Watch BEFORE the Fed FOMC Meeting Today.

hey everyone me Kevin here we need to

discuss Jerome Powell and the Federal

Reserve the meeting is in a few hours by

the time you're watching this it could

be in a few minutes right your clock or

the time down 11:00 a.m. Pacific time

that's 2: p.m. eastern time okay

calculated if you're different time zone

what do we need to pay attention to this

my friends this right here this is the

summary of economic projections from

September we are going to get a new one

right now markets believe markets are

convinced that Jerome Powell is just

going to tell us look we're going to be

down at dependent we're going to punt

this meeting we're not going to say

anything this is why we have to parse

the meeting this is why we have to pay

attention to the meeting because there

are two things that are going to happen

number one right at 11 we're going to

get the sumary of economic projections

number two we're going to get drone

pow's commentary on it usually drone

pow's commentary is very powerful

because we could see numbers on the

summary of economic projections which

I'll give you my

projections and then you get your own

Pal's commentary in terms of which way

he leans so let's take a look at this

these are my projections so first I

think they're going to cut

the change in Real GDP down a little bit

from their 1.5% projection the reason I

believe that is drone P had two count of

two chances to go all hockey docky docky

locky on us and he did not choose to go

hockey doy on us

instead he chose to stay neutral which

is oh you know well we may raise rates

if we need to and no real Hawking even

though Financial conditions are

loosening

in addition to that well as a result of

that rather I should say I think drum

Powell is starting to suspect along with

the FED that GDP might start trending

weaker than it has been if you look at

the Atlanta fed now real GDP indicator

which we get our next read on that

tomorrow where the current read is about

1.2% GDP read for Q4 I actually think

we're going to see that revision to 1.2%

for the entire 2024 forecast so that's

going to mean weaker GDP

that could be bad for some stocks in the

short term because it does potentially

mean weaker earnings so 1.2 on GDP I

don't want to see a handle under one

that would be bad for the stock market I

do think we're going to see a bias up on

the unemployment rate uh probably move

that up from 4.1 to maybe 4.2 or 4.3 if

they goes any higher than that it would

be problematic so any kind of move like

four and a half back to the June

projections we don't want to see pce

inflation I actually think they're going

to take a tenth off of the projections

on both of these remember these are

average projections of all of the

different voting board members so uh

it's not like it's coordinated or maybe

it is and they just tell us that it's

not then we since after all it is a

messaging tool remember drone po calls

the summary of economic projections a

snapshot in time and a messaging tool at

that time and if it's a messaging tool

and you control the sheet you know you

could theoretically be like hey man the

average is coming out to five Bard I

need you to come in a little lower so

this average comes in at 49 you got it

oh wow I've changed my opinion you

wouldn't be surprised but anyway I think

we're going to go for a 4.9 on the FED

funds rate that will signal one to two

cuts uh remember that the current rate

that we have is

5.375 that's the midpoint of the lower

of the upper bound and so if you take

5.375 minus .5 you get 4.87 5 which

basically rounds up to 4.9 that would

mean the FED is pricing in two cuts for

next year markets are pricing in four

last week markets were pricing in five

so obviously anything less than 49 would

be bullish mostly because the FED nobody

really thinks the fed's going to go

super doish here if we get a doish Fed

it's going to kind of be like you're

either really convinced on inflation or

you're starting to panic okay then

obviously we've got to parse what jome

Powell says I don't think we're going to

hear anything on opportunistic

disinflation I thought of an analogy I

kind of think of opportunistic

disinflation as kind of like uh

opportunistic weight loss it's kind of

like let's say you're trying to lose

weight uh and then then you know you're

working hard and it kind of feels sticky

like your weight's stuck it's stuck and

then it moves down a little bit and it's

sticky sticky sticky and it moves down

like this opportunistic weight loss is

like because I feel slightly under the

weather right now you you get sick or

like you have salmonella or the stomach

flu or something like that and then you

just don't feel like eating cuz you

can't keep anything in anyway and then

your weight like

plummets opportunistic weight loss now

just don't

add so uh that that is what the Federal

Reserve basically used as an inflation

policy since uh the early 1980s uh and

the thesis of course was that we could

kind of move with the market Cycles uh

quick note uh I hope to get my house HCK

update video out today with probably

another I want to get two out this week

so stay tuned for that that it's done

editing I want to add some commentary to

that so I'm really excited about that so

stay tuned for that we're killing it

we're doing really really well the wedge

deals are going the construction teams

going everything's firing so it's very

good it's still startup though so

obviously it's you know I'm I'm like

with sandpaper every day like what make

sure that's like that make sure that's

like that you know trying to like finish

the edges it's good like the cybertruck

edges oh uh anyway I I I don't I

wouldn't be surprised for markets to be

very volatile between now and after the

press conference since we really need to

digest what's going on and then of

course we have a flash sale going on

today and tomorrow for the brand new

gold courses we've got a bunch of new

lectures coming out at the end of the

month as well we'll touch a little bit

deeper on some of the stock fundamental

analysis and some of the other

recommendations that you had

specifically for Real Estate a lot of

interest in real estate those new verse

Pro courses so check those out at

meetkevin.com a lot of them already live

appreciate you all for being here good

luck today we'll see you soon why not

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so much people love you people look up

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