leave this

land to go die in Ukraine so that these

immigrants can take it over after I'm

dead. So the idea of you know getting

these Europeans to go fight anywhere is

just ridiculous now. And yeah, I mean

you will conscript quite a few because

these European nations have become

authoritarian, but it's going to destroy

the societies. So Europe is no longer

capable of fighting a full scale

conflict with Russia.

>> Sometimes I get a feeling of some

similarities with the Soviets after the

Bolevik revolution when they when when

they were fighting because the Russians

were deeply religious. So when you when

they were essentially yeah going to

fight under a Bolevik or a Soviet flag

the the problem then was uh what exactly

are they fighting for? So they kind of

had to allow the the church to come to

come back in because this is why what

people fought for and I get the same

impression now that the Europeans are

being told that we have to go and you

know die for them to fight Russia. And

if you ask why they will refer to you

know the nation and you know the typical

things people would die for. But uh but

they spent the past uh years if not

decades to express their you know

contempt for our faith, our traditions,

our culture and now we're supposed to

die for it. I mean it's what what are we

dying for? It doesn't really make any

sense. I mean this is why people

nationalism is people kill for it but

they're also willing to die for it. I

think I think the smearing of

nationalism even though it was

introduced in the French Revolution with

democratization I think it's been

another flaw. But how how does this play

into the to the United States? Because

the Europeans were a key partner of the

US in the past in order to well world

and during cold war and the hegemonic

era. But uh what do you see the

Americans doing now? If they drifting

further away from the Europeans uh will

they abandon block politics or will they

simply demand subservience? How how is

the how will the US build this power

moving forward? Because this is what

perplexes many European politicians.

every time America slams them or

threatens the Greenland, they they all

go on Twitter going, "Well, you know, we

we're good allies. You you need us to be

great." But, uh, it doesn't appear that

this sentiment is shared by Washington.

So, how how what what will the US build

its power on?

>> Look, the United States is now

transactional. It's an empire and it's

going to exploit its vassels. And if

you're going to exploit its vassels,

it'll just abandon them. So, the United

States right now, it's uncertain what it

can derive from Europe, right? Europe is

has an agent population. It is not

willing to fight wars. It does not have

that many able-bodied men. It has very

few resources. So, United States doesn't

really know what it can do with Europe.

And in fact, United States believe that

Europe has been um stealing and

exploiting the United States for the

past few decades. It's the uh American

security infrastructure that has

protected Europe, that has allowed

Europe to create its welfare state, that

has allowed uh Europe to it basically um

the Americans think that the Europeans

are just lazy and decadent and corrupt.

And so the United States is preparing to

throw Europe like overboard, right? Just

abandon Europe to Russia and forget

about it. And so uh Europe, uh so United

States national security strategy, it's

very clear it's going to use the Western

Hemisphere to project its power

overseas. So the example goes out to

China where listen in the future China

if you want resources don't think about

the Middle East because it's on fire

right uh the entire place is at war.

Don't think about Europe because Europe

is dead. Um don't think about Africa

because we're going to challenge you

there as well. You're going to have to

come and buy resources from from the

Western Hemisphere and therefore you're

you're going to have have to buy from

us. Um so I think that's the national

security strategy going forward. uh the

United States is intent on maintaining

its hijgemony for the for the US dollar

and so it needs to makes China

subordinate to the US dollar dependent

on the US dollar.

>> Yeah. This idea that they will in in

this new imperial phase of the United

States that they will either exploit or

abandon. I don't think the Europeans

appreciate this because I heard the same

from Americans as well like we we were

trying to decide whether or not we

should make it an exclusive Syrian

influence for the United States or just

extract the wealth. But if it's option

between exploiting or abandoning, the

Europeans can't envision a future

without the leadership of the US. So

they're allowing, I think, the US to

extract wealth at the moment through all

this uh you try putting companies across

the Atlantic or or these trade deals

which are so horrible. Uh but they still

sign them on Trump's golf course. But of

course, this is temporary a temporary

fix. Once America extracted everything

it needs, Europe is even weaker, more

irrelevant and it will be abandoned

anyways. But uh well again there's no no

discussion in the political class what

to do. It's just the assumption of this

that Trump is a bad man and if we just

wait him out things will go back to

normal. That's literally what they're

doing. They believe that in 2028 the

Democrats will come in reverse off

Trump's policies uh as Biden did in

2020. And what the Europeans don't

realize is that this is a new reality.

We're not going back to 2020. Even if

the Democrats were to come in in 2028,

they're going to maintain Trump's

imperial policies because this is the

best interest of America. Americans

there has no benefit from helping Europe

in any way.

>> Oh, especially if it grows even more

irrelevant. I mean, uh but they don't

they don't see it in terms of national

interest and the the value of an

alliance. They they talk about

friendship and values, which is kind of

a it's

>> But I saw again where the ideology comes

in. I mean this is they they they

convinced them themselves that this is

what glues us together as opposed to

having common strategic interest. Uh but

um but for the United States though do

you see overall it uh its power

retrenching? Will they overextend or

will there just be a complete absence of

a coherent strategy?

>> So what we're seeing is acceler

acceleration of the demise of American

empire. So let's go back to Venezuela

and I'm sure you know everyone saw what

happened where you know these Chinok

helicopters carrying Delta Force special

operators flew into Caracus and killed

basically Maduro's security team Cuban

security team and then escorted him to

New York where he was uh perwalked and

it seemed as though you know a triumph

of the Romans right where they brought

in these kings who they captured and

they paraded him through the streets of

Rome and so in America everyone's

ecstatic about this everyone thinks this

is tremendous but what you don't what

what people don't recognize is that you

know the reason why Americans didn't do

this in the past is because it's stupid

to do this sort of stuff right because

um why would you insult a nation like

this so not only did the Americans go

kidnap a head of state a sovereign head

of state who represent the state itself

they also destroyed the masum of Higos

Sabas who is the spiritual hero of the

shavasmo chavasmo movement in Venezuela

who is the current uh regime in

Venezuela so Trump has it impossible now

for United States to seek an arrangement

for Venezuela. Even if there's some

negotiation that takes place, it's going

to end end up in bad faith because

Venezuelans have lost trust in United

States. But not only that, but South

America right now will rally against

United States. Trump has threatened both

Mexico and Colombia. He has his eyes set

on Cuba, uh on Nicaragua. So now the

South Americans are like, you know, we

can't we can't trust the Americans. We

need to stick together. and they're

going to resist American American power

and and then Africa, Europe, uh the

entire world is going to see America for

the bully that it is. So listen, America

had the greatest n military for the past

50 60 years. It didn't really want to

use its military because once you start

using your military, you're stuck using

the military forever, right? you're

better off using soft power through um

you you're better off using covert ops

uh u propaganda you know infiltration

and that's what America did really well

for these 50 60 years and and they could

have done the same thing in Venezuela

where you know they could have just

basically bribed Maduro bribed the elite

to seek in an economic treaty with the

United States where all oil belonged to

the United States and Venezuela would

have agreed to this and all of South

America would have been happy with this

deal but instead it chose to uh do what

it did because it wanted to project

strength and power. And so it sacrificed

strategy for optics. And this is a sign

of an empire in decline where it's no

longer capable of grand strategy, where

it's no longer capable of foresight.

It's no longer capable of restraint and

humility. It's complete hubris. We see

this all the time when empires are in uh

decline where not only does it

antagonize its enemies, but also

antagonize its own allies and exploits

its vassels. So what the United States

is doing it's suicidal it's um

short-term it's stupid and look in the

short term I say for the next two to

three years it will look great in that

you know America is able to control the

entire western he hemisphere all the

world bows to America in the long term

um you you have sold the seeds for

global discontent for a global

revolution against American power and

basically I think that the American

empire is done with.