WTF is Going on | Trump Tariff Disaster (Or Strategy?)

Wow. Larry Frink, one of the largest

asset managers in the world, suggests we

are in a recession that companies and

corporate CEOs are panicking to him. And

he suggests we could see another 20%

draw down. How does that align with what

we see in volatility indices? And are

there some clues that could suggest are

we at a bottom or are we actually just

getting started? After we talk about

this, I want to give you a breakdown of

what happened this morning with the

Treasury market with this insane

short-term spike in the stock market.

What happened this morning with Donald

Trump's meeting with BB? What did we

hear about? What's going on with China

or Iran? There was some major news and

we got to break all of this down. I just

finished Donald Trump's presser and I'm

going to give you a breakdown of

everything that you need to know today.

And I promise you it's going to be worth

listening to all of this perspective.

And I appreciate you taking the time to

subscribe to this channel and listen to

my sharing of this information because

there's a lot, but I think this is very

valuable information to you and your

investments. So, with that said, let's

get started. The first thing that I want

you to pay attention to is the historic

volatility charts on, well, quite

frankly, the broader market. Uh we could

use the VIX as an example. And what I

want you to consider is times during

which it was very profitable to own

stocks over time. Uh and if you go back

to the bottom of 200 uh three, which is

basically when the Federal Reserve

bailed out markets, you find we got

about four years of a downtrend in

volatility. But during those four years,

stocks actually moved up quite

substantially. Now, that's actually

really important because when you think

of 2003 to 2007, it might not seem like

stocks moved up a lot, but you had at

least a doubling, if not more, in many

of the underlying stocks. And that's

while volatility was moving stably down.

In other words, we just came out of a

recession. The Fed was bailing out

markets and everything was going good. A

lot of folks are wondering, "Yeah, but

Kevin, isn't it better to just buy right

now?" I mean, look, the NASDAQ 100 is

literally negative year-over-year.

-3.84. We have done nothing for the last

12 months in the NASDAQ 100. Pretty

remarkable, right? And that's why I

wonder, okay, well, who knows? Maybe

that's a buying opportunity, right?

Well, what does the volatility index

tell us? Well, look at history because

I'm a big fan of this time is not

different. And I'm a big fan of looking

what at what history does and learning

from it because usually history tends to

rhyme and the the present rhymes with

history, right? Look at this. When

volatility started rising, it rose in

2007 and 2008 and it ultimately

culminated in the Lehman Brothers

collapse where the volatility index

nearly hit 90. Now you could see how

this uptrend of volatility really

started breaking in 2007 and 2008 as

people became more and more nervous

about the underlying fundamentals of the

economy. All right, interesting. So

where do we sit now? Well, first it's

worth noting that after co we actually

had a large downtrend of volatility for

about 2 and 1/2 years. The bottom of the

market was right about here once we

started confirming that downtrend of

volatility. And what you'll find is the

stock market basically went up like a

Nike swoosh during this period of time

from the end of

2022 to uh about the end of

2024. So just a little over 2 years we

found stocks basically went straight up

even with some euphoria towards the end.

And a lot of this was during this

downtrend. However, recently going as

far back as the carry trade, which was

really the beginning of volatility

coming back, we've started to see a lot

more drama again. And so, this is why

some people are comparing carry trade

drama, tariff trade drama, and these

imbalances to the same imbalances and

warnings we thought saw during 2007 and

2008. And that these volatility spikes

that we had before in 2007, 2008 weren't

buying opportunities. the bottom of the

market wasn't until you actually had the

fullscale capitulation and the Lehman

Brothers uh bailout, not just by the

trouble asset relief program in October

of 2008, but also the Federal Reserve in

March uh uh in February and March of

2009. So, think about that for a moment.

History tells you the market bottoms

when the Fed U-turns. You already know

this, but that volatility chart tells

you, hey, there might be some reason to

watch some of this volatility because

usually when you get big moves like what

we had in the S&P 500 today or the

treasuries market, it usually only

happens during times of e economic

stress or recession. It last happened in

March of 2020, multiple times in 2008

and 2000, and there was also a case

where we've seen swings like this in May

of 2010. But remember, those were all in

the middle of damaged economic periods

that hadn't actually bottomed out yet.

So these 8% jumps in the S&P 500, which

is unheard of, from bottom to top, they

can happen, but they usually happen when

volatility is high, very, very high and

elevated. And they're not necessarily

buying opportunities until we've

actually seen a true flush out or

capitulation. Now, who knows if that's

what's going to happen now or who knows

if we're we've just hit a bottom. Now, I

have an opinion on this. I'm going to

give you my opinion on this and then we

have a whole lot of extra data to cover.

Not only are we going to cover what

happened with this crazy 90-day pause

talk this morning, we're going to talk

about Bill Aman's freaking out on X and

a lot more facts about Nvidia Micro

Strategy, what happened with Israel and

Iran and others. We've got to talk about

all of that, but I want to tell you what

I went into this morning with. This

morning I issued an alpha report and

suggested that we were likely to see a

tactical bounce today. In fact, I

suggested that there is a small

possibility that we would actually end

up seeing stocks going from about the

401 level on the NASDAQ all the way up

to

431, which if you look at the chart is

insane. And folks, it's exactly what

happened. You could see the video right

here. I'll play it for you in just a

second. But remember, this is all part

of the Meet Kevin membership. Lock in

your price before April 15th and you can

always have access to these insights or

suggestions or perspectives. I can't

guarantee you'll make money every single

day, but I can guarantee you I'm going

to give you my perspective. And I

thought we were going to see a tactical

bounce today, and that's what we ended

up seeing. Here's the clip. If we clear

the negative 3% all the way, I mean, be

somewhere 423. Uh, and then if you go

positive from there, you're going to

start knocking on the door of the 431.

That would it would go down as one of

the craziest sort of

like negative day reversals. Yeah, you

actually honestly if you average this

one and you're almost at a four or five

minute candle here on a bounce, watch

this for a potential bounce. Again, if

we do get this bounce today,

uh you know, probably some day calls

that are desirable around at at least uh

this sort of mid-range here, maybe. So,

like a 415

uh but um you know, in a really long

shot all the way out to 431, but that's

what that's I'm watching for some kind

of tactical bounce. Again, I don't think

it's going to be a fundamental bounce.

Uh I hope it is. again. I I hope things

and folks, that's exactly what happened.

Those 415 calls skyrocketed. So,

consider joining that membership and

locking in your price because once

prices go up on April 15th, if you're

already in, you'll lock in your price at

that subscription level forever. You

won't have any price increases ever.

Whereas, anybody who joins after you'll

be paying a lot more. So, now let's talk

about some data and what happened today

with Donald Trump and others. So, first

Micro Strategy revealed that they're

down $5.91 billion on their Bitcoin

purchased in Q1. Now, most of these are

just paper losses. They're not required

to sell any of their Bitcoin, even

though they're required to give you

disclosures that they might have to sell

some of their Bitcoin. There's no

anticipation that Micro Strategy is

going to sell any of their Bitcoin. And

they revealed that they were purchasing

a lot of Bitcoin between just before

tariff announcement, liberation day, and

April 6th, which does explain why, which

we had speculated on the channel. It

explains why Bitcoin was so freaking

stable during Liberation Day on

Thursday. We're like, my gosh, the stock

market is getting annihilated and

Bitcoin's stable. It's because as usual

and we suspected this, Michael Sailor

was buying again, propping up, setting

up that floor basically under the

Bitcoin market. Interesting. What's also

interesting is that Nvidia is trading

for a 20x forward PE ratio, which is

lower than what it traded for during

COVID and lower than what it traded for

in the 2022 recession lows. Well, sort

of chip recession lows, the you know,

um, rolling recession lows. Some people

are looking at this and saying that's

because the EPS estimates are way too

high and we're going to go through an AI

bubble burst and some form of a reset

and that's why Nvidia is trading for

such a low multiple because remember

multiples are based on that underlying

earnings per share estimate. But if that

forward estimate is wrong, the multiple

does you no good because you're

multiplying on a crap number. So keep

that in mind. Something that's very sad

is Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcies

jumped 20% last month and individual

bankruptcies jumped 13%. Treasury

Secretary Bessant also is now suggesting

that fired federal workers could end up

getting new manufacturing jobs. Boy, I'd

like to see the retraining for that take

place. Yes, the folks at the DMV are

ready to make your shoes.

US uh the US Chamber of Commerce is now

considering suing Donald Trump over

tariffs and Congress is trying to well

there's one member trying to file a

discharge petition to try to basically

force a vote on a resolution to require

Congress to approve tariffs which

remember Congress has the duty of the

purse basically the duty to tax. Uh

Donald Trump says nope tariffs are a

national emergency and it's my

responsibility and we're just going to

veto any of your legislation. John Thoon

also says that any sort of questioning

of Donald Trump's power on tariffs is

dead on

arrival. All right. Donald Trump just

met with BB of Israel this morning. And

I want you to remember this. Well, it's

technically their afternoon. It was

like, you know, in the earlier part of

the day for us West Coasters. But

anyway, Israel signed a free trade

agreement 40 years ago. BB going into

the Oval Office today saying, "We want

not just free trade, but fair trade.

We're removing all of our tariffs. This

is just him physically reiterating what

he's already said about a week ago. This

is really old news. But because this

sort of stuff circulates by people on

the the right like, "Oh, all hail Donald

Trump. Look at what's happening. He got

free trade with Israel. Oh, Israel's

doing the right thing." Israel is

playing it smart. And I want you to

listen to this. 98% of products

experience free trade and have

experienced free trade between Israel

and the United States. The remaining 2%

raise about $1.3 million in tax revenue,

tariff revenue for Israel, mostly on

some minor agricultural revenues from

the United States. The United States

provided Israel $3.3 billion in 2023 in

military aid. So what do you want? $1

million or $3.3 billion? You're

basically doing giving up very very

little to get in Donald Trump's good

graces and allow Donald Trump to go

nobody knows winning more than me and

everybody else is going to come

negotiate with us now. Now remember and

I was talking to you know Elon Musk's

Grock about this a little bit yesterday.

Um he's like hey analyze my tweets and

tell me if if you see any like political

bias or even my YouTube videos or

whatever. And Grock had this interesting

point of view. Uh it it looked at sort

of going all the way back to even my

governor campaign and it basically said

Kevin is mostly an outsider because he

criticizes both sides which makes it

really hard to evaluate which side he

leans on because some of the stuff he

analyzes he's really just looking at it

from the point of view of a finance

person not from a political loyalist

point of view. I'm not like a MAGA

enforcer or you know a liberal enforcer.

I'm just trying to provide perspective.

I thought it was kind of an interesting

way to put it, but it kind of explains

why it's such a lonely space because,

you know, if you're not part of the

Republican party or the Democratic party

in all of your posts or actions, you're

an outsider. You're kind of alone. It's

kind of interesting. But anyway, uh

Donald Trump today did announce that we

are having direct talks with Iran, which

this is actually very interesting

because last week we were told there

would be no direct talks with Iran. And

we were just talking yesterday about how

we are positioning in the Middle East,

especially with our Diego Garcia, you

know, uh, airship capabilities for a

potential attack against Iran. Now, all

of that could just be leading into

negotiations that apparently are going

to happen on Saturday. Donald Trump is

hopeful that there could be a deal and

so we'll see potential big deal coming

Saturday, says Donald Trump. actually

think this is really good news if the

United States is truly talking to Iran

because so far talks with Russia and

Ukraine have been a big disappointment

though we talked about that a lot

yesterday so make sure to watch my video

yesterday on that to get my insights on

Russia Ukraine now Donald Trump was

asked hey can we get tariffs below 10%

and he beat around the bush on this and

then he was asked hey what about this is

it possible that the tariffs go away if

you get great deals or are we always

going to have permanent tariffs and

Donald Trump respond responded and said

there can be great deals and permanent

tariffs. You could have both. Now, that

wasn't exactly ideal. I actually think

that's a little problematic because it

somewhat suggests that Donald Trump is

starting to get addicted to the money

that's coming in or going to come in

continuously from tariffs. And he's

actually instead considering escalating

this trade conflict rather than reducing

it. Consider this for a moment.

China imposed 34% counter tariffs on us,

retaliatory tariffs on us. But it's been

much worse than that. I'll tell you in

just a moment. To which Donald Trump is

saying he's going to add an additional

50% to Chinese uh tariffs if they don't

remove their 34% by tomorrow uh or

potentially the well tomorrow at

midnight. So basically April 9th. Okay.

Well, that's problematic because China

doesn't seem likely to back down given

that China's exposure to the US economy

is much lower today than it was in

history. We've talked about this a lot

in the past, so I don't want to rehash

this. But the point is, China doesn't

need the United States as much as they

need us or such as as much as we need

them because so much of what we get is

manufactured in China. It's going to be

very hard for us to rejigger our supply

chains to get away from China. So, I

actually think China has some more cards

than we think they do here. On top of

that, they are conducting stock market

stabilization operations in their

Shanghai stock market index. The Hong

that was down 7% yesterday. The Hong

Kong stock exchange was down 13%

yesterday. So yeah, it could and by

yesterday I mean there yesterday

technically Monday for China. Uh what's

interesting about this is you actually

have China that's trying to stimulate

push their economy up. They rely on us

less and I don't think they're going to

be so quick to bend over and back down.

The problem with this for Donald Trump

is, uhoh, Donald Trump might not get the

negotiation he's looking for with one of

our largest trading partners, our third

largest trading partner. This is

problematic. And we just heard that

meetings with China have been cancelled.

Now, there may be phone calls or talks

with China, but so far doors have seemed

closed to China. This makes me think the

trade war with China is really the one

we want to pay attention to and is

likely to escalate. that there's not

likely a 90-day pause of tariffs or it's

not likely that, you know, potential

deal with Japan or Vietnam or Taiwan are

going to do us any good when the ones

with China, the deals with China are

actually getting worse. They're going

the wrong direction. Keep in mind also,

Donald Trump was asked about negotiating

with Japan and this idea that maybe

we'll have like a zero zero, you know,

tariff starting point, basically zero

tariffs on each side. Donald Trump says,

"Well, we're going to need a better deal

than 000 because there are other things

that other countries are doing that make

them more competitive, and we want them

to stop doing that." Like, he wants

Japanese people to buy more Americanmade

cars. But then again, you know, what is

an Americanmade car? So, we got a lot of

work to do here. When Donald Trump was

pressed on, hey, you know, it's going to

take a long time for companies to build

uh their own facilities or factories in

the United States, he says, yeah, so no

president is willing to do what I'm

willing to do to reset our economy. Now,

to some extent, that sounded very great

resetesque for a moment, but Donald

Trump's suggesting that he's the only

person who would be willing to reset

this economy the way he is. I don't know

if that's bullish or if that's scary

because it sounds a little aggressive.

You know, obviously today what we've

seen is some short recovering. We've

obviously at some point today seen some

uh enthusiasm come back to markets. But

remember, this is a feature of

complicated times. Everybody is excited

to find that they bought the dip and

then things skyrocketed. The problem is

we're not through the issues and we're

not even close to getting through some

of these issues. And I think that's why

you're seeing some of this panic at

people like Bill Aman. And then we got

to talk about the treasuries market. But

look at Bill Aman here. 3 days ago.

Sometimes the best strategy in a

negotiation is convincing the other side

that you are crazy. And then uh what

three days later? There's still time for

a ceasefire before millions of people

get hurt one minute after the market

opens. So you see these sort of

flip-flops from Bill Aman who's also

suggesting that this is not what we

voted for. And when somebody says that

Trump is still on track to fully

eliminate the capital gains tax in 2025,

Bill Aman says there won't be any

capital gains to tax. You could kind of

get this feeling that Donald Trump

is not like well is is having a really

big negative influence on hedge fund

managers like Bill Aman. And that really

I expect a lot of the rallies that we

see, the bare market rallies that we see

now, because we're in a bare market, are

probably going to get faded. And I'm not

trying to sound like a dirty bear on

that. I'm just trying to be transparent

that this is this is typical of a high

volatility period. While you still have

the underlying fundamental uncertainties

moving on top of that, you do not have

the Federal Reserve's wind at your back.

You have the Federal Reserve blowing

against you. Oh, wow. I just refreshed,

by the Okay, we got a bunch more

investments here for House Hack. Uh

thank you by the way to those of you

investing in House Hack. Uh we got uh

the fund raise nonacredited round now

available over at househack.com.

Investors from Canada, Spain,

Netherlands, UK, Switzerland, uh

Germany, Israel, Singapore, Italy. Hey,

good news. No tariffs on investments. Go

check that out over at houseack.com. Uh

but what what you really have to know is

this is the kind of stuff that's

circulating on X. People say this in

January, being a Trump hater has to be

so mentally and physically exhausting

one day ago. Guys, did we accidentally

elect a

complete You could see here how things

have evolved a little bit. Uh, but

anyway, this is just X drama. X is is a

place known for drama. And I want you to

think of me as trying to just bring you

facts and then giving you the ammo to

make smart decisions yourself. Speaking

of which, I'm just now getting Reuters

headlines. And this is really

interesting because you know some people

think Reuters is fake news. Maybe they

are fake news. But listen to this

statement because remember how I just

told you it was great news that Donald

Trump is negotiating directly with Iran.

In fact, I tweeted and I'll show you the

tweet. I tweeted right here. Trump,

we're having direct talks with Iran. I

wrote, "Wow, that's the opposite of what

we heard last week. That's great news."

You can follow me on X, by the way, at

Realme Kevin. Anyway, then I just now as

I'm filming this video, I see the

headline right

here. Iran news. The latest statements

by Trump regarding holding direct talks

with Iran is a compl is is complex and

designed psychological operation to

influence domestic and international

public opinion. Okay, that's an

interesting statement and probably has

some translation errors there, but

basically it sounds like Iran is like,

"Bro, don't imply that all of a sudden

we're bending the knee to you," which

this is what Donald Trump is known for.

Donald Trump is known for taking a small

win like Israel and and then going,

"See, everyone wants to win with me. Why

don't you come win, too?" It's a sales

strategy. Again, I've given this example

before. It's the real estate agent that

has two offers on the table and you're a

potential third offer, but the two

offers they have are complete dog crap.

Like, they're dog crap offers. They're

either low or they have bad terms in

them, and they call you up like this.

Hey, yeah. So, um, we're getting ready

to accept one of these other two offers.

Just wanted to see if you wanted to come

to the table before you miss out on this

opportunity. You see what I'm saying?

Like the salesperson

knows, "Please, please send your offer.

Please, God, these offers suck." But

what they're telling you is the complete

opposite. Yeah, man. You don't want to

miss out on this opportunity. Because if

that salesperson tells you, "Hey, man,

these other offers are dog crap. You're

not going to write your offer." If

Donald Trump is like, "Damn, not even

Israel wants to do a deal with me."

Nobody will. It's sales 101, my friends.

Okay.

So, just really again really want to

thank all of y'all because I saw a

comment yesterday that was very nice.

Somebody said, "Hey, Kevin, I don't

always agree with everything that you

say. Uh, but I really appreciate coming

here for perspective because this is

perspective I can't find anywhere else."

And I appreciate that. And and I just

want you to know that's like that makes

me really happy because that's my goal.

I that's I I want to I want you to come

watch my videos and be like, "Damn, how

come I never heard that from somebody

else? Hm. Never thought about it that

way before." All right. So, now let's

talk about this. Now, I'm going to give

you another perspective. You ready for

this? You're going to hear 20 other

people talk about this same bull crap

today, but nobody's going to tell you

what I'm about to tell you. All right.

So, today we had this 90-day pause

announcement, which was really just Fox

News interviewing Kevin Hasset. Fox News

interviews Kevin Hasset and they're

like,

"Yo, what do you think about Bill Aman's

90-day pause?" And he's like, "Oh, on

the 90-day pause, well," and it kind of

gets talking about how it's not

something they're considering, but

Reuters ran a headline, uh, which was

retweeted on on X, uh, and this is where

we kind of have to be careful sometimes

with the Reuters headlines. I actually

don't know if Reuters ran the headline.

That's what the person on X who posted

it said. They said they got it from

Reuters. I didn't see it. Maybe I missed

it, but I didn't actually see that on a

Reuters headline. May maybe maybe he

did, though. So, anyway, uh, rumors

emerge of a 90-day tariff pause. CN CNBC

reports that Trump is considering the

tariff pause. Markets add $3

trillion. CNBC reports the White House

is unaware of the 90-day tariff pause.

White House calls the tariff pause fake

news. Donald Trump in the press

conference just a little bit ago here,

also, by the way, says, "We're not doing

a pause. We're not pausing." and the S&P

500 rapidly eradicates another $2 half

trillion dollars.

Okay, what is this actually a sign of?

Please, let's just separate ourselves

for a moment from like the volatility of

the stock market. I just want you to

think as as a human, what is this a sign

of? People want it to be over. People

want to believe this is the viable dip

that's going to lead to not only quick

profits, but make up some of the damn

money that they just lost over the last

3 months because people are pissed.

Dude, Nvidia was at 86 bucks this

morning and yeah, it had a nice little

rebound. But it's still way down for all

the poor people who bought it at 130,

140, 150 bucks thinking this was the

company that was never going to go down.

It's still down 30%. 30% of your money.

Poof. It's like you got taxed on your

money 30% then you invested what was

left and then you got taxed another 30%.

Okay, it's it sucks. Yes, that's part of

investing and that's why we say we can

dollar cost average with money that we

don't need with money that's not going

to put us into a margin call or

bankruptcy, right? So lowrisk exposure

and buying a little bit at a time,

diversifying, whatever you want to do,

right? This isn't a finance 101. But my

point is that what we saw there is

evidence that this market is so ready to

be over this tariff drama, but it stands

in contrast to what we're actually

seeing with Donald Trump. See, the

market is like, "Yay, tariffs might be

over." Is is basically the movement that

we saw today. While at the same time,

China is probably dumping treasuries on

us, leading us to see Treasury yields

pop like 42 basis points today on the

10-year, which is

uh 32ish. It was It was 32 basis points.

32 basis points, which is insane. We

went from like 3.89 to 4.21. Insane move

on the 10-year. Why? Well, maybe because

some big people were starting to sell

the 10-year. Possibly China, who's

possibly also weakening their currency.

Their retaliatory tariffs have pissed

Donald Trump off. Donald Trump is

escalating the trade war. Not saying

we're going to pause, saying we're

actually going to be more aggressive,

that 00 isn't enough, that we want more

than that. That's what Donald Trump is

saying. But markets are like, "Yay, we

might get a pause." It's short covering.

This is a short covering moment in a

high volatility environment. And Larry

Frink is right. There is the potential

that we are going to continue to trend

down because frankly, we don't yet know

what's going to happen with the economy

or the consumer. And the Federal Reserve

is a long way away from actually

flipping. Consider the way A&Z puts it.

A&Z does the following. They have this

letter out. They say following the

president's tariff announcements on

April 2nd, US recession risks have

escalated. The speed and magnitude of

the sell-off in the stock market and

associated inversion of the yield curve

reflects intensified anxiety about

rising prices, falling demand and supply

chain disruptions. Economic uncertainty

has jumped and that too can lead to

reduced household consumption and

business investment. Okay, this leaves

GDP vulnerable to downside risks and

downside forward indicators uh for

basically recession. But also look at

this. Uh TS Lombard says a consumer

squeeze is on the way. US profits will

go down and even if companies can

protect their margins by raising prices,

they're still going to end up having

weaker sales. And that's going to lead

to another round of pain. In addition to

that, you should expect a delay between

how quickly the labor market

deteriorates and when the Federal

Reserve actually bails out markets for

real. Until that happens, we could face

more pain. Joe, who knows? I hope we're

at a bottom, but it doesn't seem like

we're close to it right now, especially

with the talk that we're seeing from

Trump. It's not good. Now, I will say

something that is good is that Elon Musk

is now retweeting videos from Milton

Freriedman talking about how bad tariffs

are. And I could not be happier about

this. We knew that Elon Musk was going

silent on tariffs because he probably

disagrees with

tariffs. But now he's retweeting Milton

Freriedman who's a staunch free trader

and a capitalist and it's a sign that

Elon Musk is now vocalizing his

opposition to terrorists. Maybe that's

what we need. Elon Musk is also

suggesting that we need free trade

between the United States and Europe. I

agree. But even the European Union is

thinking about issuing a 25% retaliatory

tariff starting in May uh against the

United States against certain parts uh

you know that we trade with on May 16th

from the EU Commission to the United

States. Uh and and this again is a sign

of an escalation rather than a

deescalation. So we're still in

escalation phase right now. Credit

markets though are signaling no sign of

economic stress and high yields are

basically pricing in zero chance of a

recession. So the question is, are

credit markets right and are we not

going to have a recession or have we not

actually hit the credit shock yet? Well,

according to the VIX charts, remember

what we saw in 2007 and how that led up

to the disaster of Lehman Brothers and

the Lehman Brothers moment. And then of

course 6 months later, the Fed comes in

to bail out markets. All right, so what

are we seeing right now? Well, markets

are pricing in two full rate cuts by

July 30th, three by Halloween, and 3.7

by December 10th. In my opinion, we

might not get any rates. And I'm a

staunch watcher of the Fed, but with,

you know, somebody asked me in the

course member liveream this morning,

right after somebody was asking me about

house hack, actually, I think it was

because they wanted to invest in house

hack. I can't remember, but anyway,

house hack.com. Anyway, in the course

member live stream, somebody asked me,

Kevin, like are tariffs transitory?

The the issue here is there it's very

complicated because see we could say all

right we're going to impose a 10% tariff

uh on all trade with China and then

we'll have a 10% probably at most

transitory bump right and that'll feed

through the system so maybe that only

results in you know 2.5% of consumer

prices going up but if tariffs are so

high that we're at 64% plus maybe

another 50% retaliatory to retaliatory

tariffs then what we're really doing is

we're shutting down trade with that

economy Donald Trump literally just said

in his meeting, "If people don't make

deals with the United States, they will

not trade with

America." Great. So, what happens when

you have to rebuild trade from

scratch? Inflation becomes less than

transitory. It's actually going to take

years, potentially 5 years of rising

prices while supply chains are rebuilt.

Now you could zoom out over the long

term you know 20 years you'll be able to

look at COVID and go ah yeah inflation

was transitory for

co sure we had a bump in inflation and

came down price levels stayed high

unless there's a big recession and price

levels come back down price levels will

stay high but yeah the actual gain in

prices will fade away in a transitory

nature the same could be true of tariffs

but the higher the tariff amount the

longer it is small tariff absorbed right

away small bump in the road 2018 18

style tariff. Buy the dip. Forget about

it. This This is a great reset level of

tariffs and nobody knows what the hell

is going to happen. Why not advertise

these things that you told us here? I

feel like nobody else knows about this.

We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.