I’M F**KING PISSED

how this Iranian attack potentially

hurts tariff negotiations.

First of all, 24 hours until the Ukraine

deal is done. Wrong. Is the deal going

to be done before Trump gets in office?

That was wrong. Within 24 hours? That

was wrong. Within 3 months? That was

wrong. Okay, fine. It's not trying to be

anti-Trump. It's trying to say, how is

Japan going to look at this? How is

China going to look at this? The other

countries are looking going, "Huh, he

couldn't negotiate with Putin. He

negotiated for 60 days with Iran.

Couldn't make a deal with Iran. They had

to level Iran to get what they wanted.

Which, you know, it's a power play. You

know, you could also look at it and go,

"Oh, they leveled Iran because they

didn't negotiate." But to some extent,

it also shows that, you know,

things can go extreme in both ways

because Putin's going extreme in the

other way and attacking more and we're

not really doing anything. Trump's kind

of throwing his hands up. And with Iran,

it's not the US that's destroying Iran.

It's Donald Trump throwing his hands up

going, "Well, you know, I was hoping the

negotiations would go better. You know,

I told Israel not to attack, but uh I

guess we'll just have to wait and see

what happens." you know, and sort of

that like throw the hands up mentality

has now led to basically the leveling of

of the nuclear facilities uh in in Iran,

you know, to be to be determined the

extent of how many we just know of

Natans, although there are, you know, at

least a dozen of these nuclear

facilities. Uh then you look at the the

headache that the courts have given

Trump. Now, in fairness, yesterday the

Northern District of California said

that Trump's actions taking over and

essentially usurping the National Guard

were illegal. But then Trump immediately

appealed and the appeals court said,

"No, no, no, no. Trump can keep using

the National Guard until we hear

arguments on July 31st." Okay, that

basically gives him seven weeks to keep

using the National Guard in California,

which basically means Trump continues to

have access to them for the period of

time he likely needs them. Fine. But the

same thing happened with the trade

court, right? Trade court says Trump's

use of of applying reciprocal tariffs to

other countries is illegal. Trump

appeals and the appeals court goes,

"Well, we'll hear arguments in July and

we'll decide if it's illegal then." And

it basically gives Donald Trump more

time to negotiate. But other countries

might look at that and go, "I don't

know, man. You might have gotten more

time from the courts." But it seems like

if we just wait,

you're just going to throw your hands up

at some point. Kind of like you threw

your hands up with Putin, like you threw

your hands up with Iran, and you're you

might end up throwing your hands up with

tariffs. Now, I don't know. But it's

interesting because this negotiating

powerhouse that we're branded as

receiving from, you know, Donnie T

so far is giving us more chaos than art.

You know, we're getting more of the

chaos than the art of the deal. At least

that's what it feels like. And again, I

don't give a And I'm saying that

frankly if you think I'm being

anti-Trump here. I'm just observing what

I think is happening and the impacts

that means for tariffs. I honestly don't

care if you think I'm a Republican or

Democratic shield because my goal is for

everybody to hate me. If everybody hates

me on each side, then I'm doing my job.

When it comes to the tariff

negotiations, we want tariff

negotiations to go well. If Donald Trump

flipped the script, if Donald Trump was

able to negotiate deals with Putin, if

he was able to negotiate deals in Iran,

if he was able to negotiate deals with

China, all the other countries would

likely come bowing down. Instead, we're

not negotiating deals. We're not

actually getting deals done. We got a

deal done with We got a joke of of a of

a preliminary deal done with China.

Basically rails for a deal to where

Scott Bessant himself says this is going

to take a long time. China's giving us 6

months of rare earths then they can drop

the hammer on us again. While at the

same time, you know, we're back to

letting Chinese students in, which is

fine. And Donald Trump says he's always

been four, which was interesting because

that's not what he said two weeks ago,

but whatever. Uh so you know now all of

a sudden you're you're kind of in this

this like chaos where it's like all

right so which way are these tariffs

going to end up flipping towards the end

of the year because now what we have is

we have a market at basically all-time

highs and you've got an environment

where consumer sentiment is exploding.

Consumer sentiment numbers were

excellent this morning. Consumer

sentiment was expected to come in at

53.6. We got 60.5. Current conditions

59.3. Expectations we got 63.7. blowing

last month out of the water. Mind you

that these are the preliminary figures

for June. They're amazing. Inflation

expectations plummeting, business

expectations skyrocketing prior of 47.9,

which is contraction, exploding to 58.4,

which is expansion. Like sentiment and

markets are really, really optimistic.

But when we look at the reality of

what's actually happening with deals,

we're getting a bunch of fugazi. It's

kind of like yesterday, you know, we see

uh uh uh, you know, Howard Lutnik,

Slutnik Nutlick, go on Fox News and he's

telling Larry Cuddlo how, you know, oh,

we're going to pay off, you know,

trillions of dollars of debt because

25,000 people signed up for the gold

card. Okay. Well, I feel like it's my

duty as a reporter to to try to find out

how legitimate some of these claims are.

So, what did I do? Well, I did the

natural thing and I applied for the gold

card. Uh, so I applied for the gold card

yesterday. I tweeted about it at Realme

Kevin. You, by the way, I I'm pretty

sure Elon Musk censors my tweets. Like

he totally downgraded my algorithm on

Real Me Kevin on X, which is fine, but

you might have to look for my tweets.

It's fine because like I hate I post

breaking news before other people do.

and and the the engage like the

engagement and view ratio is way lower

than than even smaller accounts and I

think it's Elon's kind of like turned

the dial back on my ex account a little

bit but it's okay I'll still use it to

post whatever so uh I applied for the

gold card as Walter White yesterday just

in case they'd start bragging about

signups zero vetting so I applied for

this uh and uh I also wrote that I said

I was from South America applying as a

business with one to four employees

because I Jesse with me. So, you know,

then people were like, "Oh, well, they

don't actually need to vet people."

Well, then if they're not vetting

people, they should say the people who

applied aren't vetted. But if you're

saying, "Oh, if 25,000 people convert,

that's going to be trillions of dollars

off of our debt." Well, how do we hold a

candle to that if you did zero vetting?

You just did it for branding. And that's

the thing like that as we dive deeper

into the actual components of what's

going on with negotiations with Trump,

it's not good. And this is why longer

term I'm bearish the second half of this

year for the stock market. Now look, I

don't want to be a dirty bear. I mean,

you saw me play Rust yesterday and we're

like, go kill the bears, you know, like

in the video game, okay? I don't

actually think people should be killed.

Uh the the point is like nobody likes

bears. And I'm just saying the more I

research and study everything that's

being done, the more I'm like this is

half ass, man. So like again, I want

Trump to succeed, right? Like I want

deals with Putin and Ukraine. I want

deals to be done with Iran to where we

don't have to level cities. Well, we're

not really leveling cities, but we don't

have to pull a Gaza on Iran, which is

possible with a leaderless country, and

we'll see what happens over there. They

still have their Ayatollah and some of

their leaders, but obviously, you know,

this is a big blow to Iran, so we'll see

what happens here. Uh, and we've got 14

days supposedly of strikes planned here.

Uh, and then the trade deals, the

components of the deals that we're

getting in trade, and you know, this

Trump, like everything is like glitzy

and golden on the top. We're going to do

deals in 24 hours. It's going to be the

greatest we've ever seen. Apple's going

to invest $500 billion. Micron's going

to invest. Meta's going to invest.

Microsoft's going to invest. Like it's

all glitzy talk, but so far I'm not

seeing the real stuff. I will say

securing the border, he did very well.

Striking Houthy targets, excellent work.

The strikes on the Houthis, excellent

work. It actually the strikes on the

Houthies, by the way, I think, paved the

way for the Israelis to be able to pull

off these attacks today uh to to limit

some of the counter damage. But I'm just

saying like for the second half of the

year we have to deal with this like

sheet of gold that's put over like a

bundle of trash basically. So it's kind

of like we have golden poop and like

that the gold flakes are starting to

wear off and it's kind of like oh nope

still a pile of So like I don't

know you know maybe maybe like maybe

this is like Trump derangement syndrome

or something. I'm just my opinion is

just we've we're being sold a lot of

glitz and as an investor and not as a

Democrat or as a Republican, as an

investor, I think we have to pay for

this glitz in the second half. That's

just my opinions. Okay. So, so again,

take it for what it's worth. I'll stop

bitching. Okay. May maybe maybe I just

haven't had enough Kalúa in my coffee

this morning. Okay. All right. So, I'll

back off.