i'm nervous

reminder the cpi data comes out at 5 30

a.m pacific time i will be live on the

meet kevin live channel i'll link it

down below

hey everyone me kevin here a few things

first i'm nervous about cpi tomorrow and

i want to give you a little bit more of

a detailed preview of kind of where the

range of estimates are and second this

is just a quick one if if you're really

buying real estate right now

i think you're making a mistake

just saying uh you know and i rarely say

that i've

for 10 years ever since 2011 when

i'm like oh my gosh this is like a

bottom i'm buying real estate like crazy

and then every year it's like as soon as

i save the money like

right

uh i'm a big fan of buying huddle real

estate

not now

wait

wait for the effects of interest rate

increases to hit

and that will hit multiple hit

multi-family it'll it'll hit the

supplies

the supply shift we're going to see is

going to be brutal and it's going to hit

the nation

across the board uh it's going to be

rough now this video is supposed to be

about cpi and tomorrow but i figure let

me just give you a quick note like

the people right now who are buying

multi-families single families

investments whatever

i think they're setting themselves up

for failure

the second thing about real estate is

that people keep seeming to have this

response of oh but kevin

who's gonna sell real estate

people sell real estate every single

month for whatever reason people like oh

why would a seller go from a low

interest rate to a higher interest rate

people just do

and it's not just people who sell homes

it's tenants who vacate and then people

sell homes it's investors right whether

they're institutional or mom and pop

people selling second homes

uh you know people moving in with family

and selling their original home i think

people think that a seller absolutely

has to

buy a new home

it doesn't work that way or they move to

a way cheaper area where it doesn't

matter

so i think people who are uh

who are really so uh full of hopium are

gonna be uh sorely surprised

uh but anyway

so

cpi

and the stock market

i'm a little nervous about cpi data

tomorrow because i really do believe we

have rubber banded below the zero

percent on the fibonacci for the qqq

solely out of cpi fears

not out of fundamentals

we should not be below the zero percent

uh we we should be way up above the zero

percent line and so the estimates

tomorrow

are going to be really critical for

determining how we invest going forward

because if you know we're expecting cpi

to come in low tomorrow and if it shocks

to the upside

it tells us that we still don't have a

grip on how to actually measure measure

price changes

postpandemic

that would be terrible

the estimates should be relatively close

when we first started getting inflation

it made sense you know when we first

started hitting these crazy inflationary

numbers it made sense that when we had a

cpi estimate let's just say we had a cpi

estimate on the monthly uh you know

month over month of oh i don't know

0.4 right when we first started getting

these results and then you know most of

the estimates were here this is your

consensus and you had some people i like

0.5 you know 0.3 or whatever

and then we get something like 0.9 right

or or 1 or something crazy like that

when we get a miss like that it just

means oh my gosh people are getting rug

pulled we're we're getting something

that we're not expecting right

the reason tomorrow is so important is

because we're going to get two things

number one not only are we going to get

confirmation that maybe

core inflation is actually continuing

its decline which would now be two to

three months in a row of core cpi

decline but it'll also be very important

for

giving the world confidence that our

estimates can actually function again

that we can get back to some semblance

of normalcy and when estimates work we

have less uncertainty in the marketplace

so we get two things ideally tomorrow

one certainty that estimates are not

just blatant failures all over again and

number two

we actually get cpi data that confirms

we have peaked on inflation and we start

rotating down i am hopeful you know

jerome powell and the fed have suggested

hey it looks like we may have peaked but

we won't know with certainty basically

until june july august

we're tired of waiting for inflation to

go down

best case scenario for these markets is

we get green

or a good hit tomorrow and we could go

back to having some semblance of

normalcy in the stock market that

doesn't necessarily mean we're not in

recession i think we're in a recession

it doesn't necessarily mean that we're

going to go to all-time new highs i

actually i think that would be terrible

i would sell everything if we went to

all-time new highs uh but i'm not

married to this idea that i have to be

all in in 2022. it's it's a crazy market

so we'll see but take a look at this all

right

right now the bulk of the core i'm sorry

the headline month-over-month inflation

estimates which it's not just cpi for

tomorrow this is this is just the crazy

thing about the week okay so you can't

just make a bet on cpi if we get

mortgage applications uh tomorrow we get

cpi tomorrow then we get ppi producer

price inflation thursday morning then we

get sentiment

expectations on thursday those are all

important i mean we literally are going

to have wednesday cpi read and mortgage

read then thursday we're going to have

uh producer inflation reads and then on

friday we're going to have uh inflation

anchoring you know the anchoring of

inflation expectations which is super

important and the next week we get

retail sales on the 17th which is i

believe that's monday uh no seven days

that's tuesday

anyway

yikes like there's still a lot of data

coming but if we could get a good hit

over here on cpi plus ppi ppi is also

expected to come down i'm just gonna

read you off some numbers really quick

latest estimate uh last month for

headline cpi was 8.5 we're expecting 8.1

we're going from month over month of 1.2

which was insane the march read to 0.2

core 0.4 on the month over month right

that's really critical ppi is expected

to go

for on a month over month from 1.4 to

0.5 substantial decline sentiment is

expected to decline a little bit but one

year inflation expectations are expected

to stay relatively stable maybe up a

tenth of a percent nominal but look at

this okay in terms of the estimates for

probably the numbers that matter the

most in my opinion and that's right here

this point two percent that's going to

be your headline month over month number

we've got

the analysts right now are kind of split

like this

uh and i do want to remind you

seriously this is we're gonna have the

largest price increase ever on those

courses on building your wealth all of

them because there's gonna be a lot of

new content coming out not just in the

wealth path of course which is still in

development and they're gonna be a lot

of new lectures coming out on that but

also the real estate course because i

really think real estate is really where

where we want to be focusing that

doesn't mean sell out of the stock

market now like now i actually think we

want to be in the market because i think

we're gonna have this disconnect for the

stock market's actually higher and the

real estate markets actually ends up

being lower towards the end of the year

but anyway this is roughly what the

forecast looks like right now so it's a

pretty balanced sort of bell curve that

we have right here that's a bad drawing

of bell curve but roughly and if we get

anything in excess of this .5

or a negative it's gonna be a big

surprise what i'm really personally

hoping for okay this is not what i

expect this is just sort of like

this would be a dream come true okay

we get headline inflation on the month

over month that's your annual your

annualized pace you just take this

number and multiply it by 12 right so if

we get that 2.2 hit what is that that's

2.4 right now my dream on this would be

that we get a negative read but the

problem with a negative read here is

again it would be a sign that why are

the forecasters wrong like now i'd

rather the forecasters be wrong to to

the the downside right that would be

better we want the forecasters to be

good and accurate because we create

certainty but if we're going to have

them be wrong we'd rather than be wrong

to the downside not the upside and we've

regularly been wrong to the upside and

so i think that's why the market's been

so pain if we go to the core which

strips out the volatile food and energy

categories this is what the chart looks

like here and same thing here we want to

see that consensus ends up being correct

something between 0.4.5 if we end up

getting a negative oh gosh would

absolutely be beautiful so very

optimistic for that and i do think that

we're going to have a continued slide of

uh

essentially disinflation over the next

uh

you know six to 12 months here it's

gonna take a while for prices to get all

the way back down but who knows when we

get into 2023 and we start lapping year

over year you might actually end up

getting negative reads uh much more

consistently even on that year-over-year

figure which which then it's like wait a

minute are you serious how do we go from

eight and a half percent inflation to

certainly disinflation which is six

percent five percent four percent and

then eventually you're going to get some

negative reads and it'll be uh quite

glorious for markets because i really do

believe that our economy is quite strong

that's just this temporary inflation

which has lasted way too long

it's gotta end anyway thanks for

watching folks we'll see you next time