Fmr. General Petraeus on the ‘big mistake’ Iran’s military is making

The Gulf states

wanted to stay out of it, as Brett said.

So they did not even allow us

to use their bases in a number of cases.

Now they're into it.

They've been attacked

and not just our bases,

but civilian areas as well.

Now that Iran's supreme leader is gone,

the question on everyone's

mind, both in the Middle East

and here in the U.S. is what comes next?

Here with me now is retired U.S.

Army General David Petraeus and former

presidential special envoy Brett McGurk.

It's an honor to have you both here.

We are at the wall

because I think

it will really help people understand,

what we have seen

and what we're going to see next.

And I'll start with you,

General Petraeus, in terms of the strike

targets inside Iran, what were U.S.

forces able and Israeli

forces able to get?

And what do you think

they're going for next?

Well, of course,

this is a massive operation.

There were hundreds of Israeli aircraft,

hundreds of American aircraft,

hundreds of cruise missiles

coming out of ships, submarines

and so forth.

And the focus the Israelis,

it appears, was largely

on the regime leaders.

And, of course,

they had extraordinary success

in taking out the supreme leader

and a number of the other

most important figures in the regime.

Really quite stunning.

In fact,

it's particularly stunning

that the arrogance of the Iranians,

that they all gathered together

for meetings,

presuming that we didn't attack

in the early morning hours

like we normally do,

and therefore

they had a period of daylight

during which they could come together

and talk.

The U.S., meanwhile, was going largely

after the

air and ballistic missile defenses

that are left in Iran,

and then the missile

and other retaliatory capabilities.

And again, keep in mind

that there were hundreds of targets

by each of the Israeli and U.S.

forces.

So a really extraordinary amount

of ordnance

being dropped and going in as cruise

missiles as well.

And it appears to have been very,

very devastating in a lot of ways,

but still

always an ability to retaliate

with both a longer range

that could reach Israel

and then the shorter range

of which they have a substantial number

that can reach across the Gulf.

Yeah. I mean, and we're seeing that happen.

We just were reporting on devastation

in Beach Harbor,

which is outside of Jerusalem.

That's a that's a pretty big target.

And what does that tell you about

what is still left?

Well, Ronnie, an Arsenal. Sure.

We should understand that

even in the 12 day war,

with all of the ballistic

missile and air defenses

that we assembled,

and they were very considerable,

and we've done it again.

Now, it's

not just the Patriots

in the terminal high altitude air

defense systems

that are on the ground,

but also all the ships have Patriot

like systems.

There are planes flying

to try to take out missiles and drones

and so forth.

So this is a

it's a very, very comprehensive effort.

And it's all integrated

with the host nations and with Israel,

to be sure.

But even then,

5 to 7% of the missiles

got through during the 12 day war.

And if they hit unfortunately,

as the one did,

that you reported on earlier,

there can be a pretty big amount

of devastation.

And then, Brett,

what does it tell you

about the fact that Iran is retaliating

the way it is

when it comes to

who's actually in charge now?

It's a great question.

George Kennan,

a great diplomat, said war

once initiated,

has a momentum of its own.

You don't know exactly

where it's going to go.

I think over Iran right now.

Very importantly,

look, the United States

and Israel has complete

not just air superiority

but air dominance,

and they're still targeting leaders.

This is still going on.

We're still doing waves of strikes.

So whoever might

step up into a leadership

role is very vulnerable.

The Iranians have announced

they have a constitutional process.

Remember, they've only had one succession

in their entire history since 1979.

So this is really uncharted territory.

They have a succession process

under their constitution,

a council of the president,

the chief justice

and a cleric to be named.

That's

they say, who's running the country now?

But those people haven't been seen.

Ali Larijani,

who's a key advisor to the supreme leader

for many decades,

he's likely making some decisions

for us, seeing Iran do.

They're firing off missiles.

This was probably a pre-cooked plan

for when they were attacked.

It's unclear

who is making strategic decisions,

and they're making some mistakes,

or they're attacking

in civilian areas of the Gulf

and the Gulf states,

the GCC states

there, UAE,

Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia are uniting.

And I would watch this

over the coming days.

Do they actually their air forces

are now engaged in defense.

Do they actually join in some attacks

into Iran in self-defense?

I think that's a key question.

That was not,

I think, on my, bingo card

when this started.

I think the Gulf wanted

to stay out of it.

They're being drawn in.

So that's something

to watch over the coming.

Big mistake,

I think actually down to because again,

the Gulf states

that the

that they

have been attacking the Gulf states,

the Gulf states

wanted to stay out of it, as Brett said.

So they did not even allow us

to use their bases in a number of cases.

Now they're into it.

They've been attacked in

not just our basis,

but civilian areas as well.

And so they're going to take place

now with the,

defensive measures, as it were mentioned.

We have aircraft in the sky now.

I'm sure they're being integrated

by the commander Operation Center.

And if that continues,

they're going to probably

take further measures.

I want to talk about the chaos

and instability

in the region,

obviously militarily,

but also economically.

I mean, we see the Strait of Hormuz,

which is right there.

I mean, that's a key

geographical location

for a lot of these countries.

Well, 20% of global

trade, you know, 80% of Iran's oil,

of course, goes to Asia and China.

China has a big interest here.

And I have one geostrategic issue.

Russia and China are very quiet here.

And of course, they're very much part

strategic partners of Iran, very quiet.

I think that's very telling.

Yeah. We would expect when oil markets open,

the price of oil is going to go up,

I think fairly significantly.

We'll see.

OPEC met today.

They announced

they're going to be

increasing production.

But look think about escalation dominance

in a conflict like this.

If Iran makes moves

in the Straits of Hormuz

as are threatening,

they targeted some tankers. Today U.S.

air forces have escalation

dominance here.

We can target Iran wherever we want.

So Iran has to be calculating that

to the extent Iranian leaders

are even thinking strategically,

they seem to be just

firing off their missiles

without a strategic plan.

And that shows real disarray

in their chain of command.

Yeah, maybe as a result of all the

leaders taken out,

they're just acting on this decision.

That they were authorized before.

But again,

20% of the world's crude oil

and 20% of the world's

liquefied natural

gas come right through the strait.

There's already a report

that the traffic is down

by some 50 to 70%.

And then, as mentioned,

there was a ship attack right in here.

And that's going to

America's announced

that they're stopping going

through here and also,

through the strait that the Houthis have,

disrupted in the past.

They're, of course,

an Iranian surrogate as well.

So we'll we'll see in effect.

But it likely

will be a short term effect.

It will not be enduring

unless there's

some really significant escalation

sea mining of the Strait of Hormuz

that for some reason,

requires longer than normal.

To clear.

Joining us now to discuss is CNN

global Affairs

analyst Kimberly Dozier

and CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton.

Cedric, I want to go to

you first on this news

we got from Nic Robertson

that Saudi Arabia is now authorized

to get involved in this conflict.

I mean, things seem to really be

escalating here. What are your thoughts?

Yeah, that's absolutely right, Pamela.

And good morning to you again.

There is a,

you know,

a real relationship here

that is very intricate,

you know, between the Saudis

on the one hand, and the other countries

that they're dealing with

and especially Iran on what, you know,

sometimes you have the Iranians

and the Saudis reach a real small

that rapprochement is definitely

over at this particular point in time.

There are reports that MBS, the crown

prince of Saudi

Arabia, had actually secretly agreed

to let

this operation go forward

without using Saudi airspace.

But even without using Saudi

airspace,

Iran is still

getting the Saudis involved,

attacking Saudi facilities,

attacking Gulf state

facilities of countries

like Qatar and Bahrain and the UAE.

And that is something

that is really, angering the Saudis

and their Gulf Cooperation

Council partners,

which those other countries are part of.

So this is definitely a point

in which things are escalating.

And it is very clear that the Saudis,

are not happy with what Iran is doing,

can help us understand

why Iran is attacking the Gulf states,

because one might think doing

that would further isolate themselves,

and it could backfire.

I mean, it's going beyond

just the military bases

in those countries.

You know, this was

something that Gulf leaders

had warned of

in the run up

to any potential military action.

They have a number of U.S.

targets in them, both the U.S.

bases, but also U.S.

commercial interests.

And the fact of the matter

is that Gulf

countries have tried to walk this,

narrow line of being,

Iran's ally or at least a partner

to Iran on one side

and trading with them

and also allowing these very large U.S.

military bases

to operate in their territory.

So they always knew

they were going to be in the firing line.

One of the other things

that's happened

because of this

ongoing warfare

and targeting of some of the ports

is that container ships and,

oil tankers

have basically dropped anchor,

and there are hundreds

frozen at various points along the Gulf,

the Strait of Hormuz,

waiting for some of this to die down.

If one of those would somehow get struck

by collateral, fire.

That's a it's dangerous environmentally.

It's also, it's eventually going

to affect global oil prices.

Now, we've heard

that oil producers are going to, increase

the amount of oil on the market

for a short period of time

in response to the warfare,

but soon Americans

and others could be feeling

the results of this war

in their pocketbook.

Could take a few weeks.

But this is not done yet in terms of

the targets being struck.