The Disastrous Jobs Report & Tesla's Boom Setup.

Holy smokes. We have gotten a lot of

news just this morning. We got to talk

jobs. We got to talk Tesla and Elon

Musk. We got to talk Broadcom with Open

AI. What? Making their own chips. Man,

that's a slap in the face to Nvidia and

AMD. Nvidia down 1.8%. AMD down 2.2%

right now. Folks, we really need to talk

though about this labor report. So,

yesterday Donald Trump said, "Ah, ignore

the labor report tomorrow." And as soon

as he said that, I started getting a

little sus. I'm like, "Wait, wait, wait

a sec. Wait a sec. What do you mean

ignore the labor report tomorrow?" Oh,

you know, report's not going to matter

until next year anyway. H Did Donald

Trump get a little heads up that today's

labor numbers were going to come in

below

79 out of 80 estimates? That's right. 79

out of 80 Wall Street estimates got it

wrong. That's because even though I even

lowered my standards for this report,

okay, for the ADP report, I just wanted

to see 60. Even though markets were

expecting 70, we got 54. Yesterday, I

said, "All right, look, markets are

expecting 75 for this labor report.

Let's just be ultra conservative and

say, you know what, give us anything

better than 40." We couldn't even do

that. We got 22,000 jobs created which

if we consider the revisions that we've

had of negative basically 13,000 I'm

sorry uh negative 21,000 bringing us to

-3,000 for June uh with yes an upward

revision in July of about 6,000. Well,

we've basically wiped out any gains this

month with revisions in prior months net

to the downside. So, it basically means

annualized our labor market is growing

at zero. On a 3-month basis, we're

growing at 38,000 jobs per month, which

is great. And a six, you know, it's

certainly better than than zero. Uh, and

it's higher than the 3-month rate that

we had in the last 3 months, which is

good. We've had some pretty good lows in

there. uh but the six-month average

unemployment rate is running at 67,000.

And so clearly we could see this

deterioration over the last few months.

And this is why people are very worried

that we might be walking into a labor

market recession. Now the stock market

in the short term doesn't price in

recession. The stock market in the short

term doesn't work that way. The stock

market in the short term tends to look

for what I like to call

>> bullish catalyst.

>> Bullish catalyst. This is exactly the

game plan that I set up yesterday for

all of y'all publicly. Mind you,

yesterday evening I made a video and I

said, "Look, people love discounting

data because things don't get real until

things get real." This is exactly the

same thing that we said in the alpha

report yesterday morning, which you

could get if you're part of the Meet

Kevin membership. Price goes up tonight

at midnight. You pay once, you get

lifetime access. But it's exactly what

we said yesterday morning before the

market was open. Before the market was

even open, I suggested that this ADP

data will probably be discounted by

markets. I literally wrote markets will

probably discount ADP and challenger

data in favor of decent claim numbers.

This suggests that Q's bounce today. I'd

look for a bounce at 569 and play the

upside. I don't see us crashing out.

This was in the alpha report yesterday.

And what happened yesterday? Well, we

literally bounced within 3 cents of

where I suggested we might at 569 and 3

cents and we're up from there all the

way through to the 577 to 578 line now

where we sit in pre-market. Actually, we

sit even above that now at 579. So, why

is the market reacting so positively?

Well, it could be because the 3-month

average employment rate did tick up a

little bit. It could be because the

household numbers are actually decent.

They came in at positive288,000.

Remember the difference between the

payrolls and the household survey.

Payrolls survey is, hey boss, how many

workers do you have working for you this

uh you know today? Oh, I got 10 workers

for me. Okay, then you call the 10

workers. Hey uh you know how many uh how

many jobs you working right now? Oh, you

know I got I got two jobs. Okay. Well,

there's this potential that usually when

we look at these reports, you double

count in the payrolls data and not in

the household data. That usually leaves

people calling the payrolls data less

accurate, the household data potentially

more. Well, the household data here is

good. So again, if you're

>> bullish catalyst

>> looking for a bullish catalyst, the fact

that you had a good household survey at

positive 288,000, the three-month trend

taking up slightly, and the fact that

we're basically now fully pricing in 25

basis points of cuts from the Fed

explains why just like we forecast

yesterday, the markets are actually

decently optimistic at the moment.

They're not really caring about the fact

that we could already be in a labor

market recession. Uh markets don't think

about that until it's too late. Markets

panic when earnings start plummeting,

but earnings don't really start

plummeting until your neighbors lose

their job and they can't find a new one.

And that's actually where we could go to

some forward-looking concerning data.

And that has to do with the labor force

participation rate. The labor force

participation rate has fallen

substantially as of late. It currently

sits at 62.3 and that's a smidge up from

62.2. It's been on basically a straight

decline. Now, the labor force

participation rate is critical because

it suggests that if for whatever reason

more people come back into the labor

market, like retired people, for

example, say, you know what, I I'm out

of money like or I don't want to go

through my money or whatever, I need to

go work. The labor force participation

rate will skyrocket. The problem with

the skyrocketing participation rate is

it doesn't take a lot of a skyrocket in

the participation rate to see the

unemployment rate skyrocket. And it is

definitionally the unemployment rate

that the National Bureau of Economic

Research will use to determine whether

or not we are in a recession. And once

we are declared to be in a recession,

that is exactly how people get nervous

about corporate earnings. corporate

earnings fall, corporations lay off even

more, and then you are in a

self-fulfilling AI fueled recession.

Now, GPT doesn't think that there's

going to be any kind of AI recession

because after all, even though they say

we're in a bubble, they say that they're

spending the money in the best way

possible. And even though we've heard

this before, apparently OpenAI is now

partnering with Broadcom to produce AI

chips at the same time as Elon Musk gets

a master plan for four for you know

compensation plan which could eventually

pay him out over trillions of dollars

should he meet all eight of his

milestones which include generating over

$7.5 trillion of shareholder value to be

able to unlock roughly 25%

total control of Tesla to a total of 25%

if Elon Musk meets all milestones. This

is all relatively well

>> bullish catalyst.

>> Bullish. This is bullish Tesla so far.

And if you've been paying attention to

Tesla, you know a critical line for

Tesla is that 34758 line. In fact, in

pre-market, we literally perfectly

bounced off of it and within 15 cents

may as well be perfect. Uh at the same

time you have enthusiasm around uh open

AI and software. You have enthusiasm

around Tesla. You have enthusiasm around

rate cuts. You also have enthusiasm

about bond yields falling. Now this is

actually a really big deal for real

estate which we know Warren Buffett is

starting to position for real estate. We

know that house hack is positioning a

lot for real estate and we know we have

an expiring coupon code today which

there going to be a whole lot more

lectures on not just real estate but

stock investing, property management and

of course Trumpomics tax benefits for

2025 to still use. But what's most

important beyond this coupon code

expiring today is that the 10-year

Treasury yield is absolutely tanking.

And this is a sign that potentially

we're at the start of TLT going to the

moon. Now, this is not personalized

financial advice to go invest into TLT.

Who knows, anything can change, but

markets seem convinced the Federal

Reserve is now going to take this labor

market data and it's going to switch to

a point of view that we don't need to be

worried about stagflation or inflation.

We actually need to be worried about

deflation. Just a few days ago, I said

that massive deflation is coming not

only on YouTube, but also on X. You can

see it. Follow me there. Meet Kevin or

Meeke on Instagram. And I talk about how

we are about to go into a deflationary

cycle where prices actually plummet for

things which then of course you might

think well that's wonderful I want

things to be cheaper but things being

cheaper is only good so long as you have

a job or income and the concern is that

we are going to go through an AI

inspired unemployment recession. Markets

are not going to price that in until it

happens. Markets are solely going to

price in enthusiasm around rate cuts and

yields going down. In fact, smaller cap

plays could be most to benefit from

yields coming down, but also most at

risk of going bankrupt should um well,

let's just say the poopy dupies hit the

fan. So, be careful. Now, when it comes

to these payroll numbers and Fed

expectations, markets right now are

pricing in essentially a full 25 basis

point cut in September, but it's likely

we're now we are now pricing in an 8.8%

chance of a 50 basis point cut September

17th. This number just updated right

before my eyes. We've got basically

three full cuts priced in for the year

and an 8.8% 8% chance the Federal

Reserve is going to panic and cut rates

by 50 basis points to support that

weaker labor market. Now, Donald Trump

and his team, they're running cover

trying to discredit the Bureau of Labor

Statistics. The Bureau of Labor

Statistics had technical difficulties

this morning, which I wouldn't put it

past the Trump administration to somehow

orchestrate. Uh, and even though the

data came out on time, Howard Lutnik is

running circles around tariff

announcements and even their boy Elon

Musk is trying to gain favor with Donald

Trump by getting people to talk about

Elon Musk's pay package rather than

what's actually happening in the

underlying economy. And unfortunately,

that's just the nature of the stock

market is the stock market is going to

care about the very short term. And in

the short term, all this means is rates

and yields are coming down and it's an

opportunity potentially to borrow

cheaper for companies or individuals and

basically just yolo it up to the moon.

Now, is that the most sound thing to do?

Well, everybody's got to make up their

own mind. Let's put it this way. If the

Federal Reserve does not act quickly, we

will probably fall behind the curve of

employment. And Jerome Pal's reputation

will be true. Jerome Powell will end up

being Mr. too late and he'll end up with

a recession on his hands or well the

next Fed chair will end up with a

recession on their hands and we're not

going to be able to spend enough money

to get our way out of it. That's my big

concern is that people are going to lose

their jobs and companies are just going

to use AI to refill those positions and

if people leave so be it. It's more

earnings for those companies, which does

make the stock market a unique hedge to

some of this drama. But anyway, uh

that's some of my take on what's going

on with the jobs report and then of

course OpenAI and Tesla. I personally

will give you a quick little spoiler on

where my head is on Optimus. I really

wish we were manufacturing

uh 20 million cars a year. I know that

is one of the milestones to get to that

level, 20 million cars manufactured

total, which is a little different than

20 million per year. But I think that

Teslas are so great. I think they're

such a great vehicle. I love my Cybert

truck. I just moved, you know, over a

100 gallons of paint with the Cybert

truck. I'm very, very excited about the

vehicles that Tesla produces. Uh, but I

am concerned that a move to Optimus is

really going to be a move to a product

that can't really carry weight.

When you see robotics, you're almost

always going to see them carry or

operate with very lightweight objects

because we just don't have the motor

technology yet to keep doing heavy tasks

on repeat for robots without breaking

down. So, I'm a little nervous about the

master plan, but then again, I get it.

Even though this master plan might not

be exactly what I, you know, would agree

with, I have to say Elon Musk has balls

to put his compensation onto this master

plan. So, good for him. And I think

that's why Tesla is up because it's

really a sign off on the optimism that

Elon Musk has for Tesla. And who knows,

maybe in just a matter of time, my

optimism will switch from cars to robo

taxis to Optimus, and we'll be right

back to bullying for Tesla.

>> Bullish catalyst. bullish catalyst for

now. Hopefully, this is enough of a

catalyst to actually break out of this

347 trap that Tesla has been open.

Notice another stock that's also

rallying heavy. We just yesterday hit

all-time highs on Open Door. Well, I

should say recent highs, like last

12-month highs on Open Door, and we're

up another 7% in pre-market. You might

wonder why a real estate play is moving

up. And folks, it has everything to do

with yield. In fact, we expect other

real estate plays to be up as well, such

as Pool, Dr. Horton, Lenar, Lowe's, Home

Depot. All of them are green, folks.

Why? Because mortgage rates are coming

down, especially in the face of this

weak jobs data. Look at Rocket Mortgage.

And this is again why you want to be

part of the alpha report. Spoiler alert,

one of our 10 stocks to buy for the next

10 years is Rocket Mortgage. We've done

fundamental analysis on this company in

detail since it was $10. That's now over

a double since then. And we've been very

active in it on dips over the last few

weeks around $16 and $17.

Even in our alpha report saying, "Hey,

it's 17 bucks. It's a good opportunity

to load up on on Rocket." Boom. Here it

is. Up to 20 bucks. We've got nine other

stocks to buy on the list. 10 stocks to

buy over the next 10 years list. I

really encourage you use that coupon

code bullish and get in. Not only you're

part of that daily technical analysis,

but you're part of that longerterm

fundamental analysis as well. The real

estate trend is happening. And I want

you to hear it here first. Warren

Buffett's in. You've got House Hack is

in. You've got the lenders that are

positioning. The only thing that is

going to happen in the near term when it

comes to any kind of recessionary scare

is yields are going to fall. Now, what

we may see is a spike in this 102 curve,

especially since we have QCEW revisions

coming up on the 9th, which is just in 4

days. In 4 days, we have another massive

catalyst. And if we get a shock revision

on jobs, something over a million

negative in jobs, which is entirely

possible, we could end up seeing the

tend to spread rocket even more. And it

does set us up for a recessionary

environment. Obviously, everybody knocks

on wood and hopes that we can avoid that

sort of crisis because it's going to

suck for people. That's just something

to keep in mind. Now, something else to

pay close attention to is what's going

on with gold prices in reaction to this

labor market report. Despite this labor

market report coming in weak, gold

prices actually moved up. Now, could

that actually be logical? And the answer

is yes. Typically, gold prices move up

in anticipation of a crisis. However,

gold prices tend to fall once you're in

the crisis. So in other words, gold is a

really good tool when you're driving

towards a recession, but it's kind of a

bad tool when you're in a recession. So

are other risk assets. Everything tends

to do poorly with the exception of

things that you can leverage very

cheaply and safely frequently like real

estate. This is just an example where

those who have jobs and those who have

money will end up being able to make

more money. Now, that's unfortunate for

those who lose their jobs, but remember,

even in a recession where the

unemployment rate goes to 15%. You have

to remember, even though that's really

high, it still means 85% of people have

their jobs. Very, very important. Now,

bottom line out of all of this, there

are two things that can really happen to

the labor market right now, and both of

them are just bad. Number one, if the

participation rate rises, the labor

force participation rate rises, our

unemployment rate will skyrocket

immediately with it. Today, the

participation rate rose.1%.

And our unemployment rate went up from

4.2 to 4.3. This could just be the

beginning because if more people are

coming off of the sidelines to look for

work and join the labor market again,

people who retired who say, "I'm out. I

need to go back to work." or people who

were discouraged workers who decide who

at some point decided you know what I'm

just not even going to look for work

anymore are now looking for work again

then the labor force participation rate

will skyrocket and we will very rapidly

have a terrible unemployment rate but

it's not just that it's not just people

coming off the sidelines going back to

work that could create a crisis for our

unemployment rate it is also layoffs

because our beaver Well, it's

technically called the beverage curve,

but it's written like Beaver Ridge

curve. Technically, the beverage curve

is in a very abnormal state. We are in

an environment of low vacancies and low

unemployment. That's very abnormal.

We're like a straight line on the chart

when usually we have this sort of

logarithmic curve down. And what that

means is when we go back to a

historically normal beverage curve,

we're probably going to be at an

unemployment rate of 10 to 15%.

That's not to be bearish. It's just

simply to tell you what the facts of

history are. Now, how do you protect

yourself in sort of this kind of

environment? Well, there are a few

different ways. Number one, for now,

enjoy the rally because the stock market

is almost always going to be blind to

the longer term issues. That doesn't

mean rush to the exits and sell

everything now. It means set yourself a

nice wide trailing stop. Maybe you set

yourself a 10% trailing stop on some of

your favorite stocks or maybe even 7% on

a big index. Whatever. Nothing here is

personalized financial advice simply to

say that if you want to make sure you're

protected, set yourself up a blanket so

you can soft land. Make sure that your

trailing stops pay off your margin, pay

off any short-term debt that you have,

and give you enough cash to buy the dip

and be prepared to hold out without a

job for a good period of time should you

lose your job. Trailing stops are a

fantastic tool for that. And you set

them to be good to cancelled. you only

have to renew them that way every 60 to

90 days depending on your broker and

this way you can keep earning gains

while limiting those losses. Really

something to pay attention to. Now again

why is the market so euphoric? Well

first probably because

>> coupon code bullish catalyst expires

later today and again you get lifetime

access to all the courses on building

your wealth of uh although report every

morning the market is open fundamental

analysis on the 10 stocks to buy over

the next 10 years. all of that. Uh, real

estate insights, real estate analysis,

you name it. Pay once, you get lifetime

access. But markets, again, don't

understand how to price anything other

than falling earnings. Falling earnings

mean it's too late. You're not ever

going to see early recessionary pricing

in the stock market. You will only ever

see it in the bond market. Look at

10-year yields down 10.2 2 basis points

today while the curve is still sitting

at 60. That means the 2-year Treasury is

also falling in lock step. It is. It's

down over 11 basis points. And as they

move in lock step, you're not pricing in

shock yet. You're pricing in Fed action.

The odds that we are going to get a 50

basis point cut just during the

recording of this segment right here

have just now risen to 15.6%.

Which means we're really likely to see

uh like especially when we get these QCW

revisions a 50 BP cut just like we did

last September. And that's what the bond

market is starting to price in right

now. We're seeing the same thing, mind

you, in some of the qualitative surveys.

When we look at surveys, what are we

finding? It's blatant. We're seeing a

lot of inventory building, but we're

seeing a lack of new orders. That means

GDP looks like it's still strong, but

it's really just inventory building so

companies can get ahead of tariffs that

are still taking effect. I just went to

a flooring store yesterday and I'm told,

"Dude, we went five months without any

changes because of tariffs to our

pricing because these companies had so

much inventory. Now we're starting to

get the letters that when this inventory

is out, prices are going up. So all of

that is to say that yes, in the short

term, yeah, we could still see some

price hikes. That's fine. But massive

deflation is going to come after that

should the jobs market continue to grow.

this slowly and I expect it will. So be

prepared for all of that. Massive

deflation is a good thing to the extent

that you have a job and to the extent

that you have capital to actually

deploy. This is exactly why house hack

is doing what it's doing. And remember,

if you ever want to invest in house, you

can always go to house hack.com to learn

more. Read the offering circular, read

the private placement memorandum, and

get familiar with the investment. Check

it out over at houseack.com. So, uh,

with all of that said, we are now going

to jump on over to our course member

liveream. Thank you so very much for

being here and we'll see y'all.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.