yikes... the Jobs Report

hey everyone me Kevin here okay the

numbers just came out for the jobs

report You' probably already heard the

headline numbers which are the payroll

numbers but what we really need to talk

about is what is going on in the

underlying trend of the household

numbers uh as well as what Nick T and

others are just now saying so let's do

this the first thing I want you to know

is that the payrolls report uh is

basically surveyed by calling employers

and saying hey you know how many people

were working this month uh and the

reason we have revisions was because

some people they don't answer right away

it takes them a couple weeks to get back

survey rates are pretty low introduces a

lot of volatility Jerome Powell talked

about that yesterday as well the

household report tries to eliminate some

of this double counting and what's the

trend that we're seeing in the

households report well the trend over

the last 3 months has been the following

it's been

527,000 Jobs Plus to the upside okay and

then we've got minus

282,000 and then we have minus

398,000 that's sort of what the trend

has been that's great uh this would make

you say okay well like these two

negative reads just sort of offset this

right extremely logical like I would do

that too that's why I look at that and

I'm like all right well this isn't

really recessionary really the whole

report that we got this morning isn't

really recessionary right the payrolls

report uh it came in at 227 versus 220

expected the prior was revised up from

12K to 36k we had uh the prior uh of the

private payrolls being revised from a

28k to being to -2k so we actually got a

positive revision here and it felt like

a balanced report but we're not so

worried about being in recession at this

very moment although some people do

believe that depending on what industry

you're in we're actually more worried

about where the trend is potentially

heading uh and how sustainable the trend

is so the household report if we go to

the household report and we actually

remove what's going on with government

I'll show you how you could do that

quickly and then I'll show you why that

matter matters then you get this really

interesting Trend see what you're going

to do is you're going to go to uh the

Bureau of Labor Statistics labor report

just Google that uh and then click on

the first link and go to table alpha 8

so all the way at the bottom you look

for Alpha 8 and then compare the uh

non-agricultural Industries here number

of employers uh compare that to the

government uh section right here uh and

then what you'll end up getting uh are

values that you can compare and you can

go okay how much of these changes in the

households cours were because of

government well over here if we want to

adjust for the government you go minus

785,000 now government actually

surprisingly lost 103,000 jobs over here

uh and then government gained 80,000

jobs over here and so now if we subtract

this we'll get a change in the

households report less government and me

like Doge love less government this is

why I have a trumponomics course of

be.com you already know about that

though uh is still dude I've been

working like 16 17 hour days I have not

had a chance to change the pricing it

just look at these numbers on the board

though you don't have to listen to me

while I write this uh but uh because of

that and since today is the end of cyber

week uh I'm going to probably raise the

prices about a hundred bucks uh if not

$200 because when we get to when this

course comes out in 11 days it's

probably going to be a 700 to $1,000

course so it's going to be pretty

remarkable get it in the pre-sale it

comes out in 11 days which is incredible

so meet kevin.com but look at these

numbers you know what do you have here

well Ah that's not a good trend on the

households report and now if we look at

the payrolls report the three-month

trend is a little better the three-month

trend has kind of been doing this and

it's started going up a little bit right

here this up is a 138,000 job Trend

which is the best since May this over

here this six-month average is actually

the worst of the entire cycle now it's

possible that this section right here is

just being driven by the government jobs

going into the election which actually

means that this 3month trend is not

particularly useful and the more

concerning trend is the six-month Trend

and what's going on with the households

report labor force participation also

declined which isn't good that led our

unemployment rate to go up which then

people start getting nervous about the S

rule getting triggered triggered again

though it shouldn't be because we've

untriggered it which is what happened in

2006 as well uh yeah Su rule right now

is only

043 uh but it's a tick up and so a lot

of folks are worried that uh hey what

does this mean if we keep this household

Trend going for January and February and

I agree that's exactly what we should be

paying attention to and I think there

are reasons to say yeah there are

underlying weaknesses that are

concerning and we should start really

thinking about positioning for 2025 I

think it's already old news for 2025 to

say that bonds are probably going to

perform very well in 2025 but what

matters more in 2025 in my opinion is

how you're going to protect your base so

I want you to think about this you want

flexibility you want a home equity line

of credit if you have a home I don't

want you to take that money to pay off

credit card debt I want you to have that

as a rainy day emergency tool or you

know if credit lines start getting froz

and you draw it you put it in cash right

it's a variable rate load it's something

to think about and you have a buffer

think about delaying some of those

discretionary purchases think about

paying off debt get out of margin debt

look at the profit taking that started

yesterday on micro strategy okay it was

weird we ran over 100,000 micro strategy

was up like 10 20% during the initial

part of the day and then it ended up

closing down down 8% obviously Bitcoin

lost 103 of course there's going to be

some profit taking around that 102 103

level because we just broke above that

but it makes you wonder was that sort of

driven by the last deployment from micro

and at what point do people say okay the

underlying Trends are going to start

driving profit taking I don't know I I

I'm not saying that you should be taking

profits but what I am saying is do

whatever you can to make sure you're not

heavily exposed to Leverage or margin

right now because the underlying trends

when you look closely at them they're

worsening and they're not improving

which could mean things are bad next

month or it could mean that things are

bad within the next 6 months who knows

those are the underlying trends that I

do not love and so that's why I want to

make sure everybody's protected and as

safe as possible uh something else that

I'm noticing is we're now at an 82%

chance of a 25 BP cut in December I

would say that's pretty much confirmed

uh and uh you know sort of got that

reiteration of Powell suggesting he's

ready to support the labor market uh

with with everything they've got as well

so anyway me kevin.com thank you so much

for watching be back home I cannot wait

very soon thanks folks bye