Michael Burry FLIPS | The Massive Coming Market Crash -50%.

holy smokes Michael burry just a

flip-flopped we also got some new data

this morning on what's going on with

consumers GDP and inflation we'll talk

about that in this video in just a

moment but first

holy smokes what a flip-flop this was

Michael burry on January 31st when he

tweeted the word sell period he tweeted

that after an incredible December uh

sell-off which was probably driven by

substantial tax loss harvesting in fact

Nancy Pelosi and her husband took over

two and a half million dollars of losses

on companies like Salesforce Tesla

PayPal just to dump out of the market

presumably to tax us Harvest to offset

other potential gains that they had

since usually their signal they're the

signal of what to do they did some big

tax loss harvesting too a lot of Tesla

investors probably tax loss harvested

leading Tesla to hit its bottom in

December and Michael Murray after the

January recovery tweets sell well guess

what Michael burry has tweeted today and

it is a total flip-flop a complete

flip-flop from what he tweeted on

January 31st Michael Murray tweeted the

following I was wrong to say sell

holy smokes oh

I hope you're not using Michael Murray

as your financial advisor and even

though I am a licensed financial advisor

I'm not trying to solicit your business

I don't do personalized Financial advice

I do run an act and actually manage ETF

I have courses on building your wealth I

have a real estate startup and I have

affiliate links for like life insurance

and free stocks linked down below but

more importantly Michael burry wrote I

was wrong to say sell and Beyond

suggesting that he was wrong to say sell

and he just tweeted this as well he also

tweeted the following with a chart

coming from a Bloomberg story that we

also covered this morning in the meet

Kevin report the Bloomberg story has to

do with buy the dippers and Michael

burry tweeted going back to the 1920s

there has been no by the effing dip

generation like you congratulations and

he shows these blue charts on the right

side the blue bars being higher than at

any point in history and it says the s p

500's average return following down Days

by year this is the second best year for

the buy the dip strategy now this was uh

all in an article by Bloomberg talking

about how by the dippers are back and

forth where the stock market and

especially the NASDAQ is now back in a

bull market we actually covered uh this

this morning uh in our meet Kevin report

and you can see the section over here

look at this section they're referring

to the fear of missing out on the next

big rally is leading to a replay of dip

buying impetus during the 2020 bull run

the S P 500 wow imagine comparing today

to 2020 which was basically v-shaped

recovery right I mean that would be a

pretty sharp Nike Swoosh because this is

the thing the recovery I think we get

with a lot of volatility in it but wow

the S P 500 has gained an average of 0.3

percent following any down days this

year on Pace for the second biggest

Rebound in data going back to the Great

Depression 1927. that's the article

Michael burry uh read it was actually

one of the front page articles this

morning and apparently it convinced

Michael burry to tweet I was wrong to

say well so what does this mean for the

Nike Swoosh and the recovery well

obviously it's pretty optimistic this is

fantastic news uh Michael Barry one of

the biggest bears is actually coming out

going damn okay well maybe I was wrong

that takes something because he's not

doubling down like most bears are doing

you go to like Morgan Stanley's Mike

Wilson what are they doing they're

doubling down on how basically we're

going to hit new lower lows and instead

when we actually jump over to look at

the Nike Swoosh uh one of the things

we're noticing is that every time we had

rotated down last year we wrote it after

a little bit of a rally we rotated down

to a new low look at that we had pain in

December of 2021 uh the a couple years

ago now geez well a little more than a

year ago anyway we rotated down had a

little rally plummeted lower had a

little rally plummeted lower had a

little rally plummeted lower had a

little rally plummeted lower now what's

happening how to Rally stabilized had a

rally did not make a new low now we're

back in rally it's an interesting Trend

and I think it's the setup for the Nike

Swoosh recovery this is why we do the

fundamental analysis we do in the course

member live streams so exciting but

let's talk about some of the data that

just came out this morning and what did

potentially means going forward

especially as it relates to what we just

heard from Michael Murray now we gotta

talk about GDP and jobless claims that

just came out these and this data just

came out we got initial claims for

jobless data coming in at 198

000 jobless claims the expectation was

195. the more jobless claims we get the

more of a sign that maybe some of the

impacts of higher rates are starting to

hit the last report was 191 we were

expecting 195 we got 198. continuing

claims unfortunately though well I guess

good for the individual but not so great

for necessarily the economy came in low

the estimate was 1.7 mil we came in at

1.689 suggesting people were able to get

right back into the labor market uh we

did get GDP annualized quarter over

quarter at 2.6 percent

slightly lower than the survey and Last

Read of 2.7 we also got personal

consumption which has officially dropped

Last Read 1.4 percent the current survey

1.4 percent current result

one percent so miss on personal

consumption GDP Price Index

stable at 3.9 percent that is consistent

with the prior and the survey core pce

quarter over quarter that's the quarter

measure of the personal consumption

expenditure that is not to be confused

with the data that we get Friday morning

on the 31st which would be the month

over month and year-over-year figures

for pce quarter over quarter pce

actually Rose a little bit to 4.4

percent up from the priority to 4.3 and

the survey of 4.3 so what do we make of

this well somewhat mixed data here a

little bit higher on the core inflation

numbers here on uh on the quarter over

quarter GDP a little slower than

expected and Retail and personal

consumption coming in slightly lower

than expected we don't necessarily like

that because what we want to do is avoid

a recession while at the same time

inflation comes down we just got the

opposite right we got a little bit more

inflation and a little bit less GDP and

a little bit less retail sales so we

actually went today's these numbers that

just came out a little closer to

recession a little further away on the

battle

for ending inflation and the

inflationary fears so I would say not

fantastic I'd like to take a quick look

to see how the market is responding to

that these are not horribly different

though from expectations so they're

pretty close and the market initially

had a slight red Candlestick on the

NASDAQ we slightly red candlesticked

over uh to the uh in this case 200

minute moving average however we

immediately green candle sticked right

after that on the NASDAQ so it looks

like the market is is willing to accept

more patience here the same thing

happened over here on the 200 minute

candle for the S P 500 another place

that we can look will be the uh let's

look at yields so let's see how yields

are moving specifically bonds looks like

bonds basically flat on this news here

we've got the tenure sitting at

3.572 if we compare this to the two-year

treasury yield we'll be able to look for

an inversion of the yields curve and

remember it's generally the subsequent

re-steepening of the yield curve uh that

is the most painful two-year sitting

right now at

4.126 so still inverted on the twos tens

over here and a lot of folks say that

you get the inversion basically right

when you hit recession so something to

keep in mind there let's take a look at

what Wall Street is suggesting about

this uh and potentially also CNBC so

let's give them a quick listen here

right here yesterday and today

um all right how's the days in okay you

have any room service

um no Joe we're at a pretty decent hotel

here you know we've been doing this for

a while when you jump over to CNBC

sometimes they just talk about nonsense

uh anyway so uh no real comments from

Wall Street just yet uh let's see if

they actually have any from on CNBC yes

otherwise I'll go to Bloomberg

why don't they show up in JavaScript I

think the story Joe whether I came up

with at the very beginning and seems to

be the case right now is they seem to be

getting jobs or maybe it's just the

extended uh benefits package makes them

ineligible for jobless claims but but

the idea that we're still under after

how many weeks running now uh is really

quite remarkable you would have thought

we would have had a surge yet and it's

interesting the FED just can't get that

job market to loosen up the way it wants

to give me the I know there's going to

be a first read on first quarter GDP

give me your preliminary read on first

quarter GDP yeah we're seeing like we're

seeing like a two percent I think was

the latest Joe in fact I was just trying

to look it up before because I was

inside listening to Sheila bear but but

uh CNBC update

yeah former chair bear who is uh really

good but but the the last thing I saw

Joe was there two percent so so that

recession that everybody thought was

going to happen in the first quarter

isn't going to happen and I don't think

they're predicting it for the second

quarter it's down the road someplace and

at some point um I guess it happens in

the sense that you have these

inventories pull back but but I was

talking to somebody last night who said

they have a lot of retail clients and

the retailers were preparing for this

downturn and of course once you prepare

for a downturn sometimes that shock

doesn't ever happen because you prepared

for it you got a frog in your throat

that little froggy yeah are you okay

that's actually a fan I don't know why

they're so distracting I don't you know

I think it's so interesting that

I think fate loves irony Elon Musk says

that I'm stealing a quote from him and

how crazy would be if we don't actually

get the recession like he just said

policeman just said

we might not actually get the recession

because people come to prepare for the

recession how weird is that that would

just be bizarre that like okay all right

let's be a little more careful wait

let's not go to the Moon here with our

spending let's just be a little bit more

relaxed and measured and then what ends

up happening people are relaxed and

measured you get slightly above uh zero

growth but you don't get Negative growth

and then what

you don't get recession that would be

wild and see I think there's a lot of

talk right now that the way that we get

lower prices will really be like lower

stock prices the start of the recession

that's what a lot of people are

predicting and projecting right now uh

it's uh worth looking at the five year

Break Even inflation rate because the

five-year break-even inflation rate is

moving up a little bit and the moving up

of the five-year break-even inflation

rate does potentially suggest the fed's

gonna have to talk that down again and

really push us into recession to

actually get that inflation down so we

did have a softening there with the

banking crisis of that five-year Break

Even but now as the banking crisis is

fading you're actually getting uh The

Five-Year break-even inflation rate kind

of try to move back up I'd like to see

this trend continue if I go ahead and

draw a trend line here let's see what we

can draw it's very difficult to kind of

draw something solid here let's see if I

maybe go from over here here maybe maybe

we could draw a trend right about here

we'd like to see this overall downtrend

obviously you know in the big zoom out

here it is but uh it's a little

problematic that we had this Spike over

here and that was before the banking

crisis so the only thing that really

recently lowered these expectations for

inflation were the banking crisis so not

fantastic let's listen into a reaction

over here on the data even if Silicon

Valley had been in the stress test for

real last year rather than their dress

rehearsal with the scenario I think they

would have come out just fine but what

does that point us to that points us to

the fact that the stress test has become

a compliance exercise it's become

eminently predictable and you know Becky

I would be surprised if there weren't

some if there hadn't been some voices in

the FED over the last several years

saying we need to be testing for

increased interest rates but just as

supervision generally I think the stress

test is has just weakened over the years

yeah and that's likely to continue to

happen you know Joe Biden right now is

talking about this idea of maybe

punishing uh the mid-sized Banks and the

larger Banks but exempting smaller banks

credit unions are banding together

blaming uh markets and saying look it's

not fair to punish all the small Banks

because if we collapse it's not a big

deal we're small

but then at what point are you

systemically important and that was

supposed to be 250 mil but apparently it

was the smaller Banks like Silicon

Valley Bank or signature or silvergate

that were important enough to basically

bail out

so it's interesting regarding this data

that just came out uh we do have a

comment here that uh quote data offers a

little fresh insight there isn't much

new insight from this morning's data

releases jobless claims were pretty much

bang in line with expectations while

there were some modest downside

adjustments to stale Q4 GDP figures

thanks to a downgrade of consumer

spending estimates core inflation was

revised slightly higher but that's

pretty much ancient history now

tomorrow's February pce data will be

much more relevant for the near-term

fortunes of the market but arguably even

that data is stale after this month's

turmoil ah they basically just put salt

on the pce release tomorrow come on man

that's not cool I want to cover the pce

tomorrow because that way I can remind

you about life insurance and and free

stocks linked down below and an ETF and

course member live streams and my real

estate startup whatever it's actually an

interesting point though I mean could it

be that inflation data from February is

stale because of the banking crisis I

mean I suppose do like do normal people

spend less money because of the banking

crisis we know businesses do but do

regular people really care I don't know

uh I I suspect not but uh that gives you

the numbers that came out this morning

why the numbers from this morning could

be a nothing burger what they could

potentially signal I like leesman's

argument about wow it seems like the FED

just can't do anything to get jobs down

because people are just finding new jobs

kind of reiterates the idea of a tight

labor market I suppose but at least you

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thank you

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