What Tesla isn't Telling You about the RoboTaxi Event.
FULL TRANSCRIPT
wow the robo tax event I have to say was
way better than expected very very
excited about the robotaxi event uh and
I do believe these Optimus robots
achieved what they were designed to
achieve uh this is footage from the
event happening right now as I'm
recording this uh looks like this
robot's trying to make a heart right
here uh I do believe all of the robots
right now are human controlled I was
expecting them to pass a bag of
McDonald's actually I'm 99% sure all of
them are controlled with the exception
of the the Gazebo robots which were
prescripted with sort of a dance which
was also very impressive I have to say
the actuators the balance of these
robots very very good so very impressive
demo from the robots even though they're
controlled very impressive I love it I
like that they're here in with the
audience obviously you've got Tesla
folks around so nobody pushing buttons
or pushing them over or whatever uh let
trying to go for a fist bump over here I
don't know if they're going to get a
reaction here uh depends on uh also sort
of depends on what the controller can
see and I I I do think they're
controlled I suppose there's a chance
there's not highly doubt that though uh
but anyway Optimus showcase excellent
excellent showcase on the Optimus we
haven't seen any of these Optimus robots
a fall over uh very very impressive uh I
I love this these Optimus robots Elon
did suggest that you should be able to
purchase one for under $30,000 in the
future uh and I do think these are going
to be a game changer but honestly ly
this is going to be like let's be real
it's been seven years of trying to build
Out full self-driving and maybe we're
going to get to unsupervised full
self-driving as early as next year
depending on Elon time uh which would be
good but let's just give it another
decade or so before we actually get
these Optimus moving on their own right
that's that's going to be my prediction
so I think we're still probably a decade
away on the actual Optimus robots
especially since they're likely
controlled now so that's the take here
but as as far as uh announcements here
very impressive your model 3 and Y will
achieve unsupervised full
self-driving potentially next year in
California and Texas for the model 3 and
Y now no guarantees obviously this is an
Elon prediction here but doesn't
surprise me that California Texas might
be the first on that uh this is the
Warner Brothers lot you do have these
Robo taxi cyber cabs driving uh
individuals around uh there was only one
moment and and some of us in the
audience we were joking that you know
this is uh uh this is like um what do we
call it blinker gate I don't want to
sound like the jaded guy and and I'm not
trying to be a hater here is actually
very very impressed by the event I like
the event but I've driven with uh
autopilot and FSD long enough to know
that FSD is really good at disabling the
blinker when there is uh a side road and
I understand this side Ro Road right
here that this uh Robo taxi that Elon is
in preing in it uh as this Robo taxi
comes along the side right here there is
a an intersection right here that it
drives past now it does have a do not
inter sign and it does have a vehicle
but technically uh you were supposed to
disable your blinker when you're passing
an intersection and then you reenable
the blinker that does not happen here it
appears like the blinker stays on now
it's hard to say with perfection but it
looks like the blinker stays on so you
see that's clearly you could potentially
turn right there right elon's literally
right here
praying I don't know if he expected
people to find that uh but when you pass
here and I suppose it was off between
this portion it's hard to tell but it
looks like it's on uh oops I clicked way
too fast uh you know when I when I click
back here you see it I see it flash
there and then it's off and then it
Flash is again and given that it's on a
flash here it probably means it was on
starting at least here which is odd now
I don't mention that as like a fatal
flaw like that's solvable right and and
whatever but it does make me curious was
this using the real FSD software that we
use or is this on its own programmed
software that's just a circuit like a
roller coaster ride on on the Warner
Brothers lot and it's running some kind
of custom software suite and it's
actually not FSD because FSD would have
turned off the blinker and the fact that
it didn't implies to me that this is a
totally different software suite I could
be wrong but that's my observation and
it'd be a question that I have now Elon
does suggest you'll be able to buy one
of these cyber cabs the cool thing about
the Cyber cab is it's twood door no
steering wheel no gas pedals says you'll
be able to buy it and expects it to be
under
$30,000 now that sort of kills the model
2 idea or it brings the model two
together with uh the uh concept of the
Cyber cab because this really is a
smaller twodo car which is what the
model 2 was supposed to be and there's
no steering wheel there's just a large
screen in the middle uh and uh just like
the Bloomberg supply chain analyst
suspected they believe that this vehicle
uh would uh would be go into mass
production in
2027 now Elon suggested it would go into
production starting
2026 and then potentially be available
ready for mass production in
2027 okay so that does still have
implications though because that's going
to be subject to regulatory approval so
first of all we got Elon time then we
got to get through regulation and that's
a little problematic too uh so I don't
know how quickly this is going to help
our numbers for 2025 or
2026 you're really going to have to have
like a five-year time Horizon five a
fiveyear Time Horizon I I love Kathy
okay shout out to Kathy but you're going
to need the five-year time Horizon for
this one something else that I really
liked was the van big fan now I did not
like that they wrote this van off this
is a 20 person van you can actually see
there's no profile at the bottom I don't
see Wheels here now it could be under
skirting but I'm sused out I actually
think this is probably Robo controlled
like remote like somebody's controlling
this with a joystick and there's like
what's underneath this cladding is not a
Tesla vehicle at all I think this is
just a concept and it's a very cool
concept that it could carry 20 people
but honestly I think this is probably
like a you know uh uh like a dolly uh
you know frame of a of a vehicle or
whatever that's why they cladded it down
basically to the floor this cladding is
a red flag to me this is not a
functional vehicle for roads uh and the
fact that after the event uh after they
introduced this sort of Robo van or
whatever the fact that they roped it off
sused me out out as well because I'm
like wait a
minute you know so now it's possible the
Cyber cab is possibly on its own script
because it didn't look like a robotaxi
script or an FSD script it's also
possible that the robo van is not
actually something that's been
manufactured uh instead it's just a like
a total concept and it doesn't even have
a trajectory of being manufactured and
that frankly it's probably kind of just
clickbait now I'm a little disappointed
to say that but you could see it roll up
right
here is this that's its resting spot I
think yeah look at that it looks it
looks almost like you see that curb
right there I almost think it's like
remote
controlled cuz it takes forever to make
that that final little turn there this
looks good that looks
cool all the way skirted to the
floor somebody's somebody's joystick
controlling this is my guess and look at
that it almost goes to the curb right
there and then they stop early I bet you
they wanted to pull it up in the center
of the state you see that elon's kind of
like he's got his hand kind of like oh
stop or whatever I don't know if he says
anything there uh but uh watch his hand
right here stop say I don't know man
yeah look and then they kind of move
move it forward just to smidge in more
and then they give up uh and then it's
cool like a bunch of people come out
like that's cool and all but then later
when it came time for the event to start
and for people to actually get into the
uh cyber cabs which are cool don't get
me wrong that look right here totally
roped off and they literally have an
army of Tesla employees 1 2 three four
look at this look how tight they are
right here like they do not want anyone
in there 1 2 3 4 5 six you got and then
more people stage side these are a lot
of people stay away from the the
clickbait basically that that's a little
sus uh so okay all right okay all right
all right uh you know okay PG says Kevin
is
overanalyzing uh like this is too much
over analyzed listen listen PG okay I
may be recording this to repost this
segment but that doesn't mean I can't
engage with you this is my channel if
you don't like it don't watch okay now
that that's over let's get to some more
the details uh I do like the Cyber cab
will cost below $30,000 that you could
take care of your fleet of cars we've
heard of that idea before uh think
individual mass transit cost of 20 cents
per miles they did start 50 6 minutes
late which is classic Tesla but
supposedly they had a medical emergency
uh in the audience I did not get Bingo
for anybody who cares I did not get
Bingo uh I did say we did get Elon wears
a black shirt Elon is 10 minutes late or
more we got that he didn't jump he
didn't talk about Doge uh he didn't or
the Maga hat uh Tesla stock did not end
over 250 at the end of the event we did
not get McDonald's we did not get Airbnb
we didn't get a cute couple with a kid
going in the robo taxi we didn't get a
starlink integration cyber van is re
revealed not just under the cover like
Sprinter reference the printer I'll give
it that because that is a cyber Van
Trump didn't show up still don't have
Bingo though uh some Robo taxi
commitment from a city like Austin or
something I gave it that because you
kind of have uh this California and
Texas possibly to approve unsupervised
FSD so I gave it that some iteration of
the 25 5K vehicle uh whether it's a
model or not and then the model 2 was
announced or suggested is coming soon
that we basically got the model 2 is the
Cyber cab uh which is a plus and a minus
oh we didn't get any uh roadst updates
which wasn't a big deal anyway but uh
it's a plus and a minus because a model
like if they said we're going into
production on a Model 2 next year it's
the Cyber cab with a steering wheel and
you could get it for
$20,000 okay the stock would Moon
because the stock like the stock market
has pretty shortterm mindset and and
Outlook and they're like oh cool it'll
pump EPS until we get to Robo taxis
right uh because we're getting the Cyber
cab uh you now
limit uh instead of getting EPS in 2025
or
26 you have to go forward to
2027 you have to assume regulatory
approval by
2027 and then you have to estimate who's
going to be the buyer of
it uh uh you know uh once you have those
approvals so it's a shortterm EPS bad
but it's long-term beautiful like
long-term I I love it okay I'm I'm a big
fan here uh I like what I saw it's not
going to help EPS in the short term if
you go into a recession you're still
going to have a stock hit uh xping
announced that they're planning on
launching a a robo taxi in
2026 Uber CEO says autonomous ride
margins will take years to
grow uh let's see
here they have 50 autonomous cabs there
they said oh this was another prediction
that I had that they would end up using
a different computer in the Cyber cab
and it's true they're using a quote
overp speec ai5 computer in the Cyber
cab which would kind of reiterate why
you probably have this running on a
totally different
pre-programmed path like I don't I don't
act I hate to say it but I don't
actually think there's AI in those Robo
taxis driving around I think they're
pre-programmed uh so I don't think
that's FSD and uh yeah not not great now
look at this guy super air Niti donated
two times $10 to ask me how big my short
position is I told you when I started
this event but you weren't paying
attention cuz he's a hater I told you I
don't have a put I don't have a call I
have no horse in this race I got nothing
betting on this event nada nothing I
don't bet on events I it's it's
unpredictable what happens at events
that's not how I like to trade I like to
trade when I see Trends you weeny baby
you little weeny baby somebody tries to
tell you the truth and you don't like it
you're like yeah Kevin said something I
didn't want to hear go suck it get out
of here and I'm taking your $20 I'm
going to take your $20 and then I'm
going to short the stock just with those
$20 I'm just kidding I'm not going to do
that but I will take your
$20 uh so uh Elon actually says that
this is set up like a park ride at at at
like a uh a theme park which to me kind
of implied like oh okay so you did
indeed pre-program it anyway they did
talk about inductive charging now
initially I didn't actually think
inductive charging was a good idea and I
kind of still don't because the loss
factor is huge when you uh charge a
device actually right now I'm charging
this through inductive charging they get
very warm uh and that's because you're
losing about 30 to 40% of the
electricity so I think your miles per
gallon on a robotaxi will actually go to
crap with inductive charging unless they
really perfect uh inductive charging the
magnet charging uh so look it up the
loss rate is like 30 to 35% on inductive
uh so it's doable but I and I don't know
this maybe an electrical engineer can
chime in on this but I think the further
you are away uh from the the charging
mechanism the more loss you have so you
know I don't know if like an inductive
charger has to like come up out of the
ground to like charge the car and like
directly contact the car probably but or
if there's just going to be a large
enough field and the car is low enough
but then I feel like the loss is going
to be like 50% so I'm not convinced
about that so that's it so I mean look
my take overall uh and you could copy my
bingo card or my notes off ec.com I'm
not trying to sell you anything I got
nothing for you to sell and like I said
I don't have any long or short you know
positions on this event calls puts
whatever
um my long and short of the event to use
that phrase is uh it was very impressive
uh I I did like what I saw and I love
the vision they
painted uh I don't think we're close
enough to realistically price in the
earnings per share and because we've
basically now basically we confirmed the
death of the model 2 right like the
model 2 is basically confirmed dead now
so if the model 2 is confirmed dead then
we have to delay a sales boost until the
Cyber cab is regulatorily
approved uh
and given that this was probably on a
script you probably have to really have
that unsupervised FSD in California and
Texas go really well uh if that
unsupervised FSD which is step one goes
really well then you can install that on
the rooc cab that'd be sort of my
expectation so I think probably 2028 is
more realistic which is actually a lot
earlier than I thought for a robo taxi I
I didn't think it was going to happen
this decade I thought it would be at
least 2030 I think they might be closer
here uh so I think that's good
I think the van is a cool idea but it's
it's not probably until 2030 plus we
didn't get any updates on the semi which
I was a bit bummed about and yeah I
guess that's sort of uh my take uh my
take those are my thoughts appreciate
yall being here and and watching with me
and uh hopefully you like uh my ideas uh
anyway thank you so much folks and we
will see you in the next one goodbye
everyone and good luck why not advertise
these things that you told us here I
feel like nobody else knows about this
we'll we'll try a little advertising and
see how it goes congratulations man you
have done so much people love you people
look up to you Kevin PA there financial
analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always
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take even though I'm a licensed
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