Nancy Pelosi's New YOLO Stock Trades [JUST OUT].

hey everyone me kevin here in this video

sponsored by moomoo link down below we

gotta talk about nancy pelosi and what

the heck she just bought everybody loves

following nancy pelosi's trades because

we all know she seems to have some sort

of crazy insight uh her body seemed to

be pretty dang well timed and let's go

ahead and take a look at some of these

purchases and what they might be

signaling to us so all of the

transactions here are options purchases

i'll go ahead and explain those if

you're confused with how some of these

work i'll do my best in this video to

explain but if you're looking for a deep

dive on options or ta or fundamental

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writing those off as an education

expense check with your cpa okay folks

let's take a look at this so we've got

google we've got a google call options

here for september of 2016

2022 so september 16th of 2022 now i

find this really interesting because

september uh is past that first half of

accu of 2022 when we're still expecting

some inflationary rockiness see by the

end of 2022 we're expecting inflation to

go down market is at least expecting

inflation to go down to 2.8 percent fed

down to 2.5 percent we look at uh

inflation now though it's at 6.9 in

december we've got a cpi read coming up

in a couple weeks in january here but

beyond that

we think there's still a good chance

inflation might run hot for january

february march until some of these

supply chain issues uh finish off so i

wonder if this is almost a little bit of

a signal that nancy pelosi and

presumably her husband who did a lot of

these trades are thinking that uh maybe

we'll be in an optimistic environment

for inflation by the second half of 2022

and that's why they're going heavy on

tech here so take a look at google also

show you what the charts look like on

the day they purchase these and we'll

talk historic volatility a little bit so

i'm going to show you first what they

are so we've got uh google september 16

2022 10 call options with a strike price

of 2 000. now it's worth noting that 2

000 is about 900

in the money folks let's go ahead and

take a peek if we were to go grab those

google shares right now those google

shares for september

of

2022. there we go sept 16. we went all

the way down to 2 000 we would pay a

959 dollar premium for those what's

really interesting though about in the

money call options like this is the

stock's at 29.20 that means your

breakeven for these is only 29.59 which

really means if you were to execute

these today you're only paying somewhere

around 40 dollars in extrinsic value and

the rest is intrinsic value these deep

in the money call options these are

something that i've been taking

advantage of as well and in my opinion

they're much more insulating than the at

the money or out of the money options

keep in mind your theta decay is also

going to be lower when you are deep in

the money as opposed to at the money and

then also really far out of the money

but then that has other risks as well

that has substantial pricing risks next

transaction we have micron 100 call

options of micron at a strike price of

50.

these uh micron shares are also set for

september 16th also extremely deep in

the money here this is a stock that ran

on the 21st with better outlook and

better guidance also in the tech sector

also in the chip sector and folks first

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free stocks these uh micron shares are

also set for september 16th also

extremely deep in the money here this is

a stock that ran on the 21st with better

outlook and better guidance also in the

tech sector also in the chip sector and

folks 50

pretty deep in the money again just a

quick reference looking again here and

we'll look at volatility in just a

moment i'll show you that as well but if

we go to 50 dollars you're you're

basically only paying about 80 cents for

that option

in extrinsic value not bad that's uh

something that i would consider as well

if you're looking for those longer

options go deep in the money it's it's

pretty juicy right now look for those

where you're paying little to no x

uh now this right here reof this is some

sort of real estate llc for it looks

like uh some kind of hotels in fairfax

virginia san antonio and baltimore so

not a public entity here roblox 100 call

options at a hundred dollars now this

one was interesting because roblox is

actually trading at 98

so this one's exceptionally bullish on

roblox at 100 however

it is also they're also giving

themselves about another five months on

this one this one goes out to uh january

2020.

and uh it's about a 250 to 500 000 trade

where which is about the same as the

micron trade the google trade was about

twice as large somewhere between 500 000

and a million dollars

then we got a sales force transaction

here salesforce coming in in the money

with a call option also for january 2023

we've got a 210 strike here for

salesforce compared to 255 of where the

market is right now

and we've got two transactions for sale

for salesforce also quite bullish

salesforce and google the most bullish

uh based on the purchase amounts here

and then we've got in the money 130 call

options for walt disney again for

september 16th so really looking at that

second half to beginning of 2023 for

these tech stocks mostly plus

disney which to some degree is also now

becoming a tech stock so i would call

this very very bullish on the second

half let's go ahead and take a look at

where some of these purchases were made

and then let's talk about historic

volatility remember if any of the terms

here are confusing or whatever i teach

all of this in the stocks and psychology

money group down below okay so take a

look at this

these are some of the purchase dates

what i did is i just marked with a red

arrow where the purchases were made so

disney was made here not particularly at

any kind of bottom we've had plenty of

opportunities to buy tesla at about this

level here we are a little bit above

this now i'd say this is about 150

dollars about where this purchase went

through

salesforce roughly at a similar spot to

where we are now

roblox is actually slightly lower to

where we are now so probably wasn't at

the money call option when it was made

or executed uh let's see here then we've

got google

roughly about the same spot as to where

we are now so nothing special here at

google micron was actually these options

were purchased the day of the positive

outlook

so uh they reported in the morning

before options opened so they would have

bought after this surge they could end

up buying the top on this and they

bought these when volatility was

definitely at a peak so let's talk

briefly about volatility remember folks

when it comes to options get this you

want to buy low sell high okay so

volatility is really really important

because you can get crushed with

volatility just as a quick example if

you look at a volatility chart which you

could look at let's say like alpha query

or whatever to try to find this you

could find

these these sorts of charts yourself but

uh what's important is when let's say

you have volatility that's really high

like oh micron just reported earnings

usually volatility's peaks which means

you end up paying peak pricing for call

options so this is usually the worst

time up here to buy and this is where

they did end up buying so i don't think

they're actually watching the volatility

charts here because i don't think they

would have bought otherwise there but

volatility has kind of been doing this

on micron now in fairness the stock

price has gone up more to offset that

we're still up about four

bucks maybe about five percent from this

moment here so it's not only volatility

that matters as long as the price of

micron keeps going up might be able to

avoid that volatility crush volatility

crush happens when volatility all of a

sudden plummets and people pay a whole

lot less of a premium for your call

options and then all of a sudden you can

be like what why is my option all of a

sudden down five percent the stock

didn't move at all today it could be

volatility crush so that's why usually

you want to sell at the top and buy at

the bottom on volatility just as an

example i bought call options on google

in february of 2021 this year and

volatility was at the bottom of the year

and while google's price did go up that

volatility boost really juiced the

returns on those options because

volatility went up which was great it

was kind of like having wind at your

back in addition to price movement

anyway

disney right now is sitting at a pretty

low level of volatility so i'd say

pretty decent for buying somewhere close

to its average 100-day average is about

25 right now setting about 21 for

volatility pretty decent it is a lower

vol stock

salesforce is sitting at about 22 right

now compared to 33 on 100 day or 48 on a

30 day it might go lower but not

terrible either for some of these in the

monies

roblox has a 67 uh volatility on the

100-day average or the 100-day average

rather is 88 it's at 67 right now so

elevated after this ipo but still lower

than where it has been

mu really peaked when these were bought

but again the price has gone up since

then so could be okay uh unless this

really crushes back down i probably

wouldn't buy them on mu right now i'd

wait for a little bit of either a

volatility pullback or a price pullback

and be a little patient on that

google pretty stable we're sitting at

about 16.9 the range has been between

16.9 to 22 over the last hundred days so

over the last hundred days we're at the

bottom of volatility for google though

in february we're down to like seven we

were down half the volatility we had now

uh but the good news about this this

nancy pelosi trading here is really it

seems bullish

on the second half which is kind of

exciting uh more expirations really

right before the winter of 2022 which is

interesting and it's uh it's heavy on

tech

so not likely betting or making a bet

here that inflation will end up lasting

seems like more of a an inflationist

transitory style of bet which is kind of

a democratic argument right now that

inflation is transitory you do see that

a lot more amongst democrats than you do

amongst republicans that of course

though could be politically influenced

the democrats are incentivized to say

inflation is transitory because that

helps them pass more money spending

programs republicans are incentivized to

say that inflation is not transitory

because that helps them block money

spending programs so the truth as usual

probably somewhere in the middle

all right folks thank you so much for

watching this video hopefully this was

insightful to you if it was consider

sharing and folks we'll see in the next

one thanks so much goodbye