i'm highly concerned

I'm worried this is just going to sound

Doomer and gloomer again so I really

don't want to make this video I'm really

depressed uh but um it's I I I I don't

feel good right now both uh about the

economy uh which I think is about to go

down the pooper and literally what just

went down the pooper at 4:00 a.m.

yesterday let's just say I got really

sick because I had way too much caffeine

I told myself that I'm going to get into

this routine where I could stay up all

night long and I'll finally have my

sleep schedule fixed because I'll just

go to sleep at the appropriate time but

then end with caffeine poisoning again

and let's just say it it's not

pretty this is the problem with trying

to do a meet Kavin report video in the

morning before your 5:25 a.m. live

stream and then you actually have to put

the news together uh for it uh it's um

that that was challenging let's just say

it didn't work out well and so this

morning I screwed up and uh after being

sick I didn't wake up on time and I feel

terrible about that it's entirely my

fault maybe I can finally figure out how

to get this sleep schedule right over

this weekend but let's just say there's

nothing worse than feeling like you got

uh a a this this collapsed uh sleep

schedule as you're trying to do more uh

at the same time as uh feeling like you

really just want to go out there and go

on a run and work out but you got too

much going

on okay with all that complaining and

pardon the French bitching uh out of the

way let's get into this this economy

that we're in I'm really concerned the

consumer sentiment numbers this morning

are really just sort of like icing on

the concern cake but we started with

weak consumer sentiment data really with

Etsy that's when I really started

panicking a little bit because I saw the

Etsy numbers and I'm like wait a minute

and this is Etsy okay like what do I buy

on Etsy buy you know a RuneScape Dragon

medium Helmet or a RuneScape crossbow or

there's a long sword right here or you

know stuff like this a dragon dagger

okay poison tipped poison tip dragon

dagger kind of like how I felt yesterday

like somebody stabbed me right in the

kidney and just poisoned the snot out of

me but the reality is uh Etsy I think is

a canary in the coal mine and I'm really

concerned about that see

Etsy gave us a really big heads up about

what might end up happening with the

consumer sentiment data this morning and

I hate to say it which obviously we'll

go through that but I hate to say this

but I think people have forgotten that

as much as it's fun that GDP can be

built up by the military-industrial

complexes and military spending Biden

bucks or artificial intelligence

infrastructure spending when those

things go away I'm really concerned that

things are just going to get

substantially worse why well because the

consumer makes up 70% of the economy I

think we've forgotten that we're not

like China where the consumer makes up

less than half of that in terms of their

economy and their econom is in the

Poopers too that's mostly driven by the

fraud of the real estate bubble that

they created but I mean consider this

for a moment in case you haven't seen it

I'll just give you a quick run through

here okay Etsy in their earnings call I

thought all right look there's Stock's

been declining forever maybe just maybe

they'll give us some kind of hope that

the pain is about to be over you know

it's kind of like the solar folks you

had uh what was it sunron or whatever

that told us hey you know we're

confident q1 is the bottom things are

finally going to get better great that's

great that's for people who actually

have money to invest in solar systems

and batteries that cost you you know 50

to 70 grand and you're willing to

finance them at seven and a half to 8%

which is like you may as well just pay

the utility at that point but whatever

so this is etsy's stock and as you could

see it boomed during the pandemic duh

that's obvious but it's literally been

dragging along like the Titanic's anchor

at the bottom of the

ocean quite frankly since the middle of

22 so we're coming up on two years here

of some of the worst price action ever

for Etsy and it just feels like it's

about to get even worse than this like

even worse we might frankly in my

opinion go down another 50% down to

basically the depths of what we had

during Co except after covid everybody

was locked in at home so everybody's

buying crap on etsc that they didn't

need and boom we get this you know

euphoric run in the stock now look we're

going to go beyond Etsy in a moment

don't worry we're going to go beyond

Etsy I promise but look at this for a

moment I'm thinking they'll tell us

something about a bottom right because

everybody keeps talking about hey hey

hey the consumer is so resilient don't

worry the consumer keeps spending okay

that's fine the consumer can continue to

be resilient but you know what I hate is

when every company tells me the consumer

continues to be resilient and then some

of them start going I don't know man

we're starting to see the canary and the

coal mine because that spreads like

cancer to other Industries

rapidly that is what concerns me and so

look at this closely these headwinds are

real and they do not appear to be

abating

consumer wallets remain squeezed duh did

you hear about the bnpl stuff let me

write this in bnpl look at the bnpl

crisis ready for this so there's this

article Bloomberg put together from a

Harris poll on Phantom debt and it

suggested that uh basically 43% of those

who owe money to bnpl were behind on

payments and of those households with

over 00,000 of annual income 42% were

delinquent according to the survey

so one of the problems with bnpl is that

many of these don't show up on consumer

reports like your credit report or

otherwise they're just sort of like

little installment reports like paying

for or whatever but people are now bming

their rent they are groceries the

consumer is really like screwed the

bottom 50% is absolutely whacked I mean

we just had uh I think it was gunlock

and also um uh Barry Stern say the same

thing yeah here's Barry Barry told us

we're starting to see the weakness in

the consumer he shouts out Starbucks

McDonald's warnings on credit cards he

says 50 to 60% of Americans are out of

savings the penny pinching is coming

coming Barry Stern says now of course he

says we're temporarily propped up by

migrants taking jobs that Americans

don't want uh and even though obviously

we have an undocumented immigration

problem it's better that people have

jobs than not have jobs and basically be

on welfare here which I suppose is a

good point but uh he's also got this

really big concern that the US debt is

so large the fed's going to be forced to

cut rates not because inflation is

coming down no inflation could actually

be worse but rather because you're going

to start seeing one to two Regional

Banks fail uh every single week maybe as

much as one per day as these cracks

continue to develop now maybe Barry's

just being a bear maybe he should change

his name to Bear Stern Lake instead of

Barry Stern Lake okay that's that's a

stupid joke but it's it's serious from

the point of view

of we're starting to get a lot of smart

money that's saying hey cracks are

coming Barry Stern says the Cs are

coming consumers are out of money and

we're seeing that at a canary in the

coal mine the it's Lally Etsy in my

opinion is literally the discretionary

of discretionary like I think you kind

of go from like discretionary which is

like I need a 3D printed dragon dagger

with a poison tip that way I could go

look at my cool 3D printed poison dagger

tip from RuneScape uh and then I could

write it off because it obviously muted

into this video just like everything

else in this room C

IRS okay so there's like the

discretionary of discretion then there's

like discretion which is like am I going

to buy my kid a new Lego set and then

there's like the subscription discretion

do I really need Hulu Netflix Disney

plus and a newspaper subscription right

and so this is and then you get into

like the discretion of like do I really

need the Starbucks or am I going to go

buy it at home and am I going to use the

old mugs that I have or am I going to go

to GameStop and buy you know the Pokemon

mugs also right

off

um Etsy is the canary in the coold mine

and I was really expecting them to tell

us that there was some form of optimism

coming see look at what we had in this

meet Kevin uh post that we did in

February okay I want you to see this so

the last time we had earnings because

this will show you a change over time

does anybody ever remember writing five

paragraph essays in school and they

wanted to do like change over time

essays in AP like a push anyway change

over time okay what's the change over

time look at

this uh plenty of cash to cover

short-term obligations sees etc's modest

active buyer growth in the US and strong

for

international and they're expecting

volumes to decline low single digits

year-over-year okay so the growth is

going away fine but now the headwinds or

or like that that you know some pickup

in some of those buyers that's gone now

it's turned into consumer wallets remain

squeezed the headwinds are real consumer

sentiment remains distressed the

international market that was growing

has turned into macro is quite

challenging especially in the UK and

Germany consumers feel pressured they're

seeking value and discounts and China is

providing that our sellers have no

pricing power even regular Spenders are

spending

less yeah I mean you could see all the

screenshots here okay it's it's bad it's

very bad and and so maybe Etsy just

sucks you know maybe maybe that's it

maybe etsy's just trash and it's

over but then we need to also look at

Starbucks which okay maybe they're

getting beat up because of China but

then maybe we should also start thinking

that if we keep making excuses on the

consumer then we might end up getting

blindsided and I don't want to get

blindsided McDonald's for

example let's just put it this way

they're now announcing a $5 meal deal I

feel like they used to have a dollar

menu now it's the $5 meal deal and the

$5 meal deal is a an effort for

McDonald's to quote lure the consumer

back in other words the consumer is gone

comp sales in Q2 so far are quote

roughly

flat this isn't good people were cut

back on the Mickey of the dles and now

they're coming out with discounted

Burgers people back folks we're not

going to have to worry about inflation

anymore we're going to have to worry

about deflation because you're going to

take a simulated consumer you're about

to turn them into a dead horse and

people are going to

go can can you get it up

again

hello I don't know I don't

like maybe maybe I'm just being too

bearish but let me put it this way right

now the greed and fear index is at

neutral I think we're about to go to

extreme fear I don't want to say that I

I don't want that to be true or the case

that's bad but look this is where we are

right now we're at neutral and uh we're

at Greed for Market momentum I think

this is going to go all the way down

over here to extreme fear within the

next three months why do I see that look

we've had the volatile swoosh the Nike

vol swoosh recovery we've had it it's

been great it should keep going could it

keep going could we be wrong here

absolutely inflation could really

impress to the downside and maybe We're

Off to the Races next week consider

inflation the forecast for inflation

right now uh are sitting at uh let's see

here we've got uh CPI month over month

is expected at 4% and oil dropped like

crazy so I'm kind of surprised by that I

I would have thought that oil would have

drugged that down a little bit more so

maybe we'll come in low on that CPI

month over month but the CPI core is

expected to grow by. 3% month over month

next Wednesday and I mean maybe we'll

get like this glorious uh Miss and we'll

get tws across here you know we really

want to be closer to 0.17 to get to

about 2% for the inflation Target for

the FED uh but those are the

expectations right now and quite frankly

you've got Bloomberg this morning saying

after consumer sentiment data things

have quote taken a distinct turn for the

worse yeah that's because the consumer

drives this economy and so when people

wake up and realize oh crap the consumer

drives everything the consumer is the

one who buys the GPT subscription or the

FSD subscription or the AI subscription

for their you know Workforce

subscription at their office so they can

have co-pilot the consumer is the one

that either Buy or uses all of that and

if the consumer loses their job then

their boss buys less seats for Microsoft

co-pilot consumer loses their job they

have to go cancel their GPT subscription

then growth on the lack of software

revenues we're seeing anyway for AI

evaporates the uh AI boom of building

out AI servers is built and then what

happens well you sit around and twiddle

your thumbs as you wait to get through

the nasty times and the market crashes

uh I I

the AI valuations right now are at a

level that assume we are just going to

keep booming forever and some of it is

somewhat

ludicrous maybe we will and and I hope

so because if we boom forever the market

won't go into a recession or the economy

won't go into recession everything will

be just

fine but look at the qes The Q's have

topped out these are the q's right here

let's go to the average candlesticks

it's a little easier to say we can't

seem to get above this line we just got

through earning season earning season

started out good started getting a

little worse when we started getting

into the the you know the midcaps and

the consumer the consumer was really not

fantastic in this earning cycle AI

Microsoft they did pretty good uh at

least decently though you did have some

downsells obviously after earnings

though I will say the earnings overall

were good for this quarter just you're

starting to see that slowing growth uh

in some of the forecasts and so you did

get some sell Downs okay whatever so

topping out on the q's you're also

topping out on BTC we know this we also

just got we're on this channel this is a

pretty obvious downtrend channel right

here we were trying to break out this

morning look at this this morning we

broke out above my 617 line I wouldn't

have known because I was

asleep but anyway we broke out uh around

10:30 uh uh sorry this is 10:30

yesterday my fault we broke out around

10:30 yesterday and start Ed running

throughout the day uh and right here we

got our University of Michigan sentiment

data which we'll touch on in just a

moment and what happened right after we

got that sentiment data within the next

30 minutes we dropped 1.2% then another

nearly 2% uh and here we are now down

about 3.4 in the last 24 hours right

straight through that line not even a a

a lick of a pause at uh that 617 line

now maybe we'll

recover but the point is is the Bitcoin

in my opinion is a leading bad Omen for

the markets it's a great Omen when it's

running it's a bad Omen when it's

trending down and I'm looking for

catalysts that are going to say it's

going to be able to run again in the

near term now I understand a lot of this

is what I call fundamental trading

people like Kevin you're just a Trader

you know what that's right I

fundamentally trade when I

see things that don't make sense in the

economy I get nervous and I say you know

what I'm pack my bags I'm going to hedge

a little I'll spread out my stuff into

multiple different bags and diversify

just in case things get a little loony

out there uh make sure we got our good

old what do you call them the go bag at

multiple different spots in the house

that's uh you know the go bag the one

with your med pin your bandages and your

Glock uh anyway

um you got I don't know man these are

the cues

uh this is sqq let's go to spy where's

the Spy so the S&P 500 basically uh same

thing uh you you you have you're trying

to top you're trying to break

out I think you're you're going to be in

for a world of a rejection here again I

could be wrong but we've had some

Euphoria after Jerome Powell suggested

hey you know we're at Peak rates I think

he suggested we're at Peak rates because

he has to because maybe the inverted

yield curve will actually end up being

right it just ended up taking a little

bit longer we're the most inverted or

we've been inverted for the longest

period of time quite frankly ever but uh

we're at 37 basis points inverted

consumer sentiment this morning didn't

help at all as well as inflation

expectations which almost feel like

they're dis anchoring a little bit or de

anchoring um but I'm I'm not even so

worried about inflation I'm more worried

about what happens when the consumer

collapses and the canaries and the coal

mine start turning into the coal mine

collapsing

look at consumer sentiment first of all

I want you to see this expected change

in unemployment during the next year

we're at the highest level since

2009 briefly had a little bit of fear

there at uh the beginning of 2023 as

some of the big techs were laying off uh

although stocks started Rising again so

you did have a little bit of fear but

why all of a sudden are we getting this

skyrocketing of fear again this time

it's not the first round of layoffs this

time it's the Deep Cuts this time it's

the Javier Malay chainsaw Elon Musk

we're going to expand the supercharger

team we're just going to or number of

superchargers we have don't worry we'll

invest 500 million into superchargers

we're just going to fire everyone at our

company on the supercharger team that

happens to have experience with

permitting land use negotiating leases

negotiating Wind win deals for a

longterm with uh operators of the

facilities we'll just get rid of all of

them and we'll let our competition like

BP or EV go or blink hire all the Tesla

folks that just got fired yeah that's

not something that you do when you think

you you have enough cash to really get

through the year and it's not something

that you do when you think you're going

to grow a portion of your business

dramatically I'm

nervous uh this and and Tesla's just

Tesla's just the

beginning all these

people they're going to be the first to

stop buying on

Etsy I mean I understand they were

probably paid uh you know reasonably

well while they were working at Tesla uh

and their stock has probably performed

oh wait uh so you know I mean I'm sure

from their their earnings they've got

plenty of savings but now you got to

find a new job and you know I just think

of the anecdotes of people and this is

just an anecdote we know plural of

anecdote is not data but I just think

how sad it is you know there was a story

that was circulating on on X or Reddit

or whatever where basically an engineer

got fired in December took him three

months to find a job lands a job with

Tesla in March 72 hours before he's

supposed to get his badge here in

May sorry your position's been

terminated that's scary

how is somebody in a position of that

level of

uncertainty going to buy anything on

Etsy well let me tell you this they're

not how are they going to buy the latest

iPad they're not they're going to buy

the stuff they need I think that's one

of the reasons why Walmart and Amazon

and Costco are doing well right now

because you've got basically this you

know people just have to spend where

they where where they think they can get

the best deal where they can get the

best value and it's sort of like what

Etsy said people are discount driven and

looking for the best

value uh so it's concerning so not only

do we have this expected change in

unemployment so basically fear going up

of people getting fired I mean here's

another one look at this one uh oh I got

to fix that typo here those making 150k

or more worry about it

more uh 72. 48% of those making 150k or

more worry about being fired versus 50 .

26% of those making 50k or less mind you

these are really high numbers you know

job security concerns are rising and

it's not good like job security concerns

going up imply that people are starting

to see some writing on the wall where

they're working and they're going crap

you I mean maybe if you're like a

startup that's well capitalized and you

could write out whatever storm there is

there's there's less concern obviously

but you're at some of these big

companies that are beholden to their

shareholders and uh they got to prove

some EPS growth in a depressing

environment more people are going to get

asked it's scary so uh again I I I you

know I said I I really hope I don't feel

too Doomer and gloomy here but this it

feels like a very bizarre time you know

I want to give you another analogy and

then I we we still have to hit those

expectations but I want to give you this

analogy

and remember an analogy is a comparison

using like or as so I want to compare uh

2024 to 22 11 and 2019 I mostly I'm

using those just to pick something

within the last like 15 years here right

so in 2019 what was the world like oh no

China and the US have a trade

war in 2011 sure you had you know

uprisings in Egypt and that and Steve

Jobs were signed but what was the fear

in 2011 oh no there might be a double

dip recession that'll tank real estate

ended up being the

bottom in 2020 it's like we're all

United against Co we're all from you

know working from home and everybody's

United against

Co and what do you have

today well business feels like it's

slowing down for many people people it's

this is probably the hardest time ever

to be an entrepreneur and grow a

business probably the hardest time ever

could you imagine trying to be a realtor

today A lender today or trying to grow a

business and and get more clients in

this sort of

environment people are going to start

having like blood coming out of their

eyes cuz they're they're staying up so

late going I need to find more

work you know I'm not trying to make a

joke out of that I think that's that's

sad it's

depressing consumer sentiment crash this

morning we're going to touch on that but

I mean think about this cash liquidity

is extremely tight we talked about the

banking charge offs that the entire sort

of industry is just sort of

like all right so where were we that

it's still on my mind debt payments are

rising uh spying the cues are topping

geopolitical crisis just feels gross you

know the Israel Gaza issu is not ending

Russia Ukraine Sudan government data

says everything's fine and GDP is

supposed to be like 4% but I think it's

like delusion

prices are high uh which is still

frustrating people we talked about job

security concerns you got the

immigration fear and the Border crisis

protests going on uh it just it feels

like a lot a lot of negativity and who

knows maybe maybe that's just emotional

but I don't I mean it's not just me you

could see it look at the

data year-over-year sentiment and

conditions are up but month over month

is collapsing the index of consumer

sentiment on a month-over-month basis is

down

12.7% now yes we are up across the board

on the year-over year we are better off

than where we were but what concerns me

is not the comparison to last year it's

the trend now because if this 12% turns

into another negative 12% and another

12% and another

12% we'll be in the depths of sentiment

in the span of well two or 3

months so it is concerning uh and then

of course we saw the inflation

expectations so so so my take right now

uh is twofold first of all hug your

family focus on your health take a walk

start running work out get away from the

insanity of your phone delete you know

Tik Tok and Instagram and X or whatever

and just just get value try to get value

in what you're what you're listening to

uh and and get different perspectives

you know listen to bullish arguments

listen to bearish arguments and and then

make up your own mind you know how's

your s how are you doing

leave me a comment down below how are

you doing how is your your job how is

your wife's job how is your husband's

job how are your kids' jobs if they have

jobs um or if they're old enough to have

jobs I should say because if they're old

enough to have jobs and they don't have

jobs maybe that's actually

AAL uh and and is there really this

belief that we're about to just rocket

ship up to the next level here I I don't

know I how I guess I just don't see the

Catalyst or earnings supposed to beat

this delusional level that we've already

hit I mean I guess what could Skyrocket

markets is uh you get a a big CPI Miss

uh well which would be a beat it's it's

weird how they word it but but basically

instead of getting like 04 and. 3 you

get like 0.1 and 0.1 and then

everybody's like

yay we're going to start making a trend

of inflation disappearing again just

like we did at the end of uh

20203 which could entirely be Poss I

don't know if it'll happen as soon as

the April data but um inflation could

definitely take down rapidly but the

question is is the consumer still going

to be alive at that point I don't know I

don't know so I can't help myself but

feel a little depressed so uh you know

as usual I I send out alerts to some of

my thoughts and trades that I'm making

in the stocks and psych group uh it did

open up

uh a little bit of an out ofthe money

short

probably a bad idea but it's it's not

it's not a big trade I I don't I don't

know I'm just I'm just starting to

create it and I'm starting to think to

myself okay maybe uh maybe I establish a

little bit of a position now and then if

CPI comes in

worse I'll double triple down on uh on

that

short oh I don't know maybe uh maybe I

just need to like take a vacation to a

beach and have a beer and it'll all be

okay I do think it'll all be okay the

question is is your business going to

survive is your job going to survive is

your mortgage going to survive is your

you know like is your business going

those are all really important things

there's a reason my real estate startup

has zero debt there's a reason I am

heavy in cash right now like me

personally it it doesn't really matter

because it's like look if it runs great

if the markets run guess what that's

fantastic for my startups uh everything

everything will be just fine if the

Market's full we'll survive we'll be

fine because we have cash I'll survive

I'll be fine because we have

cash so like either way it's

fine I don't really have this fomo

feeling because again I think well if

the market skyrockets then the startups

will do really well too so it's okay

it's sort of like I've I've got so much

invested in in in different directions

that that it really like either way

it'll be

fine um but uh getting through this this

2024 you know obviously you got the

election cycle but I don't I don't

really look at the election cycle so

much when I think of macro uh but

getting through this next year is going

to be the big one for everyone I think

anyway thanks so much for watching good

luck goodbye why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

goes congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin P there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

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