this changes everything for robotaxis
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Kevin is much more interested than most
people by the way in the balance sheet.
>> And the balance sheet is exactly what we
have to talk about when we talk about
Lucid today because Lucid had a really
incredible partnership announcement. And
it's a multi-way partnership
announcement which is a gamecher for not
just Lucid, but also the NeuroAI company
they're partnering with. We'll talk
about them and some of their history in
just a moment. But you've got to know
whose backs they're leveraging off of.
And let's just say the company rhymes
with Nvidia. And we'll briefly talk
about Uber as well. So just so you know,
quickly overview what happened. There
was an announcement where Uber said they
will buy uh 20,000
Lucid Gravity SUVs. These are the larger
SUVs from Lucid. They only sold three in
the last quarter. So, this is pretty
exciting that they're announcing this
20,000 or more Lucid vehicles. But in
order to be useful to Uber, Uber wants
these Lucid vehicles to be equipped with
the Neuro Driver AI platform over the
next 6 years, beginning deployment next
year in 2026. Obviously, 6 years is an
insanely long run rate. Uh 20,000
vehicles over 6 years only works out to
about 3,300. That's not really the big
deal here. And we're going to break down
where the big winner is in all of this.
But I will say this is great news for
the Lucid Gravity, which is really your
competitor to, I would argue, the Model
X, maybe the extended version of the
Model Y, where you could fit seven folks
inside of it. I always question how much
trunk space you actually really have in
this Lucid SUV. They show this photo
here. I doubt it. I have the Model X,
which I think is a direct competitor to
this, and there's almost no space when
you have seven seats in there. Point is,
for a robo taxi, at least the five seat
version is perfect because it gives you
the spacious uh uh functional vehicle.
People could then use trunk space in for
their baggage, going to airports or
whatever. It's basically a great robo
taxi vehicle. One of the reasons Lucid
is desirable, though, is because they
manufacture their vehicles in Arizona.
So, it's made in the USA by a US
company. Now, yes, they've got massive
investments from the Saudis, and they
want the next big development facility
to be in Saudi Arabia, which is fine,
but Lucid has really been dying, at
least as a stock, and this is the breath
of life that Lucid really needs. When we
talk about the balance sheet and its
ability to survive, they have some
ability to survive, but it's not great
right now. Now, if you look at their
cash flow statement, they're burning
about $600 million per quarter. You can
see here, 3 months ending Q1, we burn
428 in operating activities and another
161 in plant, property, equipment
expenditures, that puts us at roughly
600 mil. If we remove our current assets
from the balance sheet or our current
liabilities rather from the balance
sheet, in other words, the bills that we
need to pay and we remove that from the
cash we have, we've got about a year of
cash available. So, Lucid desperately
needs this partnership. Anything to get
more Lucid cars to sell and more of a
streamlined pipeline for the, you know,
3,000 cars or whatever that they sell in
a period of time is very, very
important.
for Lucid's stock. This is fantastic
in the short term. We'll talk about what
Lucid likely has to do soon as in the
second quarter, I got the exact number
here, the second quarter, le Lucid
delivered just 3,300 vehicles. So, this
uh Uber partnership really enables you
to say, "Hey, our quarterly total
vehicle deliveries,
Uber is basically adding on an annual
basis for us," which is great. So, it's
a nice boost. It keeps those production
lines moving and it lets them integrate
with this potential self-driving
platform, NeuroAI, which we have to talk
about because it's all about Nvidia. But
let's take a brief moment and look at
the Lucid stock. So, Lucid stock is
being rumored to go through a reverse a
one to 10 split, which basically means
for every 10 shares you own of this,
you'll get one share, which would just
multiply the stock price by 10. The
reason they want to do this is because,
frankly, being a penny stock and looking
like this on a chart basis doesn't look
fantastic. This stock has been bleeding
out since interest rates moved up and
has really been suffering. Today it's up
45% which is great $10 billion company
compared to Rivian's $14 billion. Now
this does create somewhat of a ceiling
for Lucid because if you look at Rivian
you actually find that they've just gone
gross profitable on their vehicles.
Their service revenues are supporting
cash flows of the business and Rivian's
becoming a more sustainable business
with substantially more deliveries than
Lucids. But Rivian's only trading for
$14 billion. So either Rivian is trading
way too low or Lucid's going to hit some
resistance here really soon. Two things
really worth mentioning quickly on
today's stock market moves. This morning
in our alpha report before the market
opened up and in my video I said this
morning's data could easily unlock
bullishness as long as we hold 55720
on the cues. Look at this folks. I wrote
that before the market open to all my
course members. Meet Kevin.com. You
could join. You pay once, you get
lifetime access. Use coupon code Mr. Too
late. Look at this. We bounced within
one penny of exactly where I said and we
were off to the races from there. Okay,
second thing that I said, which is
remarkable because Open Door, I've been
talking about it since it was 60 60ish
cents. I said Open Door $2 stock because
it's done this so many times before. And
so I made a note about Open Door this
morning because it was up like 30 40%
this morning. Take a look at what I
wrote. I actually wrote the following
and you could verify this in like all my
course member live streams are archived
and you could see this. So I wrote uh
there's talk about a reverse split with
it. When we were at 60, we talked about
$2. This morning when we were talking
about it, it was at $2.20 and I said
this gets a bit wild above this level.
So, I'd consider trailing stops at your
preference. Possibly consider -10 - 20%
depending on what you want or you could
go tighter, right? But the whole point
is like Open Door is a volatile stock,
but we're starting to get a little toppy
here where you kind of have to start
asking yourself like how much longer is
this going to keep going on? We wrote
that when it was $220
this morning. So, we called it from 60
all the way to $2. And and now you can
see it's had I mean it's still up 14% on
the day, but from when we wrote this,
it's down from that 220 when we wrote
and published this down to about 170. So
those trailing stops could have really
maximized profit for somebody. So if you
want these alpha reports, you know, I
can't guarantee they're always going to
be right or perfect. Again, we've had
some really amazing hits here. Uh but
you really ought to consider checking it
out over at mekevin.com and using that
coupon code. Another one that I pitched
as well this morning in the alpha
report, mostly because the retail sales
data was a firm which is now knocking on
$70, which is pretty exciting. This is
that meet Kevin.com website. Remember,
if you get the meet Kevin membership,
you pay once, you get all eight courses,
trade alerts, private live stream, alpha
report. We got a bunch of trade alerts
coming out later this month, probably
starting next week, uh, which is
exciting. You get access to all the
courses. Stock psychology of money, zero
to millionaire, real estate investing,
sales, psychology, property management,
rental renovation, social media,
productivity with AI, Trumpomics. Got a
lot coming out by the way in this now
that the big beautiful bill is passed. A
lot of new content coming out for this
uh soon as well. Just remember to use
coupon code Mr. Too late before the
price goes up. It is arguable that
Rivian is trading for way too low and
it's just a matter of time for a you
know an AI company to partner with
Rivian and go hey we'll employ our full
stack self-driving software uh into
Rivians and basically do the same Lucid
style partnership except with Rivians I
actually think Rivians would be great
for this. Uh the thing is right now a
heavy focus for them is selling to
consumers. Whereas I think Lucid is kind
of like it's hard for us to sell to
consumers. We're trying. We're only
selling 3,000. We basically just need to
ourselves out to fleet sales. Take
a look at this. Rivian is guiding 40 to
46,000 vehicles for 2025, which Lucid's
going to be under 15,000. So you're
doing three times as many vehicles at
Rivian. Rivian's cash and cash
equivalents of $4.6 billion. I've got
$2.5 billion of short-term investments.
I'll just take out all of their current
liabilities, including their deferreds.
If I take out all of their current
liabilities, I'm down to about 4.3. I
divide that by the 500 burn, I've got
about 2 and 1/4 years of cash flow. So,
I've got much or or cash available for
cash burn. I've got more than twice the
runway at Rivian and the stock's only
about 40% more expensive. Now look at
the revenues over here. This is where it
gets interesting. On the revenue side,
we've got 922 million of automotive
revenues, software revenues at 318,
total revs at 1.2 bill. We actually have
gross profit. So our cost of goods sold
were only a bill. This is a huge flip
for Rivian who previously has always
been upside down and they finally
flipped in their most recent earnings
reports to where they're actually gross
profitable. This is why when you compare
as car companies Rivian and Lucid,
Rivian blows Lucid out of the water
balance sheet wise, revenue size uh or
wise, scale-wise, three times as many
deliveries. This would be a great future
potential autonomous partnership, but
they're not exploding today because they
don't have the benefit of the
enthusiasm, the reverse stock split, and
this AI announcement. I personally think
that Lucid has a shot uh in this reverse
split staying at today's prices of
potentially running up to about $6.
I think then Lucid would be really smart
to raise as much money as possible.
basically pull an MP material. The stock
moves up on some form of news of
partnership and then you print stock to
raise money and actually increase and
fortify your balance sheet. You need
more than a a one-year run rate. That
does mean the momentum could suddenly
stop for Lucid, but in the short term,
this is great news for Lucid. Now, let's
understand the AI partnership that
they've got going on. They've partnered
with this company called Neuro AI.
NeuroAI never used to actually do AI uh
vehicles like robo taxi vehicles. In
fact, they started as a delivery robot
company. So, think about like those
deliver that deliver food uh you know
restaurant orders or whatever. NeuroAI
in just the last two years, roughly
about the last year and a half, decided
to adopt the Nvidia
uh autonomous vehicle platform, the
drive, the orange and drive platform,
the Thor platform, and they use Nvidia
for all of their ADAS technology, which
is interesting because it kind of makes
you wonder like what are the actual
startup costs for an AI uh you know,
robo taxi company to start working with
cameras, radars, and lidars. Well, not
much if you're just going to brand a
beautiful website about how, hey, look,
we could do all this self-driving
technology, but you're really just
leveraging off of AI software stock or
stack over at Nvidia. And that's what I
think is so interesting is that Nvidia
actually pitches uh this announcement
with Neuro because it's great for
Nvidia. And that's what I really think
is that here's a company that used to do
these, you know, smaller delivery
vehicles, which I'll show you a video of
in just a moment here. Uh, and they've
transformed into an autonomous vehicle
platform. How? Simply by adopting the
uh, Nvidia platform. Here's what they
used to have. This is an older video of
their autonomous little delivery vehicle
right here. There it is in Palo Alto.
This is their claim to fame is they
could deliver these, you know, food or
packages or whatever. They could deliver
these little vehicles with packages
inside of them wherever autonomously as
electric vehicles, zero emissions, blah
blah blah. Now, that's cool, but their
transition to vehicles is very recent
and new. They've only been doing this
for about a year and a half. They don't
really hold a candle in my opinion to
the technology stack that you've got
going on even frankly at Volkswagen and
the tech experiences that they're
building out with robo taxis in Hamburg,
Germany, Hamburg, Deutseland or
obviously to Tesla though Tesla when it
started it used Nvidia chips and Nvidia
software stack as well and I wouldn't be
surprised if still today they use Nvidia
simulation models uh and then they go
test with uh with the non- Nvidia uh
simulation models by just using Tesla's
neural net directly. That said, I am a
little bit skeptical how much Neuro is
really going to be able to aid Lucid,
but the announcement is really exciting
because really what you've got is Uber
saying we're going to give $300 million
to enable Neuro to be installed in
Gravity Lucids. Then we're gonna buy at
least 20,000 gravities that we're going
to operate ourselves, which means Uber
kind of now owns the cars as well.
That's kind of a bit of a competitor if
you think about it to Tesla. Tesla wants
to own the cars as well. And now you're
going to this place where Tesla wants to
own the stack and Uber's like, "Hey, you
know what? We want to be owning this
stack as well."
So, you're starting to see the big
companies are saying, "You know what? We
need to partner with manufacturers and
we're going to own the cars." Google
partners with Toyota, which is a huge
partnership for the Whimo deal. You've
got uh uh Volkswagen developing their
own robo taxi uh you know, stack
essentially. Uh now you've got Lucid
partnering with Neuro. It's just a
matter of time for Riven to partner with
somebody. So, this is kind of big news
also for Rivian because they'll partner
with somebody soon as well. I do
question how much actual technology is
at this NeuroAI company. Frankly,
NeuroAI, they if you look at their
YouTube channel, really what they did is
they spent and you could look at the
history of the company as well, they
spent years trying to pitch how great
their delivery product was and a lot of
it seemed to be to raise money. You
know, here's Nuro. We're helping heroes
during COVID 19. We have a touchless
delivery service or whatever. Everything
seemed to be built around marketing this
company as something that, you know,
venture capitalists should invest into.
And now you never hear about their
delivery robots anymore. Instead,
they're like, why don't we just plug in
Nvidia's AI software stack partner?
Here's the partnership announcement from
a year ago. Let's just flip to doing
cars from March 18th, 24. Let's just
flip to doing cars in a similar way as
we were doing the delivery service and
we'll just use Nvidia's platform which
Nvidia's platform keeps growing. They
just announced the Halo system which is
really combining everything that Nvidia
has the uh cloud infrastructure which
Nvidia will license you uh the
opportunity to use their servers to you
know essentially build out your robo
taxi stack. They'll sell you the systems
on chips that you could plug into your
actual cars. uh and they'll sell you
everything you need to basically connect
the two going from car to server and
back and forth. However, all the compute
you need, Nvidia will sell you. So, this
is why I actually think Nvidia is a big
winner in this because it shows you that
if you want to catch up really fast in
autonomous vehicles, you just need
Nvidia in your life. Now, what's
fascinating too is if you go to the Wall
Street Journal, there's an oped here by
Aaron Gin. uh he does he's got some kind
of like platform or whatever that he
works for where they enable businesses
to monetize unused GPUs and CPUs called
hydro platforms. Anyway, he wrote an
op-ed this morning in the in the Wall
Street Journal. And they actually say
that, you know, we should be excited
about Nvidia going to China and Jensen
Wong talking up Huawei or talking up
how, you know, Chinese is his first
language because really what you want is
you want everybody building on CUDA
because it's a benefit to American
manufacturing. The more we have American
companies and not like companies like
Huawei or Sony or Samsung or whatever
building, the more we have Nvidia as as
the core that's being built on, the
better it is for America and frankly the
better it is for Nvidia. And I think
this is a fantastic point of view. And I
link it really well to this neurolucid
partnership because I don't really care
about Uber owning some of the cars
themselves. I think Uber's a little bit
of a at this point where they kind
of just have to partner with everybody
because that's the point. Like Uber
wants to be in a place where when you
open up that app, you know you're going
to get a car fast. You know you're going
to get from point A to point B as
quickly as possible. You don't care what
the car looks like. You just want to get
in and have a comfortable experience.
You don't want to talk to anybody. You
don't want to be in a stinky car. You
don't want a bad aggressive driver. You
don't want a driver who's cracking the
windows, not running the AC because, you
know, they want to cheap out and save a
couple cents on on gas between your
point A to point B commute. Instead, you
want a robo taxi. Like, that is going to
be the future. But for all of these
these vehicle companies to catch up, you
really got to get to a point where you
say, "Hey, we're going to catch up by
adopting the NVIDIA drive platform, and
that's how we're going to end up
competing with Tesla." That's the the
only way you can really compete with
Tesla. You have a duopoly right now. You
have Tesla and you have Nvidia and
Nvidia is really just the umbrella for
everybody else. So people are getting
excited about this talk about, hey,
Lucid is going to do robo taxis. But
understand what's actually enabling that
is an AI company that just basically
rebranded itself to doing cars from
delivery robots after the delivery
robots basically failed because if it
was a big success, they would still be
doing it and still talking about it,
which they don't talk about it at all
anymore. So obviously that failed. So
they flip-flop. How do they flip-flop?
Nvidia. Once again, Nvidia wins. And
that's why I say like it's only a matter
of time for someone like a Rivian to
also partner in this. So short-term
momentum, Lucid, great. Like it'll
probably keep going. Do they need to
fund raise? Absolutely. So, is there a
potential downside there? 100%. But in
the near term, don't turn a blind eye to
the potential of Rivian being a a cheap
play in this market. I I'm I'm not
trying to shill Rivian because I'm like
all in on Rivian or whatever. I don't I
don't even think I own a single Rivian
stock. I'm just saying this is this is
Nvidia first, but every car company is
eventually going to follow this path.
The only thing that's interesting out of
all of it to me is Uber buying their own
cars, actually trying to say, "Hey, we
don't just need to partner with every
other company. We're also going to own
our own cars." That's interesting
because it in it does a few things for a
company like Uber. One, you could
probably take advantage of Donald
Trump's 100% bonus depreciation and just
write off all these cars for use in
business. In fact, I wonder what the
lucid gravity weight is. Lucid gravity
weight. Uh yeah, 6,50.
I'm pretty sure the 179 deduction
triggers after 6,000 lb. And it's
literally 6,50.
What a surprise why they went for the
SUV. Uber's looking for a tax write off
against all the money they make. So,
let's just go buy some of our existing
fleet so we could get some tax
deductions. Man, that's actually kind of
brilliant. So, uh again, overall put all
the pieces of the puzzle together.
You've got Uber trying to be that top of
mind app. You open up the app, you're
going to get a ride. Do you really care
if it's a Whimo? Do you really care if
it's got a million LAR beams going
everywhere? No. You just want to get
from point A to point B in reasonable
safety and comfort without having to
worry about some knucklehead driver.
Great. Uh Uber wins here. Uber gets its
extra tax deduction by buying these and
making an investment into the Lucid. And
honestly, they know the stock's going to
pump anyway after their investment. So,
it's like they probably just paid for
all their gravity cars anyway via this
the, you know, investments they probably
made in Ducid. So, that's that. Then you
look at this neuroai company. To me, I
see it really as just a shell or like a
wrapper around Nvidia. Think about
Nvidia as the open AI, except there's
like no competition to it. I mean, AMD
to some extent, but no, doesn't really
hold a candle to Nvidia. Uh, and then
NeuroAI is just sort of a little wrapper
on top of it. Uh, and then do also
consider that the more lucid momentum's
up, the more desirable it is for them to
raise money because they're running out
of it. They've got a year of run rate
left. although the Saudis will probably
bail them out if they worst case have
to. And number two, it probably pumps up
Rivian because it's just a matter of
time before they partner with somebody
as well uh in this space. All of it, by
the way, is not great for Tesla, right?
If you put all of this information
together, it all kind of hurts Tesla.
The more Nvidia does well in expanding
these partnerships, the more Tesla has a
competitor. Remember, it's Tesla and
Nvidia. And the more Nvidia expands, the
more it hurts Tesla. the more Tesla uh
kind of I mean I hate to say it but
doesn't manufacture new models of
vehicles, the more Tesla falls a little
behind on the consumer preference
standards. You know, I tweeted
yesterday, I thought this was really
cool. I tweeted this. This is exactly
what we want. Tesla make great cars,
many of them. And here's somebody named
Dan who says, "I need a Tesla van ASAP.
something with seven to eight seats and
storage room because the X doesn't have
the storage room part. Uh, and they sort
of mock this up and I'm like, yes, like
why don't we have more choices uh like
this? Tesla should be milking that while
working their AI projects. Like you
don't have to go allin autonomous, which
Elon is doing. And because he's going
allin autonomous, he is losing that
consumer side a little bit, which
basically means it's Tesla versus Nvidia
on the AI side. Okay. Well, Nvidia
doesn't give a flying F if Vision wins
or LiDAR wins. Does not matter at all.
If LiDAR wins, Tesla loses. If LiDAR
loses, Nvidia still wins because they'll
just use all their their software sack
for camera technology and licensing it
to all these other partners. So, I think
this is sort of a it's something we've
been talking about for the last few
years, but not a lot of people actually
look at Nvidia as being a big gamecher
for autonomous vehicles.
And the circular thing about Nvidia is
the more people license Nvidia for
autonomous vehicles, the more compute
they're going to be doing anyway to
train their own vehicles, which is just
circular to selling more GPUs. And then
more companies announcing more
partnerships with Nvidia for their cars
or rappers like Neuro just leads to more
companies wanting Nvidia and again more
GPU. It's this crazy flywheel that you
have going on at Nvidia that's really
really powerful.
>> Why not advertise these things that you
told us here? I feel like nobody else
knows about this.
>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and
see how it goes.
>> Congratulations, man. You have done so
much. People love you. People look up to
you.
>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst
and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great
to get your take.
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