The Fed JUST U-Turned | Recession U-Turn.

oh my gosh we're in a recession but the

stock market's rallying oh what is

happening well in this video i'm going

to explain exactly what's happening

because that has everything to do with

the federal reserve i just want to show

off

the most amazing view ever that's right

folks meet kevin and the expiring coupon

code for 50 off on the programs i'm

building your wealth a link down below i

will be back from vacation on the first

and this is the end folks this is the

end of vacation season so i think the

market is pre-rallying a because it's

the end of vacation season and b here's

the scoop jerome powell told us

something very very important yesterday

and i think most folks kind of cast it

aside because everybody was waiting for

these gdp numbers to come in jerome

powell told us that it will be

appropriate in the future

in the near term to start reducing the

pace of rate hikes and has already

mentioned that production and spending

and demand in the economy has started to

slow this is the point of monetary

policy combined with the fact that they

said that once they get to neutral if

there is a lag between how

much monetary policy that is fed policy

affects markets well affects demand

essentially consumers spending money in

businesses

in english okay in plain freaking

english

the federal reserve

at this point is starting to realize

okay all right we've done enough

it's time to slow down

especially since what we've done

reacts or hits the market with a delay

which means the actions that we have

just taken and have taken over the last

couple months will still take some time

to actually play out

so let's chillax a little bit

as a result of this chillaxing

and us officially being in a recession

markets

are cheering

now why would markets cheer well because

folks remember what i said in january on

january 22nd

i made it crystal clear

that the bottom of the market is when

the federal reserve u-turns

now markets have been expecting this and

the potential for an earlier bottom

because we're kind of pre-pricing that

the fed was basically going to u-turn

soon but previous bottoms have been 1989

you should memorize these memorize these

okay 1989 fed bottom

market bottom 2003 march market bottom

march around of uh 2009 market bottom

2018 december market bottom march of

2020 market bottom okay i have these

memorized i got nothing in this like

pink and purple room here okay nothing

nothing just me okay memorize those it's

so important because in 1989 the federal

reserve established the precedent of

bailing out the market

now the federal and now we have this

very clear precedent that the bottom of

the market occurs when the federal

reserve u-turns and so markets have been

pre-expecting the fed to u-turn this is

why markets bottomed in june

so why are we rallying like crazy now

why all of a sudden are we seeing a risk

on move well first of all we're seeing a

risk on move in solar stocks because of

the biden energy stimulus that we've

seen the 369 billion dollar energy

investment that extends the solar tax

credit through 2025 january 1st 2025 and

provides more ev tax credits for not

just individually owned vehicles with no

limit per manufacturer of 7 500

but also commercial vehicles up to

potentially forty thousand dollars watch

the details of exactly that plan in the

video that i made this morning you can

just search for it meet kevin biden

targeted stimulus and you'll see it it's

also called the inflation reduction act

which is total bogus although what will

be really funny is we're probably going

to pass the inflation reduction act

within the next month or two probably

within the next month before midterms

and you know what inflation will

probably go down like immediately right

after and so democrats will go into

november going see we passed the

inflation reduction act in august

and inflation went down in october you

should vote for democrats in october

because we were just dealing with what

trump gave us dude i hate politics

because that's not why inflation went

down okay it is absolutely not going to

be why inflation went down however you

also have to be fair to biden in that he

did not cause all of the inflation

okay we had a lot of stimulus before he

came into office the extra 1400 stimulus

package probably not a good idea

shutting down the keystone pipeline

probably not a good idea but he's not

responsible for all of the inflation

okay anyway this isn't a political video

the point of this is the stock market is

believing that oh my goodness

this is a fed u-turn this is the

equivalent of a federal reserve u-turn

now it may not be because inflation may

not go down however the bond market

believes that no no inflation will be

going down break evens are down consumer

expectations of inflation are going down

that means inflation should be going

down within the next two to three months

that's very good and if that's the case

the stock market deserves to rally and

you should be invested in the market

hashtag not financial advice but you

should be in the market i've been saying

you should probably be in the market

since qqq was at 318 okay and look i

realized we went all the way you know we

went a good chunk below that i get it

i'm just saying you want to be part of

this market because i don't see a

substantial further bottom i'm going out

uh you know i'm putting my neck on the

line here i think the second half of

this year is going to be glorious we

just went through a seven month

disastrous bear market it has been

cancerous people are yelling at each

other fighting each other i've had to

turn off comments because they're

cancerous i'm actually a lot more

productive with the comments off because

i'd spend so much time reading the

comments that just make me feel like

uh you know and then it even washes

out the compliments there could be nine

compliments and one person going

you suck and it just ruins my day it's

terrible and i can't stop i can't stop

looking at the comments so anyway now i

just care about what people say in

discord go to medkevin.com

chat if you want to chat with me on

discord you can tag me there for free it

doesn't cost you anything but anyway

look the bottom line is not only are we

seeing a rally in the solar plays

because of this energy plan but that i

think is starting to prop some names up

a little too high and face sexy stock

love the company phenomenal growth rates

peg ratio relatively close to one i mean

you've got a p e ratio of i think 70 and

a growth rate of like 60

they are absolutely killing it i love

them absolutely love them that eps

bottom line number is growing so nicely

but they're too pricey i think in this

market relative to other deals i know

that sounds crazy because they've been

going up but i think i think the next

run

is going to go to chip manufacturers

once they bottom out with chip

inventories it's going to go to retail

stocks that might be amazon etsy's

already blown up i was looking at etsy

when i was 70 bucks and telling

everybody hey you know there's this

valuation for etsy is remarkable uh and

now it's back at 100 bucks and it

probably has more run to it

uh but

i do want to say this

as much as we're seeing euphoria that

euphoria can quickly shift if we get bad

cpi prints over the next two months

you're going to want to have money for a

rainy day so i'm not the biggest fan of

saying that's it now is the time to go

all in yolo margin i don't think i will

ever say that first of all all in go all

in on margin i don't think i'll ever say

that in fact it's during your euphoric

times that you generally want to start

thinking about taking money off the

table we are not at euphoric times right

now we're coming out of hell which does

not mean we're you four times now i also

understand that there are a lot of folks

who are like but kevin i don't want to

buy on a green day because

like you've taught us kevin only buy on

red days yes but but but but

when you're coming off a bottom there it

it can be okay to buy and go on green

if you are diversifying and

you're not in like if you're not in the

market i i personally think that's a

mistake and you're a little bit behind

the bottom's probably behind us no

guarantees it could still come but i

wouldn't want to make that bet with a

large portion of my portfolio so uh i

believe that the risk on rally we are

seeing right now is not only a

combination of the belief that the fed

u-turn is now charted that the inflation

decline is now charted that we are now

actually in a recession and now is buy

time i've always said that the time to

buy is in a recession and i've also said

since the beginning of the year that we

will probably face a paper recession and

when we face that paper recession you're

going to want to buy because you're

going to get the tucker carlsons of the

world that are going to come out and

talk to this market and consumers

and everything and then you're going to

get some consumers who are going to

panic and start spending less money but

so far they haven't been now we'll see

now that we're officially in a recession

this is another downside risk so i don't

want to sound like mr bull man i want to

be clear we do have the downside risk

that now that we are actually in a

recession every day consumers who have

not been paying attention to the fact

that we're in a recession might start

thinking themselves

oh my god we're actually in a recession

i mean biden might not think so because

he's trying to redefine it but we are

actually in a recession

that's scary maybe we should spend less

honey it is possible that we have been

constraining while the recession was

actually happening and that consumers

average consumers may now just begin to

do so so you do have to be careful there

could still be additional downside risks

for consumer stocks however they've just

been so depressed

i don't know how much more they can go

down but again if we get a bad cpi read

in august or september expect massive

discounts and potentially another two to

three weeks of red following a bad read

so in my opinion

be careful with yolo bets if you want to

upside hedge you can get in the money

calls

that give you some exposure to leverage

without exposure to margin

and

if your stock yolos up

there you go now you can take your

attendees

but be careful yoloing a large part of

your portfolio stay strong out there use

the fifty percent of coupon code down

below it expires tonight so you may as

well take advantage of it and

folks will see you when i'm ready to

launch the series a thanks so much

goodbye