Federal Reserve GDP Shock *JUST OUT*.

I'm blown away by what the Atlanta Fed

just released. But you've got to know

why. What just happened just happened.

And more important news though, isn't

this weird? Look, look how orange this

is. And then like not I told you I'd

have the beard to make it more orange

and less I don't know what to do. Okay.

It's like it's like I'm infected with

the MAGA coming over or something. But

at least now I think we could say I'm

like 5149, you know, like ma mga not

MAGA. I don't know which half do we

want, which one's I don't know. Anyway,

look, here's the thing. The Atlanta Fed

just came out with a crazy GDP number.

We need to talk about it. I also want to

tell you what Barclays just reported uh

about July. And then, of course, we'll

touch on uh some of the PCE numbers,

Chicago PMIs, and some of the others. I

do want to mention that uh I want you to

pay attention to this. I think this is

this is a big trade. Now, I mentioned

this in this is a snippet up here of the

alpha report. I'll just leave that right

here. But what I mentioned this morning

out of uh my trades, the the the trade

that I really wanted to pay attention

today to today was Cororeweave because I

wrote, "If Cororeweave holds 1054, it

could rock it. If the cues fall off a

cliff, obviously be cautious, but

Cororeweave feels apparently per traders

to be somewhat immune from tariff drama

thanks to data center overspending. We

all know that I'm I I'm of the mindset

that a lot of the data center spending

is is a little euphoric at this point,

but that's okay. uh core is a

beneficiary of that. And in the

meantime, take a look at this. We got a

triple bounce at the 10544 level, which

is remarkable because we released this

alpha report in the pre-market. Uh and

uh you know, right now we've been

bobbing between four and 5% up and I

think there's a shot this one could keep

going. So, I'd watch for Coree to

potentially get back to all-time highs.

Though, be careful. I don't think it's a

longtime hold. I actually think it's a

longtime bag holder. Uh but if you get

under 40, just know Nvidia buys under

40, at least until they spend 250

million on it. So that's what keeps a

put option in place for coreweave.

Really interesting uh play in that

sense. So mind you, uh we are raising

the prices today on the alpha report. Uh

that'll be tonight at 11:59 p.m. Try it

for 30 days. You can go to meek.com, try

it for 30 days. If you don't like it,

cancel it. If you like it, you keep

renewing. You get in for less than a

couple bucks a day. But once the price

goes up, uh you will be able to lock in

that low price if you sign in early or

sign up early. If you wait, you can't

get that old price anymore. You're stuck

at the higher uh prices without a

coupon. Uh okay, so we need to look at

what's going on with this GDP thing

because this

GDP ch uh from the Atlanta Fed is

absolutely wild. Take a look at it here.

The Atlanta Fed is currently forecasting

that we are growing our GDP in Q2 at

3.8%. Now, this looks

like this was a big oopsy dupsy

dupydoodle and this was a big oh my

gosh, everything's going great,

skyrocketing. I want you to be very,

very cautious about overreading these

Atlanta Fed GDP reads. Here's why.

real personal consumption expenditures

growth, in other words, what people are

actually spending actually declined from

3.7% to 3.3%. So, we had a shrinkage of

what people are actually spending on,

which is GDP negative. And domestic

investment growth went

from.2 to

-1.4. For a GDP calc, this is actually a

really big negative drag. Okay, then why

is this chart going up, Kevin? Because

the yellow, and I'll even make it green.

The now cast of the contribution of net

exports to second quarter real GDP

growth increased from negative.64 to

1.5%. 1.45%. Okay, let me translate that

to English. Basically

GDP were not looking good when all of a

sudden we had our trade war and we were

importing a whole lot of stuff. That's

because imports are subtracted from GDP.

So imagine GDP is just 100 and every

month you import 10. Okay. Well then

your GDP is 90. Okay, cool. GDP is 90

because we're subtracting out that 10.

Well, if all of a sudden imports are 50,

GDP tanks because, you know, everybody

was front running the tariffs. Now

people are overstocked. They don't have

to import as much. So, our level of

imports goes down, which means we are

subtracting less from that 100 number.

It actually might look like we're like

positive now because e net exports went

positive. We exported more than we

imported. That's basically what it's

saying. That's not going to last.

So the girration's super low on GDP like

we analyzed then not only gold imports

but also imports is probably

artificially low. Now we're on the

artificially high side. So be careful of

people on social doing the oh look

everything's great. Be careful of that.

Also I think Barclays puts together a

very interesting argument. I'm going to

read you what they write here really

quick because I think it's it's

incredible. Uh I think they put it very

succinctly, should I say. And I'm all

for saving your time and respecting your

time. The biggest risks in July stem

from the long list of major events

including the end of the pause of

tariffs, Q2 earnings, the meeting of the

FOMC and the BOJ. Okay, fine. Continuing

on here.

They are concerned that once we get Q2

earnings in

July and we have no idea what the heck

is going on with tariffs that earnings

could really be hit hard in Q2. Remember

that most of the earnings we are getting

right now actually basically all of them

are still Q1 numbers. So January,

February, March. Who had a bad January,

February, March? Not a lot of folks.

You're coming into the new year. A lot

of enthusiasm, new presidency,

inauguration, no tariffs yet.

Everything's great. Oh no, tariffs are

coming. Okay, pull forward demand. So

Barclays is pretty right on to say that.

So they're really nervous about the

second half of the year. Rightfully so,

I believe. Actually, I'm sorry I keep

saying Barclays. This is actually a BNY

piece. They say we see a lack of

significant long positioning and an

ongoing rise in the VIX for July as

evidence that investors are now aware of

the risks ahead. Our own flows for

borrowing in the US show that sector

shorts are near historic highs with the

highest being energy and consumer

discretionary and then followed by tech

and others. So this is really

interesting. They also say that we might

be in a period of consolidation right

now following the big rally that we have

as we start getting kind of nervous

about July coming up. But now we have

this new problem that we have to worry

about. No, it's not stagflation because

even the super core PCE numbers came in

negative today. First time we've had

negative since COVID. So, a 4-year low

on inflation. It's probably too soon to

actually expect to see price increases.

So, I think the Fed's just going to look

through this and be like, "Ah, too soon

for us to care about low inflation. You

know, the tariff price inflation might

not hit until Q3, second half of the

year." It's

true. But what does it suggest right

now? Well, that low PCE read, that low

core inflation read right now is going

to drum up a lot more resentment and

frustration against the Federal Reserve.

And then the Fed is going to go, well,

we need it certainty on tariffs. But

what are we getting with tariffs? Less

certainty than we even had 3 days ago.

Okay, look at

it. 3 days ago, we're like, "All right,

Trump's negotiating deals. So far, we

have one deal with a surplus country and

no other deals. But it's okay because

come July 9th, we're going to magically

have all these deals and everything's

going to be hunky dory. We're going to

probably be in a better place than we

are now because then at least even if

tariffs are slightly higher, we'll know

what the rules are and everything will

be fine. We could finally base our

business decisions around some kind of

certainty by July 9th. So July 9th was

supposed to be a certainty providing

date. Well, now because of this uh

international trade court issue, we are

in a place where Donald Trump is lashing

out, which I suggested would be a risk

factor. You know, I hoped that Donald

Trump would just walk away from this.

But obviously now with a stay, he's not

going to. If he loses the stay, loses

that case, I really hope he walks away

because that would be the most bullish

thing ever. Unfortunately, now we're

getting the lash out. This morning, he

lashed out against China and how they're

cheating. He's lashing out against

courts for being these unele unelected

arbiters of trade policy. They're

hurting his negotiations. Now he's

lashing out, his admins lashing out,

threatening to use various different

arcane methods within the tax codes to

try to find a way to scramble together

the tariffs that they want. Maybe even

worse tariffs. Now, maybe it's all part

of the art of the deal. Fine. But at

least in the meantime, the art of

business is like, we just went from

having a certainty that we would have a

resolution by July 9th or at least

assigned tariffs if there were no deals

to crap, whatever Donald Trump does now

might get overthrown and then he'll just

lash out and use some other weird

strategy or tear off a different product

to try to get what he wants. This is not

ideal. It creates more uncertainty and

unfortunately that sort of uncertainty

with high valuations combined makes it a

risky time to invest. if tariffs went

away like yesterday morning were like oh

no tariffs that's bullish you know

people like oh you know like it's it's a

small percentage of like vocal

commenters that

Kevin it's like the dumbest thing to say

because if tariffs are gone you should

be

bullish if tariffs are what they were

before I don't know maybe you're neutral

you know 3 days ago if tariffs are worse

you should be bearish

ish. It's it's it's simply responding to

the disaster that we're dealing with in

in environments. But then again, you

know, who cares? Everybody could do what

they want. Yeah. I actually think if

you're a buy the dipper, you might

actually have another buy the dip coming

because of this now massive increase of

uncertainty. So, we literally went from

elevated uncertainty to, oh my gosh,

this is so bullish. Less uncertainty.

Yay, the tariffs might be going away to

courts stay. Ah, it's not over yet. Uh

oh, Trump's lashing out. More

uncertainty. Sucks. It really sucks. But

the good news is you could still invest

in house hack and diversify. By the way,

thank you to all those of you who have

been. As soon as you invest, you get

your 5% yield. It occurs every day from

the day you invest, which is great. You

know, it takes a bit for you to get your

account set up and your monthly payments

to start coming to you, but it's kind of

awesome because once the monthly

payments are set up for you, they're on

autopay. So, you know, people are

getting their direct deposits every

month from their 5% investment at House

Hack. Uh, and it's great. You know, you

get that 5% yield through conversion.

Read more about it at househack.com.

Then you get all the upside in the

stock. We only convert if the valuation

goes up. Uh, and uh, yeah, check it out

over at househack.com. We're we're

really excited about it. It's open to

nonacredited investors. Now, what else?

Well, there's also talk that Elon Musk

is uh, having some self-driving Teslas

around Austin, Texas. And apparently,

some of these tests are going well. I'm

actually really happy to hear that. I

don't think robo taxes are going to be

as profitable as folks are hoping, but

that sounds really bullish for their

robo taxi technology. Now, maybe we'll

see more as Donald Trump uh you know, so

we get this certainty with tariffs and

we see what happens with the big

beautiful bill because there's also now

talk about the big beautiful bill

potentially getting uh scrapped and some

people are talking about like rewriting

it. I don't think that'll happen, but

there'll be a lot of changes from the

Senate and some of the energy policies,

including cutting all these tax credits

for batteries and and uh you know, other

you know, solar or green energy uh

items. Some of these things might end up

coming back in the Senate version of the

bill, which then has to be reconciled

obviously. But anyway, could be

interesting. Uh you know, I know some

people are like, is it time to buy the

dip on end phase yet? I've been saying

for a while that and I I mean for at

least two years that if you're going to

hold NPhase, it's cheap, but it's a crap

stock in high interest rate environment.

Said the same thing over and over again

for like two years now. It is a very

cheaply valued stock. But then again,

its growth keeps getting kicked down the

road, which is bad. Now, I've also said

that if we go into a recession, and I've

been saying this since the middle of

last year, Nphase could go to 35. What's

crazy is NFS actually went to 37 without

the recession and that's because of this

tax plan. So, we'll see if there's no

recession and the tax plan brings back

some of these tax benefits. Maybe that

finally creates a bottom. But if we get

a recession, look out below. Sucks. The

good news is the company is a very high

profit margin company when they do sell

products. But then again, we need rates

to come down for people to actually care

because they're comparing it to their

utility rates. That's always a

challenge. Anyway, if you want to see

the stocks that I'm interested in, make

sure you get the Alpha Report. Coupon

expires tonight. If you got any

questions, email us at staffbeam.com.

Thanks so much for watching. We'll see

you in the next one. Goodbye. Good luck.

Have a great weekend. Why not advertise

these things that you told us here? I

feel like nobody else knows about this.

We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Pra there,

financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet

Kevin. Always great to get your take.