Top 10 Best Investments for the Coming 2025 Recession.

in this video I'm going to give you 10

Investments to or to not make in a

recession we'll talk about the best and

the worst let's get started number one

robotics now this might sound crazy like

why would you want to invest in robotics

or robots in the next recession well

that's because I believe this next

recession is going to be very unique and

this video is not going to be about why

I think we're going to have a recession

we know there is going to be another

recession we don't know exactly when

that's going to be but but this next

recession will be the first real

recession where we actually have

broad-based use of artificial

intelligence and potentially to some

extent robotics as well this means

industries from legistics Diagnostics

underwriting any customer service or

sales a slice maybe if it's only 10 20%

still a lot of all of those workers

might be replaced by artificial

intelligence and Robotics especially in

a recession see here's the real problem

most companies don't like doing layoffs

they prefer doing what are called quiet

layoffs they're basically a way of

saying we're going to make things a

little less cushy and comfortable around

here and kind of hope that you leave

because it'll lower our costs which will

increase our bottom line and frankly

ever since we sort of opened up our

economy to China costs for labor as a

percentage of corporate profits have

been plummeting in otherwise in well put

in another way workers are making less

money and corporations and stockholders

are making more money now in a recession

stockholders get punished we'll talk

about that in just a moment but this

will be the first recession where

artificial intelligence and Robotics is

at play to not contribute necessarily to

the recession but to actually make the

recession longer and harder to get out

of see remember a recession is a period

of time usually two quarters in a row of

negative GDP and a period of time of

uncharacteristically high employment

unemployment see we actually had two

quarters of negative GDP in

2022 q1 and Q2 but we didn't really call

that a recession because the

unemployment rate was really low around

3.3% so so it wasn't considered that we

were in a recession even though stocks

fell 30 to

70% certainly felt like we were going

into a recession but people hav had

enough money to keep spending up to some

extent yeah growth estimates came down

but nobody really got laid off during

that quasi recession instead the

recession that I'm talking about would

be more of a Great Depression or 2008

style recession and this recession will

be the hardest and will take the longest

amount of time to get out of because

ordinarily what happens in a

recessionary period of time like what we

saw during uh the 2003 era uh March of

2003 we had the Federal Reserve

essentially bail out the stock market

and companies started hiring again you

had that happen in February of 2009 you

had that happen in March of 20 uh 20

during covid uh to a smaller extent you

had the bond uh bond market rescued by

the Federal Reserve at the end of 2018

so the Federal Reserve is sort of known

for trying to fed put the markets

basically prop up hiring but the issue

is companies right now may not be laying

off heavily because they prefer that

quiet laying off I talked about and what

happens is they sort of wait to lay off

until really everybody is laying off

because then their stock prices get

punished less and that means there's a

higher likelihood of many companies

laying off people rapidly all at the

same time and the downside of that is

where are those people going to get jobs

we barely have enough jobs today to

cover everybody who's unemployed getting

a job if they were perfectly matched

assuming all the job postings that are

open today are actually open sometimes

people forget to take job postings down

happens a lot with you know the job

posting websites like indeed and

otherwise because those platforms sort

of incentivize you to forget about your

job posting so they can keep collecting

Revenue it's a problem probably excuse

some of the numbers but now imagine you

add to you know say 6 million unemployed

and 6 million job openings add you know

10% of people losing their jobs well

that would be another 15 million you

could be in a place of 21 million

unemployed people and only 6 million

jobs and if half of those are fake or

disappear you've got 3 million jobs

available for 21 million people your

workers available to jobs ratio would be

7 to1 it would be a miserable miserable

depression 21 million people unemployed

would represent an unemployment rate of

around

13.2% and it could happen very rapidly

placing these people back into jobs in

the era of Robotics and artificial

intelligence is going to be hell it's

going to be very very bad and this is

why part of me is really tempted to

expand my investments into robotics I'm

doing due diligence right now on some

robotics companies that are private and

I might be making some VC Investments on

top of the VC Investments I've already

made into some of these robotics

companies because I think some big

changes are coming stay tuned to the

channel we'll have more information on

uh these deals that are going on number

two let's talk mortgages H now this one

doesn't sound as fun as robotics

robotics I mean and I want to separate

quickly robotics from AI I don't mean AI

right I don't mean like investing in

chat GPT at $158 billion when you know

these language Nets are just going to be

a dime a dozen in a few years in a few

years Apple will have one Google's

already got one Microsoft uses obviously

uh open AI GPT uh Amazon's throwing

money into anthropic which makes Cloud

uh claw rather you've got um meta AKA

Facebook and Mark Zach working on llama

everybody's got their neuronet okay this

this is not where you want to invest in

my in my opinion everybody's gonna have

a neural net that's not the place I'm

talking real robotics like physical

robots yeah that actually integrate

these neural Nets that's a big one okay

now we got to talk Mor mortgages I know

I'm bluring these together a little bit

here but I just wanted to clarify that

to make that exceptionally clear I also

kind of think the chip Market is played

out because once the AI infrastructure

is built out you're not going to see all

these new orders for more and more and

more AI so I think there's some downside

risk there when that said let's talk

mortgages now mortgages this sounds

extremely boring why would somebody want

to invest in mortgages ordinarily you

wouldn't want to mortgages right now a

lot of them are locked in at 3 to 3 and

1 12% some people even locked in 2.7% on

their 30-year mortgages big fan of the

30-year mortgage you all know I'm a real

estate broker a big real estate investor

run a real estate startup big fan of

real estate also financial advisor and

you know I've got a bunch of broker

dealer related

licenses but the point of

mortgages is mortgages actually go up in

value especially the higher interest

rate

mortgages when interest rates come down

so when interest rates come down we

expect everybody who has a mortgage at

four five 6 7

8% first of all their mortgage is going

to be worth more than what it was

previously obviously there's some risk

because some people could end up having

to default on their mortgages but if you

get Prime rated mortgages your default

risk is usually a lot lower you know

subprime mortgages you want to stay away

from but after Dodd Frank and the

ability to repay I don't think the next

recession is going to be a 2008 style

recession I think most of the people who

have the ability to repay are probably

going to be able to at the very least

make their mortgage payment it's not

going to be the first payment they stop

making they'll be much more likely to

stop making their affirm buy now pay

later loan payment than they are to stop

paying their mortgage especially since

they know that'll tank their credit and

that they risk losing a valuable asset

uh unless of course they're woefully

upside down but again because of the

ability to repay and because of prime

mortgages I don't actually think this

will be a real estate L crash that's why

I think mortgages are so interesting now

don't get me wrong markets like Texas

and Florida they having idiosyncratic

problems that means they're having their

own problems where those markets were

overbuilt during covid because

everybody's going there for

Freedom okay great well then you

overbuild there with your freedom and

now you've got a glut of Supply too much

Supply prices come down not enough new

people coming because now people also

have at least some Freedom still in

places like California we like to say

cnia I'm from there so I feel like I can

say it but anyway what are you going to

do so my belief is that default risk on

Prime mortgages is relatively low uh

however what's interesting is the value

of mortgages goes up as yields fall in

the marketplace and in a recession I

expect the long end of the curve to fall

as well and then I think these mortgages

will become more valuable but there's

also refinance risk and this is why I

specifically like companies that also

originate mortgages so that way they're

making a new loan and collecting the fee

on that loan and so you get the best of

both you get a company that has a

mortgage that becomes more valuable as

you enter a challenging environment

assuming low defaults and if people end

up refinancing hopefully before they

lose their jobs you end up capturing

that refinance revenue and then again

you have a quality

mortgage and I actually think if rates

come down slowly because we slowly back

into a recession then what you end up

getting is potentially multiple

refinances you know somebody refinances

when rates Dro to 5% they refinance

again when rates drop to

3% it's an idea some options you might

consider looking at here and I've got

some exposure to these just keep that in

mind uh but rocket mortgage I think is

probably your best positioned and the

stock has been on sale lately United

Wholesale Mortgage Company another one

that's the number two one I'd Rank and I

really rank these based on how much they

actually have in on their balance sheet

in the way of mortgages uh how much

pricing power I think the actual brand

has for doing

loans and uh their servicing rights I

sort of evaluate all of these on their

balance sheets uh the most risky out of

all of these but that has the most

upside is probably a lan Depot uh that's

uh ldi is the ticker for that you could

also potentially play a stock like red

fin because they do mortgages but you

have to be really careful with this one

it's a lot more volatile it's a great

company and it's not going anywhere but

it definitely has downside risk as well

because they make a lot of their money

from actual transactions less so

mortgages but they might be able to ramp

their Mortgage business really well

during a recession so mortgages are an

interesting play for me uh especially

residential that's the other thing the

companies that I mentioned here they all

pretty much focus on prime lending not

subprime ability to repay lending and

they focus on residential real estate

you kind of want to stay away even from

multi family I'm a big fan of uh single

family right

now okay uh next option oh uh I guess

another thing to look at here uh you

know selfish Shameless plug if you will

right here uh I actually think the

investment option that we have opened

for house hack right now house hack.com

is really ideal because it's a

convertible Bond basically but uh if we

go public at some point in the future

you get pretty much all of the upside

because you get converted to stock so

you get all of the upside but while

we're not converted you get paid 5%

interest because you own a bond and

because the company basically has I

don't know less than 4% debt which is

very very low uh it's a company that we

believe

we'll do very well in our session be

able to pick up some sweet deals so

check that out house act.com not a

solicitation here go read the PPM over

there uh there's a deadline on that one

for December 13th by the

way okay um so number three stay away

this this would be a bad one so I think

robotics good private Investments maybe

in robotics mortgages there's risk here

but I think there's a lot of upside here

as well a lot more than people recognize

because this is not going to be the

single family crash this is I think

there's there's a dip opportunity on

mortgage companies right now just

because rates have gone so high and I

think they're really topping out but

we'll talk more about rates in a moment

another one that I would avoid or the

first one that I would avoid would be

small cap stocks I actually think small

cap stocks like your Russell 2000 would

probably be your absolutely worst

investment right now the Russell 2000 is

sitting at one of the highest

percentages yet for unprofitable small

caps with up to 40% % potentially not

able to pay their debts with the income

they're making this makes them zombie

companies worst of all these smaller

companies are small for a reason it's

because either they're new which makes

them more at risk or they're small

because they've just never been able to

grow up into a big boy or big girl some

of these companies have been small caps

for decades and they just don't grow up

this puts them most at risk of

disruption and getting replaced during a

recession just straight up going

bankrupt so out of all of them Dow Jones

S&P 500 NASDAQ small caps are probably

the most Reckless investment that you

could make in the stock market right now

and look while it's sexy to say oh Trump

is going to save the world or you know

hey uh there'll never be a recession

again or whatever well it's sexy to say

that and it's really fun especially when

the stock market's going up you got to

be aware of your downside risks as well

because there's no such thing as a

riskless investment and this if we're

going into a recession I just think is a

reckless investment to make of course

nothing in this video is personalized

Financial advice that's just my take

number four I like cash now this sounds

crazy a lot of people get mad at me when

I say cash but cash you know they go oh

cash is trash cash is not trash cash is

opportunity see the reason uh Berkshire

Hathaway and Warren Buffett have done so

well is not because they could read the

best balance sheet it's because they

wait they have so much patience to wait

for really good deals and when those

really good deals come up they have the

cash to buy and that makes me very

excited now Warren Buffett himself

doesn't actually go straight into Cash

he prefers shortterm treasuries less

than one year in duration now one of the

reasons those are nice is because you

generally have good liquidity you have

low risk of principal loss and the

one-year treasury right now at least

when I last checked uh yeah it's

yielding a pretty good yield the

one-year treasury as of the recording of

This is yielding

4.4% which is crazy that's a pretty high

number in my opinion and the six-month

treasury is yielding

4.5% now those numbers could change over

time but even if they're yielding 2% I

think they're a good opportunity for

parking cash because if you put money

into a money market like a

VXX a Vanguard money market style fund

uh it's possible that those rates are

going to plummet very very quickly so if

you can lock in 4.5% for a year or 4.3%

or whatever it is right now for a year

and then in 6 months they drop rates

substantially at least you have another

6 months of that yield or just have

straight cash sitting in like a you know

Robin Hood or whatever the danger with

that is if it's in Robin Hood you're

probably going to swipe up some stocks

and blow

it number five uh high quality corporate

bonds uh now one of the nice things

about high quality corporate bonds is

usually in a recession liquidity is so

tight that you can generally get really

discounted Bonds on great companies that

aren't going to go bankrupt like apple

for example and you can often get

because bonds will sell at a discount

account when people need liquidity you'd

often get some of these high quality

corporates at excellent yields

potentially 8 n 10% 11% on like an apple

corporate should be buying these all day

long now they're not always available

and you have to hunt for these and so

this one's a little bit more nuanced

Niche talk to your financial adviser or

your Banker about high Guild Bond

options and uh I'm sure they'll have a

whole menu for you to pick from if I

wanted High uh

high quality corporate bonds I just call

up my Bankers over at JPM and ask for

help you could probably do the same

wherever you Bank they're plenty of

advisers that would love to help you

especially at Banks they've got plenty

of portfolio products for this or market

products as well number six now this one

is you know people defer on this one

just straight up longer term treasury

bonds so technically in a recession you

usually see bond yields across the Curve

come down let's assume this right here

is like your 20 and 30 year this side

and this is like your two-year treasury

when you have an inverted yield curve it

means that your shorter term is actually

higher than your longer term that's

broken that's a warning sign of

recession well in a recession usually

both go down but the 2-year yield Falls

faster that means even though the 2030

year yields coming down those mortgage

rates are coming coming down as well

you're getting the two falling faster so

some people like to invest in the 2-year

but I don't actually think as an

investment the two years is a great

option it's too cash-like so instead

what I like is investing in uh the

longer term uh treasury bonds because I

personally expect this next recession is

going to be

deflationary not inflationary a lot of

people have different opinions than me

on this and that's okay this is just my

take my take is this will be a

deflationary recession that comes and

the longer on the curve you are the more

principal appreciation you'll see talk

about that in just a moment but some

options that you could look at if you

wanted to uh this is not sponsored I

have no affiliation with them but you

could just go to US Treasury etf.com US

Treasury etf.com they have a nice um

option here 5 year 7 year 10 year 20

year another option if you want to

compare would be like a TLT which would

be a 20- year comparable to the

utw Y over here uh TLT is a really

interesting one because it it has a lot

more liquidity and one of the things you

could do just because they don't move

that rapidly actual bond prices you know

you might get like 10% Bond swings in a

matter of 4 months that's not like a

meme stock you know it's kind of a low

movement uh but what I like doing is I

like going out on the Chain uh and I

I'll be frank like I bought some January

2026 versions of these uh 428 days out I

overpaid for them because I bought them

when TLT was uh a little expensive a

couple months ago so I made a little

oopsies here but I'm still very excited

about this because I actually think TLT

will go to 120 my base case is 120 uh

you know my bare case is

105 to 110 uh and I know we're at 90 now

so you can buy the dip on that but I'm

saying over the next year and uh and

then my bull case is that these are

going to go back to 140 150 bucks uh

this particular security which makes

options extremely desirable I think

that'll be a very very large payout on

them no guarantees obviously the timing

could just be wrong and I might close

that position and flip-flop on it sooner

but right now uh I'm very bullish on on

this because now I get a leveraged move

on the longer end of the curve with

options I get I get a leveraged option

on the longer end of the curve which I

think will come down in recession with

the two the two will go more rapidly but

because the principal doesn't move as

much I'm not really going to play

options here I'm going to play options

here and I've got liquidity I need

liquidity and I need movement in a

recession for this bet to really play

out might even go by the dip honestly on

some of these uh these options that I

have so we'll see okay so uh that is uh

number six number seven this one is a

good and bad so the good is because well

the topic here has to do with

commodities the good is going to be your

gold maybe even silver or platinum your

precious metals precious metals in a

recession almost always do exceptionally

well the nice thing about gold is it

does well if you have inflation and it

does does well if you have recession

does well in both

cases now I personally don't think we're

going to have a second wave of inflation

even when the Federal Reserve starts

stimulating with quantitative easing so

that's why I chose bonds instead of

gold I also think gold has run quite a

bit here on this fear of uh you know a

second wave of inflation or whatever so

I think the pricing is undesirable at

this position then there are bad

Industrial Metals these are going to be

things like copper uh and other

Industrial Metals because usually in a

recession those will plummet because

production slows down that should be

pretty

straightforward number

eight crypto is not going to be your

protector in a recession

cryptocurrencies and nfts and meme coins

momentum coins I like to call them are

going to do exceptionally well in a

bullish Market bullish stock market

bullish stock market at all-time highs

high levels of greed high levels of

options playing and speculative appetite

and the belief that everything is roses

going forward and there will only be

Perfection going forward

cryptocurrencies are great in that

environment and they will continue to

hit all-time new highs over and over and

over again until of course the party

stops and when the party stops digital

gold allaha Bitcoin will not protect you

I do not unfortunately believe that in a

recession certainly any momentum coin uh

like a mcoin uh and certainly not uh

your your um your frankly your Bitcoins

and your ethereum do not or or nfts I do

not believe any of these are going to

protect you in a recession they don't

protect you against inflation at this

point at least and I think they really

are more of an order book at this point

of to some extent greed in euphoric

times that is great when things are

great but it can get bad very very very

rapidly in a recession especially one

that lasts much longer than the co

recession so I would just be cautious in

crypto when it comes to recessionary

environment and anything that I owned

that I was nervous about I would just

set good to cancel stop losses so if I

broke below a certain point

automatically just sells

number nine now don't get me wrong I I

just want to be clear crypto okay in a

in a bullish you know momentum

environment number nine a good

investment could potentially be momentum

to the downside so something that people

like to do and bearish environments is

they will go out on the option curve

usually about 60 to 150 days and they

will buy puts they'll buy puts on highly

valued companies they'll take you know

some of the favorites I hate to say it

it's not to be you know angry or evil to

these companies it's just they have high

valuations Costco very high valuation

Wing Stop very high valuation uh you've

got uh paler Tesla these are all

companies with very rich valuations

right now uh and these rich valuations

will probably compress very rapidly in a

recession and you could catch that

momentum to the downside you catch that

momentum to the downside you might be

able to play it with options or even

straight shorts just be careful

everybody hates a bear so you really

don't want to tell anyone that you're

shorting number 10

investing in yourself now I know this is

crazy I've got a bunch of courses

obviously over at meetkevin.com I send

trade alerts I send trade ideas I do

fundamental analysis and I talk with my

course members every day the market is

open about fundamental analysis and what

the next steps of the current EC

economic state or what plays are

potentially considerable and uh what you

might want to pay attention to you can

join any of those over at Meek kevin.com

but no frankly if you want to protect

yourself from that investment number one

Robotics and you want to protect

yourself you got to get more Skillets

and you got to do things robots can't do

yet be a pilot be an AI programmer

become a robotics programmer go to

school for mechanical engineering get a

side hustle in these things even you you

realize you don't even have to

go learn this like like uh um you know

try to teach yourself some of these

things uh and it doesn't have to be your

primary job you could take a course take

a class take a something to elevate your

education and something else as a hedge

uh to what it is that you do so for

example if you're a real estate agent

maybe you want a side hustle going doing

some night classes and nursing just

saying if you really have a hard time in

sales maybe this will be a backup option

for you I'm not saying that what you

want to do you might think I'm crazy for

saying it but hey worst case scenario

you get a 2-year degree or license and

something that's functional and it's

always a

fallback uh the other op and you can

still use your real estate license for

your own deals now you have a W2 you can

qualify with another thing to consider

is trades learn how to do trades

Electrical Plumbing HVAC framing Roofing

handyman work anything that you could do

to get your butt on Yelp on upwork i o

Yelp stock by the way is very cheap

right now uh so is end phase but topic

for a different video uh whatever you

can do to get your butt uh advertised as

someone who's available for hire and

you're insulated from AI you know AI

ain't going to replace my Outlets

anytime soon that is something I I would

consider because you the last thing you

want is your income to dry up so there

you have it 10 Investments for recession

or not Investments you know selling some

of them and buying some others might be

good but these are my thoughts do

whatever you'd like quick recap robotics

mortgages stay away from Bad small caps

short-term treasuries and cash High

Yield Corporate bonds longer term

treasury bonds uh bad Commodities and

good Commodities good being gold bad

being copper bad crypto nfts uh number

nine the only momentum you want is not

upside momentum but downside momentum

and number 10 investing in yourself if

you found this video helpful make sure

to subscribe and folks we'll see you in

the next one goodbye and good luck why

not advertise these things that you told

us here I feel like nobody else knows

about this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin paffrath there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take