Tesla Stock: New Fundamental Analysis & Price Targets.

hey everyone me Kevin here we've got a

big update from Goldman Sachs on Tesla

price targets from Tesla we're going to

go test the spreadsheet and I'm going to

give you an update on what the heck

happened to my short position on Tesla

because yes last week I was short but I

closed that position right before the

market close on Thursday I'll give you

an update later in this video on what's

going on so and remember you always get

Buy sell alerts if you're a member of

the stocks and psychology of money group

everything I do with my stocks portfolio

and trading portfolio so first let's go

start with Goldman Sachs and give a

shout out to Troy teslike if you haven't

seen it yet I don't want to give away

his IP I'm not gonna do that but I am

going to shout him out he has his latest

estimates out on Twitter uh and he links

to his patreon I'm a member of his

patreon it's like five bucks a month

he's a good guy uh I've invited him on

for an interview but he's also a very

private guy so I respect that I respect

his privacy but I will say he's been

very good with estimating numbers for

Tesla deliveries and let's just say he

in the last 8 days has reduced his

estimate once again we are now down from

his last estimate another about

1.7% so the trend is down and it's a

good chunk below what analysts are

expecting I'll suggest that um it's

about 12% less than what analysts are

expecting and that depends on which

analyst expectations you use again not

trying to give it away but the point is

Troy's data not great I am also losing

my voice a little bit sorry about that

so Troy's data is not great we know that

but we've got to look at Goldman Sachs

then after we look at Goldman Sachs I

want to touch on something regarding

Tesla and Nvidia and I want to sort of

run this scenario by you I don't think

anybody's really talking about this and

I want your opinion on it I think it's a

really important thing to consider as a

Tesla investor okay

so excuse me oh my gosh it's so annoying

to be sick but take a look at this so

here they suggest that delivery

estimates in key regions uh per their

third-party sources are suggesting that

the first two months of the quarter are

up high single digits year-over year

high single digits would be let's say 7%

and in the first quarter last year we

did about 423,000 deliveries so let's

add about 78% that put us around 452 456

but they say they're down low double

digits quarter on quarter well that

would put you around 426 so you're

somewhere between 426 and

456 and last year q1 we did about

423 so let's go generous and go

456 divide that into the 423 of last

year puts us on the growth trajectory of

about

7% it's not just q1 though if we get a

second quarter in a row of 7% growth

starts creating a trend the markets

going to be a little disappointed by

that I believe I think there's a risk

factor of that now Goldman Sachs is

lowering their forecast for q1 to

435,000 they are moving their 2024

vehicle deliveries Target to

1.98 million that would represent annual

growth of roughly 1.98 divided by the

previous

99.3% so they're at about 99.3% growth

either way we're a far cry from

obviously the back in the day 50% growth

rate I've always been underwriting Tesla

at a longer run 30% growth rate so

seeing these numbers coming in in the 7

to 9% range it's not great and right now

there's no indication that we're

actually going to be able to escape 7 to

9% growth and and sort of the anchor

that is 7 to 9% growth for a period of

time that's a little bit concerning to

me in addition to the fact that year-to

dat year-over-year app downloads are

actually down year over year that's not

great so I want you to look at this here

were Peak deliveries for Tesla Q3 2023

and if you align that Peak with app

downloads we can actually see app

downloads in the US trending back down

to levels we kind of saw over here which

would be roughly q1 of last year so

maybe it's seasonal who knows that could

be

good take a screenshot of that if you'd

like that's from sensor Tower app

downloads I thought that was a very

interesting sort of point out but what

they mentioned here is we believe that

Tesla is being impacted by reduced EV

subsidies in Europe the Red Sea conflict

that's affecting shipments going into

Europe competition in China especially

with byd and slower demand overall than

had previously been expected by Goldman

Sachs analyst as a result they come to a

total projection of for 2026 2.75

million Vehicles okay well this isn't

fantastic because let's jump over here I

want you to see we're going to do some

price targeting here but first I want

you to understand this so let's say

we're at you know 1.81 million

deliveries we're going to grow that by

20% per year right let's say 20% instead

of 30 okay fine 20% per year gets us to

about 2.2 and

25 2.6 and

26 3.1 and 27

okay well what what is their pure

directory they're looking at

2.75 in let's take a look at that

2.75 uh down from 3 million in

2026 okay so let's go back make sure

we're doing this math right so this is

the 2023 number

2024 25 ah 26 sorry that would be 3.12

million in 26 so Goldman is actually

lower than that they're probably at

about 15% let's go with 15% yeah 2.75 so

they're at 15% compounded right 23 24 25

26 okay doing the math right 2.75

compounded or or to get to 2.75 you

compound a 15% growth rate that's their

target maybe Tesla will wildly beat it

and if that happens obviously we would

expect the stock to do very very well so

let's enter full screen here and go into

here let's say the average revenue per

vehicle is

$44,000 let's go with their estimate of

2.75 which I think is really low and

disappointing we're going to leave

everything else the same lease is 2%

Services 5% energy 10% FSD I'm going to

go with 2 and a. half% that'd be $3

billion a year we're not we're not even

seeing that right now but I'm just going

to leave it in there I don't want to

change too much I'm going to go with the

25% margin we'll come back and we'll

adjust that in a moment what does that

get us to at a 19% tax rate that gets us

to $643 of earnings in 2026 which had a

25 times multiple how do you get that

you multiply a 15% growth rate by 1.67

you get a price target of

$160 in

unfortunately 2 and a half years like

2.75 years right the end of 2026 so let

me drop this to 2.75 years that's about

a 9% expected return over the next 2.75

years that's not great

that's a 25% margin now if I go over

here and I move this to just uh a 20%

margin so the expense is uh uh you know

20% uh sorry the expenses are 80% rather

than 75% so we are putting in our pocket

20 cents out of every dollar as opposed

to 25 out of every dollar I'm making the

margin worse we're worsening the margin

by 5% if I worsen the margin on every

vehicle by 5% we actually go down to

about

$124 per share this is on a 2026 basis

using a PE of 25 with 15% growth so this

is a Growth Company it requires growth

so you could have all the margin you

want in the world but if you don't have

growth it's a problem now let's do a

little bit more of a generous move let's

go with the 20% growth Target so let's

go with the 3.1 we'll go 3.1 million 25%

margin and now we're going to have a 20%

growth factor so we can actually move

our PE ratio up our PE that we're going

to go with is 20 * 1.67 that puts us at

about

$242 by the end of 2026 if we can get

20% growth that means ah sorry I forgot

the present value I didn't update the

present value present value is like 173

there we go that gives you about a 133%

annual rate of return compounded now

because I forgot to change change the

present value I will quickly show you

the 15% version uh actually before we do

that let's change this to the worst case

scenario for margin oops there we go

expenses 80 puts you about 187 or a

growth of about 3% so like really good

scenarios getting back to 20% growth

which I think would require really

really low interest rates again to get

to went let's let's say we cut rates to

zero tomorrow okay tomorrow interest

rates is zero again how many how much

growth do we get at Tesla again honestly

I think probably back to

30% but we're not going to go to zero

tomorrow so let's say we go to 2 and a

half% tomorrow what do we get maybe then

we'll get our 20% growth 20 30% growth

maybe but we're not going to these low

rates anytime soon the fed's barely

interested right now in cutting at all I

think the earliest we're going to see a

cut is July and they're kind of going to

just slowly Kick the Can down the road

on us that's my opinion obviously if

your opinion is different and you think

inflation is falling more rapidly that's

fine that was my belief as well

unfortunately the last three months of

data the facts have

changed and and I think it would be

delusional to think that we're going to

get massive vehicle growth over the next

two

years I wish it were different but let's

change some numbers anyway let's let's

see what the bull case scenario would be

like okay so let's go with

2027 okay we're going to multiply this

by another

20% time 1.2

3.72

so this is a more bull case scenario and

yes I'm purposefully leaving out some of

the icing on the cake Dojo licensing

more FSD licensing I've already got FSD

Revenue in here uh $4 billion right at

95% Mar sorry at at 98% margin so I

think I'm already being very

generous uh anyway let's say they get

back to

25% uh on the uh the

margin and uh we're growing then at 20%

for 2026 now that gives us 3.75 years

that gives me a future price target of

almost $300 which what's interesting is

if you go to the Target over here on

Goldman they give you the bare case and

the bull case they think the bull case

scenario over the next two

years could be

$300 they think the bare case scenario

though could be 65 to

$85 which unfortunately is where Tesla

has some technical

Trends now I think it'd be a pretty

glorious buy if it got that low but the

question is I think people rioting out a

Tesla portfolio right now somebody who

has let's say $100,000 in Tesla you have

to say to yourself if we went down to 65

do you have the capacity to keep buying

because you're about to see

potentially a 63% draw down which means

if you had 100,000

and you go down 63% you're left with

$37,000 I mean that's like the bare

scenario there obviously the hope is

that we get that 300 number but I don't

know that we can get that the 300 number

when the facts are telling us to our

face that right now best case scenario

let's look at the best case scenario

growth again and then I want to talk to

you about this Nvidia uh idea that I

have so they think 2.75 Million by 20 26

maybe rates will actually be lower then

but uh they also give you some growth

rates over here 99.3% well that's not

good do we have anything good here let's

see q1 volumes I mean honestly even if

you

get 450 or four call it 460,000

deliveries because we're going to talk

about that price increase in a moment

let's say you get 460 divide that by 423

is it's about 88.7% growth we're nowhere

near even 15% growth we're not even

breaking 10% growth so we're less than

10% growth right now with the actual

data Troy's numbers Goldman's numbers

the street analyst numbers are coming

down now the stock is obviously up and

we're going to talk about that short

position so the Stock's up why is the

stock up was because we had a $1,000

price increase on the vehicles this

weekend and we have

FSD 12.3 I have to say I didn't like

12.1 12.2 that much 12.3

I love it it's very good it's very very

good I don't have anything bad to say

about it it just fixed some of the

nonsense of the early versions of the

tws so very good job $1,000 price

increase good now this could be one of

two things one demand is

high that's probably not

that number two it's a trick it's a

manipulation to say hey buy this quarter

because the numbers are so bad

that we will do whatever we can just

prop up the quarter one more

quarter because we got a problem we need

to pull forward some demand maybe things

will be better in the second quarter is

the Hope and so they're trying to Signal

a price bottom for Teslas get people to

rush in and buy before prices go up it's

possible I mean after all we think

there's a good chance we're going to end

up getting to doubling the prices on our

event in Vegas real estate seminar uh

I'll teach you everything I know about

real estate how house hack is buying

we'll be presenting with the whole house

hack team as well uh Innovation Finance

you name it go to meet kevin.com to

learn more so yeah there are like that

that is a strategy now I think that

works for us because we're providing

more value we're giving you more

speakers and more clarity on everything

that's being done the venue everything

so as we release more value the price

goes up

anyway in this case you're trying to

Signal a bottom I think it's mostly a

trick uh however it it can have the

third consequence of signaling a bottom

so it's not a bad strategy that combined

with FSD 12.3 led to a little bit of a

move in stock today quite a bit it was

up like 5 5 to 6% or something like that

now we'll talk about short talk about

two things here first I want to talk to

you about

Nvidia and then I want to talk to you

about short all right

so some left a comment and I I think

they're intelligent they said hey you

know Tesla's way ahead in terms of the

data they've collected for their

vehicles who else is collecting data on

vehicles and they haven't even gone

through FSD version 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11 yes yes this is true well I have a

question for you and and this is a

legitimate question especially for you

computer scientists out there

Tesla uh fsd1

1211 was coded right so is AI plus

thousands of lines of code tens of

thousands of line of code

right Tesla 12 is all neural

net so in other

words Tesla took data and trained it

within the last

year so what did Tesla do in the last

year well they bought a bunch of h100

chips from Nvidia they bought

10,000 h100 chips and then Elon Musk

started poo pooing on dojo in the last

earnings call that kind of pissed me off

because I'm like bro why are you poo

pooing on your stuff is is it really

just not that good I mean we know we got

the b100s now that we're competing with

too but it felt a little defeatist I

think Elon took a little bit of a

negative point of view but the point is

I want you to think of this what if

Tesla 12 is actually really Tesla FST

1.0 neural net okay well then what

separates a company let's call it

company Z okay what separates company Z

from getting to FSD

1.0 well 10,000 h100s right but it's not

just that it's the data

right we need uh geographical data

geographically uh diverse data uh

vehicle

diversity uh driver diversity to get an

average you know you don't want to train

based off you know a few people because

if they have bad habits those all get

trained in you want to try to take the

best of everything right

so what if there was a company company Z

that had the

data and we haven't been paying

attention to it well if they had the

data can they not also train an FSD 1.0

very

rapidly yeah they probably could which

means Tesla's lead which maybe Tesla

will end up being at you know 1

point7 by that time I don't know maybe

they'll even be at 2.0 the point is the

lead that appears to be there for Tesla

FST starts to

shrink well what's a company that has

already partnered with Volvo

Mercedes

byd already

today in automotive Drive technology

it's also a company that used to be

partnered with Tesla what company does

this and what company is openly saying

openly saying they're going to compete

with Tesla by q1 2025 in

fstd you should know by now because I

literally teased it Nvidia I wrote it

right

there I want to hear your comments on

this so this is me transparently

thinking I do think Tesla has a massive

Advantage but I do wonder is that

Advantage declining because remember

this they said that it would take a GPT

uh or or to training a GPT would take 90

days on the the h100 training a GPT

would take 90 days with 1/4 the compute

with the b00 in other words to get to

that same level of fsd1 it's going to be

even easier to train faster with the

latest chips so your ability to catch up

is

accelerating just

sucks okay and then obviously you got

the f

now I said we talk short let's talk

short I may be transparent

here so on

Thursday uh around 12:50 p.m. I closed

my

short uh I'm up about 30k on that option

in 24 hours that was cool took

tendies simple uh I thought there would

be a tactical bounce on Mon on Friday

got it we got the bounce

Friday then what happened well over the

weekend we got two sets of news onek up

and FSD 123 which I got as well and it

is good okay be transparent

here so what happened after we got that

well not only did we have bounce Friday

we had basically a rally Monday which is

great but now that

News is here we have the news

and where are we stuck we're really

stuck at a 175

resistance now is it possible that we

could break out of the

175 absolutely it's absolutely possible

however what does the market start

pricing in tomorrow the FED meeting at

least at the time of this recording

Nasdaq futures are down 24% basis points

it's probably in part because of a by

the rumor selda news on Nvidia but going

into the FED meeting I am nervous so

when I saw Tesla up 5 to 6% today I

shorted it again so I am short again but

I was not short when it went up on

Friday and I was not short when it went

up this

morning I did go short and I think kind

of went up a little bit more but that's

like a 10% shift 10 to 13% shift in

value uh which on short-term options

isn't that big of a deal but um we'll

see I'm not optimistic about the FED

meeting so I'm actually playing a triple

short uh I'm calling it a triple short

strategy one of them uh of this triple

short strategy I'll be transparent uh

about well you know one of them one of

them is Tesla uh I have another

short and I'm GNA make a video on uh

this one tomorrow so we're GNA call this

one the uh

uh it's a 3 to four beta on the market

and so I'm short this particular stock

because it's up against some pretty

severe resistance and I think it's

there's a really good opportunity on

this and I'll reveal that one tomorrow

uh and then I'll give you a heads up on

this one now I did on the idea of a buy

the rumor sell the news I went short arm

so I have a triple short

strategy uh their uh their options and

uh yeah that's a full transparent update

on everything that's going on so we got

Troy test like check him out on Twitter

we've got Goldman Sachs we've got this

update on what what where my positioning

is because I want to be transparent with

my thoughts about what could happen with

uh FSD and competition I still think

Tesla is way ahead of everybody else I

do think there's a chance that Nvidia

actually is collecting way more on the

road data than than we can even imagine

right now and they're probably already

running way more Sims than we think

so I'm bearish and I'm also using the

signal of quite frankly Bitcoin as as

another sign let me show you what's

happening with Bitcoin right now sorry I

really need to get a switch for this

there we go I have um I have to unplug

this HDMI and I just need to get a

little button and then I have to replug

it in to do certain things it's very

inconvenient but I will fix that uh this

is what I want to show you it's my

Windows computer I actually really like

it

everything else is Mac but here's my

Windows computer so I've been tracking

Bitcoin and uh as you can see we're

having serious problems at that 69 fiby

but we're also getting a uh you know

downtrend that I I have marked on my Mac

I guess it doesn't transfer over here

but I'm tracking this downtrend right

here and uh this is not great we're

getting a little bit of uh you know can

you can you potentially draw you know

something like like

this I mean clearly we just broke out of

it so it doesn't really matter much but

we have some issues here this is pretty

messy

but I don't know if there are inflows

left for the ETFs or why this is

happening personally I'm sure there's

there are plenty of inflows left but I

think what this is is a little bit of a

riskof trade after uh or in anticipation

of the Federal Reserve that's my take on

this and so the downtrend has what begun

there is a potential fourth short

position that I'm going to take tomorrow

and it's related to bitcoin and

obviously with all my alerts I send the

Bell alerts in the stocks and psychology

money group get access to the course

member live streams every morning as

well and uh you get full disclosure on

those trads so look forward to seeing

you there and uh if you want to use

Weeble go to metkevin.com Weeble check

out the link down below it's right next

to link for life insurance you as little

as 5 minutes and appreciate you watching

let me know your thoughts we'll see you

soon good luck and every not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin P there financial

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