Yes, Jobs were Bad. BUT...

Hey, so it's the evening before job

numbers. Here's what you need to know.

We'll keep it quick. We'll keep it

brief. 75,000, that's the number we're

looking for. The jobs uh numbers come

out at 5:30 in the morning tomorrow.

I'll be covering them. There are a few

things to know going into this though.

First of all, challenger job cut levels

this morning were pretty high. The

pharmaceutical industry, for example,

highest sectoral layoffs since the

global financial crisis. We haven't seen

pharmaceutical layoffs this high. And

it's really interesting because healthc

care has been an industry that uh a has

actually been helping prop up jobs uh

over the last 6 to 12 months here, but

also recently has been performing really

poorly in the stock market. Uh there are

two sectors that have really been

lagging in the stock market. one is real

estate and one is healthcare. Real

estate is interesting because a lot of

people say, "Hey, as rates go down, real

estate is going to be sort of the next

sector to invest in." Healthcare though,

I don't know if it has that sort of

sectoral tailwind. You know what I'm

saying? So, uh you're definitely seeing

uh probably an AI related impact here as

well, but this is quite a big increase.

Of course, top comment here is this is

just the RFK recession. Good one. Uh,

another thing to know is obviously

today's ADP numbers came in uh, weaker

on the weaker side. I was really looking

for something with a six in the front.

We got 54 somewhat, you know, lower than

expected. But I want you to know when

it's not that bad, it's really important

to remember functionally how this market

responds. When we get not that bad, we

actually end up getting good. Uh, I sent

an alert in my Discord earlier. uh

because it was just it was relative to

the alpha report that we sent this

morning and this was in our alpha report

this morning. You could see it

documented on where we send our PDF

reports out. Like you can't change it

after the fact, but I wrote uh this

suggests see markets will probably

discount ADP and challenger the

challenger layoffs this morning in favor

of decent claim numbers. This suggests a

Q's bounce today, but nervous before

tomorrow morning is still possible,

right? So, in other words, like, hey,

we're probably going to bounce on the

Q's today tentatively. Like, we're not

talking about like big yolo here, but

I'd look for a bounce at 569 and I would

play the upside. And I kid you not, I

sent this out in the pre-market right

here. Look at where we bounced within 3

cents of 569. And boys and girls

straight up from there. This is the kind

of stuff you want in your alpha report

every morning. So use that coupon code.

>> Bullish catalyst. You get lifetime

access. That's the kind of stuff we like

to do. You can't obviously always nail

it like that, but we do our best to hit

as many times as we can and give you the

perspective of how we come up with this

stat every day. So, uh, but the point is

tomorrow I think the same thing is going

to be true. I'm going to Sorry, I ate

way too much watermelon. I'm like packed

full of watermelon here. You ever do

that? And it just like it sits like a

pit in your stomach. I just go to town

on watermelon. But anyway, what you got

to know is if tomorrow we end up getting

a jobs report that's sort of like a

little bit of a miss to the downside.

Look, we're expecting 75. Say honestly,

we get 50 60 something like that. Who

cares? Even if we get revisions that

say, "Oh, we're even 10 20k lower than

before that." It's going to be enough to

give us confirmation that we're going to

get the 25 BP cut and then we're on with

it. We'll get a 25 basis point cut.

Everybody's just going to go break even

levels or lower on jobs report. Call it

a day. The next, you know, potentially

bearish catalyst, the opposite of

bullish catalyst. The bearish catalyst

is probably going to be when we get our

QCW revisions. Goldman Sachs is

projecting that we could see QCEW

revisions uh that are some of the

highest that we have seen since 2010.

Potentially a QCEW revision of up to

950,000

jobs to the downside. Largest revision

since 2010 coming. Now these are the

annual revisions that you get sort of

every 6 months. And Donald Trump is

already on Truth Social yapping about uh

we you know don't worry about the job

numbers tomorrow. We won't know the real

numbers for for a year from now. So

Donald Trump is already punting like ah

the job numbers don't matter on a

monthly basis anyway. You have to wait

for the real numbers in a year from now.

Well, we'll be in a big fat recession if

we wait that long. We need a Fed that's

responsive to these job numbers.

Uh best case scenario for markets is we

get some kind of jobs report tomorrow

that gives us something like uh you know

50,000 it's cooler 60,000 and then we

get kind of like what we saw today. You

bounce at something you get a little bit

of nervousness. Oh man, those numbers

weren't that great. And then you go but

you know unemployment claims were okay.

There's still greenshoots and ISM

services and S&P services today. Yeah,

we're seeing more inventory building and

we're seeing fewer future orders which

isn't good, but it's still expansionary.

Yeah, people were pulling forward

because of tariffs, but you know, things

are still overall expanding just at a

little bit of a slower rate. And

frankly, that is what a soft landing is,

right? A soft landing is GDP that's

below trend. And if trend is 2 and a

half% and GDP is running at two or 1.75,

technically that's a soft landing. And

so the market will cheer that I think.

Now where things get scary is if we get

some kind of really negative read like

you know 14,000 jobs and negative

revisions. That's when we start pricing

in 50 basis points. That's when the

10-year yield plummets. Uh that's when

TLT goes to the moon. That's when we

really start our more aggressive rate

cutting cycle. Donald Trump sort of

freaks out. The market has a short-term

heart attack. Uh but really it's gonna

be great for the rate cycle. I mean,

look at what's happened here on some of

these latest rates here, uh, rate

movements. We are down on the 10-year to

4.15. I mean, look at this. This is a

crazy movement over the last 5 days. Uh,

just two days ago, we were sitting at

4.3 4.31ish.

We've dropped about 15 basis points just

this week. You know, go out over the

last 3 months. I mean, we were at 4 1/2.

We were at 4.51 there for a moment. go

back, you know, to the beginning of the

year, year to date, we were at 4.77.

I mean, rates have already started

substantially trending down. Again,

really supportive for real estate. Don't

tell anyone, okay? Cuz, you know, we we

got to do the buying before everybody

else does. You know what I'm saying? We

got to we got to work on this together.

But, I mean, just put it this way. I

think there's a reason people put seven

figures into house hack last month. Uh,

and you know, this month today, I think

we're almost over $200,000 of of

fundraises. Uh, which which is

incredible because, you know, we only

started taking money 2 days ago in in in

this month because, you know, Tuesday is

the first business day this month. But

look at the downtrend, you know, on the

10-year here. This is great. This is

your year-to- date 10ear trend. So, it's

great, but it is a symptom of a

weakening labor market and a Fed that's

realizing or hopefully waking up to the

idea that, oh, we're going to have to

we're going to have to do some work here

to prevent some serious damage. Uh, now,

hey, look, I mean, don't don't call me

uh, you know, someone who's just the

perma bear. I've got exposure to the

stock market, too. Uh, but what we

really want and so I'm by no means

looking for like a bad number tomorrow.

I personally think best case scenario,

give us anything 40 and above. 40 and

above and and like I'm going down. You

know, yesterday I said give us 60 and

above. I didn't get it. So now I'm going

to reduce my expectations. I'm going to

go guys guys just just give us 40 and

above and if we get 40 and above it's

fine. People are going to be like this

fine that's just the new break even

rate. You know that's where Waller is

going to go guys this is a really bad

break even rate and then people will

have complaints and stuff about that.

But I will say Parker Loss had a great

thread here. Uh, and I've been on X

very, very little lately, but the things

that have gotten fed just in the few

minutes I've been on have been great. I

mean, we broke down Challenger this

morning and Parker did a great uh chart

piece here. So, what they did is they

compared the precoid trend to where we

sit now with layoffs. And you can see

that layoffs are substantially higher

than where we sat precoid. So kind of

like I mean here are the Doge cuts big

spike but those post Doge cuts are

definitely well elevated above what we

saw in 22 3 and four and above co

precoid. So not great in terms of job

cuts could be a normalization still

because of all that excess hiring after

COVID and then of course you know AI is

obviously helping as well. I mean, just

with technology, I feel like my uh, you

know, office is for house, we're able to

do so much more with technology today

than we've ever been able to do before.

It's it's really really exciting to us.

Uh, and and we just feel like we're

we're happy because we're so much more

productive members of of sort of our

economy with fewer labor expenses. This

is great. Uh, now for some finer details

that aren't as widely reported.

Challenger also reports announced hiring

plans every month. So we can compare

those to pre-COVID norms. Announced

hiring plans obviously extremely low

over here. Uh and then uh that was kind

of it in terms of the enthusiasm that he

had here. Of course, labor force

participation. Other people are

circulating charts of labor force

participation declining. Some of this is

an aging society. Some of this is

immigration. You know, it's always very

difficult to bet against America. Uh and

so this is why I always say get coupon

code bullish catalyst and join me in

those alpha reports. Remember, you get

lifetime access all the new lectures

coming out on building your wealth at

the end of the month. Uh and our top 10

stocks to buy for the next 10 years. So,

join us over there. But, uh hey, good

luck tomorrow. I'm optimistic. Just

anything above 40, man. And and we could

get yields trending down a little bit.

We confirm the 25. Maybe we even price

in a little bit of 50, we're good. We

get a negative number, we're definitely

getting 50. We hell, we could even get

emergency cuts. We get a negative

number. Anyway, I'll be live tomorrow. I

love you all. Have a great

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.