Why Roblox is Falling — My NEXT Move

so here's roblox currently down 6.19

after a pretty big run that we've had on

roblox we were we were up 2.28

today which follows a pretty red day

yesterday

but roblox stock itself on the day chart

has actually been crushing it take a

look at the day chart here on roblox

we've gone from

ipo pricing in a closing of about 67

per share and we really had some

flatness and weakness at first

we had a lot of resistance around the

mid 70s

multiple times did we attempt to break

out of about that

60 sorry 76 to 77 level

and it really took until the end of may

may 20th to be specific

to to really start seeing a push in

roblox stock

and that's where roblox all of a sudden

ran from

somewhere around 74 all the way to a

peak

of just over a hundred dollars closing

at 166

with an intraday high of just over

103.87

pretty incredible move here but over the

last five or six days here it's been

really softening

despite volume being pretty decent so

volumes maintained its

strength here with around 14 to 15

million shares traded per day way up

from the two to four million shares

traded per day previously

but we've today had a six percent

decline in the after hours

you could see this decline forming here

probably a little bit easier to see it

on the five-minute chart there we go

so you can see it was a pretty flat day

it was up about two percent of the day

however now we're kind of plummeting

here in the after hours

and the rationale for this actually has

to do with this release here daily

active users were 43 million for roblox

so remember roblox is

sort of this ecosystem i kind of

personally like to think of it like

uh the game store version of an app

store

so you know how you have an app store

and you get a bunch of different apps in

there i kind of think of like roblox as

that store

and we've got a daily active users for

roblox

up 28 from may of last year

but this is where people are getting

spooked down one percent

from april of 2021 and see this is

something that we've regularly talked

about before because this is what we

think is going to happen with inflation

as well

we know that the market has been getting

very very spooked and we saw this coming

we were talking about this on this

channel this is why you always want to

subscribe to the channel we were talking

about this back

in in november and december of last year

i go folks

i you better buckle up for volatility

because when inflation comes in

and people start seeing inflation doing

this they're not going to realize it's

temporary and we're going to see people

freak out every time we get this

inflection point

and these upper lines here are really

what what i expect to be

uh we started seeing this sort of fear

in feb because folks knew it was coming

and then this has really been reiterated

in march april

may and so far in june but i personally

believe we're kind of going to hit a

peak and that's going to be that june

data and we're going to kind of see this

july

fall back down and once we get these

changes and directions

that's often what investors are looking

for so that has to do with inflation

but what you have here is you have this

this monthly trend at roadblocks of user

growth and even if that user growth is

slowing because

this is growing user growth right this

is like exponential growth

here what you might have is is something

like s-curve style-esque

where you kind of have covid giving you

exponential growth over here

and then you start getting this slowing

but what really freaks investors out

is when the slowing actually turns into

a slight decline

which this is for example what like

negative one percent could look like

that right here is an inflection point

and that freaks people out so why is

roblox stock down it's solely because of

this inflection point here

now even though ours engaged were 3.2

billion up nine percent year over year

and up one percent from april of 2021

so even though hours of engagement went

up

the amount of users went down

potentially because of our reopening

whatever whatever whatever

and and that's starting to freak folks

out a little bit now the stock has

had a wonderful run you know not not

wanting at all to bash the company here

by any means

i think it's had a wonderful run

personally i wouldn't mind

buying the thing again somewhere close

to ipo pricing

i you could see this line that we've

drawn here at about 65

57 you can see this is a pretty stable

line

we've regularly visited this we visited

this on ipo day we visited

after ipo we revisited it again a few

months after the ipo

uh and now sitting at where are we now

and after hours

after hours right now we're down about

eight percent we're about 82

82 puts me about right here uh on the

day chart after hours doesn't show up

but

it puts me about right here i think

there's still some room to go

it puts me this is not really i think a

good support level so i wouldn't be

surprised if if we do hit that mid 70s

again

which was a pretty rough previous

resistance

for the stock so it is possible that we

go back

you know if i were to draw it i'd

probably draw it

um yeah 78

70 76 i feel is a little bit more of an

average of the issue that we've had over

here

it's not the cleanest line here ever but

that's what i would be expecting is to

be able to go back

into here if we could break through 76 i

think there's a big buying opportunity

on on roblox

you might not like roblox long term

though but that's just a little bit

of why roblox fell and what i might be

looking for

for for a cheaper entry price and if it

doesn't go down there i don't care

and then i won't buy so as always check

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