If Your Win Rate Sucks, Watch This Before Your Next Trade

Analysis is only one part of trading.

The entries and the exits are what

matter most because it's this area here

where the money is actually made. So, in

this video, we're going to talk through

entries and exits. I'm going to show you

how to form the highest probability

entries for your trades, how to maximize

profits with your exits, and how to plan

contingencies so that if a trade goes

bad, you can still get out for a

minimized loss or even a profit. All of

these things are going to help you to

become a better trader. So without

further ado, let's get into it. So what

exactly makes a good entry? Well, for

our entries, we want to look at high

probability and maximum profit

potential. If we can achieve these two

things, we will have a good time

trading. To achieve high probability, we

realistically need to be in line with

the trend. And we need to have our stop

losses safely positioned so we don't get

stopped out on a trade that's actually

correct. To maximize profit potential,

we need a reasonably tight stop loss

because this will allow us to build our

riskreward along with a refined entry.

These two things together create large

riskreward which will amplify the

profits that you can get from your

trades. So there is one great entry

model that does all of this and that is

this entry model here which I call a

confirmation entry. Now to run you

through how this entry model works.

Basically we're looking at price

structure. So the idea is here for a buy

side example, which is what we're

looking at. This would be your buy

point. You'd be looking to take the

market higher. What you want to see here

is a market shifting from lower lows and

lower highs into higher highs with a

break of structure here and higher lows.

And when the market creates this shift,

the formation of this higher high, which

pushes over the previous structural

lower high, this is the point where the

trend has shifted, which provides great

opportunity for you to take a buy

because we know the market is now

impulsing to the upside and we can

actually look to essentially join here

and ride with the next movements of the

market. So there are a few aspects to

this confirmation entry. The first is

structure. We need to have a clear

understanding as to which way the market

is going by identifying the highs and

lows. In a bearish example where the

market is creating lower lows and lower

highs, we will be looking for a shift

into higher highs and when we formate a

higher low, that's where we get in. The

second aspect is going to be supply and

demand. Now, these are zones that you

can buy from. They're generally created

as a consolidation before a large upward

move. In the case of a demand zone, we

use this to actually place our buy

order. In this confirmation entry

example, after we've created this higher

high, we would look for the market to

pull back to the clear demand zone. And

we would look to buy from that clear

demand zone with targets extended. We're

going to talk about those soon. And our

stop loss would go underneath the low of

the trend. So, what we've actually

created here is a high probability

opportunity. Why? because we are moving

with the new direction of the trend

breaker structure here. We are now

moving in an uptrend because the

market's forming higher highs and higher

lows. And the second thing is we've

created a high riskreward area because

what we've done is buy from what we can

essentially call an extreme point of

interest. So the market's pulled all the

way back to its lowest point, which is

where we've looked to get into the

trade. This allows us to get the refined

entry and also the tight stop-loss that

we want. But because the stop loss is

situated underneath the very low of the

movement, it's also a high probability

stop. So although it's quite tight, we

shouldn't lose this trade unless we are

wrong about the position. Now, of

course, sometimes being a probability

driven market, we will just see this

movement take place. When this happens,

we will lose a trade. But we won't lose

a trade until we are proven wrong. If

the market comes down to here, providing

it doesn't break underneath the lower

low, it can still move higher. So, by

having our stop here, we're in the most

optimal place. We limit our losing

potential and we have a high probability

trade. But if we are proven wrong by the

market, we're out for a quick small

loss. And the exact same entry model,

but flipped upside down, can be used for

selling trades. Here we're looking for a

market that's shifting from higher highs

and higher lows into lower lows,

creating validation of a downtrend. Then

we can sell from a supply zone, an area

of consolidation before a large down

move. We get our entry here, stop above

the high, which provides a tight but

safe stop-loss, and then we get to

maximize profit on a high probability

position to the downside. Now, the

coolest thing about this entry model is

that you would expect it to only be used

in reversals like this. So where the

trend is completely shifting. Now these

are great entry models for catching

reversal trades because you get to catch

the start of a new trend and you can run

the market down for quite some time.

However, we get another benefit from

these and we can actually use them in

continuation trading. See what we can do

here is actually use demand zones inside

of an uptrending market like this

example. And we can use the confirmation

entry inside of a demand zone. So

although the confirmation itself is

showing a reversal, we will essentially

be looking at a reversal of the

shorterterm price action. So if the

overall trend is up inside of these

areas here or these areas here, we're

going to have shortterm downtrends.

Right? So what we would be looking for

is a break of a short-term downtrend

inside of one of these price ranges as

we come to meet a point of interest like

a demand zone. And then we would place

our orders to buy our stop loss beneath

and look for the market to come in

retest here which would be this instance

here. And then we take the market higher

from there. The concept there is we're

seeing high time frame agreement which

is an uptrend and we're seeing low time

frame agreement which is a shift in the

small trend. So when we see that break

of structure there, we can confidently

buy this higher low because we know the

larger trend is up and now this smaller

trend is up as well. So it is not an

entry model reserved just for reversals.

We can use this reversal theory inside

of the smaller trends in pullbacks in

buying markets and we can actually use

the confirmation entry to confirm

continuation trades as well. Okay, so

taking a look at this example, this is a

bullish market and we're going to break

down the confirmation entry from this

trend. So it's pretty clear at this

moment if we take a look at the highs

and the lows in structure that the

market is in an uptrend. It is

continually forming higher highs and

higher lows. Okay, so in order to

validate a confirmation entry, we would

essentially in this instance be looking

for a bearish reversal. We'd be looking

for the market to move down. Now, while

it's in its process of going up, we

could simply continue to look to buy

demand zones. But if the market does

create reversals, that is then going to

open doors to utilizing the confirmation

entry so that we can get some good

trades. So, the first thing we need to

do for this confirmation entry is mark

out the structure. The current

structure, the only structure that

really matters to us right now is the

structure that is taking place in the

current zone because this is the current

leg of movement. Now, what we want to do

is mark our high. So, the trend high is

going to be there right now. And we want

to mark the higher low that led into

this move. So, we're essentially looking

for the higher low. Now, because we had

this wick driving down slightly under

this low before the high was formed, our

actual higher low is going to be the

bottom of the wick. We want to make sure

we've got the full range covered. Okay.

So at this point we have our high and we

have our low. For a reversal

confirmation entry we would want to see

this market come and close underneath

this level. So we would need to mark

this area for closures. That is what

would validate the reversal and that's

what allow us to actually utilize the

confirmation entry. So if we run this

market forward a little, we see we have

this bearish candle which closes

underneath the previous structure. And

now if we consider what we discussed, we

are actually seeing the confirmation

entry in action. Right? So we have all

of this formed so far. We have the break

of structure which is this level here.

The break is just there. We have a

closure which is just here.

We have our lower low which would be the

low of the wick. But the closure is

essential by the way. You need to see

the candle close underneath the

structural low in order to actually

provide you with your validation. Okay?

If this was just a wick and then the

market pushed back up, that would be

seen as a rejection. So this closure,

the fact that this candle, this gray

candle here, closed beneath this low is

essential. So we have everything up to

this point. And now of course we like to

use supply zones for our entries in a

selling opportunity. Now as I said we

are essentially going to be looking for

consolidation before a large down move.

Well we can see here we have a

consolidation where the market has moved

sideways and then we have our down move

which has created the bearish breakin

structure. Our supply zone therefore in

my trading personally is going to be the

last candle before the impulse. So an

impulse is of course this movement. It's

the impulsive move that's broken the

trend and created a new downtrend. The

last candle before the impulse is this

blue candle before the push down. So,

what I would want to see here would be

for the market to return to this level

and then I would sell into this movement

because this is now the supply zone that

essentially kicked off the move. The

idea is if we get back to that level

again, we should see new selling

pressure coming in. So, for this trade,

we can now go ahead and place an order.

Our entry would be on the supply zone.

For safety's purpose, we can put the

stop loss above the high. This is going

to be around a 30 pip stop. We're

realistically usually just going to be

looking at riskreward profiles as

opposed to the actual amount of pips. Of

course, if we can push this for a very

big target, in this instance, we're

going to just go for a 1 to three. We'll

talk about targets soon, then we can

maximize the profits. Okay, so pips

don't really matter too much whether

this is 30 pips, three pips, 10 pips, 15

pips. What matters is the

risk-to-reward. So, in this instance,

the risk-to-reward ratio is three.

Meaning if this trade wins, we win three

times what we risk. This is a good level

to go for if you can do that

consistently. You only have to win

around 40% of trades to be rather

profitable. So now we have our full

validation. Okay, we have our higher

highs and higher lows breaking into

lower lows. We have our supply clearly

defined. We have our order placed and we

are looking for what we've covered

previously, which is to sell from supply

and then to place our entry on the

supply, stop above the high and target

down into wherever we're going to

target. We'll talk about exits after

we've covered these entries. Now, if we

allow this market to run forward, you

see we get a tap in to that area of

supply and the market reverses

completely, actually pushing down

considerably more. Now, this allowed us

to catch the start of a reversal trade.

Okay, but as I did say, it can also be

used in continuations. So, let's go and

take a look at an example of that just

now. All right. So, here's an

explanation of continuations. Here we

have a market that is consistently

making higher highs and higher lows. All

right. We can see that the latest

printed structure essentially looks like

this. We have a high low high high low

low high high low low high high. So for

a continuation trade we would be looking

for the market to pull back and then

continue trading higher. Right now

obviously in this instance if the market

was able to break underneath this low

with a push down like this that would

validate reversal which would then allow

us to capture a reversal confirmation

entry. Providing the market stays above

that low, we can look for opportunity

for our confirmation execution. So, we'd

want to see a movement like this taking

place, which would essentially validate

that this low time frame structure here

is reversing to the upside in line with

the high time frame structure, which if

we average it out is of course also

moving to the upside. What we can see is

we have this area of demand. Now, this

has pushed down lower. This is what we

call a datadriven wick. So, if we're

marking an area of demand somewhere

that's been affected by economic data

where the market gets messy, I'd

essentially look at this last candle

before the impulse, which is the

consolidation, but I would draw the zone

down to around wherever the low is.

Right? So, this creates quite a large

demand zone. Little bit difficult to

work with, but providing that we see

this confirmation entry somewhere inside

of this uh demand, we should be good.

Now, we could also use if we wanted to

the fib area between 71 and 88. I like

that area. This would be the prime area

to see reversals in. That's just the 71

to 88% pullback from this low to this

high. Okay. So, anyway, we'll leave that

for another video. We need to focus

right now on the entry. So, the next

movement is to wait for this market to

align. So if we take a look at this

market from a 15-minute perspective, we

can see that we have from this high some

downward trending structure. Most

significantly inside of the movement

that we are currently looking at, we've

seen the market create this lower high.

We then saw it create this lower low.

And if we take a look at what the market

has now done with this push up here,

it's actually gone and created a higher

high. Okay, so this tells us that this

market is reversing. We have our break

of structure line which is here. We have

our push to the upside to create a new

high which is here. So what do we do

now? Well, we're going to look for a

demand zone to buy from. That's going to

be last candle before the impulse in

this market. That's going to be this

gray candle before this bullish impulse

away. So this would be our area of

demand for this movement. We can

actually now refine the entry and the

stop loss. Targets wise, let's keep it

really simple. We'll just go for the

next high. Okay.

So, we can place our buy limit order on

the demand. We can put our stop under

the low because we know if the market is

able to get under this low, that would

reaffirm the downtrend. That would

basically break what we've seen in this

uptrending structure and it would just

drive us back into a downtrend. Right?

So if we saw this movement taking place,

essentially this break here, we don't

want to be in this position anymore. So

we would be happy to have our stop loss

there and accept if the market gets that

low, we'd rather not be in the trade

anyway. For our target, we are just

going to look at the next swing high.

Being a continuation trade, essentially

what we look for in continuations is for

the market when we get into a trade to

at least go and take out the next high.

So, in this instance, this is our

previous low. This is our previous high.

Now that we've pulled back around 80% of

the move, we're going to be looking for

at least a push up towards this high.

Now, for continuations, you can of

course look to extend your targets

further, but we're just focusing on

entry models at this moment in time. So,

we're just going to be simple and use

that high. So, your trade would look

something like this. As you can see, the

market comes and taps into the area of

demand. Following that, we then start to

see this market pushing to the upside

and eventually we see that target met.

Okay, so that is a full breakdown of a

continuation version of the confirmation

entry. You can see that to get this

position, all we did was identify a

market that's moving up, identify an

area the market is likely to reverse

from, and then identify agreement on the

lower time frame. So when we saw this

trend breaking to the upside, we know

this is a bullish trend in the short

term. We pair that with what we see on

the high time frames, which is a bullish

trend in the long term. And now we have

agreement across time frames, which

allows us to confidently, comfortably

get into a trade to take the market up

towards the next high. So that is the

way that we approach confirmation

entries from a continuation perspective.

Right now, we need to talk about exits.

So, what makes a good exit? Well, high

riskreward is one of them. We want to

make sure we're maximizing profit from

our trade, but also high odds of being

met. It's no good getting into a

position if it's at It's no good setting

up a trade with a target so big that

it's probably never going to get tapped.

So, for high-risk reward, we need to

make sure that our trade target is not

too close to the entry so that we're not

getting out of trades too quickly. And

for the high odds of being met, we need

to make sure that our target is sitting

in a logical area that is likely to be

hit by price at some point in the near

future. Let's go to the charts now and

talk about some good exits. Right? So,

in the case of a continuation

opportunity, so when you're trading

inside of a trend, the simple target,

the most simple target that you can

select is going to be the previous high.

Okay? The local high. So, for example,

if you've bought the market at this low,

the most simple target is going to be

this high. We know the market is moving

in an uptrend. So, on its way to

creating a new high, the easiest place

to just get out of a trade with a sure

win or as close to sure as you can get

is going to be just targeting the

previous high. Once this movement has

been created and you buy this pullback,

just target that high. That's going to

be the most simple logical target for

you in a continuation setting. again.

Then if you bought here, you would

target here. If you bought here, you

would target here because you know if

the market continues in this uptrend

that you're buying, you're going to get

these targets filled. To showcase this

in a real example, of course, the trade

that we just looked at over on this

pair, we used this as the target, which

is simply the local high. So we get in

here, we know on the way to making a new

high, it's going to pass this level. So

we can take profits there. Same case if

we'd bought here, you would look at this

local high as your target. If you bought

here, you'd look at this local high as

your target. If you'd bought here, you'd

look at this local high and so on and so

on and so on. So that's the easiest way

to use targets in a continuation trade.

Now, there are other ways. Let's take a

look at some now. Now, sometimes you are

of course going to want to take your

targets further than just local highs

because of course in a continuation you

understand the market is likely to keep

going after you've made your entry. So

therefore, it makes sense for you to

want to extend targets further and it

makes sense to actually do so. Now, this

also goes for reversal trades. Let's say

in this instance, you'd gotten into your

trade all the way down here at the low,

right? You got in at this low. You don't

want to just take profits at the local

high because you're getting in at the

start of a new trend. And if you take

all of your profits here, well then your

trade is going to be very small compared

to the potential that it actually has.

So what we're going to do now is take a

look at using previous areas of interest

to actually select your targets. So in

this example of an uptrend, let's say we

have one buyer who got in here. Okay,

don't worry about the entries for this

example. I just want to focus purely on

exits. You've also got a buyer who

joined the trend at the latest point

that we just discussed. So he is in over

here. Now when it comes to choosing

targets, we can actually look to the

left. So in that instance, we're going

to be looking over here. And we can use

price action to the left to determine

where targets could be. To do this, we

can use and the most common thing I will

use is supply and demand. So those

zones, those areas of consolidation

before large up or downward moves. I'm

going to jump us to the 4hour time frame

here so that we can see zones a little

bit more clearly and get a better zoomed

in view of the market that we're looking

at. So what we would do then is simply

look for areas of supply in this

downtrending move and we use those for

our targets in this uptrending move

because we understand that these supply

and demand areas are where the high

probability reversals take place. So

here we have this last candle before

this impulse down. We could use this as

one of the targets for our trade. So we

could actually take profits once the

market comes into this level. We can

even look higher and there are actually

further supply zones that the market

could potentially reach into. So if we

wanted to, we could use for example this

target for our trades as well. Now we

can do something we call partial profit

taking. This is somewhat of a

contingency plan. And that would mean

that when we had this first supply zone,

we could potentially take a part of the

profits or a partial here, but we could

leave the rest of it until here. Now I'm

going to see how the market runs. We can

see that in this instance the market's

actually come down, created a new higher

low and then pushed up towards that

overall target. Okay. So had we taken

these trades, we would have obviously

filled the full target. But by taking

partials, for example, at this first

area of supply, so if we'd taken say

half the position here, this guarantees

that even if the market was to create a

full-blown reversal after hitting this

target, stopping this position and this

position out, we would have still made a

profit on both of these trades because

we'd have taken some profits here. And

then by continuing through to this

overall target, yes, we take a smaller

profit overall because of course we took

some here, but we locked the rest in up

here. So that's one contingency method

you can use to make sure that you profit

even if trades do reverse on you. But

you can see how simple this is to use

these areas of supply as your targets.

Now I'm not sure how this market

reverses or if it continues from this

point. Let's take a look. You can see

though the first point of which the

market actually started to slow down

significantly was indeed this area of

supply. That's why supply zones can be

so good to determine targets for buy

trades because if anywhere is going to

actually create a reversal, it's going

to be supply zones for the most part. So

by taking profits at the supply zone,

you're basically setting yourself up to

win, even if the supply zone creates a

large reversal in the market because you

got in here, you got out here, and now

if the supply zone reacts, it doesn't

matter to you because you're already out

of the position. So, the easiest way to

find high probability targets for your

trades is just simply to look to the

left. As long as you have some price

action to work with, which you will in

pretty much, I'd say 95% of scenarios.

Only if you're trading at two all-time

highs does this become difficult. But if

you are trading not in all-time highs,

which is the majority of markets pretty

much all the time, you can use previous

price action to actually target for your

new trade. So in a buy scenario, look at

previous areas of supply. Example sake,

in a sell scenario, you would look to

the left and identify previous demand

zones to actually take your profits at.

If you have multiple zones, you're not

sure how far the market's going to go,

you can of course do that partial taking

system where they discussed, meaning you

would take some profits here and then

you would leave the rest to run down to

here. So to visualize and recap

everything we've covered so far in this

class, the best entry model is a

confirmation entry like this using that

structural shift and demand to buy into

the market. It can be done in the case

of a reversal such as this market

reversing from down to up. Or it can be

done on continuation trades. If a market

is already moving up, you can use the

lower time frame price action to join

the market and take it higher from an

area of demand. This would be a

continuation. This would be a reversal.

When it comes to taking your profits,

there are a few areas you can do this.

The simple way to approach profit taking

is going to be local highs. This would

be the easiest way to get into a

position and get out of a position by

simply targeting the local high.

However, this does limit your profits.

So, for many of your positions, you

probably want to take the market a

little bit further. That's completely

understandable and probably a wise move.

So the best way you can do this is to

use previous areas of supply in a buying

move as your targets as these are the

high probability reversal points. If

there's going to be anywhere the market

flips, it's usually going to be from a

supply zone against an upward move. So

using these as your targets would be a

very good way to make sure you lock

profits in before market reversals take

place. It also allows you to extend your

targets further than just the local

highs. Now, for contingencies, as we

discussed, we always want to make sure

we can get out of a move with some

profits. If we ran a market this far,

there is no reason to let this reverse

all the way on us. So, for contingency

exits, we can actually use that partial

taking approach, which would mean

taking, for example, 50% of your profits

here and then taking the other 50% up

here. This way, if the market gets

halfway up to this area, or if it just

straight reverses from this supply and

makes a big push to the downside, well,

at least you've made a nice profit of a

few% before that reversal took place.

So, always planning those contingency

exits and making sure you're prepared

for the worst case is a good idea, too.

Now, there are a few other contingency

exits that we can cover, but I'm not

going to do it in this video. If you

click the video on the screen right now,

that's going to take you to a video

where you will learn all about stop-loss

trading and some other methods you can

use to protect your trades. So, I hope

you've enjoyed this one and I hope you

enjoyed that one, too. Thank you for

watching and I'll see you in the next