There are Reasons to be Bullish (Again).

okay it's time for bullish Kevin no this isn't a flip-flop or capitulation I'm

still 29 on the bare bull scale uh however there are reasons to observe

light at the end of the tunnel and I'm going to start with a piece from uh UBS

this is uh just a short little preface uh and then I want to look at the core

uh problems with the economy at least in the eyes of the Federal Reserve uh as

well as some uh tariff talk so we'll talk about those three things briefly uh

UBS argues that uh well there has been negativity around AI chip deployment

because of Microsoft's sort of rejiggering of data center leases and

otherwise the latest and most advanced chips are still the most cost effective

uh per query on the most uh complex artificial intelligence tasks these

tasks are tasks that really Blackwell style chips or the latest and greatest

excel in uh and they actually are are a thesis that UBS uses to argue

the chip sector may actually after this large discount it's just gone through be

relatively fairly valued uh and potentially overly sold now they say

neutrally valued right now and I kind of agree with that uh in fact if I look at

Nvidia I'm seeing it at a one two Peg not bad for the forward 12 month if I

look at AMD it's it's even lower it's ridiculous it's it's shocking how

inexpensive AMD is right now uh you also sort of look at the chip sector as what

it's done price action Wise It's remarkable I mean AMD has been straight

down since uh April or sorry March of 2024 it's been literally a year of

straight down and collapsing 50% in value Nvidia has peaked out roughly

after the election here right around inauguration day at 153 it's down a

pretty good chunk since then and there are plenty of other opportunities I mean

28% on Nvidia it's remarkable for for a company that makes as much money as they

do now a company like Tesla is still relatively expensive sitting at a three

peg but it's also come down substantially in valuation and a lot of

this valuation is representative of Hope around Robo taxis and uh and and uh

frankly artificial intelligence built into Optimus robots uh so there are some

really interesting opportunities even in spaces like Beauty where things have

actually gotten cheap so it's you know sometimes easy to miss good

opportunities because every everybody's just it's popular to be bearish and

negative about the economy right now so it's easy to sort of be blind to good

opportunities like the Behemoth rocket mortgage is creating or this potential

sectoral bottom in Ulta uh not only Ulta with its partnership in Beauty with

Target uh but the closing of Sephora stores because of their you know

incorporation into coals which is suffering and Lauren actually had a

really good points on point on on the uh Sephora CO's partnership she never

really understood that partnership lord it's my wife mind you mother of my seven

kids uh Ulta matches Target's demographic and

she sees an alignment with those Brands whereas when you look at Sephora owned

by Brookshire Hathaway in Kohl's you're actually taking a more premium makeup

brand and putting it into a lower income store so you have a complete demographic

mismatch uh but Kohl's is shutting down stores because of their own failures but

it's taking down Sephoras with it which actually creates less competition for

Ulta very interesting sort of thesis but my point is there there are actually

opportunities popping up and we're talking about these daily in the course

member live stream this morning we were talking about various different

companies we're like oh my gosh you know absent the drama that's going on with

tariffs here's some really incredible value opportunities we're growing our

list daily where we're like this is incredible there are real stock market

opportunities here and should we not go into a recession

these are buying opportunities uh now of course you know you have to weigh those

buying opportunities by your belief as to whether or not there is going to be a

recession and that's where this next part of discussion regarding the Federal

Reserve I think will help you now keep in mind uh when we talk about these

these numbers here with the Federal Reserve I want you to know I'm open to

working with you daily and and working like we work together on this in our

course member live streams we do this over what three to four thousand of you

watch every single day if you're not part of it yet check it out go to me

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tuned and check that out go to kevin.com to sign up for that but let's for right

now talk for a moment about what the Federal Reserve pays attention to so

Austin ghoul told us that usually when the job Market

opens uh or or sort of I shouldn't say opens normalizes it doesn't start like

it doesn't suddenly stop its decline it just keeps descending until you're in a

recessionary environment which isn't great however if we look at the job

openings chart with the latest jolt sta that we got for February still a little

dated you know it's from February but still plot this on a chart look at

what's look at what's happened this is very

unusual rather than job openings continuing to plummet into recession

we've actually started to level off which is weird because we're leveling

off right at that 1 job openings to job uh to those unemployed that is odd jome

Powell says the one Saving Grace we have in our economy right now is the fact

that layoffs have not spiked yet and that jolt stat is leveling off this is

what Austin gouby told us was unlikely to happen but it is happening now it's

possible it could have started happening in October in anticipation of trump in

November in excitement over Trump and in December and January over excitement of

trump and then a pull forward of tariffs making businesses keep their employees

because they're too busy I know people who haven't bought a new car for 15

years tariffs pushed them over the edge I'm going to buy a car because tariffs

are going to make everything more expensive you've actually had a

fantastic coupon code expiration because of the Tariff drama that has created a

pull forward for a lot of fantastic businesses keeping now their employees

building up inventory and also pushing sales through best sales quarter in

years for the automotive industry not including Tesla uh for for a q1

absolutely fantastic sell through now this is

fantastic for businesses uncertainty is it but uncertainty can Wan rapidly see

usually what happens with sort of the Trump drama is you buy the dip on this

stuff you buy the dip because generally Trump ends up coming out going oh you

know we had we were going to do 10% 15% and 20% on different sectors and

countries but you know then Canada folded just this morning we already

heard Canadian Premier um Ford from the Ontario Province suggest we're open to

removing all tariffs going to full free trade I wholeheartedly like if I if

there was a Ki chart maybe there is where I could just bet will we be at

free trade by the end of the decade my answer would

be 100% yes and I would put money on it because

really either Donald Trump is going to bring us back to free trade maybe even

lower free trade like more free trade right because we weren't truly at 100%

free trade there were still some minor tariffs you know most countries had

about 1 and a half% tariffs uh in aggregate on each other so if we bring

those net lower then Trump actually declares Victory he brought us back to

free trade now the problem with that is the seductive nipple if you will of $600

billion of potential annual tax revenue is not going to work out anymore if we

go right back to free trade which is going to create some potential problems

for you know Trump's idea of of collecting that $600 billion in revenue

and removing taxes on those making under $150,000 a year but most people didn't

really find that to be highly reasonable reasonably realistic anyway more of a

sales pitch for Trump

so if we do return to free trade by the end of the decade then and we don't get

a sort of ignition of the spilled gasoline that's in the economy right now

via some form of shock Black Monday Leman Brothers collapse basis trade

collapse carry trade collapse or or some Black Swan we're not paying attention to

we're seeing right now unless we have some form of a shock the leveling that's

happening right now in the labor market is fantastic and it is actually plays

right into what the Federal Reserve wants now there's some implications for

that uh the implications are that maybe we're at a peak fear moment or maybe we

will be at Peak fear over the next few days as there's a lot of volatility that

comes from uh sort of tariff negotiations negotiations and counter

tariffs we'll see uh we'll we'll know that over the next month uh but there

are opportunities in the stock market and the labor market so far is behaving

the way the Federal Reserve wants which is non-recessionary now that doesn't

mean it can't flip rapidly the labor market lags we know that so I do think

there's a time like we are in a time for caution like cautious optimism uh and

and staying out of debt and diversification but as we resolve these

tariff issues I actually think people are going to take the money that they

started saving and start deploying it you know we're seeing people diversify

and they're like hey I've got this bundle of cash right now I'm going to

put a little bit into house hack because you guys are doing the reg a and and

you've got big things coming great that's awesome that's cool thank you for

that go to house act.com read about that if you want

uh you know you get paid 5% upside protection if our stock 10 X's you get

the full 10x baby it's great uh and you get downside protection it's awesome

like and you're getting a 5% annual yield I I think it's a steal and we're

doing it because we want to take care of our course Members First so that knock

on wood we can do what we want to do and blow this company up over time the

course members are the ones who won the most before Wall Street got in is like

oh wow what they're doing is actually really cool because you know that's when

things become unaffordable that's when things newss backs which you know we

know that's way overvalued we we know that's a momentum play right now there's

a reason it's down 53% today because the momentum is dying which we also talked

about in the alpha report this morning Alpha report this morning I'm like the

momentum is over get out of Newsmax two days ago or was it yesterday morning I'm

like today is a momentum day for Newsmax damn thing doubled or doubled up that is

in the alpha report you can go fact check it course members are getting that

every single day if you're having an issue getting access to it make sure you

check out uh um uh or just email us at staff ofme kevin.com if you have a

problem but you should have access to it this morning I sent quote you could fact

check me on this Newsmax momentum may be over today it's 10x over valued so watch

out below momentum over so look at what's happened today

it's over over okay you open at 184 you had

plenty of an opportunity to get out it's haved because it was a momentum play we

all know that that's fine but it's the same thing we said in the alpha report

about Tesla if we break out of this uh uh 260 Zone we're probably going up to

the 274 range which we did and we bounced there twice and then of course

we got the Elon Musk step down from Doge news which has pushed us even further

which is remarkable for a day that Tesla sales Miss but we already knew that the

reason you get this sort of Bounce is because we already knew about the bad

sales data and now it's over the same thing could happen with the ter news now

the big thing for me is three-fold one look for Great Value great deals you

know me I'm a real estate wedge deal buyer I like deals I like deals and

stocks too even if they if their patience

plays the jobs market look at what's going on with layoffs and War notices

this is an interesting one we haven't talked about this yet in the video but

it's worth paying attention to if you look at warn notices warn notices are a

record low right now now they're somewhat if you annualize them out War

notices are somewhat similar to where we have been in years before some of this

re recent You Know Drama take a look at this chart right here it looks really

low right here but you really have to annualize the 72 * 4 which puts you at

about 288,000 layoffs but that's really in line with 24 it's lower than 23 it's

higher than 22 obviously but it's in line with 2016 17 18 and 19

so you're really not seeing this sort of huge movement in layoffs uh if you go to

the layoff trackers as well you're seeing the same thing with tech layoff

trackers we're just not seeing an explosion that you would expect to see

in a recessionary environment in Tech layoffs again of course we could see uh

this this um you know moment of uh government workers say 300,000

government workers get laid off two extra non-government workers workers get

laid off after those government workers get laid off so you're at 900k

unemployed sure that's potentially going to lead to a half% increas in the

unemployment rate but ironically the lack of immigration coming

in means you potentially have fewer like a smaller supply of workers anyway and

I'm not necessarily saying that immigrants were able to take the same

jobs that could be impacted by the federal government there's probably a

mismatch there but this idea that uh that we definitely have to go through a

layoff cycle I don't I don't know I think there is the potential that

artificial intelligence makes it really hard to get jobs back once we're in the

next recession we don't know when that's going to be uh but it's also very

possible that we're not actually going to see such substantial layoffs because

of AI people are just enhancing their productivity and the profits for the

large companies they working for with artificial intelligence the next

recession will be painful for that but uh but not yet so all of what I'm

describing here gives me reason to be bullish and uh makes me very curious

about buying the dip on especially certain sectors like the ones we've been

talking about this morning in the course of live so join that if you haven't yet

I'd love to see you there and folks we're going to see you soon

because we're going to keep bringing the updates I'm glad to be back in the

office here regularly so thank you so much for being here folks and we'll see

you in the next one goodbye and good luck why not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else knows about about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get your take