The Cybertruck Reveal, Tax Loophole, & Tesla Stock.

hey everyone me Kevin here the

cybertruck has officially been revealed

in this video where we are going to go

through not only the release details of

the cybertruck but we are going to go

through the price target for TSLA and

we'll do that for both the short and the

long term especially Post cybertruck

Release the big question a lot of folks

have is does the Cyber truck actually

change anything in terms of the

potential stock price for Tesla we'll

address that but first let's get into

what Tesla and Elon just announced the

Cyber Tru we already knew that was

coming but did you know that Tesla's

cars are labeled and in order now on

their website as sexy look at that you

have the model S 3 X and Y the three is

obviously used because Ford has the

model e or mock e version and the

trademark on that a lot of people

speculate that we might actually end up

getting sexy cars from Tesla as you can

see we just released the uh C of that uh

some argue that the Cyber quad and maybe

in the future a real version of an ATV

could come out maybe eventually we'll

actually get the Roadster uh along with

of course the semit TRU which the

semi-truck has already started

deliveries so technically all we're

missing here is that ATV and the

Roadster and the whole product lineup of

sexy cars is in which would be pretty

cool now here's the pricing the pricing

is estimated for the top-of-the-line

model to be

$99,000 which is a bit to chew off but

what do you get for

$999,000 well you get delivery in 2024

hopefully 320 mile range 2.6 second 0 to

60 with 845 horsepower now we're going

to compare that to the Ford Raptor in

just a moment so buckle up for that one

thing that is fascinating that a lot of

people are talking about is actually

right here it is this

440 mile potential range you could have

with an optional range extender now

you'll notice that's about 1/3 more than

the range of the existing battery what's

weird about that is that existing

battery that's going to bring this to

somewhere around 320 Mi probably weighs

just to keep math simple at least 1,000

lb

usually the 70 KW lithium iron phosphate

battery from Tesla weighs 1,000 lb so

let's go with 1,000 to make this simple

if you're going to get an extra

25% of range whether you charge it at

the front end or at the back end

obviously be faster if you do at the

front but it's the same power set you're

still looking at about 1/4 of more

battery but if it's 1,000 lb that means

you're going to have to lift 250 lb into

the bed of this truck which isn't

unreasonable we could do it something

with maybe two or four handles so a

couple people can do it or a strong guy

can do it that's great maybe even a

strong woman can do it I don't know but

the point is it seems like it would be a

little cumbersome to take a 250lb object

in and out so I wonder how easy they're

going to make it to be able to take it

out and put it back in some people are

speculating that you just throw it into

the bed basically well it would click

into the bed and there would be some

kind of port for you to plug it into and

that's how you would get this range

extension now aside from the

practicality of how to get this battery

in and out because I expect it to be

heavy it is kind of nice that for that

99% of the time you're not actually

needing all of that extra range you

could just remove the unit I do suspect

that range extender unit will be very

useful as well for the tow capability of

this vehicle given that even though it

can tow we suspect that electric

vehicles are going to be burning a

little little bit more electricity in

tow mode given that you're towing

substantially more weight I wouldn't be

surprised to see the towing capability

of the car being closer to about 200

miles which honestly still pretty good

if you're taking a boat or wave runners

or otherwise as you can see they rate

this as being able to tow 11,000 lb

seating five got rid of that bench seat

in the front the electric uh monitor

display monitor in the center didn't

really cooperate with airbags and we got

20in wheels on this one uh this is the

most expensive top-of-the line unit

which you could pre-order now for

$250 you've got the

$79,000 vehicle right here what you're

doing is you're actually getting

slightly more range in the all all-wheel

drive version here but you're not

getting the power you're going from Two

and a halfish with roll out subtracted

so that's probably more like which is

the same thing the model X plaid has

roughly this is 2.6 the model X sorry is

2.5 both of them with roll out

subtracted also the model S pla at 1.9

is roll out subtracted so probably add

about .2 seconds there uh that means the

cybertruck the most expensive versions

probably putting you at about 2.8 is for

a 0 to 60 whereas this version is 4.1

seconds which is about $20,000 less so

just to corroborate there that's 2.6 on

the cybertruck with the little as risk

for with roll out subtracted and then

over here at 4.1 we do not have the

little as risk for roll out subtracted

do keep in mind this version gets almost

500 mil of range with the range extender

very impressive 340 mile range otherwise

uh you can also notice it is more than

6,000 which is great for those business

owners looking for some accelerate

accelerated depreciation uh same thing

for pretty much all the vergence here uh

and the way that accelerated

depreciation works by the way is really

when you have a vehicle that's over

6,000 pounds if it can carry passengers

and of course check with your CPA about

this isn't tax advice for you and these

rules change all the time they phase out

and they bring them back it's crazy so

it changes all the time but uh the 179

deduction was that if a vehicle is more

than 6,000 pounds used for business you

could accelerate depreciation on this if

it's like a sprinter van with just cargo

behind you you could literally write off

100% of the car but if it has the

capability of seating passengers behind

you you're usually limited to a bone

bonus depreciation of an extra $25,000

up front and then straight line on the

rest which isn't bad because I mean if

you think about it if you buy a $100,000

car uh and then you depreciate the rest

of the car over just to make math easy s

and a half years you're depreciating 10K

per year plus 25k up front which means

your first year deduction would be about

35k on it that's not bad and that's some

really quick math obviously talk to your

CPA about that but that's how the 179

deduction would work in case you're

wondering about them as far as the

lowest entry price you're looking at

about $60,900 about $11,000 more than I

had guessed for this type of vehicle the

entry level vehicle this is your 250

mile range vehicle 6 and 1 12 seconds 0

to 60 this is the rear wheeel drive

model we actually don't even have the

weight spec on this one probably because

they're not even focusing on

manufacturing this vehicle uh at this

point uh so this one will be a while

which makes sense because as as a

company gets to scale in vehicle

production uh remember you have sort of

this slope of scale in E economics uh

where the cost is extremely expensive to

make your first car it's less expensive

to make your 100th car it's less

expensive to make your thousandth car

than between a, and maybe 500,000 it's

roughly the same cost but then you have

to get a new facility and it starts

getting expensive again that's just an

example of economies of scale super

super big basic explanation here a point

is though it would make sense that if

you're going to have a lot of costs

upfront to start by delivering the most

expensive vehicle especially since then

it'll be exclusive and the people who

are paying $100,000 will get the

eyeballs of having this car I think one

of the big benefits of this car is going

to be marketing I think this is going to

be a marketing tool for electricians

real estate agents Plumbers Local

business owners sign companies rap

companies people are going to do some

pretty cool things with this because it

is a head turner a lot of people think

this car is ugly a lot of people

absolutely love it doesn't matter though

everybody's looking at it Tesla's also

expecting to introduce some accessories

although they regularly say they'll do

these accessories and they kind of back

burner those so I wouldn't hold my

breath for like a light bar that you

could install on top that's extra this

camper tent that you can use extra

obviously uh one thing that does concern

me about the camper is I don't actually

think you can open that back window

which means you're probably not going to

be sleeping in that bed of the truck

with the tent using the heating of the

inside of your car because I I I don't

think there's a way to connect the two I

could be wrong if this window opens it'

be great because then you could seal up

your tent turn on the heater inside the

car and heat up your tent as well not

convinced that will actually be

functional and as you can see it's a

five-seater here uh now uh this this

sort of spare wheel thing this is very

Tesla where they don't actually include

spare tires or Wheels like emergency

wheels and so uh they're like hey well

you could just use your bed if you

really want to the bed is 6x4 which does

not fit a sheet of dry wall uh you can

put the bed down but if you put the bed

down you're obviously going to have to

tie your load down to make sure it

doesn't all go slipping off the back so

it I mean this is pretty standard

standard to see a 6x4 bed so it's not a

surprise a lot of people obviously were

hoping for a full 6 by or 4x8 so that

way they could put a full sheet of

drywall or plywood in it yeah then the

next thing we've got I mean this is

pretty generic this is relatively

similar to what you get in the other

vehicles the video um screens in the

front and back great audio throughout

the car the audio is generally very good

and you don't hear a lot of the car

noise anyway since it is an electric

vehicle now one thing that is neat is

you've got a 240 volt plug here and two

standard 120 volt plugs this is

something that Ford's already been doing

with their pickup trucks and it's really

just to demonstrate the idea that you

can you know use your power tools of the

back of your truck when you're at the

job side and let's say there's no power

now we had to touch on this a little bit

so for home backup it's worth noting

that an 11.5 Kow battery in your cyber

Tru is not actually going to be

functional unless you already have the

power wall the problem is the power wall

is like

$8,400 at the time of this recording so

if you have the power wall the power

wall and Tesla makes her own inverters

now they stopped using solar Edge but uh

the power wall will convert this energy

from DC battery energy to something your

house can actually use so if you don't

have a power wall which often times

requires getting a new panel at your

house you're probably going to have to

get some additions here including not

only the wall connector that's okay but

you also need the Tesla Gateway and then

potentially some form of backup switch

uh the backup switch probably not being

the expensive part I'm guessing the

Gateway being the more expensive but we

don't have a specific price on just that

Standalone yet that equipment as it says

here will be sold separately so TBD on

that but I wouldn't expect to just plug

your car into your house and yeah I got

a backup battery not so fast that'll

work if you have the power wall which

will actually be kind of cool because

it's almost like having another Power

wall so I do think that's pretty awesome

and it's kind of brilliant as a Tesla

investor because I think wow that is

going to motivate people to buy the

power wall and the power wall you know

there are high margins on these people

misunderstand that Tesla is also an

energy company and the amount of money

you can make on power walls is

phenomenal uh so this picture though

little bit misleading because it kind of

just shows oh look you can power your

home and it just shows a lady walking up

to the power uh the wall connector unit

but it doesn't actually show a power

wall at this property which yeah

apparently this is some rigged house uh

but I mean it looks cool it's like

cybery and apocalyptic which is what

elon's going for here uh but you would

need the power wall or that gateway to

actually make this function however you

could charge other vehicles with it

which is kind of cool because especially

if you get the extended Range model

you're going to be that friend everybody

calls when they run out of electricity

in their cars although frankly I I don't

know how often that really happens now

with how common the supercharging

network is but it can happen if you want

to extend the range in your Tesla I

highly recommend you turn off Sentry

mode that thing is a battery suck it

will drain the snot out of your battery

it's just not worth having on uh like

I'll I'll have it parked somewhere at

you know 80 mil it go down to 40

overnight with Sentry on I turn off

Sentry it's down to like 78 so it's not

that important for me I got insurance

for a reason Tesla insurance for that

matter uh anyway here's the uh to

compare the Ford F-150 Raptor this

vehicle has a a 0 to 60 of 3.6 seconds

as you can see right here uh to to

actually get these 702 horsepowers you

have to buy the extended uh V8 engine

that's going to start being very

expensive in fact if you go to the Ford

website and you add The Supercharged V8

it's going to cost you

$31,000 no that's not for the car that

is a feature that you can add to your

car that takes you from the V6 to a V8

yes and then your total cost of this

Ford Raptor is actually basically

$110,000 about $110,000 more than the

Cyber Tru uh so keep in mind this has

705 horsepowers the uh horsepower the

most expensive Tesla sitting at 845 for

10,000 less and a quicker 0 to 60 in

fact they did a great job showing a uh

race between a off-the-shelf sort of

Porsche 911 3.9 second 0 to 60 and uh

take a look at this clip and notice if

you see what they did with the Cyber

truck because it doesn't seem that much

faster at the finish line but watch what

is behind

that's and Tesla stock the most

important thing thing for this company

is this right here we've got to get

inflation prices down or the prices of

things starting to flatten and ideally

even Trend down into the scope of maybe

even deflation that would be fantastic

for Tesla because not only would it mean

rates could come down which would bring

down financing costs for the vehicles

but it might actually bring back some of

that delicious margin that Tesla used to

have in a low interest rate environment

so the fact that we are seeing a

year-over-year change of pce personal

consumption expenditures inflation

coming down and the fact that if we take

the last 6 months we can actually see

that decline has been greater see how

that blue line is lower than that orange

line right there that's basically saying

what's the inflation we've seen over the

last 6 months and let's look at that

over a year as opposed to looking

strictly over a year so you can see

there's been more in disinflation over

the last three uh six months that is and

if you look at over the last 3 months

you're roughly aligned with the last six

months the you had a little bit of

volatility there so here's some of the

thoughts that I have for what the

cybertruck could mean at 60,000

deliveries at $100,000 a piece I'm

suspecting about a 15% margin at the end

of 60,000 units produced we're only

looking at about a 6% boost to the value

of earnings per share and potentially

therefore the stock so not really a big

impact you don't really start seeing a

big impact from the cybertruck until

this gets to much more scale which would

be about

2026 if we can get to 500,000 cyber

trucks in 2026 which elon's goal was 250

by

2025 maybe the uh end of 2025 250,000 if

we can actually ramp that to about 500k

so I'm going more conservative 26 but

then pricing in some more optimism or or

for 25 I'm more conservative pricing in

more optimism for 26 that's where I

think we could actually see the Cyber

truck contribute about $2.50 to earnings

per share for this company on an annual

basis which would boost EPS by about 32%

so some real potential upside if this

vehicle doesn't flop and that's where we

have some short-term risks I suspect

short-term you're going to get a lot of

videos of people hating on the

cybertruck you're going to have I think

a very hard Q4 where people are

incentivized not to buy a Tesla until

January 1 because of the $7,500 tax

credit being available immediately

rather than at your tax return so you're

better off getting the card Jan one

rates are just maybe starting to Trend

down a little bit but there's still so

much economic uncertainty we can't be

100% about that and in addition to that

any of this first set of manufacturing

scale difficulty or drama associated

with some of the first deliveries of the

Cyber truck that's all going to hit the

news within the next 3 to 6 months so

probably you still have a little bit of

an anchor on the stock for the next

three to six months however it's

entirely possible that once it is

totally clear to say let's go buy this

stock it's entirely possible that by

then the stock is substantially more

expensive as other people have already

started pricing this in ahead so uh

that's somewhat my take short-term again

bearish but I don't want to sell my

position in it because I worry that if I

sell my position in it just to try to

avoid pain over the next 3 to six months

then if I don't have a chance to buy in

again because all of a sudden the

company beats on deliveries one quarter

or whatever or some research report

comes out and the stock is up 10% or 30%

in a matter of days it's happened before

Tesla usually has these Cycles we like

to call them the 21 Day Tesla rally

cycle and usually when those rallies

start everybody's like okay well I'll

just wait for it to come back down and

then it just does this and and and then

it you know kind of Peters from there

but it doesn't go all the way back down

here so that's historically and

anecdotally what I've seen Tesla do so

sometimes when it moves it moves rapidly

but otherwise yeah buckle up uh for the

short term for the long term was pretty

exciting so if you like this check out

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Monday when Mikey is back Mikey is

presently at Giga Texas going to check

out that cyber truck thanks so much for

watching and we'll see you in the next

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estate broker and becoming a stock

broker this video is neither

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otherwise personalized advice tailored

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potentially including those in this

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