this could CRASH the market tomorrow

hey everyone me kevin here in this video

i'm going to talk about what could crash

the market tomorrow and why you've got

to pay attention to something that

happens pretty early tomorrow morning so

at 5 30 a.m pacific standard time at 8

30 a.m eastern time we're going to get

the jobs report which sounds basic but

it is one of the few remaining major

catalysts that we have of mass potential

uncertainty remember the amount of

uncertainty we had just three weeks ago

which led to a pretty horrible september

and a drawdown in the s p 500 of over

seven percent the first time we've seen

a drawdown of over five percent in over

a year since september of 2022. remember

the catalyst we had government was going

to shut down the ever grant crisis was

going to create a recession and we are

uh we were going to miss the debt

ceiling and we were going to default on

our obligations we were going to have an

infrastructure nightmare lead to

hyperinflation we had inflationary

concerns with inflation statistics

coming out on october 13th we have the

uh jerome powell and the fed and the

question of are they going to taper or

not and how long is it going to take for

them to taper and when they're going to

raise rates and we've got the jobs

report we've had all these seven

signs or seven issues of uncertainty and

almost all of them have gone away with

the exception of jobs and the october

13th inflation report almost everything

else has been resolved we have solutions

now for the infrastructure package that

looks like it's going to be somewhere

around one and a half trillion dollars

we have the taper plan we have a plan to

avoid a debt ceiling crisis our

government didn't shut down evergrant

didn't wasn't as bad as anybody thought

it was going to be which by the way is

what we expected on this channel in

almost every evergrand video i made i

said i don't expect this to create

contagion it'll probably go away and i'm

buying this dip i'm really glad i bought

the dip but

tomorrow we could see a big fat dip if

these jobs numbers come in in an

unexpected manner so we've got two

potential directions this could go very

bad first expectations the expectation

for the jobs report is that we are going

to see 500 000 jobs so a headline number

we're looking for tomorrow morning first

thing is did we get 500 000 500 000 jobs

more or less in my opinion if we're

anywhere between 350 to probably 650

we're not going to be too terribly

worried about what happens it's just

going to be another thing that we check

off the list and go okay jobs report was

a non-issue moving on however there is

also a number within the jobs report

that's going to be closely looked at and

it's not just the unemployment rate

which we expect to go from 5.2 percent

to 5.1 percent which is kind of nominal

big deal 0.1 movement to the downside

whatever

what we're actually going to be looking

for is the average hourly earnings and

their movement on a month to over month

basis this is basically trying to figure

out what the inflation rate is of jobs

and wages that people are being paid on

a month-over-month basis if we get let's

say a strong payroll report we get let's

say 600 000 jobs let's just say

but the average hourly earnings went up

on a 1

month over month basis which the

expectation is point four percent

last month was point six percent well

the one percent change month over month

would on an annualized rate be a 12

rate of growth in wages which is a

massive inflationary concern and is

going to lead to potential issues for

next thursday and the market's going to

start pricing that in right away i'm

sorry next wednesday when the inflation

statistics come out so you've got these

two statistics i would say probably the

absolute worst case scenario is that we

add way fewer jobs than expected let's

say we come in at 300 000 jobs

and the average month over month pay

goes up about let's say

0.8 or 0.1 percent this would be a

stagflationary fear that in my opinion

has a very real possibility of leading

to a an ugly and bloody red day just an

hour before market opens tomorrow i'll

be buying the dip

but

here's what if we get fewer jobs created

than we expected in september which

would be odd because in september we're

really expecting more jobs because

remember the federal unemployment boost

expired 300 a month expired september

3rd and delta concerns mostly went away

in september we had many more delta

concerns in august when we last had a

big miss on the unemployment report so

if we get a low number in new jobs in

september when some of these job fairs

are gone again unemployment delta and

those things are gone

and the number comes in low that's bad

that's a sign that the economy is

potentially stagnating having issues

solving uh solving the challenges that

we face because we don't just face

supply shortages or material shortages

we face worker shortages which all lead

to inflationary pressures bad and if at

the same time then wages go up at a

higher uh rate

again something close to like crazy like

one percent the market's going to be

screaming stagflation we're probably

going to see the 10-year treasury yield

pop over 1.6 percent and i would expect

to see some serious pain

in the technology stocks now a good

scenario on a missed to the downside

could be something like okay we get

let's say 400 000 jobs so it's a little

bit softer than expected maybe 300 000

jobs but we have a low inflationary

number let's say job wages are flat

no wage inflation but a low jobs report

that could be good because it can

actually signal to the market that wait

a minute

we might be having trouble getting jobs

but don't worry wages aren't going up

hey fed maybe you shouldn't taper as

fast let's keep that cheap money flowing

to keep bond yields low and keep

money money money flowing into

technology and growth stocks so that

could actually be good on a miss the

downside you're going to have to

evaluate both these together it's not

just going to be that top line number

now then of course the a similar problem

could be something like

having a massive beat on the payroll

report and an inflationary number so

let's say we get a million new payroll

jobs and we just totally blow this

number out of the park

and we have a one percent

month-over-month inflationary read on

wages this is going to be a sign where

the market is saying oh crap maybe we're

not stagnating but we're definitely

inflating and we're potentially

overheating that could be another bad

case scenario that actually motivates

the federal reserve to speed up tapering

so stagflation on one side is bad right

a low number on jobs and high inflation

very bad within the jobs reading

but another very bad scenario could be a

massive beat on jobs which is something

you would expect people to cheer it'd be

a good thing but if that number that

inflationary that wage number comes in

very very high the market is also going

to freak out so you've got two scenarios

here where you could really have

freakouts again high inflation and a

miss stagflation high inflation and a

massive beat overheating we got a taper

sooner time to raise rates sooner

inflation's out of control we're running

away both of these are very real uh and

negative scenarios if we get a big beat

on jobs and we have low inflation that's

probably a good scenario

that would reiterate that the the fed's

probably on the right path and i don't

expect we would see much of a change in

market uh in markets if anything we

could even see a little bit of a rally

uh and and same thing to the downside if

we slightly miss on jobs on the downside

but there's no real change on inflation

on the downside probably be totally okay

now

the scenarios that i've just outlined

could also have implications not just

for growth or or stocks but could also

have implications for in fl for crypto

crypto i think is probably going to

react positively to a higher

month-over-month wage inflation so uh

watch for that in crypto but tomorrow's

going to be a big day because folks i

think it is literally one of the last

two punch cards we have

for a crises this year i think if all of

these issues go away if this jobs report

is benign if the inflation report next

week is benign

personally i think there's a chance we

might see some volatility going into the

end of the year as funds rebalance or

take losses for taxes but beyond that uh

i really think there's a chance people

are going to be plowing money into the

stock market and we could see that end

of the year rally that have kind of been

hoping for and somewhat expecting since

february

but we've certainly been through a lot

of pain since then but these are the

last two real market catalysts in my

opinion uh jobs again tomorrow 5 30 a.m

i will be streaming it live so stay

tuned please come i would love to

watch the reveal with you live and then

uh analyze what's happening i want to be

awake for this because if i see a sudden

panic in the market and a recovery you

know i'm buying that dip all right folks

thank you so very much for watching i

will see you in the next one thanks

again bye

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