holy sh*t Nvidia Stock | THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING

Well, well, well. Nvidia absolutely

skyrocketing on some breaking news and a

Palunteer partnership announced between

Nvidia and Palanteer as well. But

honestly, it's the numbers that are

leading Nvidia to skyrocket. Currently

up 3%

in our course member live streams in the

alpha report. We have a $240 price

target on this. This is really exciting

for Nvidia. But I want to break down the

numbers for you to show you why this is

moving the way it is and what Nvidia

just said. Keep in mind, coupon code

humor siesta expires tomorrow night, but

you already know about that over at

me.com. So, first of all, to really

understand what's fueling all of this,

you have to understand some of the

creativity that's going around to keep

money flowing into Nvidia. To some

extent, it's kind of scary and weird,

but listen to this. The creative deal

making behind Meta's $30 billion data

financing, data center financing, and

this is made up of $27.5 billion of

debt, $2.5 billion of equity. But

basically, Meta, Mark Zuckerberg, he's

like, "Look, we're going to be spending

$70 billion on $72 billion of planned

capex in 2025. A lot of that money is

going to go into Nvidia chips. Probably

somewhere around 60% just goes into

Nvidia chips. That that's what we see at

companies like Oracle as well. They put

about 60% into Nvidia and then 40% is

the rest whether it's AMD or water

cooling hardware or racks whatever right

6040 is often what we've seen. Meta

plans a hundred billion dollar capex

spending in 2026 which if you combine

that 60% of 72 plus 60% of uh next

year's capex is already $103 billion

from Meta alone. Keep that number in

mind because it becomes really

important. I want you to see how much of

a pie Meta probably is of Nvidia. and

Meta just finalized this funding deal

and now Jensen is bragging about new big

numbers. So, I think there's a direct

correlation here between this Meta

financing deal and what's going on with

Nvidia's announcement. But what I want

you to understand is the following. This

deal is being purposefully designed to

not be owned by Meta. It's literally a

bond deal that is due in 24 years. Now,

to me, that's crazy because who would

buy these bonds that are due in 2049,

24-year bonds? Well, who's buying it are

companies like PIMCO, who bought $18

billion, BlackRock and life insurance

companies who want longer, you know,

buttered out yields basically. So, they

get a 6.6ish%

yield. Some of them paid a premium, so

maybe they got in the high fives or

whatever, but they're getting a nice

yield locked in for 24 years. And Meta

gets no debt on their balance sheet.

[snorts] Now, how does that work?

Creative financing. Yeah, that's

literally what this whole piece is

about. Bottom line, Meta doesn't want

all of this debt on their balance sheet.

So instead, what's going to happen is

this Hyperion data center that Meta is

going to lease is going to be owned by

bond holders and these specialurpose

vehicles. Basically, a fancy creative

structure so Meta can use the data

center without showing the debt on their

balance sheet. And because Meta is

slicing up the leases into renewable

4-year terms on 11 buildings at the data

center, Meta can actually walk away

scot- well maybe not scot-free, they'll

walk away at a discounted net present

value of of the remaining lease term.

But Meta will be able to walk away from

these data center bags if they need to.

So think about what this means. It's

actually crazy for this whole bubble

that fuels and it's really bullish for

Nvidia that fuels Nvidia. And I want to

start with this debt because I want you

to understand this. Okay. Uh Meta wants

to spend big problem. People get worried

about the balance sheet. Basically, how

much debt the company has. Okay. Well,

in this case, Meta now gets a $27

billion data center, roughly 30 billion

once you consider the investments with

zero debt showing on Meta's balance

sheet, approved by the SEC and approved

by credit rating agencies as not to

affect Meta's credit rating because Meta

is not responsible for the debt. Meta is

only responsible for renewable four-year

leases, which won't even show up as

long-term liabilities because of the way

they structured this. So now all of a

sudden, what you have is this game where

Meta basically gets a $27 billion data

center and no debt and they're leasing

it at, you know, a fraction of the

expense for, you know, whatever period

of time they want it. Now, who ends up

holding the bag? Not Meta. Brilliant for

Meta. If all of these in 24 years, okay,

in 24 years, what do you think those

Blackwell chips are going to be worth?

The Blackwell chips will be worth zero,

Nvidia will have made their bag. Meta

will have made their bag. Guess who

holds the real bag? Well, PIMCO and

Black Rockck and these life insurance

companies, which who cares, right? But

the point is what it does is it opens

the door to guess what? More debt. and

more debt and more of this creative

financing at Meta or XAI. We already

know XAI is basically out of freaking

money. So XAI is also using these

creative financing deals for their

Colossus 2 facility. I'm not making this

up. It's right here in the article. Elon

Musk XI is using a similar arrangement

to fund chips going into the Colossus 2

data center. They can't afford all these

chips. There's not enough cash. So, they

have to come up with these creative

long-term structures to coax life

insurance companies to invest in these,

you know, to lock in these higher

yields. But the people who are backing

those bonds don't even realize they're

signing up for a 24-year bond on a data

center that's backed by chips that

aren't going to be worth anything in 24

years. But who cares? Because guess who

prints money today? Nvidia. Because what

did Nvidia tell us today? And this is

why Nvidia is skyrocketing. Nvidia told

us that this $46 billion of revenue they

make is nothing.

88% of this is data centers. So $41

billion is data centers. Well, guess

what they just told us? For the next six

quarters, they have $500 billion of

orders for the next six quarters. What

does that work out to? Divide it by six.

That works out to $83 billion per

quarter of data center revenue. Right

now they're only doing $41 billion. That

is a double of data center revenue

uh on a quarterly basis. Now their

forecast is that they'll probably be

somewhere around $54 billion of total

revenue. $54 billion total revenue at

88% means they're probably forecasting

Q3 to be about $47 billion of data

center revenue. Okay, that is still

almost a doubly a double 80. It's

definitely a W. 83 divided by 47, that's

a 76% upside to the quarterly revenue

estimates for Nvidia. And if their uh uh

their margins stay consistent in this

72% gross margin basis, a lot of that is

just going to come down to their net

income, which is about 56%. Insane. More

than 50 cents of every dollar goes to

their bottom line, folks. I kid you not.

after taxes. [laughter]

After taxes, they take 56 cents of every

dollar to the bottom line on these black

wheel chips. This company has the

biggest PP in the world. The biggest

pricing power in the world at Nvidia.

It's absolutely insane. AMD doesn't hold

a handle to this net income. AMD's net

income is like half of Nvidia's. That's

why people are so excited that AMD can

catch up. I'm not trying to bag on AMD.

just saying the numbers are what they

are and it's one of the reasons, you

know, Nvidia is is number one is because

their margins are are insane uh relative

to AMD's. But we don't have to talk AMD

right now. AMD will benefit from all

these leasing situations as well. As

Nvidia grows, AMD will grow as well.

It's just, you know, onetenth the size

of Nvidia, which also explains why it

has less pricing power. Just CUDA has

created such a moat for Nvidia. As

Jensen spoke about this morning at GTC,

the more people develop on CUDA, the

more strong the moat becomes. Uh, this

is why AMD is trying to partner with

companies like Oracle to create an open-

source model to sort of weaken that

moat. Whatever. I I like both companies.

You could like both companies. I

actually think the more AMD is above

232, the more Nvidia approaches my price

target. And it's insane. I mean, look at

this. It's literally about to hit $200.

This is And this is pumping. In addition

to Trump tacoing, this is pumping the

cues right now. this announcement, which

is amazing. Uh, okay. Oh, this is

interesting. Stalantis to deliver at

least 5,000 Nvidia robo taxis for Uber.

Wow. Nvidia says Uber ties up to include

a 100,000 vehicles. Uber shares up 1.2%

on Nvidia partnership. Uber eyes fleet

of 100,000 Nvidia based robo taxis

beginning in 2027. That's not a

surprise. I've always said the biggest

competitor to Tesla is not another

automotive company. It's Nvidia. Nobody

pays attention to Nvidia's automotive

division. Nobody. And when you actually

look at their presser, uh, let's go into

the Nvidia press release. You could

actually get a little bit of color on

this. So, if you go to Nvidia's press

release and you go to automotive here,

automotive revenue is only $586 million

in the quarter. That's literally one out

of $80

go to Nvidia's automotive side. That's

it. One out of $80 that Nvidia makes

automotive. And so guess what happens

when all of a sudden now Stellantis

wants to manufacture Nvidia robo taxis.

Uber wants Nvidia robo taxis. That's a

direct competitor to Tesla. Now

obviously Tesla has a data advantage for

now. And that's probably a topic for a

different video, but it's something to

pay attention to. The point that I want

to make though about Nvidia is that

right now Wall Street is estimating and

I put this in the uh stock tab for

course members but right now Nvidia is

estimated to grow EPS at 46 uh let me

double check this. It is expected to

grow I'm sorry uh that's 43.51%

of EPS growth next year with 20.3% EPS

growth average over the next four years.

But if we actually change just next year

to, you know, the 73% that we're

probably going to get, uh, you you

should be bumping this probably to about

25% average annual growth. So, I'm going

to do that. I'm going to change Nvidia

uh, Nvidia's numbers to 25%. And if we

do that, it's going to change the PEG

ratio substantially for Nvidia from 2.14

where it sits right now, which is

relatively low. And if we bump them to

25%, let's see how it changes. So if I

go to 25% growth and I update this in

the back end for course members,

you get the benefit of watching this

video. Okay. Then I go to the backend

for the Nvidia stock tab. We're at a

1.75 peg right now on Nvidia. Okay, what

does that make the fair value for

Nvidia? Well, let's do the math on it.

So, this is just a quick example, by the

way, of the style of fundamental

analysis we do in the course member live

streams every day. Like, we did Wayfair

and UPS this morning. They have their

own little stock tab on this as well,

but we calculate fair values off of

this, right? So, moving CPEG to 25%

growth average next four years from

20.3% Wall Street. Okay. Uh that moves

the fair value estimate for Nvidia to uh

2.67 as a service provider

times I just need to get the current

earnings per share, but then we're going

to multiply it by 25%.

And then we're going to grab the Nvidia

EPS at 4.51 for the end of the year

equals uh 2.67.

Apple AI doesn't want to work. That's

fine. Time 25 * 4.51. That's why I keep

a $5 calculator on my desk. These

numbers just actually move the fair

value target up $60. These uh Jensen

numbers literally move uh the fair value

target for Nvidia from 240 to 300. Uh

that's wild. That's a really nice move

right there. So really impressive. I

mean very very impressive numbers and a

lot of it you have to say is based on

these insane financing deals that you're

getting uh that are that are just

propping up the bubble. Like let's be

clear like these chips will be worth

zero in the long term. And that's why

Meta is so brilliant. Like why else is

Meta doing this where Meta's like hey

just in case you know we want to be able

to get out of these deals and then who

holds the bag? some random Wall Street

bag holders that ended up buying a AAA

rated bag of crap that they were told

was AAA rated and had a good yield. We

are just now beginning

the securitized bubble. This is insane.

Anyway, if you want more of my

perspectives, make sure to join me in

the Meet Kevin report. Grab it every

morning before the market opens up at

meetke.com. You get lifetime access. You

can write it off in your taxes. Use that

coupon code Schumer siesta and get

yourself some big pee pee.

>> Big pee pee.

>> Kevin is much more interested than most

people by the way in the balance sheet.

>> Kevin is very talented, but I don't know

it's going to be him, but he's a very

talented guy.

>> Why not advertise these [music] things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

[music] and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.