The Market Selloff & Government Shutdown | A Warning to All.

did we just get closer to a recession

and what is the Federal Reserve Eerie

warning we need to talk about in this

video we are going to cover all of that

we're also going to touch on the fact

that now Big Lots is going out of

business the corporate buyback Blackout

Window has begun which means no

corporate BuyBacks to prop up lofty

share prices and some are accusing Jim

Kramer of just ringing the bell at the

top of the market with Donald Trump

causing the market to crash others say

this has everything to do with the

government shutdown that starts tonight

at midnight in line with the expiration

of the trumponomics coupon code sale

expiration Tesla's under 420 markets are

red pre-market and expected to be red

during the day but we'll see what

happens NASDAQ lost 51720 yesterday

which is a pretty important line and

Bitcoin sold down a chunk though it did

bounce a little bit after we got those

pce numbers this morning some were

worried that the Japanese carry trade

2.0 is about to take place maybe another

banking crisis people freaking out about

the yield curve and the Philly fed gives

us some warnings in this video we're

going to break down all of this and more

so let's just get right into it uh first

one of the most scary things that some

folks are bringing up rightfully so is

the letter from the Federal Reserve the

fomc statement from October 31st no not

this year but

2007 I highlighted it for you and ignore

the blue because that is different that

talks about the housing correction but

just listen for a moment to everything

outside of the blue that's highlighted

in yellow and red and I want you to

remember that this was 14 years ago

before the Great Recession this is what

it sounded like the fomc decided today

to lower its target range for the

federal funds rate by 25 basis points

economic growth was solid in the third

quarter and strains in financial markets

have eased somewhat on balance readings

on core inflation have improved modestly

this year but recent increases in energy

and commodity prices among other factors

may put renewed upward pressure on

inflation the committee judges that

after this action the upside risk to

inflation roughly balance the downside

risks to

growth which is eerily similar to what

we just heard from Jerome Powell that

the risk to the labor market and

inflation are roughly balanced that

inflation has recently ticked up a

little bit again causing little bit of

concern though hopefully it just ends up

being a technical issue or rounding

issue and that inflation truly isn't a

problem the eeriness of how similar that

letter is isn't great it's leading a lot

of people to reiterate that remember

when the FED cut 50 basis points they

did so on the exact same day in

September in 2024 as they did in

September of

2007 and this is why a lot of people are

now looking at the New York Federal

Reserve which posts an indication of the

probability of a recession in the 12

months ahead and they argue wow it

dropped the odds of recession actually

plummeted from around 70% to around

33.5% but wait a minute this is the

probability of a US recession predicted

12 months ahead in November of

2025 and so what actually happened if

look at 2007 is you also saw the odds at

the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008

plummet that we would be in a recession

in 12 months because the market started

indicating yeah we're not going to be in

a recession in 12 months because that

would be say the middle of 2009 will

already be through the recession that's

happening say within the next 9 months

so this is making some folks nervous

that actually a fall of this recession

probability 12 months out could be an

indicator that the reason the recession

indicator is falling is because we're

about to go through one now that's not

great nobody's excited about that and a

lot of people were referring to the pork

barrel uh Government funding bill that

failed yesterday as potentially a reason

why markets are uncertain we're going to

break that down and go through that but

first Mary daily did have have some

commentary this morning so let's start

with that let's hit what's going on with

some of the PC inflation numbers we'll

look at some technicals here and we'll

make sure we talk about that Government

funding bill as well because I know a

lot of people are concerned about what's

going on there I do want to mention that

some folks have asked us hey would it be

okay now that the market is starting to

correct a little bit to extend that

deadline at house hack.com for the

offering that we have you know the bond

yield and it's a convertible so you get

all the upside in the stock and you get

a 5% yield some people are like hey man

look if the Market's going to turn here

I'd like to diversify into maybe the

private Market uh so if that's you if

you are interested in that maybe we can

pull that off we'll see email us at IR

like investor relations househ hack.com

okay so uh with that Mary da this

morning says that policy is in a good

place she says that positive sentiment

amongst firms is giving her

enthusiasm now I personally think that's

crazy that sentiment amongst firms after

you had a presidential election of a

republican which generally always leads

to a boost in sentiment would actually

lead the Federal Reserve to say oh okay

well everybody's so excited maybe we

should be a little tighter I think

that's kind of dumb because sentiment

changes very very rapidly uh and I don't

think that's really a way to lead the

Federal Reserve uh especially since you

know when the Federal Reserve was

excited two days ago you know we were at

greedy levels in the stock market uh and

and all of a sudden Market momentum I

mean we were almost at extreme greed

levels in terms of Market momentum and

all of a sudden when you look at the CNN

greed and fear index oh wow look we're

at extreme fear see sentiment changes at

the drop of a hat I don't know that our

Federal Reserve should really be guiding

their policy decisions on B like

business sentiment but then again uh

they've lost a lot of credibility during

this last cycle and it seems like

they're just continuing to lose even

more anyway inventory building up is

causing a reason to be cautious says

Mary daily this actually aligns with

what the Philadelphia fed warned a

little bit uh this report actually came

out yesterday very very few people

talked about it and I wanted to bring up

some of the details from the Philly Fed

so this is what the Philly manufacturing

uh indicator read it indicated the

lowest level of manufacturing since

April of 2023 okay not going back too

terribly far the index for new orders

and shipments both declined and turned

negative all right that's not great and

the employment index EDG

down but more than 70% of firms reported

no change in employment levels in this

month just 177% reported increases that

actually didn't sound too horrible uh if

it stays that way but it's worth noting

this current activity bar doesn't look

great just because we're getting back to

the lows that we saw at early 2023 and

I'm worried that potentially those could

continue if we end up seeing this

buildup in

inventory remember the whole point of

what Mary Daly here is saying is that if

inventory builds up then manufacturing

slows even more when manufacturing slows

even more because inventory builds up

that's when you truly start seeing more

layoffs and unemployment gets hit and

when unemployment gets hit that's when

consumer spending plummets so the order

in which a recession takes hold

generally starts uh with a buildup of

inventory

then the layoffs then the spending goes

down then the unemployment claims

Skyrocket then the unemployment rate

goes up right this is why some of those

latter things are Laing indicators but

then again there was some hope because

this morning we did get pce numbers

which came in a smidge lower than

expected personally I think we're not

facing an issue of inflation in the

cycle we're facing an issue of deflation

but not everybody agrees with me on this

I think most of the categories that are

left in terms of inflation because I I

go through every single inflation report

every single time in detail the

categories that are left of inflation

are really super lagging I think most

companies have really lost their PP and

you don't want to lose your PP when

you're a business you need pricing power

otherwise you're screwed so I I'm very

disappointed in over the last year

seeing how much pricing power has just

absolutely been destroyed at companies

and so it it has made me more nervous uh

than typical anyway uh pce did come in a

little bit lower than expected this

morning PC and core PC both coming in at

.1% month over month versus the0 2

expected year-over-year numbers did Miss

by 0.1% as well personal income missed

by 0.1% and personal spending matched

this did help boost Bitcoin by about

$1,500 right when that number came out

but from a trading point of view I'm

still a little bit nervous because take

a look at this yesterday in my courses I

sent this post you could see here

yesterday at 7:41 a.m. this is an

example of the kind of trade alerts that

I sent but actually this is more of a

trend alert because I send Trend alerts

and trade alerts like if I actually

actually execute a trade then I'll be

like hey look I bought this option uh

whereas this is a trend alert uh setting

up for a trade so I wrote this QQQ at

decision Point 5720 was my warning this

morning when the qes were at

$520 bouncing here is critical otherwise

I worry we may or we could start a few

days of a selloff losing this line may

put options uh desirable for the third

week uh may may make I guess I type with

that but anyway you get the idea may

make put options desirable for the third

week of January so basically buying put

options a month out for some of the

volatility that we're about to

potentially experience uh and what

you'll find is if you actually line this

up with the line that I have over here

that 51720 when we lost the line here

after you know failing to break break

out twice on it with what looked like a

double bottom we really just continued

to lose and lose and lose that level

which is not great and this is leading

some people to say Hey Kevin thanks for

having a launch sale for the

trumponomics course which comes with all

of these stock alerts so if you want

those alerts where all of a sudden you

get a little ping on your phone oh Kevin

sees a trend or Kevin has a trade idea

make sure to join trumponomics today you

can grab it by going to meetkevin.com

comes with some critical Tax Strategies

you could still implement this year and

next year obviously under Trump uh as

well as insights into stock growth

sectors real estate analysis job and

income strategies negotiating strategies

sales strategies everything related to

Trump and making money in the economy

even if you don't like Trump now with

that a lot of folks are also asking me

Kevin what about the carry trade well

it's worth noting that the Japanese Yen

is sitting at about the same devalued

level as it was around July 10th

remember the Japanese carry trade blew

up over here because all of a sudden the

Japanese Yen had lost so much money that

people had to cover uh their uh their

margin loans and their loans on US

Stocks basically uh and that led to some

Panic selling now that did end up

leading the yel yen to fall afterwards

but if you notice July 10th was our

summer stock market Peak we were at 161

Yen per dollar if you look at where we

are now we're at 156 pretty dang close

to the same levels we were at that peak

in the summer now Tom Lee is saying hey

man just back up the truck and buy the

dip and maybe that's the right strategy

after all uh AT&T is mandating a 5-day

return to work uh that is return to

office in January which kind of follows

what Amazon is doing a lot of people

think this is just a quiet way of trying

to fire people who can't go to the hubs

AT&T has see AT&T for example says all

18,000 of you must go to the hubs that

we have in Dallas Atlanta La Seattle St

Louis Middleton or Bedminster New Jersey

well what happens if you don't live

close to there you'd have to potentially

move well moving and trying to get a new

home or even a new rental in this sort

of e economic time or around the

holidays might be a little tough anyway

uh Bond yelds are up roughly 100 basis

points since the Federal Reserve cut 100

basis points and this adds a lot of

restrictiveness to the economy just as

the corporate Blackout Window is

happening Big Lot is going out of

business and a lot of people are angry

that Elon Musk should now be called

president musk because he has so much

control over Donald Trump almost like a

puppet master others say no he was just

trying to kill a wasteful bill I broke

down what was inside of the bill in

another video so I won't break that down

again now just look on the meet Kevin

Channel and you'll see exactly what's in

there in fact the title of the video is

Elon and vi just killed a wasteful

Congressional spending Bill see that Ty

that in with me Kevin with that said the

replacement a shorter Bill substantially

shorter bill in fact you could see a

picture of it here uh looks like it

should be a whole lot easier to pass

after all this 1547 page bill was

destined to pass and this one was

destined to fail oh wait that's the

opposite of what it should be yeah this

smaller or shorter Bill failed miserably

uh in fact fact 38 Republicans voted

against it including people like Tom

Massie who keep posting on X about how

great Elon Musk is and how all of his

ideas are wonderful yet he also

contributed to voting against that

shorter bill that shorter Bill did call

for extending the debt ceiling by two

years to sort of open the door to what

Donald Trump could do with the

budget but it wasn't convincing enough

to get uh 38 Republicans on board with

it and you only got two Democrats to

vote for it and since Republicans don't

have control of all Chambers yet until

the beginning of next year this is not

only potentially a preview of the

gridlock of what's to come but it's also

a sign that even if you have control of

all houses you might not convince all

Republicans the government shutdown

deadline is tonight at midnight and

there are arguments being made right now

by people like Bernie Sanders and AOC

that uh Elon mosque is a billionaire

who's trying to rob people of Defense

contract money your money for Pediatric

care research and it is true there was a

yes give kids a chance Bill added in as

a rider to the continuing resolution to

keep the government funded it's a

smaller bill as part of a larger Bill

package now a lot of people including

Tom Massie and V and musk say hey why

don't we just vote on these bills

individually like why do we keep doing

these giant package deals why can't we

just do them a little bit at a time

individually to keep the government

funded H separately from the debt

ceiling separately from funding the

government's uh defense contracts to

cancer research like we can pass these

separately and there's a reason for that

see it's worth noting that Congress has

operated like this pretty much forever

Congress is a two-party system and it

rarely passes legislation compared to

really other forms of government so when

you look at other governments they pass

a lot more legislation than we do this

makes each package like one big package

really critical for negotiating writers

onto them it's kind of like this hey man

I'm a republican I'll vote for your

package if uh you know you let me hook

this little seven page bill in here

because the people donating to get me

reelected wrote it for me I don't really

know what's in it I just want to kind of

slap it in you mind if I do that and so

all of a sudden what happens is you

basically take a must pass Bill let's

call this pink newspaper here the must

pass Bill and you take a must pass Bill

like funding the government and then

somebody comes along and says hey man I

need the New York Post in here and then

somebody else and then I'll vote for the

whole thing all right cool vote secured

hey man what are you going to need to

vote for this well man I'm gonna need me

a slice of the LA Times okay what are

you going to need I don't know man I

didn't read it but I need all this okay

will you vote for it then

yep all right who's ready to vote it's

kind of the way it works and I'm not

saying it's right it's just one of the

reasons this happens is because each

individual bill could get vetoed by a

president and Congress doesn't really

want to give a president that much power

back in the day like in 1996 Bill

Clinton used the line item veto to kill

pork barrel spending line by line like

he'd literally go through and go nope

nope he did that like 82 times in budget

bills and then that got ruled

unconstitutional in 1998 it gave the

president too much power so if each

portion of a budget was separated or

each little bill was separated you'd

probably die in committee you'd probably

get killed by filibusters or you would

just get individually vetoed by a

president that's like nah we don't need

funding for cancer research for

kids not specifically saying that that

particular one wouldn't make it I'm just

saying that's how it could work and this

is why a lot of people are saying well

let the chaos begin of nothing getting

done because even though you're going to

get Doge bragging about how hey look how

we simplified the new bill versus the

old Bill the new the old Bill had a

chance the new Bill had basically no

chance it was Dead on Arrival so some

people are saying that musk and Viv are

going to be great at keeping the

government shut down other people say

hey let it get shut down the government

is so dysfunctional they need to have a

cleansing and if that means you need to

Chaos Theory it you know destroy some of

it to get it all working again then so

be it let me know what side you're on in

the comments down below at this point

it's also worth noting that the uh yield

curve between the 10 and two is

steepening and this is usually how you

get onto your path to uh a recession

generally when the yield curve spikes

you have red markets and so far we've

spiked from about four basis points

uninverted to about 24 basis points

uninverted now that's somewhat arrested

today is yields are catching up a bit

today but usually when this spikes again

to about 50 to 90 you start the

recession that's just historically what

has happened now what else do we want to

pay attention to well there are indeed

warning signs in the labor market that

unfortunately a lot of people just don't

want to pay attention to Jerome Powell

did give us a heads up of some of these

and so it's worth just taking a peek at

kind of what these look like here you go

the job finding rate has collapsed over

the last 2 months you could see the

collapse in the job finding rate over

here on the right it's not ideal and it

looks eerily similar to what we saw in

2001 during Co and in 20072 2008 in

addition the employment deposit

population rate is falling which is

usually a characteristic only seen

during recessions though you did have a

little bit of a nudge nudge over here in

1995 which was associated with a soft

Landing giving Bulls some hope uh then

uh let's see here what else we we talked

about the New York recession odds we

talked about some of the data yesterday

remember this talk about continuing

claims and initial claims these are not

incredibly useful and then the leading

index I think is kind of funny because

the leading economic index came in and

it beat expectations yesterday but it

actually includes stock prices and stock

prices have been pretty euphoric moving

into that so I'm not entirely sure that

the leading index which uses the stock

market could be much of a leading index

for a potential stock market correction

now with all of that said you know me at

this point I'm pretty low on the bull

bear scale I'm somewhere around a 2. to

on the the bareable scale I should call

it which means I'm pretty bearish what

does that mean I'm a big fan of paying

off margin take profits I'd rather see

you pay 30% in profits than to get the

scars that I've gotten in my career I

have tried to avoid paying 30% in

capital gains taxes you know 20 plus 10%

California maybe it's only 20 for you

because you're not in comifornia but

anyway I've have tried avoiding those

taxes by Diamond handing only to go on

to lose 70% instead of 30% to taxes so

consider that I also think I also think

that diversifying is a really good idea

if you want more insights from me

obviously you can always join us in the

trumponomics course just go to

meetkevin.com and that way I can send

you my alerts as well there is a sale

ending tonight when the government's

supposed to shut down at 11:59 p.m.

calling it The launch sale because we

just launched the lectures so you could

be a part of it right away but as far as

you and protecting yourself I always

like to say get out of margin get out of

bad debt make sure you secure your

income because whether or not we go

through a recession it is a logical idea

to diversify to minimize debt I

personally think one of the great ways

you could do that and email us if if if

you want because right now we you know

this this expired but we might reopen it

if we get a bunch of people emailing us

saying look Kevin if you're going to pay

me

5% and I get all the upside in house

hack stock uh you know until conversion

why why would I not do this consider

checking this out go to house act.com

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the single families uh the perks that we

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the way today just email us at invest at

roboh hack. thank you so very much for

being here I wish you all the best and

good luck not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take