The Fed JUST Revealed their 2025 U.S. Stock Market PLAN

hey so the Federal Reserve just announced that they want to keep stock

prices propped up which is really good if you're looking to make money in the

stock market this year I'm going to explain what they just said their thesis

and the really only remaining risks that there are to the market or economy not

doing well in 2025 we'll talk about that in just a moment but I also want to

mentioned that there are some companies that you really want to pay attention to

that we haven't covered on the channel and I think they could be big money

movers in 2025 they're companies that uh let's

just say some really big names are paying attention to and making big moves

on and if you want my research on that every single day join me in the market

open livere stream now for course members you can get lifetime access to

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the trumponomics insights for 202 where I think money is to be made in

2025 investment opportunities attx strategies and we'll be updating it as

Trump's policies come out all right so first Barkin just came out and told us

that hey folks 2025 has more upside risk than it has downside risk which sounds

pretty exciting after all when the Federal Reserve tells you hey things are

looking good why not be bullish why fight the Federal Reserve and we've got

we got to ask ourselves why does the Federal Reserve want to keep the market

propped up why was it in August when the market was collapsing under fears of

recession and high unemployment why was it that the Federal Reserve at their

very next meeting came out with a 50 basis point cut it's because I think the

Federal Reserve realizes as I've been saying for many months that we could be

one sustained market crash away from a recession the good news is the higher

the stock market goes which it's been going straight up since basically August

the further we get away from a recession why because consumers spend more money

and that's exactly what Barkin said this morning he said quote as long as

employment and asset values remain strong consumers will continue to spend

the FED is directly pointing to propping up markets here this is leading Barkin

to say Baseline growth for 2025 is positive with more upside risk than

downside risk for growth though 2025 will be a lot about fundamentals so far

it seems like the labor market though may end up breaking towards increased

hiring rather than layoffs now this is a U-turn from the Federal Reserve once

again the Federal Reserve even as recently as drum Powell's last Federal

Reserve meeting has been complaining about the risk being greater to the

downside that we could be getting worse unemployment data Barkin is now taking

exactly the opposite position saying nah man everything's going up what are you

talking about and so this is where this morning's ISM report on business is

interesting you actually have a bit of a mixed bag but when it comes to

employment it seems like you have some optimism let's look at the employment

section first so we go down to employment the employment index uh was

lower than November's read and indicated the seventh consecutive month of

contraction out of the last uh you know 15 months of six big manufacturing

sectors nonone expanded employment in December so none of that is great

however uh resp companies are continuing to reduce headcounts through layoffs

attrition and hiring freezes which also isn't good so Barkin you know what are

you talking about uh the action is supported in December by the

approximately 1 to2 ratio of hiring versus staff reduction comments in other

words for every one person someone is hiring two people are basically being

reduced or laid off uh so of 18 manufacturing Industries two industries

reported employment growth those are electrical equipment and Appliance

components and Plastics and rubbers oh I guess electrical equipment and

components and appliances are one category then plastic and Rubber

products are another that sounded like multiple categories there and everyone

else is basically either reporting a decline in employment or no change in

employment levels so this doesn't sound great that doesn't sound like it's

reiterating what Barkin says in fact this right here sounds like it's

reiterating Powell's concerns for the markets but if if you look at the

headline commentary there is something interesting here that tells you when to

start paying attention to changes take a look at some of the green levels here uh

and some of the red that I wrote here so what we have is we're seeing a softening

in sales in food beverage and tobacco products this is concerning is it's our

peak season now computer and electrical products they see a constriction in uh

technical labor so in other words they need more workers H1B is anyone okay

that's a sore topic right now uh and machine sees a significant slowdown in

production requirements in the last two months of the year which isn't great

because this is usually a leading indicator of production and Order levels

being well below forecast Productions aren't great uh for fabricated Metal

Products but electrical equipment appliances and components have order

levels at basically full capacity there's some level of increased demand

for miscellaneous manufacturing and there's definitely an upt in primary

medals though not necessarily a stable one so you kind of have this weird do

where you're getting comments that are like yeah people have hope but the

numbers aren't actually really doing that well uh and take a look at this

this is another sign of potentially hope and I think this might be what barin's

talking about employment contracted as final headcount adjustments were likely

taken to prepare for 2025 ah interesting okay so could that

be what we have to pay attention to going forward think about that for a

moment usually write this down and then I want

to show you the chart that everybody's concerned about usually uh companies

fire in January to prep for 2025 as they remove uh one uh temp hires seasonal

hires and earnings are pressured so they can announce in Q4 earnings reports uh

which take place in Jan Feb uh that they're shrinking to cut costs right I

mean think about it this is simple logic if bad

earnings tell everyone you're cutting and stock market can sometimes still be

happy on that but that is a form of laying

off now what this PMI report that or I should say the the ism uh report on

manufacturing is saying is that maybe maybe

head count Cuts were made uh head count Cuts I'll just say head Cuts uh were

made in 2024 Q4 to prep for 2025 so basically there's some hopium from

barking at the FED that hiring is coming in

2025 ISM uh you know report on manufacturing hope that uh job Cuts were

just to prep for 2025 Powell jobs Market you know in the

basically uh in the last fomc uh so I'll just write last fomc here job market has

serious downside risk so there's hope but there are real risk so what

does this mean we have to pay attention to well we probably have to pay

attention to the Jan Feb march on employment data and then we should know

are we going to stick in the clear now now what does this have to do with the

following chart of scariness well take a look at

this this chart right here shows you the uninversity

little piece right here every time we have come out of a period of an inverted

yield curve we have faced a recession which doesn't bode well for where we sit

now the question is when do we hit that recession or when do we potentially hit

a soft Landing I'm going to show you that so and this is going to show you

why this first quarter is so important first of all we hit a recession in uh

the early portion of 200 eight uh which is when the yield

curve sat right about in this level certainly this this explosion right here

right these levels here uh and in 200 early

2001 excuse me in early 2001 we also hit recession which was about this level

right here and then uh of course in March of uh 2020 we hit recession in Co

so what this shows you is that we generally did not hit recession before

we exceeded that 50 level right here which is really interesting because look

at where that yield curve sits right now I'm going to hide myself look at where

we sit right now 31 basis points uninverted so we are coming up to what

we call the DP the decision point for the economy to decide are those weaker

job numbers that we're getting from Q4 uh and especially even like a lot of the

government work uh you know employment and we don't have to go into that and be

redundant over that right now are these weaker

numbers going to persist because if they persist and the yield curve keeps un

inverting like this we're probably within 2 to 3 months of a recession

declaration right here which seems weird because the stock market is at all-time

highs right now well the same was true in 20 000 and 2007 stock market was at

all-time highs and then all of a sudden it's like oh crap we rapidly went into

recession and then we had a 2 and a half year sell down during thec bubble we had

a 9month sell down during 2008 there was a lot of pain we know that valuations

are high right now but Barkin is telling us that there's more upside than there's

downside is he saying that because he's trying to fulfill or basically self

fulfilled the hopeful expansion I mean according to this ISM report from

December which just came out this morning it seems to me like the economy

is actually giving us mixed bag signals not purely growth signals but Barkin is

basically barking up a tree telling us everything's fine maybe that's because

he's leaving his post this year and it doesn't matter he could just leave

bullish be happy and then he's gone because he won't be blamed for it

because he's leaving but he tells us Baseline growth outlook for 2025 is

positive more upside risk than downside risk for growth as long as As vales

remain strong consumers will continue to spend and employment should stay propped

up this is basically I'm saying like hey prop up the stock market he says

uncertainty has fallen and yeah there's some upside risks to inflation but we

might break towards more hiring rather than firing I mean all of that really

sounds really bullish from Barkin and what period of time does he basically

refer to well in my opinion he's trying to set up a 1990 style soft Landing see

when you have this convergence of the 10 and two year every time you have a

convergence of the 10 and two something ends up happening and there are two

things that happen Okay we're going to draw this I'm

going to use uh let's go with this n let's go

with this like pink color over here okay after this convergence recession after

this convergence recession after this convergence recession over here we don't

know the hope the hopium is that we could be like this right here where you

had a convergence in the late '90s and you still had time for yields to rise

look at this yields actually ended up rising from from where they sit now

around 42% right here yields ended up rising to about 62% after the soft

Landing so if you get a soft Landing interest rates could balloon even more

the housing market could be continued to be constrained by high interest

rates and stock market could just keep pumping along like it did in the mid90s

that's possible but the difference between the '90s and today is that you

didn't have an inverted yield curve leading into the mid90s and so we're at

D Point anything can happen but in my opinion the next 3 months are the

decision point the next 3 months tell us are we going into a recession or not and

so what I would do uh let's go to BLS releases let's give you these dates

because I think these dates are really important the first and most important

date for this jobs report the first and most there we go the first and most

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name it so check that out go to me kevin.com then write down this schedule

right here these are the dates you want to pay attention to Feb 7 March 7 April

4 if we can get through these three reports without recessionary

data we will probably I will make the argument that we will have stuck the

1995 soft Landing I don't actually believe that this report is as valuable

because it's still part of December and I really think that this January

February March data that's when the adjustments hit we'll see anyway thanks

so much for watching check out more details over at me kevin.com and we'll

see you soon thanks so much goodbye and good luck why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get your take