*Critical* Fed Docs | Know THIS.

the most critical documents from the

Federal Reserve which will dictate what

markets do for the next three months are

about to be released but in order to

actually realize the magnitude of what

we're about to get you've got to go back

just a little bit and when I show you

this you're going to laugh or at least

you should maybe you'll even cry hey

everyone meet Kevin here this folks is

known as a summary of economic

projections it looks fancy and

complicated but let me show you how

simple and wrong this particular

document was this document released

December 15th this by the way was when

the Federal Reserve u-turned this was

what I called the most disastrous fed

meeting ever in fact if you type into

YouTube meet Kevin worst fed report

you'll actually see me react to the

minutes of that meeting but don't worry

that meeting May they have been a very

critical and disastrous meeting but take

a look at what you're going to laugh at

here the Federal Reserve at the end of

2021 told us that they expected that by

the end of 2022 the Federal Reserves

interest rate level would be the

following highlighted in green on screen

here

yes I kid you not the Federal Reserve

thought that by the end of

2022 the FED funds rate which I joking

called the F rate would be 0.9 percent

folks currently at the time of this

recording it is 2.5 we're not at the end

of 2022 by the end of 2022 it is

expected to be 3.5 to 4 instead of two

and a half percent

off only by a magnitude of three to four

x that's pretty embarrassing not only

did we horribly miss the 2022 projection

but we basically doubled the projection

for 2024 when the FED said we might go

to 2.1 percent now this is really really

important because we're about to get one

of these again and what I want you to

know is

the fed's probably going to be wrong

again everything's going to take longer

and be more painful than expected now

we're going to talk about the June

report then we're going to talk about

expectations for the report that's

coming out Wednesday that's right in two

days we're going to get a new report

that is going to uh probably lie to us

for the next three months but it's going

to be a really critical Baseline now

keep in mind it is very very difficult

to know exactly how long this pain is

going to last we just know we have to go

through the pain and have to go through

the mud I've said I believe that 2022 is

going to be a very painful year and I

really don't expect that to end until we

really meaningfully see inflation drop

which might not happen until later this

year or even next year so buckle up the

pain is real but at least within pain

come opportunities like your opportunity

to get into real estate investing or

getting deals and stuff docs that could

survive the earnings recession if you

want to learn more about exactly what

I'm doing with my portfolio my trades

when I'm buying real estate where I'm

thinking about buying the fundamental

analysis that I do consider checking out

the programs and building your wealth

link down below if you've got a coupon

code expiring for those programs at the

end of the month all right let's get

into the June report this is the June

report folks in the June report the

Federal Reserve suggested that by the

end of 2022 we would be at 3.4 percent

we're going to exceed that at least this

one's not off by such an order of

magnitude but we're very likely going to

exceed that now what's crazy though is

the Fed actually included a U-turn in

their path here in 2024 they suggested

that rates would go down to 3.4 percent

and that they would Peak right here in

2023. that's the suggestion and this

gave markets a reason for optimism that

okay the tightening cycle would be

temporary will tighten into 2023 and

then will U-turn and that's exactly what

markets priced in is we would hit some

form of a peak and then we would U-turn

now presently that Peak is believed to

be about four percent to 4.5 percent

however some folks are now estimating

that the peak could be as high as five

percent and they're going to be some

really critical pieces of data that

we're going to get in two days and

here's what you want to be prepared for

the FED funds rate range this item right

here gives you the range of How High

Market participants

of How High Federal Reserve board

members think the Federal Reserve might

have to hike rates the higher the upper

end of this range the more fear and

drama we're likely to experience in the

market

we also want to take a look at what the

expectation obviously ends up being for

the median approach the survey uh the

average survey of all of the board

members are we going to end up seeing

something like the following end of 2022

4.2 percent wouldn't surprise me end of

2023 wouldn't surprise me to see

something that matches the prior year I

think the FED wants to get rid of this

impression that oh yeah we're definitely

going to lower rates in 2023 but we're

going to raise them now and stay higher

for longer it's even possible we could

get like a shock approach and see

something like a 4.6 a 4.6 and then to

send the signal that we're going to stay

higher for longer something like 4.5

right like some really subtle minor

U-turn now these are the averages that

we'll get from the board members so

they'd really have to conspire to

together to vote in such a way to bring

the numbers in like this but it wouldn't

surprise me because right now markets

are so enthusiastic about this U-turn

right here and and that makes folks

excited that oh the FED paint's only

temporary but as we've seen from the

December numbers and these June numbers

the FED is probably likely continuing to

underestimate the actual pain that we're

seeing now hopefully not hopefully

inflation plummets off a cliff but

between now and when inflation actually

starts plummeting

just give me some pain another thing is

that somehow the Federal Reserve thought

that they could Stamp Out the inflation

in the markets without a meaningful rise

in unemployment take a look at this in

2022 they thought we would end with 3.7

percent in unemployment that might end

up being true but they thought that

unemployment would only go up to about

3.9 or 4.1 percent of the longer run we

might actually see some substantial

revisions here to something where maybe

the unemployment rate actually goes up

to five percent and maybe even six

percent in the longer term now this is

going to be a very politically charged

hot button here because this or these

sorts of numbers will be the first time

that we have a sep right before an

election during the Biden Administration

keep in mind we will not get another

summary of economic projections until

the election happens midterm elections

that means whatever this document says

for the unemployment rate is going to

have political implications at least in

my expectation now we've been talking

about this idea of a paper recession

since January and one of the unfortunate

things that comes out of a paper

recession is additional fear when people

have more fear they generally constrain

their own spending now we're really

getting mixed reads on this now so we're

not crystal clear as to what our

individual consumers will be doing in

response to this recessionary

environment that we're in but I'll tell

you something that's really incredible

it used to be that as recently as a

month ago when I would run into people

they'd say oh back in the recession I

did you know whatever something happened

oh yeah back when we were on lockdown in

the recession I did this

now I'm catching people literally do one

of these they're like

oh yeah back in the recession oh I mean

uh back uh during the lockdowns

think about what the implication of that

is what they're saying is oh I used to

define the covet lockdowns as coinciding

with a recession but now we're over

coveted lockdowns and we're having

another recession so being able to use

the the timing of the word recession

ain't any good anymore because that

could refer to two different recent time

frames uh yeah in these discussions

context tells us that they're generally

not talking about 2008 uh but but it's

really remarkable because we're starting

to say that and as that spreads it

becomes ubiquitous to Consumers there is

entirely the potential for True fear to

still come to markets as we enter an

earnings recession and this is where I

say it's time to Bunker down and make

sure that you are allocated to what are

potentially going to be your most

earnings recession-proof stocks one of

the favorites that I have obviously is a

Tesla now I will expect to be selling

some Tesla in order to fund house hack

this is in the solicitation go to

houssac.com to learn more about that but

but that is that is for a startup and

that is separate and I think we've still

got a couple quarters uh of earnings to

go before we really get to sort of peak

Tesla uh pricing which in my opinion

would be a very insulative stock but I

could be entirely wrong the point though

is that we'll be entering this earnings

recession under the weight of the

Federal Reserve hopefully finally being

a little bit more honest with us are

they going to tell us a realistic path

of this federal funds rate and how high

is that going to go is there going to be

someone that suggests raising the FED

funds rate to six percent or five and a

half percent and what kind of response

is the market going to have to that I'll

tell you it's not gonna be good in

addition to that how high do they

actually think inflation is going to go

they've been wrong every single time

they've done one of these before they

saw they thought so far that inflation

would go down to four or five point two

percent by the end of 2022. I don't know

I mean I suppose it could still happen

but uh we'll see so far the unemployment

rate has not ticked up so they've been

accurate on this but with that technical

recession these GDP numbers look awfully

generous so what happens next well what

happens next is we get the new version

of this summary of economic projections

Wednesday when the Federal Reserve has

their fomc meeting what you're going to

want to do is come to the channel at 11

A.M Pacific Time on Wednesday the 21st

which is when we will be receiving this

document along with the federal

reserve's rate hike decision the Federal

Reserve is widely expected to raise

rates by 0.75 that would bring us to a

low end of 3.25

however we have fears being priced into

the market that the FED is going to give

us 100 basis point hikes now if we do

get a 75 I do think that there could be

a 10 temporary rally in the market

because usually when the FED chooses the

lower end the market tends to Rally a

little bit go now well it's just not

that bad until of course the Federal

Reserve comes out and says oh no it is

that bad and we need to talk down the

markets and talk down the wealth effect

I think the biggest driver of the wealth

effect and this is potentially why we

have an 81 chance of a 75 basis point

hike right now versus a 19 chance of a

100 basis point or a full percentage

Point hike I think the biggest driver of

the wealth effect

will not end up being stocks it will end

up being real estate there's a reason I

sold all of my real estate in q1 and Q2

of this year well I should say all of it

but 85 percent of it nearly all it's a

lot but I want to clarify that it's

about 85 of my real estate to prepare

for what I think are going to be the

most remarkable opportunities to build

wealth and real estate in 2023 2024 even

2025 and that's why we're building house

hack and we invite you to join

especially if you're an accredited

investor if you are not accredited stay

tuned for probably January to March

anyway thank you so much for watching

make sure to go to metcaven.com join to

take advantage of the expiring coupon

code prices will be going up again

thanks bye