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Trump's China Trade Deal is SH9T

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0:00

Oh, little Chinese update here on the

0:03

front page of the Wall Street Journal,

0:05

uh, the digital version. China puts

0:07

six-month limit on its ease of rare

0:10

earth exports. So, remember, here's

0:12

what's going on with the Chinese deal.

0:14

Okay? Scott Bessant made it clear. This

0:16

is not a full deal. We have gotten

0:18

nowhere on the 55% tariffs that we have

0:21

on China and nowhere on China's 10%

0:23

tariffs on us. We've gotten nowhere on

0:25

that. We got a six-month reprieve on

0:27

rare earth export licenses in exchange

0:30

for accepting China students, Chinese

0:32

students in our American universities,

0:34

which Donald Trump on Truth Social says

0:37

he's always been a fan of, even though

0:39

two weeks ago he called them all foreign

0:40

spies, which then, you know, on our live

0:43

stream earlier we had a little bit of a

0:45

debate like where are there more foreign

0:47

spies? Is it the Chinese women that are

0:49

foreign spies that are sleeping with our

0:51

politicians? That has happened. Is it

0:54

former members of the Federal Reserve

0:56

who are leaking secrets to the Chinese?

0:59

That has happened. Or is it students in

1:01

research facilities? I I don't know. I

1:03

don't know. Okay, I'm just saying there

1:04

are leaks everywhere. They're all

1:06

leakers. They all belong in jail. If

1:08

you're a state secret leaker, you belong

1:09

in jail. That said, do I think all

1:11

Chinese students should be punished?

1:12

Probably not. But then again, this is

1:14

part of Trump's negotiations. So, China

1:18

is putting a six-month limit on rare

1:20

earth export licenses for US automakers

1:23

and manufacturers, according to people

1:25

familiar with the matter, giving Beijing

1:27

leverage if trade tensions flare up

1:29

again. Well, remember we have July 9th

1:32

coming up as the end of the uh uh you

1:36

know 90day pause on Liberation Day.

1:38

Chinese negotiators agreed to temporary

1:41

restorations of the licenses after the

1:43

latest rounds of intense talks. So uh

1:46

aimed at upholding an interim agreement

1:47

forged in Geneva. So so far we got a

1:49

little bit on rear earths and we gave

1:51

Chinese students access to here. Okay.

1:53

In exchange we also did relax the sale

1:56

to China of some products such as jet

1:59

engines. Let's see. Prattton Whitney

2:01

does the

2:04

uh Canadian jet engines. So these

2:06

wouldn't be Prattton Whitney jet engines

2:08

which I actually have a model of right

2:09

here. Yeah. Any chance I get, you got to

2:13

make use of the model. It was free. It's

2:16

not a blonde model. I prefer the blonde

2:17

models, but Canadian Pratt and Whitney

2:20

engines over here. Got to dust those

2:22

off. Keep keep the bird clean. Uh, you

2:26

know, we generally have like General

2:29

Electric engines. Anyway, going back to

2:31

the uh piece here, China negotiators

2:34

agreed to temporary restriction. Okay.

2:35

In exchange, we agreed to relax the sale

2:38

of jet engines and related parts such as

2:39

ethane, a component of natural gas.

2:42

details of the framework are still being

2:43

worked out. So these are like very

2:45

limited trade deal negotiations. Mind

2:47

you, nothing about chips so far. Nothing

2:50

on Nvidia or AMD or whatever.

2:54

Beijing wants to keep its choke hold on

2:57

the supply of critical commodities for

2:59

future negotiations. Well, of course

3:01

they do. It's leverage, boys.

3:04

During the London meetings, Jang agreed

3:07

to approve rare earth licenses

3:09

applications for US companies right away

3:11

pending sign off fine. The earliest an

3:14

application could be approved is within

3:16

a week or two of the leaders signing off

3:17

on the deal. Person noted China reserves

3:20

uh the right to approve the applications

3:22

and we will drop counter measures

3:23

including export controls on jet engines

3:25

and ethane. China said full magnets and

3:28

any necessary rare earths will be

3:30

supplied upfront by China. Uh Donald

3:33

Trump happened to leave out from his

3:34

truth social post that this is only a

3:38

sixmonth

3:39

deal which is kind of characteristic of

3:43

Trump not to provide the downsides of

3:45

the deal and only the upsides of the

3:47

deal because the way Trump kind of

3:49

pitches it on his truth social is that

3:52

you know we're winning bigly because you

3:55

know well I mean I'll just show it to

3:56

you. Uh here it is. Our deal with China

3:58

is done. subject to final approval. Full

4:01

magnets, blah blah blah, rare earths,

4:03

whatever. Chinese students uh will get

4:04

to use our colleges, which has always

4:06

been good with me, which is totally the

4:08

opposite of what he said two weeks ago,

4:09

but whatever. We are getting 55% of

4:11

tariffs. China is getting 10%.

4:13

Relationship is excellent. Again, Donald

4:14

Trump's way of sort of bragging about

4:16

like, see, I got the better end of the

4:17

deal. But that's really actually just an

4:19

admission that nothing has actually

4:21

changed

4:23

in terms of the trade deal. Like, the

4:25

trade deal still sucks.

4:27

China's grip on rare earths has become a

4:29

key point of leverage. Beijing in turn

4:30

blamed the Trump administration for

4:32

undermining the Geneva agreement. Uh

4:35

that's right. Both sides kind of argued

4:37

that they were like violating parts of

4:39

the deal. This is a You have to

4:41

understand how limited of a framework

4:43

this is. This does nothing for apparel.

4:45

This does nothing for furniture. This

4:47

does nothing for chips. This does

4:48

nothing for the broad trade of

4:51

everything that we buy and trade with

4:53

China. you know, radios, you know,

4:56

cellular radios. Okay, China. Uh, our

5:00

our iPhones with the broken glass screen

5:02

because some dumbass didn't want to get

5:04

a case for his glass phone. Um, China,

5:08

you know, assembled in China. We all

5:09

already know that, you know, $5. You

5:11

want a $5 calculator put together in

5:14

China. Okay. You want Corsair? That's

5:16

actually a Logitech mouse. Look at this

5:18

sexy Logitech mouse. Okay, they don't

5:20

even make them anymore. This This mouse

5:23

is so sexy. You can't even get them

5:24

anymore. See those MMO buttons? Can't

5:27

even get it anymore. This is beauty. See

5:31

the wire? That's how you know you're a

5:34

real gamer. You know, you know what

5:36

Jeffrey Gonlock's doing? We've just been

5:38

listening to him for quite a while here

5:40

basically bear about how the S&P 500 is

5:43

at unattractive valuations and you know,

5:46

you got to be careful and you want to

5:47

have low leverage. I mean, honestly, I

5:49

kind of don't disagree with him.

5:51

especially in this environment of

5:54

talking about trade and some of the

5:55

trade issues like the institutional

5:57

pieces we talk about uh and we're about

6:00

to talk about again or the institutional

6:03

research that we get on what's

6:06

potentially happening uh with with the

6:09

labor market which we've always talked

6:11

about but we have updates on Jeffrey

6:14

Gunllock though you know I feel like I

6:16

should call him up and ask him to do a

6:19

little sponsorship pitch for house hack

6:21

because he's the perfect pitch man for

6:23

talking about diversification. Like, you

6:25

know,

6:27

my name's Jeffrey. Um, yeah, you know,

6:30

uh, we like low debt companies with no

6:32

bank debt, like House Hack, cuz they're

6:34

diversifying and, uh, you know, you

6:36

don't have that downside debt risk.

6:38

You've got, uh, 5% yield through

6:41

conversion, upside in the stock.

6:43

Nonacredit investors could get in at

6:46

househack.com. you know, Jeffrey would

6:48

be a great like market bear. We should

6:51

hire him to pitch House Hack. That's how

6:54

you know you use wired products, you

6:56

know. So, we don't have deals on those

6:59

things, which to some extent is

7:01

problematic, you know? I mean, like, oh,

7:04

oh, oh,

7:06

you weren't supposed to see that. I'm

7:08

just kidding. Uh, okay. So, uh, how do I

7:10

get back? Oh, here we go. Uh, uhoh. Oh,

7:15

I'm back. So anyway, where were we? So

7:18

this idea is you're in this environment

7:21

where really I don't think uncertainty

7:24

has reduced at all when it comes to

7:26

where we sit with trade negotiations

7:28

because still we have no trade deals

7:30

with any country. We have a trade

7:32

deficit with zero. And this is a shell

7:34

of a deal. Now Howard Lutnik says this

7:37

is the greatest deal ever, but he's

7:39

slutnick nutlick. You know, I may as

7:41

well may as well walk over here and lick

7:44

some salty nuts.

7:51

M

7:53

#notsponsored very good honey roasted

7:56

nuts.

7:59

So, while I got nuts in my mouth, this

8:01

idea

8:03

that

8:05

the market price is in perfection, which

8:07

is basically what we have knocking on

8:09

the door of all time highs, this is

8:10

great for making money,

8:13

but we're nowhere near done with trade

8:15

negotiations. And I think that's one of

8:17

the reasons why the Q's are a little bit

8:18

disappointed today. And I mean, we're

8:21

only down seven basis points, so who

8:22

cares? I mean, Palanteer's at all-time

8:24

highs. This morning in the alpha report,

8:27

your boy Kevin's like, "Hey, D&B is

8:29

gonna potentially do well here." Uh, and

8:31

might even meme up, although we're

8:33

getting stuck at the 318 line.

8:34

Yesterday, I was also bullish on Dave

8:36

and Buster's earnings

8:39

before, mind you, that was in yesterday

8:40

morning's alpha report before it was up,

8:43

you know, 10% or 9% or whatever it was

8:45

this morning and then it shot up another

8:46

5% at the open to the line. But broadly,

8:51

we don't know what's going to happen

8:53

between now and Q3.

8:55

Because come Q3, we might actually

8:57

realize we don't have trade deals

8:59

anywhere and these tariffs are here to

9:01

stay for the long term. I think that's

9:03

why Nvidia is down 40 basis points now.

9:04

Who really cares? It's basically near

9:06

all-time highs, right? Does it really

9:08

matter right now? No, because markets

9:10

over the mindset that everything's fine.

9:14

So, I can't blame anybody looking at the

9:15

market going, "Hey, there's no problem

9:17

out there right now." But it does sort

9:19

of set up the idea of like, "Oh, Cory's

9:22

memeing down again. momentum's gone. Uh,

9:25

you know, I don't blame anybody in this

9:27

sort of environment to say, "All right,

9:30

we're basically going nowhere on trade

9:31

deals."

9:33

Japan refuses to even negotiate with us

9:35

unless we get rid of all of the trade

9:36

deals or or all of the reciprocal, you

9:39

know, tariff issues that we have. So,

9:40

this puts us in an environment where we

9:42

say, "Okay, maybe if poop's going to hit

9:45

the fan Q3, Q4,

9:48

maybe we have some trailing stops on our

9:50

stock positions." I'm not ever going to

9:52

say sell out of everything because I do

9:54

think buy and hold is fantastic.

9:57

However, for people who are on margin,

10:00

for people who are on uh uh you know, in

10:03

credit card debt or in some form of

10:06

other debt, there's a beautiful

10:08

opportunity to say, "Hey,

10:11

if uh if we're in an environment where

10:13

prices start falling a little bit, you

10:15

trail out, you stop out, and you pay off

10:17

some of that debt. Don't go into a damn

10:19

recession uh and get screwed. That's

10:22

that's it. That's all I'm saying. I And

10:24

I want to say that now while we're at

10:26

all-time highs because let's be real,

10:27

we're knocking on the door of all time

10:29

highs here. We don't have a deal with

10:31

China that actually matters. We don't

10:34

actually have meaningfully anything with

10:37

any country with a trade deficit. Even

10:40

Scott Bessant this morning on the Hill,

10:41

he's like, "Yeah, yeah, we're we're

10:43

working on deals with 18 different

10:45

countries. By the way, please pass the

10:46

big beautiful bill. Otherwise, if the

10:48

big beautiful bill doesn't pass, we're

10:50

gonna have an economic crisis the likes

10:52

of which nobody's seen since the great

10:53

recession of 089. Okay, that's also

10:56

true, mind you, but that bill is going

10:58

to pass. Like, Republicans cannot let

11:01

this year go by without passing this

11:03

bill. It would be the biggest failure of

11:06

the Republican party. There will be talk

11:08

about the bill not passing, but the bill

11:09

will pass. The big beautiful bill will

11:11

pass. There's there's I have zero doubt

11:13

about that. and anything that suggests

11:14

it's not going to pass is just blatant

11:16

fear-mongering. Uh, and I don't really

11:18

think it's necessary. That said,

11:23

you know, what comes of Q3 with actually

11:26

like getting tariff negotiations, what

11:29

happens when Liberation Day ends and

11:31

Trump sets tariff levels on other

11:33

countries? TBD. It's one of the reasons

11:35

I'm watching Restoration Hardware

11:37

because I'm like, I don't know. you

11:39

know, Restoration Hardware, you know, if

11:40

you're out in Vietnam, first of all,

11:42

Vietnam probably looks a lot like this.

11:45

You'll walk around with boomerangs over

11:46

here and start chopping some stuff up. I

11:49

don't know. But, you know, you chop up

11:50

these big, beautiful trees right here,

11:52

you can actually make yourself some nice

11:54

furniture. The problem is the tariff

11:56

rates right now are at 10%. And

11:59

Restoration Hardware spent basically all

12:01

of the money they have available to

12:03

stock up on inventory for their

12:06

products. And so, what do you have?

12:08

you've got maybe three or four months of

12:09

inventory, but what happens when that

12:11

comes to a head and all of a sudden that

12:13

inventory is spent? You know, I went to

12:14

Restoration Hardware the other day, uh,

12:17

and I actually made a video while I was

12:18

over there, uh, and the lady was telling

12:20

me they were selling stuff like

12:22

hotcakes. I think that's because what

12:24

you see in the Restoration Hardware

12:25

earnings calls is that they keep

12:27

dropping prices over there. And that's

12:29

one of the reasons, oh, somebody was

12:30

here. Oh, how could you not take that?

12:33

Uh, I think that's one of the reasons

12:34

why you're seeing this sort of

12:36

resilience of of companies now because

12:40

companies sort of stocked up, but is

12:42

that going to last? I don't know. I was

12:45

certainly hoping for a lot more news on

12:47

this China trade deal. Uh, and we didn't

12:50

get it. I mean, I even mentioned, hey,

12:53

you know, we could we could see a big

12:54

popup on Nvidia if we get back to this

12:57

H20 uh chips chip exports. And it makes

13:00

logical sense because if we can get the

13:02

H20 chip exports again, we can

13:04

potentially rewrite back in 8 million 8

13:06

billion, excuse me, dollars of revenue

13:09

and uh if we can actually negotiate a

13:11

deal with China, then we can maybe be an

13:14

environment where we're excited again

13:16

about uh not having to worry about trade

13:20

policy destroying companies like

13:21

furniture companies or toy companies or

13:23

Mattel or Hasbro or whatever. and

13:26

instead we could actually think, hey, we

13:29

can go back to an economy that's

13:30

growing. Now, don't be confused by the

13:32

Atlanta Fed Q2 GDP estimates because

13:35

remember, uh, you know, exports and

13:39

imports are a big negative uh, factor in

13:42

GDP. So, when all of a sudden we're not

13:44

importing as much because we stocked up

13:45

in Q1, GDP artificially looks high.

13:48

That's not going to last on the year's

13:50

average. So, you know, get your bamboo,

13:53

uh, get your inventory stocked up. go

13:55

bring it into your base. Uh, and uh, and

13:58

and hope for some I got to clean this

14:00

crap up. I've been doing this too much

14:01

as a little my little depot box. Anyway,

14:04

um, it's cuz I have a job to do. I don't

14:07

actually get to play more than like 5

14:08

minutes. But anyway,

14:12

I don't know. Uh, I just wish we got

14:15

more out of the deal today. I think we

14:17

were all looking forward to more and we

14:20

got less. And we've been listening to

14:22

Besson for like two hours on the Hill

14:24

and it's basically a giant ass sales

14:26

pitch for the big beautiful bill. It's

14:28

total bull crap. Like of course the

14:31

bill's going to pass. We already know

14:32

that old news.

14:35

Yes, it would be bad if the bill didn't

14:37

pass. Okay. Yes, it's going to be good

14:38

for businesses. We're going to talk

14:40

about it in the Trumpomics course,

14:41

especially all the uh you know 100%

14:43

bonus depreciation benefits that you're

14:45

going to get. But in terms of actual

14:47

trade policy, nothing, man. nothing. So

14:51

in fairness, some of the Democrats who

14:53

were railing on Besson talking about

14:55

this China trade deal

14:59

kind of right because we didn't get

15:01

anything. Now here's a piece from

15:02

Barren. China trade deal done. Other

15:05

countries may get more time. Okay. Well,

15:08

this trade deal is a joke. We basically

15:09

didn't really get anything. This is what

15:10

Besson said in in the House committee.

15:12

There are 18 trading partners. We were

15:14

working on those deals. we will roll the

15:16

date forward to continue good uh uh good

15:19

faith negotiations. This is basically a

15:21

way of also implying that this July 9th

15:24

expiration might end up just getting

15:26

kicked down the road if they don't end

15:28

up getting uh a deals. And so they'll

15:32

either assign tariff rates or we'll

15:34

delay it, which is also kind of

15:35

interesting that we could potentially

15:37

just kick the can down the road, which

15:38

is exactly what we've been doing, mind

15:40

you, with the Tik Tok deal, for example.

15:43

Uh China's restrictions on exports of

15:45

rare earth, blah blah blah. of the US

15:47

restrictions on semiconductor sales were

15:49

a key issue, but we didn't see any talk

15:51

about that. Treading water not gaining

15:54

ground is some of the commentary that

15:56

we're getting on this. Totally agree

15:57

with this. Says the negotiations were

15:59

off to a good start. I mean, we watched

16:01

it, so we don't really care on that. Uh

16:03

I'd like to see a little bit what suits

16:05

are saying on this. All right, so here

16:07

are some institutional comments on this.

16:09

US and China have established a

16:10

framework for implementing the Geneva

16:12

Consensus, which now requires

16:14

presidential approval. However, a lack

16:16

of details resulted in muted reaction

16:18

overnight, right? And we still don't

16:21

have those details. Talk about US and

16:23

Mexico agreeing, you know, nearing a

16:26

deal on steel duties. I'm surprised that

16:28

even City Bank can't spell deal

16:30

correctly. That's a good one. Uh maybe

16:32

because they're writing steel and

16:34

instead they wrote deal

16:37

framework. The court of appeals. This is

16:39

also bad news, mind you, on the tariff

16:41

situation. this whole court of appeals

16:43

extending to July 31st to hear oral

16:46

arguments. That's insane. Why don't you

16:48

hear oral arguments on trade policy as

16:50

to whether or not they're legal now? Why

16:52

are you waiting seven freaking weeks

16:55

before telling us if courts are going to

16:57

declare these trade policies uh at least

16:59

the reciprocal tariffs illegal or not?

17:01

That's like dumb.

17:04

Trade war weighing on Chinese growth,

17:05

housing and demographic headwinds. Okay.

17:07

China housing market cooling in China.

17:09

We already know that. We already know

17:11

Chinese housing market is falling in in

17:14

China. This isn't a big deal. What we

17:16

care about is the trade deal. This

17:17

appears to just be impact. US and China

17:19

less dependent on each other for trade.

17:21

This has also been true. And really the

17:23

turning point here uh was right here

17:26

which is Donald Trump's trade war 1.0.

17:29

So this is the 1.0 trade war and this is

17:32

the 2.0 trade war. And then over here

17:34

you can see the axis starts at 12% 21%

17:38

uh Chinese as a percentage of total you

17:40

know trade. You could see we care less

17:43

about trading with the Chinese which

17:45

maybe is a good thing because it'll

17:47

impact our economy less. US now

17:49

importing more from Mexico than China.

17:51

Mexico being the green line over here.

17:53

Also fair although you've seen a little

17:55

bit of a slowdown because of the recent

17:56

tariff impact. Housing bubble in China

18:00

blah blah blah. Okay that continues to

18:01

slow down. We already know that. That's

18:03

that's old news. Even Besset referred to

18:05

the housing slowdown in China

18:08

uh while he was on the hill this

18:09

morning. So, you know, again, here you

18:13

are in an environment where

18:15

we're just curious, like scratching our

18:17

heads, like what are we actually going

18:19

to get? Uh, you know, what we could do

18:21

is we could look at Louis Vuitton. Louis

18:24

is an interesting one. There's an

18:26

institutional piece here on Louis

18:27

Vuitton. The reason I think it's

18:28

interesting is because you you do get

18:32

uh a higherend sort of look at what

18:35

higherend spenders are doing.

18:38

While uncertainty remain or remains, we

18:41

believe the luxury cycle and recovery

18:44

and reiterate our buy of Louis Vuitton.

18:47

This is Goldman. So Goldman reiterates a

18:50

buy on Lousie because the valuation is

18:52

attractive trading at 14 times

18:55

enterprise value to EBIT 2026 estimates

18:58

21 times uh PE ratio.

19:01

Okay. Catalyst ahead beauty launch new

19:05

creative director changes to our

19:07

estimates still you know negative EBIT.

19:11

We now assume more pedestrian growth

19:13

outlook particularly with US and China.

19:15

we lower our underlying growth forecast

19:17

to -3%. So, still struggling to kind of

19:20

sit at flat here. And then you've got

19:25

what else on the trade deal here? People

19:28

are wondering, you know, why are the

19:30

cues falling? Because I'm pointing out

19:32

the failure of this trade deal.

19:34

Obviously, while I've been filming this

19:36

video, you know, institutions are

19:38

looking at their best source of

19:40

information, meet Kevin, and they're

19:42

like, "Man, I mean, this guy has a

19:44

point. This trade deal is a nothing

19:46

burger, and Trump didn't tell us about

19:48

the limited time frame, so you know,

19:50

like this is this is fair. Thank you,

19:52

Kevin, for letting us know uh you know,

19:54

about these trade deal concerns because

19:56

there certainly is no other broad news

19:59

that just hit because I'm also watching

20:01

the newswire services." So anyway, we'll

20:04

go back to yapping about trade policy

20:06

here. Uh, you know, even the Bloombergs,

20:09

they're just talking about Vance's

20:10

refusal or talking about monetary

20:13

malpractice. Well, I already made a

20:15

video on that and now Bloomberg's

20:16

copying me. I mean, come on, let's be

20:18

real here. We know where the real source

20:20

of news is, and it's not these suits.

20:23

So,

20:25

uh, let's see here. Because everybody's

20:28

just as clueless right now about the

20:30

trade policy.

20:32

Uh cuz the real source of news is

20:34

obviously this beautiful app. True

20:38

social. What? No. The Meet Kevin app.

20:42

Mind you, remember you're not going to

20:43

get all my video notifications. YouTube

20:45

will only give you three in like a

20:47

almost a two-day period because of the

20:49

24-hour overlap. So, you're only going

20:51

to get three. You know, we've already

20:52

had like and you can kind of customize

20:55

which ones you want, but we've already

20:56

had many more than that uh through the

20:58

Me Kevin app. So, you're not going to

20:59

see all the videos unless you're paying

21:00

attention to that because we're ramping

21:02

up producing more content again because

21:04

I'm in the office all day. So, I mean

21:07

that that's why, okay, if you're

21:09

wondering like Kevin, why is the market

21:11

going down today? Well, because we got

21:13

nothing on the trade policy from Trump

21:15

and just look at Nvidia stock, okay? If

21:17

you want to know what's going on in the

21:18

market, just look at Nvidia. If it's

21:20

red, it's because people are pissed

21:21

about the trade policy and Nvidia

21:22

doesn't get to export its chips to

21:24

China. uh you know and it's down 77

21:28

basis points today. Is it a big deal for

21:30

a long-term holder currently? No. Q3

21:33

maybe because obviously if this stuff

21:35

drives us into a recession it's a poopy

21:37

dupy. I hope not. Uh here's a an

21:40

interesting piece that uh from from the

21:43

doomers. I hate these people. That's why

21:45

I call them the doomers. Uh new US

21:49

tariffs are working as intended. Right?

21:51

Wrong. This is the Bloomberg editorial

21:54

board. So obviously based on the

21:56

headline, they're going to take a big

21:57

dump on Trump. Um, okay. So we got that

22:00

bias out of the way. Let's get into it.

22:02

According to one school of thought,

22:03

recent economic data give reasons to

22:05

celebrate. US trade deficit narrowed

22:07

dramatically in April. Uh, growth will

22:10

likely be higher in the second quarter

22:11

than the first. Yeah, no crap. We

22:12

already talked about that. So are the

22:14

administration's new tariffs working?

22:16

No. Okay. Huge uncertainty over trade

22:18

policy plus efforts to anticipate what's

22:20

coming are muddling the pictures until

22:22

the fog clears. Surveys of confidence or

22:25

other qualitative data may offer a

22:27

better guide to underlying developments.

22:29

Their messages are discouraging. First,

22:32

the supposedly good news after

22:33

liberation day about the trade deficit

22:36

following was good, but that was spiked

22:38

by a trade deficit spike in the first

22:40

quarter caused by that. Anticipating

22:42

tariffs, people pulled forward demand.

22:45

Okay, we already know that old news. At

22:47

first sight, the labor market looks

22:48

sturdy. Unemployment rate held at 4.2%.

22:51

But the unemployment numbers for prior

22:52

months were revised downward. True, the

22:54

household numbers collapsed and

22:56

participation fell. I was almost choking

22:59

on a leftover piece of nut skin.

23:04

Sorry, I put too many nuts in my mouth.

23:06

Uh, the participation rate fell too,

23:09

meaning unemployment didn't rise partly

23:11

because more people dropped out of the

23:12

labor force, right? Which is a problem.

23:14

This is where we go to Oh, we should see

23:16

the latest 27we uh unemployed chart by

23:19

St. Louis Fred. This is where I always

23:21

get the comments from people that like

23:22

but

23:24

you know they just don't count all of

23:26

the unemployed people. Uh they do they

23:29

just do it in a different way. 27 week

23:32

it's actually a nice little drop in the

23:34

27we unemployed level. Honestly that's

23:36

pretty good. Uh it's actually not that

23:38

bad a data. Uh the household number was

23:41

still bad. A participation rate was

23:42

still bad. But usually the trend of this

23:44

going up so we could go to quarterly to

23:47

try to smooth this out. the trend of

23:48

this rising and then go out to max. The

23:51

trend of it rising is concerning. Now,

23:53

it's volatile on a monthly basis, right?

23:55

So, you could see volatility in the 90s

23:57

and it's not until later in the

23:58

recession that you get a pretty clear

24:00

spike up. But you can see even over here

24:01

leading into the 80 recession, you get

24:03

some volatility. Early '7s, you get

24:05

volatility. Do bubble you get this sort

24:07

of volatility, the spiking, the sort of

24:09

like teeth over here. And then it

24:11

becomes very clearly and consistently up

24:13

once you're in recession. So, the

24:16

spiking of this data that we're kind of

24:17

getting right now is reminiscent of sort

24:20

of a pre-recession era where you you

24:23

have a clear trend up, but it's still in

24:26

a volatile environment. This is really

24:28

driven because of the fact that we just

24:29

don't have skyrocketing um layoffs yet.

24:33

Short-term signals are mixed and they

24:35

will stay stay that way a while. I agree

24:36

with that. I actually think that's a

24:37

fair thing to say. Short-term things are

24:39

mixed. The Beige Book gathers

24:41

comprehensive data. The newest report

24:43

finds elevated levels of uncertainty. Oh

24:45

wow, thanks for telling us something

24:47

new. Fed respondents said they expected

24:49

tariffs to drive up costs. Yeah, they

24:51

will for businesses, but not for CPI. It

24:53

reported falling demand and orders, the

24:55

ISM surveys. The reason is tariffs, very

24:58

early days. The admin's trade measures,

25:00

including the schedule of reciprocal

25:01

tariffs, are currently at pause for

25:03

bilateral talks. Well, minus the 10% on

25:05

everything. Uh tariffs on steel and

25:07

aluminum, fine. If sustainably faster

25:10

growth and higher living standards

25:12

emerge from the current trade policy

25:13

chaos, it will be a miracle. Don't

25:16

celebrate just yet. Honestly, kind of

25:19

like a fair piece here from the

25:21

Bloomberg editorial board. They're not

25:23

wrong. They're basically just telling

25:25

you like

25:28

it could get bad. Be careful. Uh like

25:31

oh, here's another one. The bullwhip

25:33

effect of trade is going to hurt. Yeah,

25:35

but that's from May 6. So this is the

25:37

surge of imports won't buffer US

25:39

companies from tariffs forever. Higher

25:40

prices or squeezed margins are ahead.

25:43

This is an old piece from May 6, but

25:45

this is still correct and it'll probably

25:47

be, you know, June or July where where

25:49

you actually end up um you know starting

25:52

to see some of the actual impacts.

25:54

Tsunami of cargo looks more like a

25:56

swell. How old is this? May 20th. Even

25:58

if there were a strong surge of

25:59

shipments, various parts of the logistic

26:01

change are well position positioned to

26:03

handle it. That's fine.

26:06

Uh front loading will take place but it

26:08

won't be a tsunami of good. Shippers

26:10

will accelerate peak season. Feared

26:12

tsunami turns out to be more of a minor

26:13

swell. Fine. In other words, so far

26:15

things are good. But the less certainty

26:19

we get on this trade policy on a daily

26:21

basis, the crappier it is. And so today

26:24

we didn't really get anything. Let's see

26:26

what South China Morning Post says. US

26:28

Treasury Chief slams unreliable China uh

26:32

at House hearing on trade policy. So,

26:34

this is a Hong Kong based paper. It's

26:36

basically Chinese propaganda, although

26:38

people like to say because they're based

26:39

in Hong Kong that they're not. But

26:42

whatever, let's give them let's give

26:43

them some credit for just being not a US

26:45

source of media.

26:48

Bessent trade b slam Beijing for being

26:50

unreliable. China currently has the most

26:52

unbalanced economy in history. He said

26:54

they cannot be allowed to export their

26:56

way back to prosperity, not only for

26:58

Americans, but for working citizens

27:00

around the world.

27:02

Uh Bessant said China has proven

27:04

unreliable. Treasury Secretary further

27:06

sought to project optimism on the deal.

27:08

The policy outlined in February would

27:10

raise US tariff levels to match its

27:12

trading partners, which is untrue by the

27:14

way. This is a total lie. Like we are

27:16

way going above and beyond the tariffs

27:19

that other countries have against us by

27:21

by an order of like 10 10x. It's insane.

27:24

It's way way way way higher. But that's

27:27

okay. Like they let them brand it how

27:28

they want. We want to balance trade, you

27:30

know, because they're trying to include

27:32

like non-monetary tariffs as well in

27:34

their sort of balance of this. US China

27:36

negotiations in China saw a deal

27:38

announced which is subject to China and

27:39

approval, whatever. But the vast

27:41

majority of Wednesday's often

27:42

contentious hearing involved the Trump's

27:44

administration's one big beautiful bill.

27:46

True. That's also true. That's what I

27:48

kind of said earlier in this segment.

27:50

Pardon me for being skeptical about the

27:52

administration's ability to get any

27:53

meaningful dem negotiations done with

27:55

China because of what's happened in LA

27:57

in the rest. Linda Sanchez was right

27:59

about this and we also said it as we

28:01

heard it that she's right to say that

28:03

like you're right to kind of be

28:04

skeptical and it's interesting how

28:06

they're pointing out her line right

28:08

there kind of smart like maybe they're

28:10

watching you know our video here

28:14

I got to pat Kevin on the back uh but uh

28:17

but I mean it's true so you know what

28:19

you could do is I always like doing this

28:21

go to what the Chinese embassy is saying

28:23

uh and then we'll flip off of this topic

28:25

so you go to the Chinese embassy

28:28

And let's see if they've said anything.

28:30

So maybe not.

28:33

Fishing first meeting trade talk

28:35

consultation mechanism was held in

28:37

London. During talks, two side held

28:39

candid and in-depth talks and thoroughly

28:41

exchanged views on economic and trade

28:44

issues of mutual concerns. Two sides

28:46

reached a principled agreement on

28:47

implementing the important consensus

28:50

reached uh on a phone call on June 5th

28:52

and the Geneva consensus. The US side

28:56

said the meeting had achieved positive

28:58

outcomes and further stabilized

28:59

bilateral trade relationships, adding

29:01

that the US side would walk in the same

29:03

direction as China. Notice how they

29:06

didn't say anything about the Chinese

29:07

side here.

29:10

Oh, here we go. Chinese vice premier.

29:13

The two sides should work towards each

29:14

other to demonstrate sincerity

29:18

uh continue maintaining communication,

29:19

promote steady and sustained growth in

29:21

the relationship. So, China is not

29:23

bagging on this, but I feel like if you

29:26

read between the lines on this, it's

29:27

kind of like, all right, this was a

29:28

little BS. Like, so we got Chinese

29:30

students back in US universities and we

29:32

got some jet engines from GE. Like, all

29:35

right, big deal.

29:37

We'll give them some exports on rare

29:39

earths, but this is a very, very limited

29:42

scope deal. So, in case you're wondering

29:44

why uh markets are, you know, less than

29:48

enthusiastic right now, Nvidia, by the

29:50

way, now dropping to 1.17%. Here's why.

29:53

How convenient that it's happening

29:55

during my video. This is where people

29:57

are like, "Kevin, you always a bear when

29:59

things are red." No, man. Kevin makes a

30:02

video and then things turn red. Can we

30:05

get an ego check out here? Why not

30:07

advertise these things that you told us

30:09

here? I feel like nobody else knows

30:10

about this. We'll we'll try a little

30:11

advertising and see how it goes.

30:13

Congratulations, man. You have done so

30:14

much. People love you. People look up to

30:16

you. Kevin Praath there, financial

30:18

analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

30:20

great to get your take.

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