Warning: The Great Crash To Start *Mid March*

in this video we are going to talk about

the great crash to start March 11th

through March 15th it's now law yes we

are going to respond to a YouTube video

where basically somebody spends 13

minutes telling you that because the

bank term funding program is coming to

an expiration on March 11th we're all

screwed and that's exactly why

billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg Jeff

Bezos and others are selling and people

like Warren Buffett just this week

suggesting that opportunities to

outperform were very low right now so he

continues to sit on record high levels

of cash is this possibly because the

billionaires know yes is it likely

because of the bank term funding program

no in this video we're going to describe

where the real bubble problems are and

I'm going to show you some examples some

of which you might actually even be able

to make money on as the crash does occur

which eventually it will let's talk talk

about it in this video first let's talk

about the bank term funding program yes

the bank term funding program is a bank

lending facility that comes to an end

March 11th most people don't understand

that when that program comes to an end

it does not mean all of the

164 yep $64 billion that have been lend

come due that is not true only about a

third come due within the first quarter

after the bank term funding program ends

and it really takes an entire year for

that bank term funding program money to

come due for banks one of the places

that you can in my opinion really watch

for that sort of regional stress of how

much do we actually think the end of

this program is going to affect Banks uh

is twofold number one you should look at

a a bank like New York Community Bank

who took massive write Downs allowance

for credit losses of almost half a

billion dollar because of two just two

buildings in real estate office

commercial related buildings just two

properties wrote them down half a

billion dollars that destroyed their

earnings and their potential for cash

flow so heavily uh that the stock

plummeted now in the weeks afterwards

the company said but don't worry we are

not having a bank run we're not having

outflows that's probably because frankly

the US government has sort of insured

all

deposits in Infinity sure we're supposed

to be insured up to $250,000 for

depositors uh of of uh Bank uh account

cash but the reality is the FDIC

Insurance limits after the Silicon

Valley bust and the essential full-on

bailout of the banking system is

realistically way higher so you're not

really seeing banking runs exacerbate

these issues as a result I actually

don't think the next crash is a banking

driven crash that was last year's crash

so what is the crash well I'll give you

two crashes coming up and these are very

important to pay attention to but I just

want to finish the point this is the

bank term funding program notice how

draw Downs on the bank term funding

program have actually flattened out now

yes they did rise here that's because

there was a unique Arbitrage opportunity

forget the science behind this basically

you were able to borrow money from this

program for less than you were able to

lend it out for that was kooky the FED

stopped that as soon as the FED stopped

that you got one last little push here

of borrowing and then you had a drop uh

and or a flattening we should call this

I don't really call that much of a drop

it's more of a flattening this is a

problem but I don't think this $164

billion here is so systemically

problematic uh and we're not seeing

signs that there's this Rush towards

March 11th you know we're what two weeks

is away from March 11th now uh there's

not this insane Rush of people piling

into this facility going that's it last

chance to get cheap money there are

other ways for banks to get funding

whether it's from the bond market or

from from the stock market or quite

frankly it's from the fed's discount

window you don't need the bank term

funding program for everything okay so

let's put that aside for a moment let's

instead talk about the other two crashes

and they're in two totally different

markets one uh has to do with stocks and

Ai and the other has to do quite frankly

with real estate let's talk about both

of those so where am I seeing bubbles

right now well one of the largest

bubbles that I'm seeing right now is arm

look I understand the company got

phenomenal margins selling their

infrastructure code bases you know and I

know I'm going to get a bunch of tech

comments on on uh describing what arm is

it doesn't really matter uh their risk

architecture we don't have to get into

that what matters is that this is a

company that is trading for over a four

to five Peg with one entity owning over

90% of the shares of this company and

the lockup for this company is set for

March 12th the lockup expiration that

means this is a company that IPO and

after you IPO what you do is you have

companies that say Hey you know

what investors internal investors say

you know we will promise not to sell

until 180 days after a certain date well

that date is right around IPO time which

was in September so we're looking at

March 12th I believe it's highly likely

that this stock we'll see a very rapid

decline possibly leading into the lockup

and you've got multiple catalysts here I

think you've got a negative Catalyst

going into the lockup so leading up to

March 12th so I think you can see a

decline before March 12th as Traders

start pricing it in I think you could

see a further decline During the period

after the lockup if soft Bank actually

starts selling which I expect them to

especially if these valuations hold or

you've got another negative Catalyst of

March 20th which is the fed's release of

the summary of economic projections I

think all three of these are going to

put a a lid on this growth and B lead to

substantial downside I will say though

in full transparency I am short this

sucker okay so I'm kind of betting that

this one Falls however there are other

companies that I'm not short on that I

think are also stupidly valued right now

look at Wing Stop Wing Stop's been going

straight up this is trading for an over

four Peg price to earnings growth

measure which is an absolutely insane

valuation metric the same is true for

Costco the problem is the market can

remain irrational longer than you can

remain solvent and just as much as I

think arm is going to collapse I think

Wing Stop is going to collapse and my

real question is what companies are

going to go down with these companies

when they actually start crashing are we

going to see an allocation and this

might be the copium hopium idea some

people are really hopeful that when

those start crashing people will

allocate to other stocks that have

performed poorly which could be as an

example Tesla you know it's up almost 4%

today that's great but but you know it's

just him and and Han around the 200 who

cares that might be more copium to think

that there'll be a crash in some sectors

and a movement over here some people

also think that the Magnificent Six

really you know everything minus Tesla

uh will we'll sort of have a little

breather and pause and there won't be

any kind of real downside correction

we'll see but that's just one of the

places that I'm seeing real risk so I'm

not going to babble to you for 14

minutes about oh my gosh March 11th

Parker calendar for March 11th or you

know and and all of a sudden the bank

are in front of it'll probably end in my

opinion nothing will happen if anything

happens just recognize the FED will just

open up the facility again they never

said they can't reopen the

facility f is going to bail that out

again and don't get me wrong it's all

rigged yeah I I think there are problems

consider the inverted yield curve we're

now negative 44 basis points inverted it

is worsening we were talking about that

at ec.com this morning uh where we're

talking about how the inverted yield

curve is worse than where it was most of

the beginning of the year we were like

20 to 30 basis points inverted uh but

the problem is you don't have the

recession yet you look at uh uh Bank of

America's fund manager survey you've got

41% of fund managers think there won't

be a recession in the next 12 months 21%

of those who do think it'll be next

quarter and another 20% think it'll be

the next quarter thereafter so in other

words in the next 7 months you've got

about 40% fund managers who think we'll

be in a recession the problem is we've

essentially printed our way out of a

recession for now we've probably just

kick the can down the road that's

probably why we have an inverted yield

curve we might be in a recession of 25

26 think about it the AI bubble growth

slows you don't get that growth

contribution anymore the fiscal spending

goes away from a Biden Administration

throwing money at the chips act and

inflation reduction act potentially you

know over $1.3 trillion per Goldman

Sachs estimates because of loose

treasury interpretations of the rules

basically massive massive corporate

welfare and stimulus going to the

richest right it's it is rigged I like I

don't want I'm not making this video

going no that person's wrong it's not

all rigged no no no I I agree it's

rigged I just don't think the bank term

funding program is what you got to pay

attention to these valuations are you

pay attention to you pay attention to

the fact that the two-year treasury is

47 and the 10's like 46 uh or sorry um

426 so you know that's that's an

inverted yield curve that's worsening

you pay attention to the spike of

inflation we had in January which even

if that spike is transitory that's a

nasty word to use but I think January

was heavily exposed to seasonal uh

inflationary impetuses I'm not horribly

worried about that as a catalyst I am

horribly worried about the next bubble

and that is multif family real estate

now you have to be really careful in

this one okay so just type into Google

do it with me mortgage uh delinquency

multifam so Wall Street Journal mortgage

delinquency multifam this is what it

looks like you just go to the first

click right here uh and this article is

what you should be concerned about uh

the gist of it basically is that you had

.9% of multif family apartment buildings

that were delinquent sorry 4% let me

make sure I have that right 4% yeah

there it is as of January

2023

4% uh of of um uh some of these

collateralized loan obligations were

delinquent 30 days or more that was up

20x in January of this year and you're

seeing this not just at Arbor but across

the board you're seeing delinquencies

across the country in multifam real

estate specifically in the sun Bel area

explode there are uh multifamily based

companies that all they do as multi

family and sunbase and they're selling

for a fraction of potentially what

they're worth why because of oversupply

of new construction rents coming down

and Loans coming due there are a lot of

multif family home builders that

includes developers uh and owners that

have loans coming due they don't have

the benefit of the 30-year fixed trade

mortgage now does that mean housing is

going to come down single family homes

and condos maybe not because the benefit

of the lock in of 30-year mortgage but

multif family is seeing massive

opportunities mismanaged buildings and

Loans coming due create opportunities

for companies to go buy that's what

we're doing with AAC what we may have

gotten lucky with timing because we

really started buying in Q3 of last year

and uh and we see the problems worsening

uh while valuations on single family

have been stable or up which that's what

we started buying now here in the spring

we're like okay shortage of single

family has gotten worse most single

family hits April May so let's wait

again to buy in single family until

April May where's the biggest pain right

now multi family so where are real

bubbles coming in March it's not the

bank term funding program that's fugazi

that's nonsense it's probably not an

unemployment recession either at this

point I think uh you know when we look

at uh layoffs as in terms of how many

layoffs we've been having yes we had a

lot of layoffs in January but frankly

it's a fraction of what we've seen at

the end of 2022 and the beginning of

2023 probably not an unemployment

recession JP Morgan says the biggest

concerns we need to have going forward

or negative jobs reports not really

seeing that right now maybe negative

retail spending but thanks to buy now

pay later we're not really seeing that

right now an inflation Spike Beyond

January feels unlikely right now uh to

me the bubble is much more clearly uh in

particularly overvalued stocks Costco

Wing Stop arm arm I think has the

greatest likelihood of popping in March

uh followed by multi family real estate

and I think that's not so much of a

devastating 08 style crash it's more of

an opportunity reason for that is the

stability that single family gives you

uh money that would go into investing in

single starts going in multi it balances

out and so when you take advantage of

the higher cap rates you get in multi

you start getting some balancing effect

that's our opinion that's our take but

no is it the bank term funding program

look it's a great click baity video that

says yes everything's going to collapse

March 11th uh I don't think so that's

for Bank the bank term funding program I

do think it's worth noting this chart as

well which is why I pulled it up that

who's paying most of the interest today

remember most people think that high

interest rates are going to slow the

economy let's be real high interest

rates are benefiting the richest

companies that exist every single

quarter since we've started seeing uh

interest rates increase over here in

q222 interest that companies have had to

pay has collapsed CED every single

quarter from here straight down that's

because companies are cash-rich they're

the ones buying the AI chips or whatever

they're taking the high interest rates

they're earning the high interest rates

on the flip side it's smaller businesses

and people like you and me who are

paying the higher interest rates we're

suffering with those higher interest

rates so the fed's doing a really good

job at putting the the boot on the back

of the neck of the people not of the Big

Rich corporations and so those are the

places I think to look for a crashy

dooda oopsy dupsies anyway if you like

the perspective I share my Buy sell

alerts check out my uh courses over at

meet kevin.com if you want to invest in

house Haack because you're an accredit

investor go to house hack.com 2024 to

learn more about our fundraise might be

the last one we do our plans work out

this year we might not ever have to

fundraise again so it be pretty cool so

check that out house.com

201024 and uh thank you so much I'll

post more updates over at ec.com thanks

for watching goodbye why not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin PA there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

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