*Market Warning: Watch BEFORE Friday July 2*

hey everyone kevin here you've got to

know this information before friday

because it could dramatically affect

your investments so specifically

options if you're in on options you're

going to want to pay attention to this

but it could also affect your stocks

we've got a big catalyst coming up on

friday

we've got to talk about it folks it's a

monthly jobs report and this one

is potentially more critical than any of

those before it

because this is potentially the start of

an inflection point one way

or the other we gotta know what to

expect

now you may have heard some potential

clickbait about

jobs today jobs report for june doesn't

actually come out

until july 2nd which is friday morning

at 5 30 a.m california time 8 30 eastern

time

which i will be up for i will be live

streaming that i will just have returned

from florida because i am heading to

florida to be on valuetainment's podcast

tomorrow which is super exciting so make

sure to tune in for that

at the same time i would ordinarily have

the market open live stream i'll be at

valuetainment's podcast so check that

out if you want to join

uh also i will be holding rallies this

weekend

for my campaign go to meetkevin.com to

see the rally locations

got three this weekend and five next

weekend and more coming thereafter

okay so the clickbait you may have seen

this morning has to do with a private

estimate

by the adp this is an agency that tries

to do a rough estimate of how many jobs

they think this is our economy added in

june

and their report is that we may have

added

wrong screen how about that one we may

have added

692 000 jobs in june which hopefully all

of these people adding jobs

are signing up with the 40 off coupon

code down below for the amazing programs

on building your wealth

which does expire today so take

advantage of that

but anyway there's a problem with this

report this report sounds great

they their press release comes out hey

private sector employment increased 692

000 jobs from may to june according to

their unemployment or their employment

report i should say

hey that's wonderful they break down

these different sectors here

small business medium business large

business great everybody's somewhat

adding equally

service providing up 624

000 out of the whole chunk here great

problem is

even though this number is higher than

expected for the adp report

the may total of jobs added was revised

from 978 000 to 886 000

so it's kind of like they gave us a beat

but then in the details which remember

the devils is

always in the details they actually

revised down the amount of jobs

they think were added in may by a count

of year what is that 90

000 92 000 jobs so it's kind of lame a

little bit click-baity so what do we

actually want to pay attention to we

want to pay attention to

the real jobs report this friday and

here are the expectations

so here we go in april we expected

1 million jobs to be added we only

added 266 000 jobs in april

that was such a big miss the market

freaked out a little bit and we ended up

with a pretty ugly may for a lot of

stocks

a lot of companies didn't do great in

may

but of course the exception of index

funds they just continue to do well

uh but i think that those days are

numbered and we're flattening over in

the index funds

we're going to get uh interrotations but

that's more for a different video

in may we saw the expected

numbers at a 675 000 jobs

and we also missed coming in at 559

000 though not as much of a

disappointment it just means we're

adding jobs

slower than expected and adding jobs

slower than expected is

kind of normal when people are looking

for different jobs they're looking for

new jobs yesterday we talked about how

more people are likely to quit their

jobs or just retrain and get a totally

new job

than they are to stick with their

current job because covert has changed

so much about the way we live

where we live and the way we work and

what we work on and what we enjoy and

what we don't enjoy

and so that's being reflected in this

slower growth in

employment numbers now for june

we're presently expecting 711 000 jobs

to come in

you saw the adp report they're

estimating about 692 thousand

the expectation is seven eleven is what

we're looking for so remember seven

eleven

now my estimation is that we're going to

hit somewhere between

five hundred fifty thousand and eight

hundred thousand

and here's how i think the market is

going to respond if we get these

different hits

so first in the middle here we have 7

11.

you can see i'm slightly biasing to the

downside though because i believe

that the downside is a little bit more

likely than i believe us

beating substantially is likely i think

it's going to take a lot longer for us

to get to lower

unemployment rates uh which which means

more employment right i think that's

going to take more time

so uh that's why i have this range here

if we hit the number

or really we hit anything between here i

think

mostly the market reaction is going to

be pretty neutral it's going to be

pretty bland

pretty meh now the reason this range is

tighter though

is because if we get a number over 800

000

i personally think the market's going to

get a little bit of heartburn they just

ate a little bit too much too fast

got too many jobs too fast and the

market a little bit

is probably going to send the 10-year

treasury

up which that's going to weigh down

on tech but it could actually be a good

leading indicator for recovery earnings

which today is the last day of the

quarter so obviously we're expecting

this quarter to end out then we're going

to start getting earnings

and this could potentially be a leading

indicator sorry this should not be a

down arrow for recovery should be an

unparalleled this could be a leading

indicator for strength in the recovery

sector

if all of a sudden the services industry

in the recovery sector

is adding jobs like crazy and way more

than expected

then i would expect recovery stocks to

pop up nicely

because it's a clear indication that if

businesses are hiring a ton

they've got lots of demand to their

businesses and they see that demand

sustaining so i think that could be

really good for recovery it's going to

be a little harder on

higher value tech or consumer

discretionaries like the etsy's that are

a little bit more

uh you know up there on the pe's the

recoveries even though we've got some

higher data a lot of these companies

have done

very very well i think personally

they're fully valued

but on on a surprise beat i think they

could do well

uh now this is an earnings it's kind of

like an earnings day when you get the

unemployment report

so generally it's a day that after this

day you end up seeing implied volatility

on options go down

so you could see on this particular day

if your contracts go

big green here there could be an

opportunity to take some attendees

take some profits and rotate into some

new options or

whatever or we even wait a few days to

do that obviously no guarantees

uh well if you lose money it's your

fault don't sue me bro i'm drinking uh

what do i got today i've got the

99 slayer mug and a pink straw now

people get confused when i have the

straw

and stick around because we got to talk

about the downside people get confused

when i talk about the straws they're

like why is there a strong coffee i

don't put it in when it's scalding hot

i sip my coffee when it's scalding hot

when it gets cold i use a straw

okay so what if we miss to the downside

well the good news is well you could at

least today still use the 40

off coupon code for the amazing programs

link down below which doesn't expire

today

but if we go miss to the downside ah

okay

so this gets interesting okay so it's

not as clear and cut and dry i think

see i think you actually have another

potential range here

i think if we're somewhere between like

300k

to 500k this is a miss but this is

potentially going to lead

the 10-year to go down 10-year

treasuries down

uh that means we're you know we might

even see depending on how much we could

see the 10-year go down to 1.35 plus or

minus somewhere in that range

we could see tech and consumer

discretionaries

actually do well and i think recoveries

will

will suffer in this now

there is a a problem here though because

if you

undershoot even more and you go under

300k

you could end up leading into kind of

like a

may where all of a sudden it's like wait

a minute this could be so anemic

growth that really you start fawning or

fanning the fears or whatever

of stagflation so you really want to

stay away from the low low level

so as as with everything in investing

there's a whole lot more nuance to it's

just this or it's just

that these are some expectations now

what do i think

is the most likely well if i were to

draw the most

likely here i'd probably say

most likely would be somewhere in the

range here

of 625 to 675

that's probably the most likely range

followed by you know if i were to do

another

likely range i'd probably be like 575

to 750 you know something like that that

would be like my

second most likely range something of

that effect

so i'm not really expecting craziness to

the left or right

but when that report comes out you know

if it's a big miss over here that could

be painful for everything

potentially painful for everything the

reason by the way we think that tech and

consumer discretionaries go up and the

tenure goes down

is because this means there's lower risk

of

interest rates going up so it's a lower

interest rate risk

and if we get an overshoot you know

we're overheating this

increases the odds of rates going up

sooner so

it gives you a little bit of an

explanation there all right folks there

you have it check out the coupon code

down below if any of this uh

talk about finances stresses you out go

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kevin.com thank you so much for watching

folks

see you next one bye

[Music]

you