You're Being Lied to AGAIN | The Fed's *WILD* Flipped

holy moly another day another flip and

another group of people lying to you

let's get started with the LIE then

let's talk about this potential fed flip

it's actually kind of shocking okay

we're gonna respect your time and keep

this short here first things first

there's the this this very very common

Trend that I'm seeing on Twitter and

what people are doing is they're saying

hey look UPS workers just got this

massive pay raise and even the workers

over at American Airlines just got this

massive pay raise look at this poster

they say American airline pilots approve

record contract with higher pay every

one of these is extremely visible they

get into the public eye for a reason

others want the same hello wage price

spiral in other words here's yet another

person to sell you fear Doom and Gloom

that the wage price spiral is coming now

I'm going to be transparent here and you

know this because all my videos are

still public my history is clear in

January of 22 I say said the biggest

risk we have is a wage price spiral it

never happened we were over that within

the first few months because we realized

the wage price spiral wasn't happening

then and it certainly is not happening

now but understand how they're lying to

you here and after I tell you how

they're lying to you here you need to

see what Nick T just said about oh man a

potential flippy floppy doodly are you

ready for this so understand this the

article says if you just read the first

line Pilots approved a new contract that

provide that would provide a 46 percent

cumulative pay raise okay if you stop

there well then you post crap like this

on Twitter but it actually says it's

over a four year term but not only is it

Over a four-year term but the last pay

raise pilot Scott was in 2019 and if you

now calculate the kagger which I did

you're gonna see what you're looking at

first of all I replied to this and said

what are you smoking their last in their

last pay raise was the last pay raise

was in 2019 right they're finally

catching up they deserve a pay raise

somebody else then replies and says 46

though to which I reply and go it's been

four years since 19. 46 over four more

years that's eight years now what you

have to compound

4.68 growth over eight years and that's

what you're going to notice

oh that's how you get to the 46 so in

other words the compounded annual growth

rate of wages here over the last eight

years was just 4.68 that's not a big

deal that's not a wage price spiral it

really does not matter the fed's average

industry goal is that wages go up three

percent and guess what this is Aerospace

you're telling me in Aerospace with a

massive pilot shortages we've been

having in the massive amount of travel

and entertainment spend 4.68 is your

definition of wage price file it's a

complete loony bin argument whatever I

just want to show you how people are

lying because it's this kind of stuff

that is not based in reality and it's

pathetic next Nick T just mentioned

something that could indicate a Fed

flip-flop and actually he mentioned a

couple things uh which is actually kind

of interesting because the first thing

that he mentioned uh relates to what we

were talking about just now with a wage

price spiral so let's put that nail in

the coffin then talk about the FED flip

Nick T here says data from Gusto a

payroll and benefit software company

serving more than 300 000 small and

medium businesses shows that pay rates

for new hires are five percent lower

than they were for new recruits the same

time last year now this is actually not

a surprise because course members and I

have been analyzing this in our course

member live streams when we notice that

take a look at some of the stuff you're

hearing here's a zip recruiter earnings

transcript imagine actually reading the

earnings calls to understand what's

actually happening in the world but

listen to some some of the things you

got here employers continue to respond

to the enduring macro uncertainty with

caution the number of job openings that

employers willingness to pay for those

jobs has been declining significantly

from the peaks of 2021 and 22. this

trend is consistent amongst both small

medium businesses and Enterprise larger

clients alike and across multiple

different Industries as a result we're

lowering our guidance for earnings okay

so in other words and by the way that's

just zip recruiter there were three

companies we analyzed in that course

member livestream all of them payroll

service providers and guess what every

single one of them said the same thing

payroll expectations are going down job

placements are plummeting hiring is

slowing we now think the BLS is going to

revise how many jobs were hired over the

last six months down by five hundred

thousand now we'll still average 300 000

job gains per month if you even believe

the after revised figure it's clear the

labor market is slowing but for people

to be arguing that the labor market is

going to a wage price spiral you're

absolutely in the loony bin now another

thing that I think is incredible is this

is the first time I have seen this

potential hint from the fed and it's

absolutely mind-blowing so when I came

up with the Nike Swoosh recovery

initially I said and I I've said it

actually every day I'm like I don't know

man I I think it's going to be a

volatile Nike Swoosh and people like I

don't know coming it ain't ball pools

just go straight up like

just wait like it's it's gonna have a

correction and when we just had a little

correction right you know it's green

again so we're covering we're happy

again okay whatever great the volatile

Nike switch why did I create that thesis

I created it because of something known

as opportunistic disinflation and fate

those are big words but it's basically a

way of saying

that after Paul volcker we had Alan

Greenspan and the FED basically took 20

years to get inflation to two percent in

other words there was no rush

and my belief was that because the FED

wants inflation to average two percent

and that there really won't be a rush to

get inflation down as long as its

expectations are stable or falling which

they are

then you could take your time getting

back to Trend as long as it's not

excessive and that's exactly what they

did in the 80s now that was my thesis

for the Nike Swoosh because it would

take people time to realize the FED is

willing to have an average of two

percent and they don't have to be at two

percent tomorrow I thought people would

slowly roll over and think okay all

right I guess I'll get back in the

market and that's what I thought would

contribute to the Nike Swoosh albeit

volatile because I didn't think the data

would just be glorious although

inflation data has kind of already been

glorious anyway listen to who just

mentioned this

last year Jackson Hole was about lessons

from volcker but for the second part of

the fed's inflation fight some form were

fed officials say Alan Greenspan might

offer the template this is from Nick T

I'm like giddy today because I'm like oh

my God this is literally what created

the foundation of the uh uh the the

volatile Nike social recovery and I know

some people like man that guy gets

excited by fed talk I do

okay so uh now listen to this you ready

for this uh we'll open up some more

replies here from Nick t Okay key to the

debate at what point could the FED take

a more patient or opportunistic approach

to the last mile of the inflation fight

quote they've got to get core inflation

below three percent before you really

start feeling good about this now that's

interesting because they're just now

potentially opening up the door to well

if core inflation is say 2.9 percent

maybe we can start calling uh the days

of opportunistic disinflation back this

is amazing this right here listen to his

definition was a strategy of

aggressively resisting incipient

increases in inflation once once it

reached a moderate but above Target

level but not tightening further it's

basically saying we waited okay that's

that's it so and then the upshot is if

the economy doesn't fall out of uh out

of you know if the bottom doesn't fall

out of the economy and core settles then

we could actually allow it to just run

between 2.8 to 3.2

call in the average flexible average

inflation targeting and not cause as

much joblessness this is absolutely

incredible so here is a video on a how

people are lying to you this kind of

garbage I see every day I'm tired of it

I'm gonna start calling it out more

garbage lies bad

second thing great news on the FED

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