Will the Stock Market Crash & Burn Again?

hey everyone it's prophet kevin okay no

i'm kidding

the only reason i'm saying that is

because actually you all the audience

has mentioned this but you all have

mentioned that in this video right here

in the last

five minutes apparently i basically

nailed it

i said that i was investing heavily into

the market

for two reasons last week one i thought

the worst

was last week and i published this on

march 4th i talked about how on

march 4th i think maybe we're going to

have another red friday

maybe the market will open up really

bloody but i think it'll start

recovering

then we're going to see the effects of

the weekend effect kick in where people

start

taking account of what happened and go

oh man things are cheap

institutional investors are going to

come over and then the stimulus is going

to pass

and then maybe the fed will loosen uh

which the fed hasn't loosened yet but

stimulus passed the weekend effect took

place

and what happened this week well not

only did we nailed it about friday

but we were right about the weekend

effects coming into play and the

stimulus coming into play and what do we

have

tues or tuesday wednesday and thursday

we're all substantially up

now great video i mean watch it if you

haven't yet because you will see on in

during the bloodiest

time what i was saying why i was buying

and i think it's a good like

psychological lesson to see like okay

this is this is what i was thinking of

when it was

bad so what am i thinking of now and

this is not to say

that what i'm about to say is right

because i don't know

i think i got lucky there i was just

putting all of my reading and all the

data and my belief about how the

psychology of money works together

and that was the conclusion i came up

with last week it's kind of the same

reason why when we were in march of 2020

i

refinanced all my properties and took

all that money and plowed into the stock

market

peak fear it's also why right before

this crash

i sold off one one and a half million

dollars worth of stocks

to lower margin like i do these things

because of what i see and here in the

economy and this is why hopefully

you you appreciate the channel and you

subscribe so what do i think

going forward obviously the market is

recovering very strongly right now

isn't it possible that the market is

going to crash again

here's my take this week we also not

only

did that the market sort of and i know

not everybody's supportive of this but

yes the market

sort of got blessed with the stimulus

package but the market also got blessed

with better unemployment data

we got lower inflation data than

expected which is something that i've

talked about a million times on this

channel about how i think

long run inflation is just not going to

be as high as people think it's going to

be

i think the market is overvaluing how

bad inflation is going to be

and we got the european central bank

saying they're just going to

buy a bunch more bonds to try to do

whatever they can to control

yields to bring yields down

so we got a lot of really good catalysts

those catalysts

we got the catalyst we were expecting

like the stimulus and the weekends

catalyst

we got those catalysts plus some

unemployment cpi the ecb

those are good okay but so this is good

you know the market's obviously going up

this is wonderful what does this mean

going forward we're going to see another

crash

so my take is that over the next three

months we

are going to get really nasty inflation

data but it's going to be what i call

fugazi inflation data

and that is because we're going to be

comparing

march 2020 to march 2021

in april it's a year late when they do

i'm sorry it's a month late when they do

the measurement

we are going to see very high inflation

for the readings for march

april and may which come out april may

june

so next month in april we're going to

get march's cpi down we're gonna go oh

dang what 2.4 percent inflation here

over here

and then the next month thereafter in

may we're going to look at what april

data

3.4 inflation year over year

here it is we knew it we knew there was

inflation the data is finally

catching up the problem is this is going

to be

temporary this is not going to be as fed

chair jerome powell says persistent

inflation

and i don't want to have you know the

point of this isn't to have a debate

over inflation this video is not an

inflation video

but when you know that and you already

know my thesis on

look like the whole bond yield thing how

bond yields going up and stocks going

down i get it like that that exists but

i think that is going to soften

it's already been softening that

relationship but what instead could be

very

interesting is when we start getting

some very real

ugly looking cpi data inflation data

that we know is temporary

it is very possible that we're going to

see this same

kind of crash maybe not as severe but a

similar crash or at least the volatility

of this crash

that we have seen between february 19th

and approximately let's see today is

the 11th so to about the 8th you know

the 8th 9th is when the market really

started recovering again

it is possible that we're going to see

that same period of pain

recur maybe not at the same level of

paying the same

extremeness but i think when inflation

data comes in high

there could be this similar panic

and then reconciliation panic and

reconciliation

and so the point of that is to say i am

motivated

especially with this last little

oopsy-doopsies that happened here over

the last few weeks

i'm motivated to make sure i keep my

margin

under 20 as soon as possible even if

that means me

selling a few positions i have less

conviction in i would rather

roll my lower conviction stocks and

concentrate them into the higher

conviction stocks which is something i

did before the crash

but now as prices are going up again i'm

going to consider doing that again i

like

shaving i like selling companies when

they're up uh not usually because i just

don't like selling in general but i'm

saying

when i go to sell i like selling when

they're up obviously

who doesn't but anyway if we go through

the next you know three months of of

some of this uh you know inflation

volatility

and the market just doesn't understand

and the market thinks no big inflation

is coming

we're going to see these drops again not

to this magnitude but you want to be

prepared for that

so don't get in my opinion i would not

be doing any short-term options right

now

i can't predict when that pain is going

to come back

i would be buying the dips though just

like we did

last week i bought a ton of money or a

ton of money worth of stocks

last week and i'm really grateful i did

because that was that ended up being the

bottom when i just

loaded the boat uh again

luck or maybe it's a combination of

everything that we're seeing in the

market by tracking the market as much as

we are

but i find it very interesting that last

thursday

i say i think bond investors or

institutional investors in that video

watch that video

in that video i say i think

institutional investors are going to

u-turn and they're going to go wow

there's some really big

good deals here on tech we should rotate

back out of recovery stocks and go back

into tech

folks look at what the bloomberg ran

this morning it's literally like they're

watching my channel

wall street is rethinking the treasury

threat to big tech stocks

it's literally what we called

last week and again i'm not saying

you know here's here's the profit who

can tell the future i can't

i do believe that the next decade

is going to be a stock market you want

to be a part of

you want to be a part of this stock

market over this next decade

i don't know when we're going to see

this kind of volatility again

but i don't think we're done with it

this this inflation fear

people aren't all of a sudden convinced

that inflation is not coming

so we might see the bond market

fluctuate up down a little bit

and we might see stocks just continue to

go up for a while

uh it is possible we go back to higher

highs that we had before

but i do think at least over these next

three months whether it happens or not

we want to be very cautious

and prepared for another freakout

inflation style dip

and that cpi data coming out over like

this last cpi data set that was like a

bailout that was great

thank you i think that's correct long

term for the long term trend

but over the next uh you know three

months we're gonna get

much worse and uglier news now it

depends what the market looks at

if the market says wow year-over-year

inflation data is so bad this is

horrible

market tanks if the market values that

if the market goes no no no

kevin's right the year-over-year data

doesn't matter because we're measuring

into the pit of the pandemic we

shouldn't do that

what's the month over month inflation

data and if we're not seeing inflation

data month

over month which actually came in lower

than expected from january to february

which was another bit of good news if

that continues from feb to march

march to april april to may and then we

get that measure in june that final

measure in june where it really matters

uh you know these next three months

being the ones that matter because

that's when the pit was from last year

yeah then we might not actually see

another big dip like we just had

so my bottom line expectations

and my strategy going forward and i

don't sound like a broken record but

it's so

so freaking important especially the

pain everybody went through in the last

two weeks

don't kid yourself like that is real

pain you are valid to feel those

emotions

i feel those emotions too it's just what

you do with those emotions that makes

you a different

investor do you sell uh or

and then that's it i get a reset i'm

going to start over or do you double

down

and that's up to you obviously you know

what my strategy is

so what's my strategy now going forward

well stocks are going up again

i'm going to take this as an opportunity

especially stocks go up

i'm gonna reevaluate some of my

positions i'm gonna look at some of my

positions and i go okay

what do i have that i want to dump and

that doesn't mean that i don't

love the company it just means i don't

love the company enough

to let that company be a reason that i'm

potentially

higher on margin than i want to be it's

just not worth it i'd rather keep my

more concentrated positions

and i'll sell as the market's going up

i'll sell a few things so over the next

few weeks

if you're in the stocks in psychology of

money group which you can get in with

the expiring coupon code which expires

in four days

uh you get 38 off access to private live

streams and all my alerts

uh then you will see those sell alerts

uh when they come up

but uh and there have already been cell

alerts or at least a cell alert which

i'll talk about more a different time

but anyway uh the goal is get under 20

margin as soon as possible now you have

to be careful but personally

look i'm if i took all my cash right now

and paid down my margin i'd be at about

30

margin if i just sit around and do

nothing it's quite possible the market

could appreciate to a point

prices could go up to a point where i'm

at 20 margin and i literally didn't have

to do anything

like the market basically just bailed me

out over time right

i don't want to rely on that i want to

look at like look at a snapshot of my

portfolio today

and my goal is to pay down a good ten

percent of margin myself and if the

prices go up and that means i'm at 10

margin in the future fine what's margin

gonna provide me

in the next crash the next time we get

this kind of

pain and volatility and all the crazy

commentary that we get in the youtube

comment section that's like

nope nope this is the end tesla's going

to zero

it's over we're gonna see uh bitcoin go

to zero you know all these these crazy

comments

like that time will come again i lived

those comments

because of the march crisis right and

it's

look i'm this is not to single out folks

but this is a serious thing this is so

common you know

oh people are out of money and didn't

realize it was a seven layer dip

this is a very common phrase that people

say when it's like well

it's just gonna keep dipping but what do

i say on this channel

sure it might feel like it's never going

to end but when it ends it ends

fast kind of like this oh it's going to

get worse i mean we

see this this is all the time we bought

the dip and it kept dipping

well i guess we got lucky because it

turned around pretty dang fast

uh so let's see here if you guys think

this dip is f uh so far is scary i'd say

hold your horses in extra cash because

the fear and greed index haven't even

reached

extreme levels yet well i also don't

think the fear indices are going to hit

extreme levels or would have last week

like my reaction to the the comments was

like well why

why tell like this is this is a very

important

uh a question for you why did the market

crash

in on february 19th think about that why

did the market crash

why did all of a sudden we have this

crisis for two weeks

okay the best argument if i was gonna

make the argument

the best argument would probably be

valuations are high bond yields

skyrocketing

okay it's a fair argument so we had a

correction because of that

now let me give you this why did we

crash in march of 2020

because the world was in panic mode

buying out toilet paper thinking we were

going to shut down for 60 to 90 days

permanently everything was gonna be shut

down i don't mean lockdown

with with martial law we were talking

about we were talking about

martial law coming to make sure people

stay in their homes and we've got

all these pictures of of hazmat suits

and gas masks people are going to

congress with gas masks on you got bill

ackman on tv going

shut everything down for 30 days this is

the worst crisis ever

and everything is like everyone is like

you know that's fear

this last bull crap correction was a

joke it was

fugazi of a crash in my opinion i mean

okay bond yields shot up at a fast rate

really

that's the best you got to create a

market crash

that is what caused this correction in

tech right

but to me it just created a big fat

buying opportunity now it was a

warning it was like a nice little nice

little red flag like just be careful

don't you have too much margin now

fortunately i was not over leveraged i

went in i went in like 29 30 percent

it's higher than i wanted to be i wanted

to be at 20 good thing i sold

on feb 16 and reduced my margin

otherwise i would have been even more

nervous

but uh and who knows i mean the market

could crash tomorrow after i make this

video

what do i know i'm not trying to predict

tomorrow i'm just saying be prepared for

that volatility

i don't think we're going to see a dip

as big as we just did and

looking back and i believe that then too

why did why is it not

as bad as what we saw last year and a

lot of people like oh it's a year to the

date see this is the crash this is it

we're gonna have the same thing again

for you to believe that you have to tell

me that the fear

that we saw last march is the same fear

we feel right now

nobody feels that fear nobody feels that

same

fear my thoughts if you like my

perspectives

you know what to do check out the

programs linked down below thank you so

much for your support i appreciate you

and we'll see you

in the next video

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